[American leaders] don’t think the balance of power matters any more…. If you think we’ve had trouble with the Russians, just wait for the trouble we are going to have with the Chinese. I am very popular in China. I go to China quite often. I usually start my talks by saying, ‘It’s good to be back among my people.’ Because when I get to China I’m intellectually more at home there than I am in Washington….
Professor John Mearsheimer, 2016
Will there be a war over Ukraine? Have recent negotiations opened a path to peace? Unfortunately, the diplomats have achieved very little. The White House says no further talks with Russia have been planned.[i] Worse yet, American intelligence officials say that Russia is setting up a pretext to invade Ukraine. On 14 January Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said, “Without getting into too much detail, we do have information that indicates Russia is already working actively to create a pretext for a potential invasion…. In fact, we have information that they have prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct what we call a ‘false flag operation’; an operation designed to look like an attack on … Russian-speaking people … as an excuse to go in.”[ii]
Do countries carry out false flag attacks to justify invasions? Of course, they do. On the Eve of Nazi Germany’s invasion of Poland in 1939, a small group of German operatives dressed in Polish uniforms seized the Gleiwitz radio station and broadcast a short anti-German message in Polish. For the sake of realism, prisoners from Dachau concentration camp were dressed in Polish uniforms, murdered, and left at the scene as proof that Polish soldiers had been killed in the attack. Oskar Schindler, played by Liam Neeson in the movie Schindler’s List, provided the Polish uniforms and weapons for this Operation, which went by the bizarre name of Grossmutter gestorbin (Grandmother died).[iii]
According to White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, Moscow has also been preparing a social media disinformation campaign to depict Ukraine as the aggressor. For those who remember, the Kremlin accused tiny Georgia of “aggression against South Ossetia” to justify a full-scale Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained the Russian invasion in terms of a United Nations principle, “the responsibility to protect,” which arose out of the international community’s failure to stop the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. In essence, Lavrov said Georgia was engaged in ethnic cleansing in South Ossettia and Russia had to invade. Ironically, the only ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia that year was conducted against Georgians by South Ossetians.[iv]
Many people in America and Europe believe that the West has unnecessarily provoked Russia. They believe that Russia is the victim of U.S. imperialism and NATO expansionism. As Russian President Vladimir Putin warns U.S. President Joe Biden of a “complete rupture” of relations, conservative talk radio’s Michael Savage suggests that Biden is “picking on Russia.” Tucker Carlson of Fox News has criticized Biden’s reaction to Russian troops deploying to the Ukrainian border. Carlson thinks Biden’s policy is too confrontational. Carlson warned, “Do not discount, no matter how farfetched it would seem, a hot war with Russia.” But Carlson has discounted something more troubling. He has discounted the history of cooperation between Biden and the Russians, Biden and the Chinese, Biden and communists of every stripe. Here is the secret key to what is occurring around the world today.
Those who think Putin is a “nationalist” are mistaken. He is an ally of North Korea, Red China, Cuba, Vietnam, Angola, etc. These are all communist countries. Putin’s Russia has been helping communist countries everywhere. And today, it looks as though communism is ready to steamroll its way to a dominant global position. But the fly in the ointment has been the Ukrainian people’s opposition to the old Soviet structures in their own country.
Is America obligated to defend Ukraine? No. We have no such obligation. Would it be strategically advisable? No. Of course, most Americans sympathize with the Ukrainian people; but defending Ukraine is not possible for several reasons. We do not have the necessary troops. We are committed to defending too many other countries. Furthermore, we have failed to modernize our nuclear forces even as we confront China in the Far East. Worse yet, Americans are divided at home. Last month, three retired U.S. generals “penned an op-ed in The Washington Post calling for the Pentagon to make preparations [to put down] another ‘insurrection’ after the 2024 election.”[v] According to the generals, “With the country still as divided as ever, we must take steps to prepare for the worst.”[vi]
Some patriotic Americans, of course, see Washington, D.C. as the enemy. Some may even view Russia as a potential ally. This has happened because Russian leaders have long pretended they are no longer communist. At the same time, American reds, who present themselves as Democrats, pretend they are at odds with Russia. By misleading everyone about who they are, the communists have achieved a remarkable dominance that is not yet fully recognized. In baseball the players all wear uniforms so we can tell them apart. In the Great Game of today, players from the Red Team sometimes wear Blue Team uniforms. Pitchers from the Red Team have even pitched for the Blue Team. This is how the Red Team has scored one home run after another – gaining control of oil-rich Venezuela, gaining control of mineral-rich South Africa and Congo, breaking the back of U.S. energy independence, overrunning Afghanistan, etc. And now the Red Team is ready to take Ukraine. Moscow need not worry about curve balls or fast balls. Even now, the ball is being lobbed over the plate, nice and easy.
To understand what the Red Team signifies, it is worth revisiting an interview I did with Russian historian Marina Kalashnikova more than a decade ago. I asked Kalashnikova why Moscow was aligning itself with Beijing and other communist countries. She surprised me by saying the primary reason was communist ideology. When I suggested that China was a natural ally for Russian because Russia could supply China’s energy needs, Kalashnikova disagreed. “I would say that the ideological motivation is much stronger,” she countered; “so, I guess that communist principles and ideas bring them together much closer than the energy supply factor.” [vii] Kalashnikova further explained that American analysts “expect one thing and Russia behaves in quite a different way, sticking with their communist ideology. The American ‘audience’ and officials should know that in Russia ideology always prevails.”[viii] (Please note: Kalashnikova and her husband Viktor believed they were poisoned by the Russian state security or the GRU on account of their outspoken views. Marina Kalashnikova died of cancer at a Moscow hospital a few years after my interview with her.)[ix]
I believe Kalashnikova was correct in her assessment of Moscow’s motives. And so, we must reckon with a hidden communist agenda on the part of the Russian government. We must understand that Ukraine, formerly part of the Soviet Union, contains Soviet structures that were left in place to maintain control of that country’s economy and security forces. It is impossible to say how much control these Soviet structures retain today, after the Maidan Revolution of 2014. Certainly, the Kremlin would have to rescue these secret structures if they came under serious threat from pro-Western reformers in Kiev.
Given all this, will Russia invade Ukraine? If the country’s hidden Soviet structures are still in control, no Russian invasion is necessary. On the other hand, open union with Russia must occur sometime in the future. Why not begin the process now? Perhaps the time has come for Moscow Center to assert ownership. According to John Kirby at the Pentagon, “We already have … indications that Russian influence actors are already starting … to fabricate Ukrainian provocations … in both state and social media … to justify … some sort of pretext for incursion.”[x] Kirby then added, “We’ve seen this kind of thing before out of Russia. When there isn’t an actual crisis to suit their needs, they’ll make one up.”[xi]
Evidence for Mobilization
Reporting from Kiev last November, Stéphane Siohan wrote of “speculation about a new Russian military mobilization and the possible risk of an armed offensive against Ukraine.” According to Siohan, despite fears of a Russian invasion, “there is no major alert, no mass mobilization, no call-up of reservists. In fact, one gets the impression that large-scale war takes place in the media and on social media. However, Western and Ukrainian services report a reinforcement of Russian troops on the borders of Ukraine.”[xii]
In 2019, several months before the COVID-19 pandemic began, Emil Avdaliani of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies wrote, “Russia is now considering going back to mass mobilization. The draft system was never, in fact, abrogated after the breakup of the Soviet Union….” Avdaliani further noted, “Recently, the Russian government has been making contradictory statements and policy moves on the subjects of conscription and the role of civilian industry in wartime.” More significantly, he added, “Mass mobilization and the military costs it entails invariably kill Russia’s economy.”[xiii]
The Russians are pushing “the pedal to the metal” in terms of war preparations. They are paying an economic price for all this. There is an old quote, from a Russian general on the eve of World War I: “Mobilization is war.” Videos are now appearing online of young Russian reservists getting on trains. One video, tweeted by Igor Girkin, shows a Russian soldier walking out to the train with his wife and child. The video showed many others, dressed in drab military green, waiting to board the same train.[xiv] Girkin’s Twitter account has many videos of Russian trains moving tanks and APCs. He tweeted a very strange video of unmarked truck convoys “leaving and entering Ukraine on dirt roads in areas where there are no border crossings.”[xv]
It does, indeed, look as though Russia is mobilizing to invade Ukraine. Last April Russian cities were ordered to prepare for mass burials. Orders on “the organization of urgent burial of bodies in wartime” began appearing on the websites of several Russian cities.[xvi] A video from the Surgut City Cemetery, taken last year, clearly shows row after row of freshly dug graves.[xvii] Last month, Russia introduced “regulations to expedite mass burials of those killed during military conflicts.” According to Radio Free Europe, these regulations will take effect on 1 February 2022 and pertain to those “killed during military conflicts or as a result of these conflicts….”[xviii]
If this is all an elaborate deception, what purpose could it serve? Russian leaders deny they are planning to invade Ukraine. Yet all these actions suggest an invasion is coming. What makes all of this even more disturbing, however, is the way in which current Russian mobilizations coincide with Chinese mobilizations, and how both coincide with the ongoing pandemic. Consider, as well, other Russian preparations; for example, Russia has built a considerable underground infrastructure for surviving a nuclear war (see the work of Leon Gouré for details).[xix] Russia has been deploying the new S-500 ABM system for knocking down America missiles and bombers. Russia has new generation hypersonic missiles, more advanced tanks and aircraft, new nuclear warheads and thermobaric bombs. Many of these military game-changers have been deployed recently. Add to this Russian civil defense training in secondary schools. Why would Russia be bluffing?
It is true, of course, that mobilizations have happened before and there was no invasion. But then, we ought to ask what it means when Russia deploys troops to Ukraine’s border while preparing provocations to justify an invasion. Also, what does it mean to dig thousands of graves in anticipation of a bloody war?
NATO vs. Russia
Russia’s experts are undoubtedly trying to determine whether NATO is a serious alliance. When placed under pressure, will NATO fight or fold? Here again, we revisit the situation of 1939 when Hitler asked the question, “Will the British and French defend Poland?” Field Marshal Erich von Manstein wrote in his memoirs that “Poland’s position was hopeless from the start.” And yet, the Western Allies went to war in defense of Poland anyway – lacking the wherewithal to save Poland from Hitler’s panzers. The initial result of defending Poland was devastating for the Allies. Poland was overrun, along with Denmark, Norway, the low countries and France. The Allies had underestimated the German military. The same situation repeats itself today, on a larger map. Ukraine’s military position, like Poland’s in 1939, is hopeless from the start.
At the same time, NATO’s weakness before Russia becomes increasingly evident. The Pentagon knows that the U.S. Army is overstretched with commitments in Asia, the Pacific, and the Middle East. The next largest army in NATO, the Turkish Army, has no direct access to Ukraine because of the Black Sea. The French Army is not ready for war and will not be ready for two or three more years. The Polish Army will be pinned down defending the Sawalki Gap and Bialystok. The other NATO countries hardly count in the equation.
Ukraine’s order of battle shows only two tank brigades. The rest is infantry of various kinds (motorized, mechanized, airborne, etc.). Meanwhile, Russia has deployed a guards tank army on Ukraine’s border. Worse yet, Ukraine’s helicopter and airmobile forces would be useless in a war with Russia, as Ukraine’s air force could never contest the air against Russia. Her helicopters would be massacred, her airmobile and airborne formations would have no mobility. Ukraine’s army, concentrated in eastern Ukraine, would be outflanked and surrounded. However heroic the resistance, the Russians would pocket the bulk of the Ukrainian Army. Surrender would quickly follow.
Does NATO understand this? Does NATO understand that Russia can turn off Europe’s supply of natural gas? And yet, NATO has not given Russia a green light for invading Ukraine. After a week of diplomatic meetings, Russia’s deputy foreign minister characterized present attempts to negotiate as “a dead end.” Neither side is backing down. Russia is baffled by the West’s moralistic posturing. The West is baffled by Russia’s military bullying.
Debunking Mearsheimer’s Analysis
Professor John Mearsheimer, author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, has believed for a long time that the West is making a serious mistake regarding Ukraine – similar to the one made in 1939 by the Western Allies. Mearsheimer sides with Professors Stephen Cohen and Henry Kissinger in saying the crisis in Ukraine is actually the West’s fault. Mearsheimer thinks we ought to appease the aggrieved Russian crocodile. According to Mearsheimer, the West should not have extended NATO eastward to protect nations trampled by Russian imperialism in the past.
But is Russia, as a crocodile, within its rights to swallow Ukraine? Mearsheimer’s argument has nothing to do with rights. It has to do with appetite. And here is the problem with Mearsheimer’s thesis. It is the same problem Churchill saw with Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement policy toward Hitler. Once you feed a country to the crocodile, the crocodile will be hungry for more. What Happens after Russia swallows Ukraine? Is Poland next on the menu? Or Romania? Or the Baltic States? What morsel comes next? At what point do you stop feeding nations to the crocodile?
To this Mearsheimer would say that NATO is also a crocodile. And NATO, he would add, has been nibbling right up to Russia’s border. But the analogy falls apart because NATO was not enlarged through invasions. It was enlarged by small countries seeking protection from Russia. Rather than being a crocodile, NATO is a confederation of crocodile treats. But surely, America is a big bad imperialist crocodile. Right? America is busy toppling dictatorships and setting up democracies. But no. America is the tastiest morsel of them all – its misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan to the contrary notwithstanding.
Mearsheimer insists the West is wrong to blame Putin for everything. Putin, he says, “is not bent on creating a greater Russia.” It is wrong to compare Putin with Hitler. This, says Mearsheimer, “is laughable in the extreme.” Of course, Poland is not laughing, and neither is Ukraine. We do not have to equate Putin with Hitler to see there are reasons for a comparison. After all, Hitler rebuilt Germany’s military even as Putin has rebuilt Russia’s military. Hitler annexed territory in Austria and Czechoslovakia even as Putin annexed territory in Georgia and Ukraine. Is any of this really laughable?
Certainly, the West has confused its democratic presuppositions with morality. The “tyranny of the majority,” as John Stuart Mill argued, can be as oppressive as any dictatorship. Western media and politicians use the term “democracy” as a political cure-all when it is nothing of the kind. As imperfect as Western democracy is, however, none of it justifies a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin may question democracy, but he is no James Madison who questions democracy for the sake of liberty. Writing in Federalist No. 10, Madison wrote “that a pure Democracy … can admit of no cure for the mischiefs of faction. A common passion or interest will … sacrifice the weaker party.” In fact, Putin has always governed Russia on the principle of sacrificing the weaker party to the stronger. Has he not?
Yet Mearsheimer says the West is at fault for the situation in Ukraine. According to Mearsheimer, “The aim of the United States and its European allies is to peel Ukraine away from Russia’s orbit and incorporate it into the West…. To make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. And Russia says, ‘This ain’t happening, period. End of story. And we will do everything we can to make sure it does not happen.’”[xx] There are three key elements in the West’s strategy, says Mearsheimer: (1) NATO expansion; (2) EU expansion; (3) Fostering an Orange Revolution. According to Mearsheimer, “As you all know, the United States runs around the world trying to topple regimes and put in their place democratically elected regimes.” In the tradition of taking pity on the Devil, Mearsheimer warns: “But if you are Vladimir Putin, or if you are part of the leadership in Beijing, when the United States talks about [promoting] democracy … that means toppling your regime. And you won’t be surprised to hear … they don’t like that in Beijing and … Moscow.”[xxi]
Mearsheimer then points to NATO’s final declaration at the Bucharest Summit of 3 April 2008: “NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.” Of course, they did not become members of NATO. Russia warned NATO off by invading Georgia in 2008 and by invading Ukraine in 2014. It is a funny thing, is it not? Ukraine is not afraid of NATO. Ukraine is afraid of Russia. Poland is not afraid of NATO, Poland is afraid of Russia. The Baltic States are afraid of Russia. Georgia is afraid of Russia. Do you suppose they have a good reason to be afraid?
It is Mearsheimer’s proposition that the Russian crocodile is frightened by the tasty morsels adjoining his snout. But how can this be? Russia is the world’s foremost nuclear power. Even if Georgia and Ukraine became NATO countries, NATO could not survive Russia’s nuclear might. How could NATO then threaten Russia?
Meanwhile, Russia has threatened a “military deployment to Cuba and Venezuela.”[xxii] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said he could not exclude the possibility of Russian “military assets” being sent to Latin America if negotiations over Europe fail. Russian deployments to the Western Hemisphere would almost certainly set the stage for Chinese deployments as well. Along these lines, the Russian State Duma deputy Yevgeny Fedorov proposed a nuclear “warning strike” against the United States. This would be to underscore Russian seriousness. “We are not bluffing,” Fedorov is saying. “Russia has the authority to do this.”[xxiii]
Notes and Links
[i] White House says no further talks planned with Russia | Washington Examiner
[iii] Gleiwitz incident – Wikipedia
[iv] Ethnic cleansing of Georgians in South Ossetia – Wikipedia – see, also, Was there a genocide in South Ossetia? – Foreign Policy
[v] Former US Army generals urge Pentagon to prepare for potential civil war – The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)
[vi] Generals Warn Of Divided Military And Possible Civil War In Next U.S. Coup Attempt (yahoo.com)
[vii] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTpe84lGMnY, around the four-minute mark.
[viii] Ibid, starting about the five-minute mark.
[ix] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P54Dj3XAqFM
[xi] Ibid.
[xii] What is known about a Russian military mobilization at the gates of Ukraine? – Archyde
[xiii] 1208-The-Russian-Mass-Mobilization-Concept-Avdaliani-final.pdf (besacenter.org)
[xiv] More videos appeared online of Russian servicemen or reservists at railway stations – russia.liveuamap.com
[xv] IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) / Twitter
[xvi] Russian cities prepare for mass burials as Kremlin amasses troops on Ukrainian borders | Ukraine Today .org – Additional survival tricks (wordpress.com)
[xvii] Mass Graves Being Prepared In Russia – 153 News – Because Censorship Kills
[xviii] Russia Introduces Regulations To Expedite Mass Burials Of Those Killed During Military Conflicts (rferl.org)
[xx] Why is Ukraine the West’s Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer – YouTube
[xxi] Ibid.
[xxii] Russia threatens military deployment to Cuba and Venezuela as diplomacy stalls | Ukraine | The Guardian
[xxiii] State Duma deputy proposed to propose a nuclear strike on the United States Russian news EN – europe-cities.com
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240 responses to “Will Russia Invade Ukraine?”
The problem is the US Federal Government and the silly masses of Americans who live on every breath and word of the corrupt regime.The Average American could care less about the world outside of their own vices and creature comforts. We blink and nod at our own corruption and decadance while grasping our pearls at the ‘reported’ atrocities taking place in locations most could ever find on a map. Peace has been taken from the Earth but waste time warning the Americans that, they dont have the ears to hear it with
ameriKa, ameriKa is fallen is fallen.
We are curently losing this Fourth World War because so many of our Countrymen refuse to believe it is happening here.
“and because we are soft, we evade the horrors of THIS reality by ANY MEANS WE CAN; ideological or chemical; with food stamps and video (political) circus, with liquor and cocaine, with false sciences and false religions; DENIAL oozes from a gutless culture that worships comfort and fashion. The idea of nuclear war is dismissed as unworkable and undoable. People who discuss civil defense are ridiculed. “Shelters do not work,” we say to ourselves. In this way, we contrive to evade, for just a little longer, that horror with heat shield and payload, the mere thought of which is proscribed. Therefore, the future too is proscribed while MANY FACTS AND ESTIMATES ARE NECESSARILY DISTORTED. The typical citizen of today, during the commercial break gives a grunt and perhaps a thought: “I cannot admit of such things, I can do nothing about them anyway. I don’t want to live without Monday Night Football. Besides if i dig a bomb shelter my neighbors will laugh at me.”
That’s us in a a nutshell. We are optimists, yes, but we are OPTIMIST OUT OF WEAKNESS.”
— ‘Origins of The Fourth World War’ J. R. Nyquist
How many military troops are required to conquer a big city, and how many of those troops would be lost in the battle? How many cities can be conquered before unable to conquer another city? Americans don’t go looking for trouble or riot in the streets. Americans sit at home and hand load magnum rounds waiting for trouble to come to them. Is that optimism or confident Realism?
“How many military troops are required to conquer a big city, and how many of those troops would be lost in the battle?” One is to many.
No reasonable person would advocate for global war or even a fist fight. Anyone who does hasn’t been in either.
Modern cities can be easily taken by being surrounded. No need to fight battles in them.
” John Davies”, I wanted to let you know that my last comment wasn’t directed at you, as such. Mr Nyquist is quite capable of cogent replies and civil discussion. Some invested in aspects of his thinking: not so much. I actually have lived in the areas in question, so I believe that my ideas have a fair amount of experiential validity.
For mr Nyquist: but with Berdaeyev, as with most other Russian thinkers, freedom and spirit are ontological qualities, which render the State helpless at its worst and a necessary evil at it’s best. Such evils as the Bourgeoisie and their Capitalism possesses, along with all of the world’s social evils, are not triumphed over by force such as the State has, but by love, personal love expressed communally, without legalism or brute power. ” Autocracy” for us is not the Power of the State, but sovereign and holy Authority which comes from God and has clear spiritual Charismata. Opposed to this, always, is Oligarchy.
And ” official ” Orthodoxy…Many times I’ve noted here the sympathies I have with the Starovery, the ” Old Believers “, and also the Cossack life. This is the Old Russia. President Putin has the legitimate power, but how far can any government go when they all look to leaders like Tsar Peter for inspiration?
So in my criticism of the West, please do not assume that I don’t have a critique of my world, even if those are the same criticisms because of my antipathy towards Westernization.
And in response to ” Greyknight” I am historically interested but divided in sympathy by the Southern Confederacy cause. I know that the intervention of the Tsar in the American Civil War by threatening Britain and France (with the Russian fleets visiting in New York and San Francisco at Lincoln and Seward’s request)so they wouldn’t help the South, was a mistake. But Patton was a bit of a delusional maniac with all his reincarnation talk, etc…
Strannik: The free market is not evil any more than running a dress shop is evil, or investing in a factory. Goods and services are necessary to human existence. Some of the things you revile as evil are neutral in and of themselves. The evil enters in through certain individuals at certain times. But this kind of evil cannot be compared to the evil of a tyrant. Like so many socialists here in America, or like anti-Semites who use the word “Jew” as a scapegoat and metaphor for the rich, your discourse places the evil potentialities of the market above the evil potentialities of the tyrant. This is an error. George Washington warned, “Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, — it is force! Like fire, it is a dangerous servant, and a fearful master; never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action.” In this context, there is no capitalist who rates with the great dictators in terms of destruction and killing. What is most dangerous in what you write, is this notion of demonizing private persons and private property, while sanctifying the dictator. This formula of “personal love expressed communally, does not exist. It is a contradiction in terms. Personal love is personal. A group is not a person. It is, as Kierkegaard suggested, a nullity or a monster. Here you have made an idol of “a dangerous servant, and a fearful master,” imbuing it with holiness when it is in fact an abomination; and this is what an invasion of Ukraine will lead to. Why justify such a horrible thing? It seems that you have deified a “dangerous servant, and fearful master.” The moral quality of someone like Lenin, or Stalin, or Putin, or Mao, is very low. So Russia will invade Ukraine and repressive measures will be adopted, and you say “Hurrah!” Certain people will “disappear.” And you say “Hurrah!” But I shake my head and say there is no justice in it. And worse will come because of it. You will hear Americans say that America is a “Christian” nation, etc. But it is not true. And this untruth is just the mirror image of what you are reciting to me about Russia. In America money is God. In Russia the State is God. But you have this prescriptive fantasy that the Orthodox Church has somehow sanctified Russia, and given legitimacy to Putin, who nonetheless showed himself to be a tyrant when he ordered the assassinations of Anna Politkovskaya and Alexander Litvinenko. To regard Putin as an instrument of God, after that, is obscene. Anna Akhmatova wrote a poetic fragment that translates into English, “Don’t lie to me, don’t lie to me, don’t lie to me, I can’t bear it anymore. In some midnight hymn I live on that shore.” I am waving at you from Akhmatova’s shore. Don’t lie to me.
Off topic, but still important (for those who pay attention): A bit more than half an hour ago, at 7:03 p.m. CET (= 1:03 p.m. EST), the Austrian parliament voted 137 vs. 33 FOR the proposed Covid-vaccine mandate bill.
A cold putsch reminiscent of what Czechoslovakia experienced in 1948 (when Stalin turned that country into a communist one-party state) has been pulled off with gruesome precision. As of this day, January 20, 2022, the nation of Austria as a country under the rule of law, is no more.
As a more than suitable musical illustration, here is Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart’s Requiem (written in his death year of 1791), performed roughly half a century ago in Vienna’s by the Vienna Symphonic Orchestra and Chorus of the Vienna State Opera under Karl Böhm.
Mr. Nyquist is kindly asked to immediately delete any and every poisonous troll comment by these Soviet PIGS who frequent these comments 24/7!
Seliger Karl, bitte für uns und für Österreich!
Jeff, not sure if you can comment, one of the channels that cover the Grand Solar Minimum on youtube has done a explanation on the effect of the Tonga volcanic eruption and how the ash will result in cooling:
@ ROCIOMATAMOROS722: Thank you for your support!
And isn’t it ironic that the Austro-Hungarian monarchy ended with Emperor KARL, that the new so-called First Republic was at first headed by a socialist named KARL Renner (who was also Stalin’s man to be reinstalled in 1945), and that the country is now being crushed by one KARL Nehammer (Nehammer, the sledge hammer, one might argue).
I’m not even sure whether the (once-nominally-conservative) People’s Party fully understands what they are doing here. Certainly, their coalition partner, the “Greens” (who are still the same rabid revolutionary communists that they have always been) know what they are doing! Connections with pharmaceutical companies are more than likely, but on the other hand: Why has the process been so eerily similar to communist takeovers of the past? To Czechoslovakia 1948, or even to Mao’s Cultural Revolution? And it’s internationally coordinated. The same methods and tactics! There can’t be a coincidence. This is all coming from the wind direction of Moscow & Beijing. It’s World October, and yet most people in the West have no clue whatsoever what’s happening.
Can’t help placing here another gem from the era of the First Viennese School (and a most precious one, at that): The famous second movement, Poco Adagio. Cantabile, of Haydn’s string quartet in C major, Hob. III:77, “Emperor”, which then became the official anthem of the Habsburg Empire until its end in 1918. Also, notoriously, this same melody has been in use for Germany’s official anthem ever since 1922, whether during the Weimar Republic, under National Socialism, or ever after. The spirit of the music, however, is Austrian to the core (recording with the legendary Alban Berg Quartet, Vienna):
Hi Jeff!
I like reading your articles however this one, from my point of view, is filled up with many false or half-true statements. I was born in 1949 in Poland and raised there. I speak Russian as well and I’ve been to Russia and Ukraine a few times. I know the current reality there and also the purposely omitted history of that region of the world.
Your article is rather long. I can’t analyze and respond to every statement of yours in my commentary.
Let me focus on the causes of the II World War. I First World War caused a lot of political and social changes to the continent. Some countries fell apart; new ones were created – among them Poland and Czechoslovakia. Although there was hope and happiness in those 2 countries, Russia and Germany were not accepting the outcome of the war! The Russians soon afterwards started plotting how to move westward and the Germans – how to move eastward. In the 30s both countries try to woo Poland and Czechoslovakia to create an alliance and together go against the other one. Neither Czechoslovakia nor Poland wanted their participation in the old German plan/idea : Drunk nach Osten or extending German territory eastward at the cost of Russians and Ukrainians. At the end of 1938 the German knew already that Poland would not join them in a war against the Russians/Soviet Union. Poland tried to fend off war with Germany by forming a military alliance with France and England assuming that the Germans would not dare starting the war. As a matter of fact the Germans clearly stated their plans in Hitler’s Mein Kampf.
The Russians signed a tactical pact with Germany (Ribbentrop-Molotov) dividing Poland in half although both sides knew that it was only a temporary arrangement and sooner or later they would have to fight each other for supremacy in Europe.
Did the Polish people want to join NATO and European Union? Indeed most of them did and generally only for economic reasons because the mistrust of Germany, France and England in Poland was relatively high at that time. At the moment in Poland (and Hungary for example) people make the calculations of benefits and loses of being a member of these 2 organizations and more and more people there are less and less happy about it.
And now – Ukraine. The Ukrainians for a long time – a few centuries wanted to have an independent country free from interference of the Russians, the Poles and the Hungarians. As a matter of fact in most cases neighboring countries don’t coexist peacefully. The Russian particularly tormented the Ukrainians in the 20s, 30s and 40s. Up to 4 million Ukrainians died from artificially created famine (food confiscation) because Ukrainian peasants resisted land collectivization in the 30s; the so called Holodomor. At the present most Ukrainian speaking Ukrainians (not the Russians living there) indeed hate the Russians because of the past events.
The last topic. Will the III World War occur? In my opinion yes because the visions of Globalism – Western ( One Planet, One Race, One Religion as Klaus Schwab says) and Eastern ( Regionalization under control of AI) are not compatible. Personally I claim that the USA will be completely destroyed, Europe mostly and Russia and China partially. Only time will tell….
I may be wrong, but it seems this is another cover up or distraction orchestrated by the US Democrats (and the Chinese CCP) to cover up Bidenstein’s blunders and their lack of. If any false flag occurs, it will be by NATO, not by Russia, but Russia would get the blame.
You are giving those idiots too much credit.
Great entry.
Yesterday I spent another hour laying out the case to someone that Russia is dangerous, they won’t leave us alone, and Russia has no moral claim on Ukraine. He was just totally baffled and had no agreement with me at all. All his talking points were very similar to Mearsheimer. I did it simply out of respect to him because he is one of my most thinking friends on Facebook.
From Russia’s perspective, it seems wise for them to not start a war yet. Better to first wait for China to invade Taiwan, or for a proxy to attack us. Plus they have the WWii blueprint they can follow, they waited for Hitler to kick things off, then invaded Europe w impunity.
Given the question of whether Russia even needs to invade Ukraine, perhaps they are using Ukraine as cover for them to mobilize for a greater war, either w usa, or even a larger land invasion into Europe far beyond ukraine. That one seems perhaps a bit far fetched by why not what do they have those tanks for
Reminds me of Hitler’s comment when he visited Finland, that the Germans had destroyed over 14,000 Soviet tanks in their invasion of Russia. In other words, if I remember correctly, Stalin had more tanks ready to roll westward than existed in the rest of the world, including Germany. What was Stalin planning to do with all those tanks? After all, did he not have an agreement with fellow socialist government to provide a buffer to the west? Or was he planning to double-cross Hitler?
Today we have a similar situation—thousands of tanks of the latest designs massed just east of Ukraine, probably more north and south as well. Ukraine is too small a morsel to justify such a build-up. How is this not preparation for an attempt to take over all of western Europe?
Correction: Hitler told Mannerheim they had destroyed over 34,000 Soviet tanks.
I fear that a greater war has been planned. In fact, I was told about this plan by a GRU defector in 1998. And now, everything we see is consistent with this plan.
Any comment Jeff on the arms that are being shipped to Ukraine via Latvia,Lithuania and Estonia?And why the US/NATO felt the need to advertise this arrangement?Arent the Baltic States in enough peril as it is?Seems like they purposely are providing the Russians a pretext.
Stupidity is the usual explanation for such things. But then, treason is also an explanation. Of course, in this instance, it is probably a combination of both. The West would be devastated by a war now. Russia is ready for war, and China is ready. You do not make war on someone who is ready when you have not even bothered to mobilize.