Who are our enemies, and who are our friends? This question is one of primary importance in the revolution. All past revolutionary struggles in China achieved very little, basically because the revolutionaries were unable to unite their real friends to attack their real enemies.Mao Zedong, founder of Communist China
“Analysis of Classes in Chinese Society”
We have to make sure that we deter China on every front, and Taiwan is obviously critical. But most important, we must deter China in a way that does not unbalance our overall strategic position – which faces Russia in Europe and Iran in the Middle East (not to mention Cuba and Venezuela in the Caribbean). To understand our strategic position, it is worth keeping Chinese Grand Strategy in mind. The debate on Chinese grand strategy is difficult because China has successfully hidden its ultimate grand strategic direction and objectives. And so, we are left judging by actions. But actions can also be misleading. Even invasion preparations can be misleading.
In some sense we are always preparing to refight the last war – World War II. By way of analogy, you could say Beijing’s moves against Hong Kong resemble the Anschluss, the loss of Afghanistan is like the Allies abandoning Czechoslovakia, and now we come to Taiwan, a country we feel compelled to defend just as the French and British were compelled to stand by Poland (even though Poland’s strategic position – like Taiwan’s today – was hopeless).
As we draw these parallels, the Chinese are also drawing parallels; but the Chinese draw different lessons from history than we do. In explaining this I am going to refer to Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian’s secret speech before high-level communist officials, delivered roughly twenty years ago. And indeed, in that speech, Chi compares China to Germany in the 1930s.
In the speech Chi says, “today’s China is alarmingly similar to Germany back then. Both of them regard themselves as the most superior races; both of them have a history of being exploited by foreign powers … both of them have the tradition of worshipping their own authorities; both of them feel they have seriously insufficient living space; both of them raise high the two banners of nationalism and socialism … both of them worship ‘one state, one party, one leader, and one doctrine.’”
But here the comparison ends. And it is worthwhile to follow Chi’s quoting of Jaing Zemin as saying: “Germany belongs to pediatrics” – too trivial to be compared with China. “How large is Germany’s population,” asked Chi. Trivial. How big is its territory? Trivial. How many enemies did Germany kill? Trivial compared to the killing of the Beijing regime. How long did Nazi Germany last? Twelve years. Trivial!
Chi says there are three lessons to be learned from the German experience of World War II. The three lessons are: “Firmly grasp the country’s living space; firmly grasp the Party’s control over the nation; and firmly grasp the general direction toward becoming the ‘lord of the earth.’”
First, says Chi, living space is the regime’s central focus, though this cannot be publicly admitted because it would associate China with Nazi Germany in the eyes of the world and reinforce the view that China is a threat. So, this focus must remain secret.
Second, the Communist Party must teach the Chinese people to “go out” and find “new lands” in order to justify its leadership position and hold firmly to power. Chi states, “Comrade Mao Zedong said that if we could lead the Chinese people outside of China, resolving the lack of living space in China, the Chinese people will support us.”
Third, for China to become the “lord of the earth,” it is necessary, said Chi, “to hold firmly onto the big ‘issue of America.’ This appears to be shocking, but the logic is actually very simple.”
Chi underscores his point with the following rhetorical question: “Would the United States allow us to go out to gain new living space? First, if the United States is firm in blocking us, it is hard for us to do anything significant to Taiwan, Vietnam, India, or even Japan, [so] how much more living space can we get? Very trivial! Only countries like the United States, Canada and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for mass colonization.”
“Therefore,” noted General Chi, “solving the ‘issue of America’ is the key to solving all other issues. First, this makes it possible for us to have many people migrate there and even establish another China under the leadership of the CCP.”
In this strategic context, China is understandably secretive about its goals. Chi stated, “We also must never forget what Comrade [Deng] Xiaoping emphasized: ‘Refrain from revealing ambitions and put others off the track.’ The hidden message is: we must put up with America; we must conceal our ultimate goals, hide our capabilities, and await the opportunity.”
He then discussed launching a biological war against the United States in the future. He called this “using special means to ‘clean up’ America…” The last problem, said General Chi, is “firmly seizing the preparations for military battle.” And he then mentioned Taiwan: “Our military battle preparation appears to aim at Taiwan but in fact is aimed at the United States, and the preparation is far beyond the scope of attacking aircraft carriers or satellites.”
What I conclude from this is that China’s threat to Taiwan craves this larger strategic context. Furthermore, the testimony of the GRU defector, Colonel Stanislav Lunev must not be ignored. Lunev, who spoke fluent Mandarin and worked in China, knew of a secret post-Soviet military agreement with China about a future war against the United States in which Russia would acquire Alaska and China would acquire the lower 48 states. Thus, we must not take our eyes off the ball. America is China’s main target. Taiwan may be a stepping stone, or a diversion. Therefore, our preparations must include a strengthening here in North America – the bolstering of strategic defenses and our strategic deterrent.
Notes and Links
It is my thesis that China has a grand strategy and we have failed to see what it is. China is a collective party dictatorship run by committees and party think tanks that have been working out the country’s grand strategy for decades. Our blindness to grand strategy, and our denial of a grand strategy is, itself, essential to the success of Chinese grand strategy.
More than two years ago The National Interest published an article titled “China’s Big Mistake: It Thinks It Can Beat America in a War” – the article argues that China mistakenly assumes it can “launch an attack on China’s neighbors without first knocking out U.S. forces.”[i] The people who wrote the article are taking Chinese statements, designed for their consumption, at face value. They are not only being deceived, but they are broadcasting their stupidity to everyone who reads their publication. – The National Interest, China’s Big Mistake: It Thinks It Can Beat America In a War | The National Interest
As reported in The U.S. Sun, Chinese military expert Du Wenlong warned that the U.S. could not stop a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan and Japan would be nuked if it attempted to interfere. On a Chinese video channel, “allegedly approved by the Chinese Communist Party” and tied to the People’s Liberation Army, the narrator of a video (now deleted) said, “We will use nuclear bombs first. We will use nuclear bombs continuously. We will do this until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time. We will liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares to intervene by force – even if it only deploys one soldier, one plane or one ship – we will not only return fire but also wage full-scale war against Japan itself.” The Japanese were not intimidated. Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso said Japan would defend Taiwan in alliance with the USA.[ii] – WW3 fears as China boasts US would have ‘no chance’ stopping invasion of Taiwan (the-sun.com)
The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian, The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian – J.R. Nyquist Blog (jrnyquist.blog).
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