The Russians have taken the European nineteenth century at its word, understood its core ideas and drawn the ultimate conclusions from its cultural premises. We always live in the eye of the more radical brother, who compels us to draw the practical conclusion and pursue it to the end. Altogether … one thing is certain: that the anti-religion of technicity has been put into practice on Russian soil, that there a state arose which is more intensely statist than any ruled by the absolute princes….
Carl Schmitt
A few years ago, there was a slogan going the rounds in Kiev: “We were searching for Europe and we found Ukraine.” Many Ukrainians were sick of Soviet-style kleptocrats governing them with Moscow’s blessing. Better to go with Europe, whatever its flaws. Life as a Kremlin plaything is no life at all. On his side, Putin denied that Ukraine was even a country. “There is no such country,” he said. They cannot be independent of Moscow. Russian propagandists have said that Ukraine is actually two countries: (1) the Ukrainian-speaking west and (2) the Russian-speaking east. Yaroslav Hrytsak, a Ukrainian historian, has called this a heuristic simplification and gross misinterpretation. According to Mychailo Wynnyckyj, “This dichotomous Ukraine never really existed.”[i]
Most nations have ethnic divisions. Yet they remain nations. Wynnyckyj explained Ukraine’s situation as follows: “Contrary to historiographic myths propagated by Russian nationalist ideologues … by the end of 2014 it had become patently obvious that Ukrainians were one people, and proud of it.”[ii] Like America in the American Revolution, Ukraine is being born out of a struggle for freedom – out of a war for independence. This war for independence has been going on for eight long years. Only now it has entered an intensely violent phase.
Moscow seeks to prevent Ukrainian independence while consolidating its military position in Eastern Europe. Moscow’s objectives have nothing to do with de-nazifying Ukraine. The rulers in Moscow want to reassemble the Soviet Union; and Ukraine was a key republic in that Union. Ukraine is also a stepping stone to something more. Imagine, if you will, the nuclear missile power of Russia joined with the military manpower and industrial power of China. To fully activate this combination, Russia must conquer Ukraine. Russia must place its land forces directly on NATO’s border.
As of this writing, the war in Ukraine is eight weeks old. Ukrainian cities remain under bombardment from missiles and artillery. New offensive operations have begun. Moscow accepts further losses through frontal assaults on fixed positions. The Russian media blames NATO and America for the Ukrainian resistance. We are told to cut off the Ukrainians in their hour of need. If we don’t, says Moscow, there will be “unpredictable consequences.” On the streets of Moscow Russian citizens snarl about America’s war against their country. Why not bomb Washington, D.C.?
Russian authorities do not credit the Ukrainian people with fierce resistance. They would rather not admit that Ukraine sank Russia’s guided missile cruiser, Moscva. The regime in Kiev, after all, is an American “puppet regime.” One scans the pages of history to find puppets who fight so hard. No, indeed, Moscow says Russia has failed to win the war because of NATO and America. Russians are not allowed to see the issue of freedom in all this. They are not allowed to say there is an ongoing attempt to put the Soviet Union back in place. In 2014 the Ukrainian people pulled down hundreds of statues of Soviet founder Vladimir Lenin. Today the Russian invaders are putting up new statues of Lenin. As they do this, the Russians follow the methods of Stalin, arresting tens of thousands of people, deporting Ukrainians to parts unknown. Under Stalin, disobedience led to death or imprisonment. Today, under Putin, disobedience once again leads to death or imprisonment.
On Russian state television, Vladimir Solovyov recently suggested that the Ukraine conflict will soon lead to a war “against Europe and the world.” He explained that “the special military operation is entering a new stage…. We’ll see not only NATO weapons being drawn into this, but also their operators.” Solovyov said that Russia was “starting to wage war against NATO countries. We’ll be grinding up NATO’s war machine as well as the citizens of NATO countries.” Solovyov added, “When this operation concludes, NATO will have to ask itself: ‘Do we have what we need to defend ourselves? Do we have the people to defend ourselves?’ And there will be no mercy. There will be no mercy.”[iii]
Russia has three times the population of Ukraine. The outcome of the war should not be in doubt. Yet the outcome is in doubt; that is, unless Russia uses nuclear weapons. Some observers think that nuclear war is now inevitable. If Russia wants to win the war, Russia must use its nuclear weapons. In terms of casualties, the Ukrainian Army has inflicted a five-to-one loss ratio on the Russians. This figure would be incredible except that it is a familiar statistic. It is the same loss ratio that Moscow suffered in many battles of the Russian Civil War, of the Winter War against Finland in 1939-40, and in the Great Patriot War.[iv]
Russia cannot win a conventional war against NATO. The best Russian generals understood this long ago. The Russian military system remains Soviet. Its administrative system is not modern in the Western sense. It is inefficient, wasteful of men and materiel. Since 2014 the Ukrainian military has adopted Western administrative methods. And so, the casualty ratio is not hard to account for. While Russia remains a corrupt kleptocracy, Ukraine has been evolving toward official accountability. In the Ukrainian military, information flows in two directions: up the chain of command and down the chain of command. Meanwhile, in Russia, the leaders still do not listen, or do not care to listen, when told what they do not want to hear. Subordinates, knowing the messenger will be shot, withhold the truth from their superiors. The superiors, in their turn, give the troops unrealistic tasks which no army could have carried out successfully under the circumstances. What we see in Russia today is the failure of the administrative system. It is a moral failure, an intellectual failure, and a political failure. Asiatic feudalism, dressed in the garb of a modern state, backed by hidden communist structures, cannot compete with a rule-based order in which people actually follow the rules.
Who Wants Nuclear War?
As modern war has become more complex, moving closer to the real-time battle concept, the old Soviet methods of fighting (which are still used by Russia) have fallen further and further behind. In World War II the Soviet Army predicated itself on a peculiar Leninist reading of Carl von Clausewitz. This produced high losses and frequent battlefield defeats. Today we find the situation of Russia has not changed.
Problems in the Russian land forces doubtless reflect similar problems in the Chinese land forces; and only one military solution presents itself. It is the solution that Soviet Marshal V.D. Sokolovskii outlined in the early 1960s. Nuclear rocket weapons, noted Sokolovskii, will be the decisive weapons of the next world war. In his classic volume, Soviet Military Strategy, we find the following analysis: “In modern warfare, nuclear weapons can be employed for various missions: strategic, operational, and tactical. From a purely military point of view, a nuclear weapon is incomparably more effective than a conventional weapon. It permits the execution of military missions in a considerably shorter time than was possible in past wars. For this reason, experts believe that the nuclear weapon is the most powerful and effective instrument by which to destroy an opponent in any type of operation, or in war as a whole.”[v]
According to Sokolovkii’s text, Strategic missile weapons “can, if necessary, be used to carry out the main missions of war: the destruction of the aggressor’s means of nuclear attack – the basis of his military power – and the defeat of the main formations of his armed forces, as well as the destruction of the basic, vitally important enemy targets.”[vi] If a war began between the socialist camp and NATO, Sokolovskii’s text says, “A nuclear war would, in an instant, spread over the entire globe.”[vii]
Sokolovskii’s nuclear warfighting legacy was passed along to Marshals Andrei Grechko and Nikolai Ogarkov. In September 1984, after the Soviet Union had come close to initiating a global nuclear war during the West’s Able Archer 83 exercises,[viii] Marshal Ogarkov was removed as Chief of the General Staff. Many Soviet generals were purged in the years that followed. We can now see, in retrospect, that a shift in Soviet policy was taking place. The following year, Mikhail Gorbachev became General Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee. Nuclear world war was taken off the table. Global subversion through Soviet liberalization became the focus of Moscow’s strategy; or, as Soviet strategist Georgi Arbatov explained, Moscow would use the “secret weapon” of taking away America’s “image of the enemy” – by taking away the Communist Party Soviet Union.[ix]
The liberalization of the Soviet bloc under Gorbachev was calculated to undermine Western anti-communism. By eliminating the so-called “Soviet threat,” the Marxist left – under new slogans and guises – could advance to power in Washington and throughout Europe. But the strategy partly backfired, especially in the Soviet Union itself. Especially in Ukraine. While communism stealthily advanced inside Western institutions, it was gradually peeled back in the Baltic States, Georgia, and Ukraine. Inevitably, if they hoped to bring the old Soviet Union back, Russian authorities would have to find a pretext for retaking Ukraine. Even so, Moscow’s agent networks in Washington and Brussels would not be in a position to help Moscow without giving themselves away. In fact, the Marxist left in America was compelled to camouflage itself by accusing Donald Trump and his followers of being Russian agents. (See my commentary on this during a recent episode of the Glazov Gang.)
Because Gorbachev’s strategy of “controlled” liberalization went awry, leading to genuine liberalizations in former communist countries, the ghost of Marshal Sokolovskii would rear its head. The CPSU strategists had fooled themselves, the ghost would say. What had Moscow’s communist “friends” in the West managed to do? Talk, talk, talk. They had not broken up NATO. They had not disarmed America. Of course, America’s nuclear arsenal was approaching the end of its shelf live. Even so, you must wage a nuclear war to finish them off. You cannot do this without a nuclear war!
There is no reason for Russia to despair over its losses in Ukraine. After all, Moscow’s mistakes are nothing compared with Washington’s blunders. America has built up Red China for the last thirty years. The communist bloc is not without war-winning advantages. And look who we have put into the White House! Look who the German chancellor is! The Soviet Union will be put back together. Vladimir Lenin’s statues will go back into place throughout Ukraine.
Were this but a fantasy! Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was undertaken to restore the Soviet Union. Zelensky even suggested that Putin wanted to be remembered as a second Lenin by aiming for his own “mausoleum.” In explaining why Putin invaded Ukraine, Zelensky told Russian journalists during a Zoom call, “There are a lot of reasons he acts this way. He has ambitions to bring the Soviet Union back….” But, of course, added Zelensky, “I don’t think it is his mistake – it’s the mistake of those around him. He’s in that circle, you know.”[x]
Yes. We know what circle Zelensky is referring to. It is that circle of strategists that has shifted away from Andropov and Gorbachev’s strategy of perestroika back towards Sokolovskii’s strategy of war. The pendulum of false democratization and false liberalization now swings back toward open confrontation. Moscow’s charm offensives achieved all they could achieve in the thirty years allotted. The U.S. Federal Government is now full of leftist radicals. America’s nuclear arsenal is old and shabby. No more charm is needed. Now the time has come for destructive war. To kill and destroy is Moscow’s recourse. The only question is, “On what scale?”
The Origins of Gorbachev’s Strategy
David Pryce-Jones once asked why the Soviet Union gave up its position in Central and Eastern Europe without recompense in 1989-91. Valentin Falin, the last head of the Central Committee CPSU International Department, gave Jones the following reply: “We are still waiting for an answer from Gorbachev…. He confided in no one. He spoke on the phone directly to [German Chancellor] Kohl.”[xi]u
The mystery deepens further when we look at other testimony. Gorbachev and his mentor, KGB Chairman Andropov, had spent a great deal of effort weakening the leadership of the Soviet armed forces. Talented generals were removed from top positions in the 1980s. Mediocrities from the Asian military districts were brought in. Why? Gorbachev and Andropov decided to oppose the Soviet military’s plans for nuclear war because they had a very different plan to follow – a KGB-centered plan. They were going to liberalize the Eastern Bloc so that their agent networks in the West could advance into power. They were pursuing a strategy of active subversion. One of the architects of this subversion strategy was Mikhail Andreyevich Suslov, godfather of the USSR’s “collective leadership.”
In retrospect, it appears that the collapse of communism and the “miracle” of German reunification in 1990 owed much to Suslov. It appears that Gorbachev was chosen by Suslov to play a very special role. Consider a strange little meeting that was arranged by Suslov in September 1978 at an obscure railway station in southern Russia. According to Arkady Vaksberg, at Mineralnye Vody “there took place the now famous meeting of the four party general secretaries who succeeded one another: Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko and Gorbachev….”[xii] It is incredible, indeed, that Suslov put these four men together, in 1978. Think of it! Andropov would succeed Brezhnev, Chernenko would succeed Andropov, and Gorbachev would succeed Chernenko. What were the odds this was pure chance? “Today,” wrote Vaksberg, “only Gorbachev could say how the meeting went, but there can be no doubt it was decisive.”[xiii]
Suslov had long been the eminence grise of the Kremlin. Some might say he had been the best strategist and ablest Soviet politician of his day. At least one Russian commentator suggested that Stalin had singled out the young Suslov as his successor. Given Suslov’s intellectual horsepower and influence, it is no wonder that he was chosen in 1956 as Brezhnev’s deputy when Brezhnev brought the USSR’s top strategists together under the auspices of a “special committee” tasked to remake Soviet strategy for the nuclear age.[xiv] The idea of fighting and winning a nuclear war was then proposed by Marshal V.D. Sokolovskii even as the “feign weakness” strategy of the KGB was championed by Gen. Nikolai Mironov, later to be head of the Party Administrative Organs. Everything that happened later can be traced back to Brezhnev and Suslov’s work in 1956-57. For those watching Gorbachev’s bizarre concessions and retreats from 1989-91, nothing can be understood without reference to Lenin’s 1922 retreat into capitalism and Felix Dzerzhinsky’s Operation Trust, a secret police operation to set up a fake anti-communist resistance organization. These and other strategies were updated, adopted and ratified in 1957 by the Soviet Union on Brezhnev and Suslov’s recommendations.
Only by referring to such strategies will we ever understand why Gorbachev willfully collapsed East Germany, the Warsaw Pact Alliance and the Soviet Union; or why he purged his own generals and weakened his own military. Properly understood, this maneuver is what brought the Clinton’s, Obama and Biden to power in Washington. It is what has led to the obsolescence of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. It is the foundation of what we now call the Deep State and the transfer of Communist Party billions to the West for the most massive and coordinated subversion operation of all.
Beware of communists bearing gifts. In 1990, however, all wariness was set aside. The West wanted to take its instant winnings and declare victory. Thus, in July 1990 Gorbachev and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl met at a hunting lodge in the Caucasus. During this summit meeting Gorbachev unequivocally accepted that the United Germany would be a NATO country. Now ask yourself: Why would the leader of the International Communist Movement do such a thing?
Gorbachev could have easily disallowed German unification on the condition that Germany would drop out of NATO. Yet no conditions were placed on German sovereignty by Gorbachev. Thus, the Soviet leader paved the way for NATO’s eastward advance. Moscow was under no pressure to make any of the concessions Gorbachev made. Yet Gorbachev gladly adhered to the principle that sovereign nations had the right to make to whatever alliances they wanted to. And Gorbachev did this because the West was primed for subversion.
NATO had agreed, in advance of the Gorbachev-Kohl meeting, to abandon its strategy of a “forward defense” in Europe. The West was glad to see tensions reduced. The West was overjoyed at the prospect of a “peace dividend.” As Wisla Suraska wrote in 1998, “It was as if the United States won the cold war by accident, in the course of helping the Germans to unite.”[xv]
Technically, the Cold War ended on 30 May 1990, when Gorbachev visited Washington. At that meeting President George H.W. Bush “argued that under the Helsinki principles all nations had the right to choose their own alliances. Gorbachev agreed.”[xvi] Of course, the Americans were surprised by this agreement. Why did the Soviet leader agree to this? At the time Gorbachev’s deputies shuffled about nervously, offering cautionary gestures. Gorbachev asked them why Germany could not belong to NATO?
The only shrewd observer of this scene was French President Francois Mitterrand, who remarked that Gorbachev was undoubtedly thinking of neutralizing the united Germany through the left-wing agitation of the peace movement. As Mitterrand was a socialist, he knew what Gorbachev was really thinking. The left in Europe would be energized. Gorbachev intentionally shoved the Soviet military into Siberian cold storage. By this maneuver he was opening a hidden door – the hidden door of communist subversion across five continents.
The West’s weakness is now evident. Russia and China have penetrated all the West’s major institutions. Whatever missteps Russia has made in Ukraine, the military school of Sokolovskii can deliver victory through nuclear strikes. Perestroika has done its work. The West was charmed not only by Gorbachev, but by Deng Xiaoping. The moment has come for the great harvest.
So here we are, in April 2022. Marshal Sokolovskii’s ghost is standing behind Vladimir Putin, whispering in his ear. The ghost is quoting Nikita Khrushchev’s words: “Now we need press only one button and … whole cities will be blown up, and whole countries can be destroyed. Such is the enormous destructive power of modern weapons….”[xvii]
Notes and Links
The opening quotation is from Carl Schmitt’s Concept of the Political, p. 81, of the University of Chicago’s expanded edition.
[i] Mychailo Wynnyckyj, Ukraine’s Maidan, Russia’s War: A Chronicle and Analysis of the Revolution of Dignity (Stuttgart: Ibidem Press, 2019), p. 243.
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Russian State TV Talks of ‘War Against Europe and the World’ After Ukraine (msn.com).
[iv] John Mosier, Deathride: Hitler vs. Stalin (Kindle Edition).
[v] V.D. Sokolovskii, Rand trans., Soviet Miltiary Strategy, p. 297.
[vi] Ibid, p. 298.
[vii] Ibid, p .299.
[viii] Able Archer 83: The Secret History | Wilson Center. I was told by a former KGB official that the military used the Able Archer 83 exercise as an excuse to launch a nuclear preemptive strike on the West. Andropov became suspicious of the military’s intentions toward the KGB and Communist Party, and canceled military preparations for a strike. A CIA official from the American side told me that we would have been caught completely by surprise had the attack been launched.
[ix] Jean Davidson, “UCI Scientists Told Moscow’s Aim Is to Deprive U.S. of Foe.” Los Angeles Times, 12 December, 1988.
[x] https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/28/it-s-not-just-a-war-it-s-much-worse
[xi] David Pryce-Jones, The War That Never Was: The Fall of the Soviet Empire, 1985-1991 (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, p. 292.
[xii] Arkady Vaksberg, trans. John and Elizabeth Roberts, The Soviet Mafia: An Expose of Organized Crime in the USSR (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1991), p. 39.
[xiii] Ibid.
[xiv] Joseph D. Douglass, Jr., Red Cocaine: The Drugging of America (Atlanta: Clarion House, 1990), p. 48.
[xv] Wisla Suraska, How the Soviet Union Disappeared (Duke University Press, 1998), p. 87.
[xvi] Ibid.
[xvii] Sokolovskii, p. 301.
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Trump needs to read this or speak with Mr. Nyquist. Wonder if any of our leaders, those who aren’t traitors, really understand the point of this article.
The people that need to listen to Jeff, and others, aren’t listening to anyone except the voices in their heads. The left has gone utterly idiotic and should be in rubber lined rooms and not out running loose.
Jeff, thank you for putting the puzzle pieces together in your essay. It seems that the West’s Deep States have been shaped in no small measure by the USSR’s and China’s Deep Fakes. And so now we in the West have domestic fronts to contend with as well as fronts overseas.
Reality check: I’ve run across claims that Ukraine is instituting social credit systems and like measures that suggest Zelensky’s merely substituting one form of “Reset” tyranny for another. Are these claims credible, or just more propaganda muddying the waters?
I have no information about Ukraine adopting such totalitarian measures. What is your source for this?
Hi Jeff,
Did some fact-checking on my own, and the claim appears to be false. Quoting from the website logically.ai:
“Numerous posts on social media are falsely claiming that the Ukrainian government has created a social credit system as part of the Great Reset conspiracy, which combines Universal Basic Income, a digital identity, and a vaccine passport in the Ukrainian app ‘Diia.’
The app, which launched in April 2021, does allow Ukrainian citizens to access a range of important official documents, such as their birth certificate, ID card, and vaccine passport, but the app is not linked to any kind of social credit system or UBI. There has been no announcement of any such financial program in Ukrainian press releases or on Ukrainian social media accounts.”
The post is dismissive of “The Great Reset” but still, I would need to see some compelling info before accepting this particular claim about Ukraine as true. Worth tracking since the app could be linked to a social media account down the road.
Those who are lying about Ukraine have chosen to support the Russian side in this war. As Russia tells all manner of lies about Ukraine, we should not be surprised to find Russian shills doing the same. Slandering people who are fighting for their existence is despicable. Those who advance Moscow’s lies are morally responsible for what they are saying.
I doubt Putin can win in Ukraine without nukes. But, he would be an utter fool to use nukes. If he wants the nonproliferation treaty to be a dead issue, that would be a one way street to that end.
There is coming a time when nukes will be launched, and Russia’s existence will end at that point. because of the reopening of the 2014 invasion, Putin has no good choices.
Russia’s nuclear weapons and strategic rockets are thirty years ahead of America’s. Russia does not necessarily lose a nuclear war. It loses because of the moral consequences, and because of the economic consequences when humanity sinks back 100 years.
What will happen depends on whether or not the maintenance funds were stolen, or used as they were supposed to be. Although Putin has certainly mouthed off a lot about his nukes, I have my doubts they will perform any better than his Army. The minute Russia launches nukes, it has lost. Such a launch will not go unanswered.
Do you mean Russia must use nuclear weapons in Ukraine to prevail in defeating Ukraine? I had thought that Russia could succeed with its goal for Ukraine through conventional warfare, eventually, given its numbers advantage. I had thought that nukes would come into play for an open attack on NATO countries. In fact, I had thought that when Russia directly unleashes a broader war on NATO, it would hit the U.S. first, to deter or pre-empt a nuclear attack from us. But these aren’t my original thoughts – it’s what I’ve gleaned. Very interested if the smart take sees nuclear weapons as necessary for Russia to meet its goals for Ukraine.
Some people, whose judgment I trust, are beginning to say that Russia may not win this war without using nuclear weapons.
I believe Putin is beginning to understand the implications if Russia cannot gain the upper hand in Ukraine. I see a few possibilities none of them pleasant:
1) the war turns into an insurgency like both Afghanistan wars, a long, bloody, ultimately unsuccessful outcome. However I do not believe Russia has the patience or resources to fight this conflict for years.
2) Russia loses the war in the near future, at which point they become much more unpredictable and dangerous.
But Putin finds himself in a sort of catch 22 moment at the point we are at now. Sort of dated if you do dammed if you don’t. Which leads me to the last possibility. Which I find horrific…
3) Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This will either cause Ukraine’s defeat, or a nato intervention, but I tend to think the former is most likely. I believe we will go to a state of high alert, it will be on the news for years, but ultimately we will do nothing to stop them. However die hard groups will fight Russia for a long time to come.
Should have listened to Patton, perhaps…
It seems that Russia will act unpredictably, win or lose in Ukraine.
If nuclear war breaks out, what would the technology be like in a post-war world?
Would we go back to the stone age, by how many years would we probably be set back by?
Putin did protest the sanctions, but it didn’t stop him. Rather he mentioned in a public address that Russians must become self sufficient, as he had continually been advocating all along. As Russia becomes increasingly economically isolated, what’s the difference if the rest of the World is gone? How is that any different then the Globalist’s depopulation agenda? Last man standing gets all the World’s limited resources. As for moral consequences, in answer to whom? Communists are atheist, da?
The Globalist depopulation agenda is integral to the Russian agenda. Look at Gorbachev’s Green Cross movement. Environmentalism has been a Trojan Horse of the communist movement and of Moscow for more than forty years. The Russian special services continue to manipulate this agenda to destroy the West. None of this environmentalism applies to communist countries or to Russia. This is the strategic dot you have not connected.
Watermelons 🍉 .
Greg: what will our technology look like post nuclear war? Here we are guessing.
Back to the stone age is very unlikely. At least not the first couple of generations post nuclear war.
A lot of already manufactured electronics will survive—for how long? Much data stored on magnetic disks will be wiped clean, but except chips connected to the grid that then get an electronic spike, most chips will survive. A bigger question: how many chip fabs will survive? Even older fabs can make CPUs and other computer chips that are perfectly usable. For example, this response is written on a Raspberry Pi 4, far from a cutting edge computer but usable none-the-less. Even the manufacture of a trickle of new computers may continue. Then there will be people like me keeping older computers running.
The next level below that are the machines we had at the end of World War II. While we de-industrialized, many of the machines were sold basically for scrap, pennies on the dollar. Many were snapped up by people who could use them, even hobbyists who have room for multi-ton machines. The biggest challenge for them will be access to raw materials. Though I’m not an expert machinist, I’ve been trained how to use those machines, and there are many like me.
The biggest unknown for me is transportation. I expect a lot of that depends on access to oil.
So what will technology be like? I expect a mixture of old and new with a far smaller population to make use of them.
Really a very informative text, here it became football fans – some are from the Russian team and others from the Ukrainian team – and they don’t realize that this war doesn’t have any “Allied” army, it we only has armies of the “Axis”, and there’s still the China and its “medical preparations”. Will Putin listen to the “ghost”?
A hug from Brazil.
It is not “will” they go nuclear, but “when.”
Everyone is expecting the next “false flag” but they may be surprised when there is not one.
The reliability of the American arsenal is under suspicion, but what of the reliability of the chain of command? Nonexistent I would say.
A friend of mine who is of Ukrainian descent and very in touch says watch out for May 9, Russian’s Victory Day. It is one of their most important holidays involving military parades, celebrations, etc. They would love nothing more than to have declared victory over Ukraine by that date.
May 9 is important. Yes.
You’ve been saying this for a few decades, and I’ve been listening. Great facts – thank you!
Today, Putin was shaking badly and bracing himself to the table – he is clearly very sick and likely with Parkinsons. It will be interesting to see how much time he has left and what decisions he makes. After Xi has his election in August to become leader for life, I am concerned he will become very aggressive as there will be no restraint to please the people – for now he has to be a politician. We have gone for many decades without a nuclear war, but I agree that time seems to have come to an end. Both of these communist leaders know who an empty shell we have in the white house. It seems war is in the air and won’t go away easily. God have mercy on us all.
Of interest: https://nypost.com/2022/04/21/vladimir-putin-test-launches-satan-2-nuclear-missile/
Just wanted to share this interview with Dr. Peter Vincent Pry. Discusses Ukraine, Russia, potential nuclear war… the usual goodies.
The Bill Walton Show – Episode 182: “Are We Misreading Putin’s War Aims” with Dr. Peter Vincent Pry
I’d love to hear Jeff weigh in on Dr. Pry’s comments here about the possible deceptions in play regarding Russia’s Ukraine adventure.
He makes some valid points, but then fouls the water by raising the hypothetical notion of the US somehow being able to persuade, via diplomacy, Russia to abandon its alliance with China.
Russian defense ministry and chemical plant on fire.
Self inflicted wound or enemy sabotage? No idea
but expect the tempo to increase a bit.
-BillFreeman
Bill Freeman said “Russian defense ministry and chemical plant on fire.”
I’ve seen several reports, and some (including the above statement) are misleading. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MinOboron) is on Arbat Square, central Moscow. The building that went on fire is in the city of Tver (about a quarter of the way from Moscow to St Petersburg); it belongs to the Defense Ministry, and seems to be a research centre for aerospace technology. If Kyiv is indeed capable of sabotage Isrаеli-type sabotage operations on Russian territory, then this building would be a desirable target (the actual Defense Ministry in Moscow would presumably be too difficult to attack).
Thank you. Another sobering, puzzle piecing together article for me.
Jeff’s knowledge and understanding of Soviet history is astonishing. I listened to the Bill Walton interview with Dr. Peter Pry last night and the impression I got was that with each passing week, the danger of nuclear war grows worse. Biden’s decision to not raise the DefCon level, offers Putin more encouragement to launch a first strike.
Someone get Jeff on Joe Rogan’s podcast.
I believe that the U.S./NATO should deploy tactical nukes and nuclear IRBM’s into the Baltic states +Poland along with THADD and Iron dome missile defense systems while also re deployment of nuclear armaments in Western Europe too.
We need U.S. force of about 50,000 to 75,000 with combined force of NATO that makes up about between 100,000 and 150,000 strong force. We also need to encourage Poland to develop nuclear armaments too while also undertaking black op and shadow operations against the Russians. In addition, we need to drill baby and get back to our own oil/energy independence breaking Russia’s. On the Asian front we need to create an Asian South Pacific partnership version of NATO scrap Japan’s post WWII military restrictions re deploy tactical nukes on the Korean Peninsula, Able Archer style military exercises in Taiwan and place heavy sanctions on top Red Chinese banks and trade while developing a new Reagan military doctrine against Russia and China that includes IWarfare,Cyberwarfare, Space Warfare along with advanced multi domain and hybrid warfare.
All these are great ideas, but it seems we’re out of time. Russia and China aren’t going to stand around and watch as we implement all of this.
There was SEATO but it was closed in 1977.
Of interest: https://www.breitbart.com/border/2022/04/20/exclusive-four-military-age-syrian-males-arrested-in-west-texas-near-border-says-source/
“The moment has come for the great harvest.”
It sure seems that way! But there are also many people “waking up” to the reality of what is taking place in America. Will it be enough to turn the tide? I have no idea, but I pray it will be.
Thank you Jeff for sharing your knowledge of Russia’s history. It’s very helpful for seeing the big picture. I’m looking forward to watching your interview on the Glazov Gang. I appreciate you linking it! 🙂
Some off the cuff notes inspired by a comment about Peter Zeihan being a “confidence man” left in response to one of Jeff’s recent blog posts penned after a friend coincidentally asked me to evaluate a Peter Zeihan video titled “How Russia Will Die”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw.
Points of contention:
1. Hypersonic missile value: the weapons don’t need to be nuclear warhead tipped to be of value, they and thermobaric bombs are capable of decimating hardened structures will less risk to aircraft and less overall munitions cost per hard-target kill. Hypersonic missiles, then, are not prohibitively expensive when accounting for pilot and plane shortages and the desirability of actually using hypersonic missiles to spur sufficient purchases to help amortize the cost per unit. PZ doesn’t fully understand this technology’s capabilities nor does he seem to adequately consider theft of IP and transnational cooperation on weapons development nor the role that a single “super genius” largely separated from bureaucratic constraints can play in the rapid development of weaponry (e.g. Einstein and The Bomb, Ralph Barrett and Covid 19, Chinese progress on abandoned US hypersonic optimization programs resulting in testing of an “impossible” weapon).
2. The pre-Ukrainian conflict indications I’ve seen in prior Russian conflicts are that the Russians have a very poor apatite for combat losses (which is why some Ukrainian soldiers, almost certainly working with PSY OPS, are reportedly texting pictures of dead soldiers to Russian mothers). I also get the impression that Russian opposition to the invasion is far less substantial than Russian support for the invasion yet under a brutal Russian authoritarian leadership structure it’s very difficult to know how real the dissent is and how consequential it will be. I’ve been meaning to attend one of the local Russian church services to talk to some of the local Russians and Ukrainians about their opinions. Suffice to say, Zeihan may be onto something as it would be largely unnecessary for our controlled media to inundate us daily with anti-Russian propaganda if the powers in Washington DC didn’t foresee Russia prevailing under current conditions.
3. I doubt that Putin is really Russia’s “last competent leader”. Putin is undoubtedly smart but i don’t get the impression that he’s an irreplaceable strategic genius like Bibi Netanyahu or Qasem Soleimani. Most leaders are a replaceable dime a dozen, certainly ours in the US are. There are likely dozens of military and intelligence and academic experts who could step in an bring Russia greater national prosperity. Nonetheless, it is interesting that Russia has been sending its generals to the frontlines, forcing them to put “skin in the game”. Perhaps this is a means of keeping them from becoming too popular and powerful (similar to the recent heart attack among a senior Russian defense minister).
4. On the assertion of the Russians winning the conflict without question: Zeihan is underestimating the stupidity of the White House and CIA in sending “liaison troops” to Ukraine. Yes, there are already CIA troops pretending to be senior ranking (LTC/COL) US military officers in Ukraine or on its borders serving in command advisory roles. This pretty much guarantees that some of these advisors will be injured, captured, or killed and be used as the false flag necessary to draw the US into direct armed conflict and eventual nuclear war. Note the level of dehumanization of Russians and Putin that suddenly flooded the US media on the eve of the invasion. Such a lockstep campaign between the MSM networks reeks of intelligence agency (PSYOP/Civil Affairs) cooperation.
Russia won’t defacto win this conflict with the substantial drone, artillery, intelligence, MANPAD, and anti-tank weaponry being provided to the Ukrainians by the foolish Western nations (as Zeihan astutely notes, Germany even seems to have a dangerously visceral disdain for Russia even in times of peace. As if they are, perhaps, foolishly seeking vengeance for historical wrongs). To be fair, however, Zeihan probably prepped his notes for this video before the absurdist scope and scale of Western armaments to Russia was fully known.
5. On Russian demographics. I have a deep admiration for those who understand that demographics is destiny. The typical viewpoint of your senior CIA/State Department analysts is to focus primarily on the mindset of the leader (you see this in the media assessments that focus on Putin rather than on deeper population trends). The leader is typically assumed to be a macrocosm for the broader population, largely true in a democracy (yikes about what that says about the moral and mental health of America to our adversaries). In an authoritarian state the psychological factors of a few top leaders and their recent military procurements become the prime measures of power. Broad demographic factors like Zeihan analyzes here are largely ignored only because they are too complex for the average policymaker to really comprehend, its easier to analyze one person and a few budgets as a representation of intents and powers.
6. On China being deterred from invading Taiwan due to their observations of the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia: I’d disagree adamantly with Zeihan here. It’s telling that Putin’s “rambling speech” justifying the invasion of Ukraine on the eve of the invasion covered more precisely the Chinese rationale for invading Taiwan than it did provide a coherent rationale for Russia invading Ukraine. I think Putin is proving to Xi his ideological commitment to a common fascist/communistic/totalitarian government structure in addition to providing China with a clear gauged into how the West will react (and their tactics) in response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Furthermore, i find the speculations that the US sanctioning of Russian corporate, banker’s assets, and elite’s private properties are severely undermining trust in Western banking institutions quite plausible. Such sanctions by Western governments are a form of blackmail which other nations and transnational entities are reminded the US will do to them if it doesn’t like their policies or actions. Effectually, the US overplayed its hand in this conflict and is seriously undermining trust in the USD. Say goodbye to international US Bond buyers. You’re going to see a grand emphasis on the development of digital currencies and parallel economies detached from SWIFT and hard asset (gold/oil) backed currencies from China/Russia to challenge the USD as the world’s (currently) only somewhat stable international reserve currency.
This is especially relevant following Trudope’s retroactive seizure of personal bank accounts and “de-personing” certain donors to the Canadian trucker protests. Trust for Western financial entities is dropping like rock due to overt missteps by Western world leaders even as on the more obscured and far less understood financial backend, unlimited counterfeiting our own currency as official monetary policy (MMT) goes unabated. All of this is cumulatively bring the global economy to the brink of CATASTROPHIC collapse.
It’s also quite likely that China will not be deterred by the Russian, sanctions. Zeihan seems to be unaware that China is on war footing already, just last year it hoarded 60% of global grain exports. This is far more grain than its people needed seasonally. This level of grain imports very likely wouldn’t escape the attention of high-level Chinese policymakers like Xi and his generals. You can also see in the latest Shanghai lockdowns that Chinese authorities are prepping for broad supply shortages and civil disorder well beyond some falsified crisis they’re currently calling a pandemic. War with China is likely coming soon.
Spot on Tom B. The greatest threat is from those that unleashed this Wuhan pandemic and fanning or funding the war from Russia to Europe.
Most of the world think Americans are demoralized just like Biden or Trump because as you note, the leaders are a reflection and representation of the population. The problem is most Americans don’t see their own demoralization and keep kowtowing to the Chinese, as though they want to turn a blind eye of all the human rights and animal abuses the Chinese/Vietnamese/Koreans are doing….
It appears America has become a nation that doesn’t want to hold responsible and accountable criminals and that is true with the changes in criminal law across the country and homosexuality laws.
Great Britain is becoming less Christian and America has those professing to be Christians, but are lover of themselves, breeders of more degenerates, and full of perverts — shallowness abounds. When did prostitutes become “stars”?
One must think the West is running out of descent, morally superior, and intelligent leaders that will stand up against the communists (Mitt Romney is unremarkable and lacks courage) or is it because the masses do not want such leaders because such morally superior leaders don’t reflect the masses? Lack of integrity is the norm amongst the masses…
It seems we are sinking lower with each year.
I visited Tenn Tech back in 2003 when a Professsor friend in the Physics Department was retiring. I saw a couple of my old profs in Civil Engineering and I had the opportunity to visit with my Mechanics of Materials instructor at length.
He said the kids coming in have no moral fiber. They don’t see cheating for what it is, and accept it as a matter of course in life.
There’s an old saying in Naval Aviation, “If you ain’t cheatin’, you ain’t tryin’.” That did not mean actually cheating, per se, but trying your hardest and thinking outside the box so you can improvise, adapt and overcome. Alas, the guy that coined that, became a Congresscritter and ended up in Club fed for bribery. He’s basically in hiding now, because he is ashamed of what he did. Too many admire those who cheat to get ahead and see nothing wrong with it.
“Note the level of dehumanization of Russians and Putin that suddenly flooded the US media on the eve of the invasion. Such a lockstep campaign between the MSM networks reeks of intelligence agency (PSYOP/Civil Affairs) cooperation.”
What dehumanization of Russians? The West’s admittedly petty attacks of *some* Russian elites is nothing compared to the years-long dehumanization campaign of *all* Ukrainians by the Russian media. If the Western press really wanted to blacken Russians the would talk more about the pro-genocide article (Sergeitsev in RIA Novosti) and similar sentiments expressed all over the state media (eg. all Ukrainians are Nazis, they must atone for their guilt by suffering the hardships of war, forced labour, re-education). Or they could raise the alarm about the many instances of Russian media positively salivating at the thought of nuking the U.S.
The only reason Western institutions are being so deliberately over the top in targeting Russian celebrities, art, literature etc is to distract from the really disturbing things that Russian media is routinely propagating. And from the fact that a lot or ordinary Russians fervently believe those things. That’s the real PsyOps. To make conservatives dismiss the genocide in progress in Ukraine. And to make Americans oblivious to the real danger they are in.
There is deep-seated Russian hatred and contempt for Ukrainians. Current propaganda is simply exploiting what was already there. See some of the articles below.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russian-contempt-for-ukraine-paved-the-way-for-putins-disastrous-invasion/
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/
Russians could access alternative sources of information on the war if they wanted to. But most don’t want to. “While folksy expressions of Ukrainian identity have traditionally been tolerated, any attempt to promote the idea of a truly separate Ukrainian nation has been interpreted as a direct attack on Russia… deep-seated prejudices and resentments…”
https://www.aspen.review/article/2017/on-the-wrong-and-right-ukrainians/
Dugin and other intellectuals on the wrong Ukrainians
You’ve missed much of the point of Zeihan’s presentation in that short clip. That is a subset of a presentation given to a group of Officers at Fort Benning back in February (IIRC) and does not tell the entire story. the full video is called “The Changing Character of War” and is available on the GeoPop channel as well as several other channels on You Tube.
The point of China and Taiwan is not sanctions, but the ability to resist. The Nationalists have a lot more capability than the Ukrainians, and it has been pointed out that the Chinese army is very corrupt and there are questions as to whether or not it will obey orders to try to take Taiwan.
I could go on, but you would do well to watch the entire presentation and not just part of it. It’s 70 minutes long and is quite informative. Make sure you take what he says in context.
Seems Jeff Nyquist too got misled by Ukrainian propaganda. It is deluded to think Ukraine can win, they had some initial success due to Russian softness, concerns over inflicting unnecessary losses. Now the biggest encirclement since Stalingrad is going to happen in coming days. Once the main Ukrainian forces get cut off, it is over. Zelensky will sign whatever Putin asks.
Zelensky was given a home in Florida. This is another action of the global depopulation agenda.
Likely, a nice home in Florida with tons of drugs and male lovers. But that is was not my paint, they will have no option but to sign a surrender, after sacrificing Ukraine’s military for globalism.
I am losing track here. I thought you were a communist, commit. Please be more careful in future. Remember what Stalin ended up doing to Nikolai Bukharin. Somebody is going to say you aren’t a real Marxist.
Thanks for adding your two cents, Vomit 🙄
Always you leave a trail of negativity behind you.
@LynnW: That kind of talk is most inappropriate and is also ill-advised. I am simply here to discuss politics and foreign policy in a manner that is as academic and as dispassionate as possible.
I deleted his comment as inappropriate.
You’ll have to fight me for him.
Another one of your stupid remarks.
I need more popcorn. 🍿
My response looks a bit strange after that comment was deleted. I thought we were about to have a cat fight. LOL
Sorry. I can restore the remarks if you want.
No, it’s fine. 🙂 Thank you for all the moderating you do!
😆
@PrayinginOK: I understood what you had meant. It’s fine.
Per Commit’s note: The Russians can still win if they field 500,000 troops and attack in June when the ground is dry. But right now, according to the pentagon, Ukraine is thought to have more tanks in the war zone than Russia. It is looking like Russia cannot manage a sufficient mobilization. Peter Pry has suggested that this could be an Austerlitz-type gambit. While that is possible, Ukrainian success is such that NATO has no reason to intervene. Such an intervention would be extremely damaging to Ukraine’s security at this point because it would rally Russia and lead to the strengthening of Russian morale. Everything is uncertain in war, yet there is an analysis we can do based on existing factors. Russian casualties are ridiculously high. While some claim Ukrainian losses are high, there is reason to think the Ukrainian military losses are about one-fifth of the Russian losses. The only reason I am beginning to accept the Ukrainian figures is the results on the battlefield and knowledge of past Russian/Soviet operations which tell a very similar story. There is a detailed analysis of this Russian five-to-one (or more) loss tendency in John Mosier’s book “Deathride.” In 1941-2 the Russians could take losses on this scale and hold the field. I am not sure if they can afford to prosecute a war after this fashion today.
It’s nice of Pooty-poot to hold back and refrain from using his nuclear advantage. What do you suppose is stopping him? All he needs to do is obliterate the United States, and let China clean up the mess. How much retaliation could there be? Russia has all those fallout shelters. Why does he want to endure the loss of his troops and antiquated weaponry?
Putin is waiting for his economic weapons — grain and oil — to take effect. NATO and Japan will have to give in to Moscow and Beijing at some point, or suffer severe economic losses. To split the NATO alliance is worth a prolonged war. Putin’s calculus is still strategically valid. Once Europe and Japan acquiesce, the nuclear phase can begin. If they do not, it begins anyway.
Ukraine is running out of ammunition and de-industrialized “west” is unable to resupply. Long war of attrition is more secure victory for Russia. Pry has some clue what is going on.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines-use-of-stinger-and-javelin-missiles-is-outstripping-us-production/
Feel free to delete my comments, I believe I provide valuable insights.
A long war tends to favor Russia, that is true — provided the West cannot adapt to the needs of the hour.
I have yet to see a Russian tank provably destroyed by Javelin, to believe Ukraine has more tanks.
Talk to someone who is paying for satellite feed and counting destroyed tanks.
You assume they intend to take whole of Ukraine? Kiev as a fake out. Ukraine fell for it. Now their troops there are isolated and unable to reinforce the Donbass which Putin will take. He’s way ahead of you. Just relax and enjoy it.
The Russians were repulsed around Kiev. They withdrew because they could not maintain their supply lines there.
When you have to line up nearly your entire mech infantry army into miles long convoys, it’s not going well. Mud. If Russia wanted to go all out, with ALCMs and thermobarics this war would already be over. I suggested RU use nukes and be done with it vs Ukraine a month ago. You said it would be counter productive to RU propaganda, as Russia was milking the idea of liberating its brother country from Nazi and West influence. Russian citizens would freak out and such. Good point.
But, if you (Russia) are going to nuke the entire West eventually, you might just say f it, and bring out the full guns vs. Ukraine.
When Putin boasted about being able to take several NATO nation capitals in 72 hours or 96 whatever, he was serious. Nukes. Depends on what take means. It’s not needed though, numbers and time are against Ukraine. The West can supply weapons to 🇺🇦, Russia will tolerate it. It’s not winning Ukraine this war.
Russia’s economic weapons may yet break NATO. Only time will tell.
Either Moscow used what they thought would be sufficient and failed, or they are following an Austerlitz strategy and are setting a trap.
It seems impossible that RU could so misjudge the weather conditions. Yet they did. I still don’t understand why they forced this invasion. Better to wait till a winter even.
Jeff, you know the RU have weapons that won’t fail. I don’t think it’s a trap. Russia is not lacking in weapons to totally shut down Kiev. They are sparing Kiev.
I seriously doubt Russia can keep taking the kind of losses they are taking. Any Army that has 36 YO Privates (and Russia seems to have an abundance of older privates) is an Army in trouble.
As to intervening: I can feel for Zelensky wanting direct intervention, and I’m of the opinion that there is plenty of reasons for intervention given Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine, I think it would be counterproductive regardless of how much I might like such an act. Ward Carroll, a retired Naval Flight Officer had a interview with a Brit specialist who thinks the west imposing a no fly zone would solve many problems for Putin. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBARgW_vHVE
Providing weapons to Ukraine, and paired with the western training Ukraine has received since 2015, I think the Ukrainians have the chance to crush the Russian Army in Ukraine. I have already reached the point that i strongly believe that Russia loses without nukes, but also loses with nukes.
Russia is going to use nukes, but I seriously doubt he uses them in Ukraine.
Putin is certainly hoping you’re right. I seriously doubt either he, or you, are right.
Praying for peace, preparing for war.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/JgL3Ss8Wwfjr/?list=notifications&randomize=false
Thanks for posting this link. I would have missed this interview.
Not sure why the date shows April 22 of this year. It was originally posted on May 4th of 2020.
https://brlghteon.com/702b72ab-af78-482c-a959-9a0970a98493
Consider the logic. Putin just demonstrated his new Satan missile. He seems resolved to acceding to sanctions against him. He feels threatened by NATO and other NAZIS. Now that he has the advantage, why would he wait?
2 Russian oligarchs and their families found dead within two days of each other. No idea what this means, but I certainly don’t buy the “murder suicide” trope.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/2-russian-oligarchs-found-dead-just-one-day-apart
Will Russia go nuclear? Am I missing something? They are dismantling the largest , most highly motivated (NATO ‘trained’) army in Europe one grid square at a time. They will control all Russian speaking areas by June. Landlocked rump Ukraine is a distinct probability. The ‘thinking’ class in the west hasn’t been right since Kabul last year. Or Syria. Or Iraq. Our own borders are being overrun. Get a grip.
Russia wants the U.S. border open, and they love Biden for canceling our best nuclear warhead.
Biden says that the US won’t more directly participate in battle against Russia, but on the one hand he antagonizes Russia by providing military aid to Ukraine, while creating US domestic policy that benefits Russia.
More than that! Biden also cuts our strategic arsenal at every opportunity. While he sends supplies to Ukraine, he takes steps to assure Moscow’s strategic superiority. Why? It is no accident. Tanks and infantry do not matter as much as nuclear warheads. It is premature to judge this war without waiting to see how the strategic weapons aspect plays out. Here is the decisive element in Russia’s strategic thinking process; and they are probably correct in their analysis. To some extent the war in Ukraine prepares the ground for nuclear strikes. We know from at least one defector source, and from Chinese internal documents, that Beijing plans to occupy the lower 48 states. General Chi Haotian has talked about the extermination of the US population. This is the real population reduction agenda. People like Bill Gates and Klaus Schwab are Chinese and Russian lackeys. The West is full of collaborators who have enriched themselves. Russian dissident Vladimir Bukovsky named names in his last book. A large section of the West’s elite was privately rooting for the communist bloc. Bukovsky’s book was blocked from publication for two decades because of the powerful forces threatening legal action against any publisher. Finally he found someone courageous enough to publish. What we are seeing today is the emergence of a new world religion which has spread rapidly through our academic, political, and media elites. Even our large corporations are contaminated. So it is not merely our domestic policy that benefits Russia.
Biden doesn’t even know the difference between Title 42 and mask mandates. It’s getting a bit scary! 🙁
https://www.westernjournal.com/devastating-biden-gaffe-potus-asked-title-42-starts-babbling-something-totally-different/
He doesn’t know what day it is half the time.
Russia wants our border open? You know this how? We 330 million have no agency or volition? Or responsibility? Enough with excuses and mental gymnastics. The clowns running the west failed at everything since Reagan. The rest of the world has to act accordingly. It’s not their fault our ‘leaders’ are trash and our people are shallow fools. Every subversion and perversion aimed at the west ( dreamed up in the Tavistock institute and Frankfurt School) was lapped up by the west but is being vomited up by sane nations.
You have forgotten a very large subject: Communist subversion. You might want to read Whittaker Chamber and Joseph McCarthy’s books. These will connect the dots for you.
It is more simple, capitalists want your (and our) border open.
Not patriotic capitalists.
We have the same problem with the W88 475kT nuclear warhead that we have with the F-22.
We didn’t buy enough of them.
I don’t think Ukraine is as unified as you’ve made it out to be. The current government had to machine gun crowds to put down anti-Maiden protests in ’14. The language laws really do piss people off. None of this is so bad that any sane person welcomes Russian “liberation,” but they’ll be just as content living life under Moscow’s rule as Kiev’s.
Militarily I think this has proved that Hezbollah vs. Israel in 2006 was not a fluke. Underground bunkers plus RPGs really can blunt a tank army. And the Ukrainians are working with way better weapons than Hezbollah ever had. But I think the Russians are adapting and the new strategy seems to be inch forward behind a blizzard of artillery. Russian industry can pump out all the fuel, machinery and ammunition needed to keep that up forever. And if done right they shouldn’t be losing too many soldiers or officers in the process. Even if the noose closes only a half kilometer a day, it still closes eventually.
Where do you get your facts? — From Russian TV? In Ukraine, the free development, use and protection of Russian, and other languages of national minorities of Ukraine, is guaranteed by the Constitution. And please cite your source for that blood libel you advanced against the Ukrainian government.
Mr. Nyquist, a law that came into effect in January requires print media outlets in Ukraine to publish in Ukrainian. Exceptions are made for certain languages, but not Russian.
A 2019 law and subsequent articles place extensive restrictions on language in Ukraine, including mandating that customers must be serviced in Ukrainian unless they specifically ask to be addressed in another language; mandating Ukrainian as the language of all advertising, including TV and radio; and mandating that films produced in Ukraine must be in Ukrainian.
Sources:
https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-concerns-ukraine
https://insightplus.bakermckenzie.com/bm/intellectual-property/ukraine-new-and-upcoming-language-law-implications-for-businesses
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/parliament-passes-ukrainian-language-bill.html
Here is a brief information video about how the language law actually works in Ukraine: https://youtu.be/jWNqZ7MafF8
Tanks that cant maneuver are pretty easy targets. We will see what happens when the ground dries out.
“I am losing track here. I thought you were a communist, commit.”
Yes, I am, nothing anti-communist on what I wrote. I am using the word globalism as a synonym for imperialism.
Ukraine is run by homosexuals, drug addicts and Nazis according to Putin. You can see western degenerates fighting alongside Azov. Zelensky is clearly on cocaine.
Bukharin was not fully wrong, as Chinese success have proven, but in given geopolitical situation, I believe Stalin have more for-sight, saved the country by rapid industrialization.
Thanks for the clarification. Wish you would comment on the work of Marxist-Leninist agents inside the “imperialist” structures. But I know you are not allowed to do that.
First, unlike you, I don’t believe liberalism has anything to do with Marxism or communism, its origins are older, in French and American revolution, in freemasonry, which is bourgeoise movement.
The great reset liberals and “progressives” are definitely not communists, what they want is preservation of imperialism by replacing bourgeoise democracy with some authoritarian system of government, saving monopolist capitalist class by sacrificing middle class
On American open communists, there are not many, but some are quite insightful. Caleb Maupin for example, writes a lot about what he calls synthetic “left”, imperialist lackeys, lumpenproletariat, degenerates, antifa and co. Maybe some of them are communist agents, as you believe, I am not convinced. American true communists see them as main enemy.
There are anti-imperialists in America on “right”, followers of Lyndon LaRouche, who I believe can be seen as communist allies. Maybe they are communist agents also or useful idiots of communists. I am not sure.
I never confuse real liberals with Marxists. And Lyndon LaRouche was a teacher of Marxism-Leninism who experimented with right wing Marxism. He was secretly supported by the KGB.
I still may have a few of the LaRouche Executive Intelligence Review magazines given to be by a conservative co-worker back in the 80’s. He was really into them but I quickly thought that there was something a bit odd about LaRouche and never trusted any of the information. He suckered a lot of conservatives during the Reagan era.
Yes, he did.
There is a very large difference between a 20th century liberal, and a classical liberal. As I’ve told many a Democrat, “Jefferson would sentence you to death, and Jackson would be delighted the spring the trap under you.” Too many that have called themselves “liberals” are anything but. They are simply socialists in disguise. Many are outright communists these days.
To you anyone fighting against Putinist forces are degenerates. It’s unfortunate for you that Putinist Russia is a degenerate country and its Army is manned with degenerates. Putin has carried out his operations in similar fashion to Hitler. He has also assumed the position of supreme commander of Russian forces. In Rene De Chambrun’s memoirs, he heard a broadcast from a Stuttgart radio station, made in French, that Germany was invading to protect Holland Belgium and Luxembourg from the allied threat. As someone said, “History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.”
Globalism and imperialism are far from being the same thing. As usual, you are completely disconnected from reality.
“A top Pentagon official resigned this week and warned that the United States is losing its edge in the global race for technological superiority.”
Preston Dunlap’s resignation letter is definitely troubling:
https://www.westernjournal.com/chief-architect-space-force-resigns-3-years-issues-big-warning-defending-country/
Russian giggling over nuking New York is also troubling. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10739749/Russian-state-TV-hosts-giggle-discuss-NUKING-New-York-Putins-hypersonic-missile.html
I agree. And thanks for posting this link; I would not have seen this story otherwise.
There’s a Russian young man that interviews/polls random Russians on the streets about the war, disinformation, Putin NATO etc. I find it interesting and depressing . Chanel is called 1420. Also a brave Ukrainian widow of a military Pilot shot down in 2014. “think Ukraine” is her Chanel. Some real takes on Ukraine.
Russian media is disgusting and apparently effective in propagandizing its citizens.
The Russians have effectively propagandized our conservatives!
Oh wow! 🙁 We talked before about how Hitler dehumanized the Jews and it made it acceptable for him to kill them. Putin is certainly making many Russians hate the US.
He is dehumanizing us! I have long said that we Americans are the target of the next great genocide. But I fear it is the Ukrainians first….
Did you catch Putin making a joke about raping Ukraine? https://youtu.be/8Zx33xcZnS4
Putin is known for his vulgarity.
JN: “He is dehumanizing us! I have long said that we Americans are the target of the next great genocide. But I fear it is the Ukrainians first….”
Wow, that’s a good point! I don’t understand why people, especially conservatives, are not more disturbed by the dehumanizing, disgusting things that Russian media routinely says about Americans (never mind about Ukrainians, Baltics etc since those people apparently don’t exist). When they notice they dismiss it as just excitable foreigners being excitable, nothing to worry about.
Do conservatives secretly hate themselves and that’s why they accept Russian media’s characterization of all Americans? Maybe the Left’s constant attacks have desensitized them to the danger of nuclear-armed Russia using the same language? But at the same time conservatives swear the Left is targeting them for destruction so… I guess there is a mental disconnect where as you said before, they can only see one enemy.
Yes. A disconnect there is!
Sorry for the double post.
I don’t know if this particular intercept is accurate, but I can believe conversations like this are happening throughout Russia. The civilizational mask is coming off to reveal the Mongol horde within.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1513954424791703559
Ukrainian intercept purportedly between a Russian soldier and his wife back home, who “allows” him to rape Ukrainian women if he wears protection and doesn’t tell her about it.
Very interesting!
Massive bureaucracy has ever been the bane of efficiency, innovation, and dare I say it, human progress. It ultimately serves as little more than a repository in which an organization (or society) can place its numerous untalented mid-wits. Reading Mr. Preston Dunlap’s sentiments triggered me (I use the leftist idiom ironically).
Some *important questions for Mr. Nyquist* for some hopefully somewhat detailed answers: Before any Russian nuclear strike on the U.S., will we regular citizens be able to discern any sort of ‘here it comes’ warning to any degree? I mean, like a period of significantly increased public acrimony between the U.S. and Russia (via each’s officials), one that is reported in the media? Final significant military movements of Russian and perhaps Chinese forces? Increased missile testing? All of the above? Over what timeframe? Will the Pentagon even disclose any of these, should they occur? If not, can some other agency/-ies, foreign or domestic, pick up on them and disclose their occurrence? Or will an attack come alternatively after there has been announced and discussed some sort of supposedly real prospect of a cease-fire or armistice, and things appear to have significantly ‘calmed down’ from where they stand now? And/or after Russia has achieved major objectives in the Ukraine, such as finally securing the eastern part of the country under their control. And again, after ‘all of the above’? Or will the Russians *really* keep/act mum regarding words and actions? I mean, they already have their forces on nuclear alert. So what more, if anything, can and should we most watch for? And what about any U.S./NATO mirror actions, such as sudden mass surges in mass movement/massings of troops, equipment, aircraft, and ships? (E.g., looking up in our domestic skies and seeing unusually large groups of high-altitude aircraft and trailing contrails heading east over a couple days?) Or a change in Defcon status? Sudden federal domestic restrictions/edicts just short of martial law? And again, the timeframes involved. And also, what might prompt you to issue an imminent ‘war warning’ to readers here, if indeed you would or will?
The Russian leaders are being pretty open about their intentions. Every indicator of a coming attack has now occurred. They can initiate nuclear strikes at will.
From: https://www.wnd.com/1999/11/6393/
“Surprise Nuclear Missile Attack, Part 2”
J.R. Nyquist By J.R. Nyquist
Published November 15, 1999 at 1:00am
Significant troop mobilizations in response to a fabricated crisis;
An increase in missile tests, to assure the readiness and accuracy of the Strategic Rocket Forces;
An increase in prohibited underground nuclear tests;
An increase in war exercises of all service branches;
Significant troop mobilizations in satellite or allied countries, especially China, North Korea, Iraq or Serbia;
Any attempt to create a unified nuclear command;
Efforts to extend the range of fighter-bomber formations by upgrading them with extra fuel tanks and in-flight refueling capability;
An increase in high-level meetings between government and military leaders;
Misleading official statements about the military readiness of the armed forces;
The sudden distribution of a new generation of conventional weapons to the armed forces.
The unusual stockpiling of nonferrous and rare metals;
Significant cutbacks in petroleum exports for increased military consumption and/or stockpiling;
Large government purchases of gold;
A large increase in food imports (above normal domestic consumption);
Large imports of agricultural machinery;
The creation of hardened underground sites for the relocation of war factories;
The sudden closing of heavy industrial plants or key scientific centers involved in aerospace research;
An increase in shipping assets operating along the Volga and Caspian waterways;
A sharp increase in rail traffic in the Ural Mountains and Far East regions;
A sudden rise in domestic energy consumption.
Warning the population in advance of attack;
Evacuating areas which lack blast or fallout shelters;
Construction of emergency shelters;
Proper instruction of the population on protective measures against weapons of mass destruction.
Convince the Russian people that America is out to destroy them;
Show that Western capitalists have been looting the Russian economy;
Say that the United States has designs on Russia’s neighbors, or on Russian resources;
Say that the United States is preparing to build new weapons — in violation of treaty obligations — that will make
America invincible to attack;
Suggest that corrupt Russian officials and capitalist “oligarchs” are agents of the CIA;
Work behind the scenes to provoke a regional crisis that makes the United States appear in the role of aggressor;
Repeatedly expose the public to official statements that nuclear war is close at hand;
Increase the number of civil defense drills;
Require the population to organize itself into voluntary civil defense units;
Initiate a new program of education on methods of defense from nuclear weapons and fallout radiation.
In the event a nuclear war is only hours away, further danger signals will be evident. If any three of the following indicators appear, then nuclear attack is probably imminent.
A rash of high level assassinations within the United States and other Western countries;
A sudden outbreak of an unknown and virulent disease which quickly kills or debilitates thousands of people in a matter of hours;
Unexplained underwater nuclear explosions in the North Atlantic, Norwegian Sea, North Pacific or Arctic;
Reports or rumors of an attempted military coup against the president of the United States;
A collapse of the power grid throughout most of North America;
Failure of the phone system in the United States and Canada;
Motor vehicles with computerized ignition systems failing to start up;
Widespread terrorism, mayhem in the cities, rioting, looting, fires and general unrest caused by “unknown forces” (regardless of who is blamed);
The Russian population is moved into fallout and blast shelters; and
Russia evacuates many small towns and rural districts.
“Really good idea to read the whole article and the one preceding it.” -Edwin
Thank you.
I do not think it will be necessary for Russia to nuke the U.S. America has been sufficiently infiltrated and indoctrinated to the point that we will manage our own destruction. I believe this has been pre-planned. We have known for a number of years that the dollar cannot sustain itself and have been looking for the ideal situation to terminate its use. Timing is the key and the Russia/Ukraine conflict is the means. Internally, we have been inundated with foreign invaders and we no longer speak nor understand each other. The socialist side of the population is firmly pitted against the remaining conservatives. Add to that a concerted effort by our government to create a chaotic upheaval resulting in the institution of martial law. This will be accomplished by food and fuel shortages of our own making. Many fires are mysteriously taking out food production and false bird flu tests are necessitating the elimination of key food sources. Union Pacific has recently decided not to transport fertilizer. Many of the farms used for planting and raising livestock have been bought up by corporate interests, wealthy individuals (think Gates) and China (who also owns interest in some of our oil fields). It is a small matter to control the power and communication grid. Too many people are in on the plan. While we are busy fighting each other China and Russia will keep us busy on two fronts while we struggle to hold our own at home. Neither Russia nor China wants to destroy the land and infrastructure in America and Canada since the land is necessary for food production and infrastructure is too costly to replace. This is only my take for what it’s worth and doesn’t cover all the details.
But, Eddie, there are good reasons to use nukes against the U.S.
• Use nukes to take out our ability to retaliate. That means to destroy our land-based assets, such as our missiles, strategic bombers before they have a chance to take off and any navel assets while they are still in port. This can be done from submarine launched missiles from within a few miles of our shores so that the flight time can be very short, often before we recognize what happened.
• Many of our urban areas are unsustainable apart from continuous imports of food and fuel. They will be a drag on any invader. The services they provide will not be usable by the invaders. Therefore nuke them to kill off their “useless eaters”.
• Much of the infrastructure that the invaders want to keep will survive nukes. That includes roads, rail roads, long distance power lines between cities, even many communication links.
• If they use air-burst nukes, there will be minimal fallout—most of the agricultural land will still be useful after a nuclear attack. The same is true of mines, oil fields, pasture lands and other rural assets.
So why not use nukes?
Think like the enemy. The points listed above are reasons the enemy would want to use nukes.
But the question remains—will the enemy be able to land troops to take the assets they want? They need physical possession in order to use them. Or will the invaders be wiped out by those not killed off by the nukes?
I appreciate your reply and have to think about it for a while. There are many options both inside and from outside the country. I’m pretty sure there is a large counterforce from outside operating within our midst that can be activated when needed.
Isn’t easier to make dollar worthless leave America in poverty, technological backwardness, harmless, without nuclear war? There is a huge amount of resources from outside America that Americans consume, buying them for dollars, while exporting nothing physical. Neutralizing this parasite without war seems more appealing. The resources consumed by Americans, not produced in America is what burdens rest if the humanity.
You’ve said enough. Stop posting.
Hi Friends, something very much related to the tragedy of Ukraine but on a positive note; Below is the video made by a beautiful Polish female track driver (and world famous) Iwona Blecharczyk where she and her sister Agnieszka talk to Mr Wojciech Bakun, the Lord Mayor of city of Przemysl which lies barely twenty kilometres from the border with Ukraine and which is the center of the gigantic operation of processing and accommodating dozens upon dozens of thousands of refugees who are still pouring through the border to Poland on a daily basis.
The compassion, enthusiasm and, above all, organisation skills of Mr Bakun are just mind blowing and represent everything best Poland got to offer.
So is the compassion and solidarity of thousands of volunteers who are now arriving in Poland from almost the entire world to help.
Regards – Bogdan
There are still many wonderful people in the world! Needing “long-term food” is something he mentioned several times. I wish more people in the US would also stock up on long-term food.
Would a nuclear attack result in heavy radioactive contamination from failing nuclear power plants across the USA? It seems this could be an obstacle for a Chinese occupation of the lower 48.
Attacks can be done without causing much fallout.
According to Russian MoD, Americans are preparing nuclear false-flag in Ukraine.
https://thesaker.is/sitrep-urgent-briefing-from-the-russian-mod-re-new-provocations/
Would explain the amount of nuclear fearmongering in English language media including this blog recently. We are supposed to believe that Russia is losing and getting desperate.
While actual situation on the ground is the opposite one, Ukrainian forces with no ammunition are close to surrender.
Washington has to do something to prevent this, probably involve NATO by nuclear false-flag.
Probably still hoping of turning fifth columnists in Russia against Putin if they (consumers of English language media) are made to believe Putin was responsible.
The Russians are discussing nuclear war on TV. Our side is eliminating types of nuclear weapons. Get right with the facts and stop promoting lies.
Saker is a known idiot. He’s part of Putin’s agitprop efforts and has added nothing to the conversation about Russia. Last I heard he lives in Florida, but he may live in Iceland.
I read his blog for years, he and people of his circle are usually correct on predicting future events. While the author of this blog has been claiming nuclear WW3 is coming for how long? 20 years?
I do not know when a nuclear war will break out, but a close examination of the preparations of Moscow and Beijing suggests a certain inevitability.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/2-russian-oligarchs-found-dead-just-one-day-apart
2 Russian Oligarchs Found Dead Just One Day Apart
by Tyler Durden
The bodies of two Russian oligarchs were found dead alongside their wives and children just one day apart, according to a handful of media reports.
The first was Vladislav Avayev, formerly vice president of Gazprombank. He was found killed by a gunshot wound in his Moscow apartment on Monday, Russia’s state-run Tass news agency reported. Police are looking into a theory that Avayev shot his wife and children, and then himself.
Although the names of the victims were not included in a public statement from the Russian government, Tass said an unnamed source later confirmed their identities.
Investigators said in their statement that they believe Avayev shot his wife and daughter, and then himself.
The second oligarch was found killed in Spain, some 2,000 miles away.
His name was Sergei Protosenya and he was found stabbed to death with his wife and daughter. Local media outlets claimed he had been found with a bloodied knife and axe by his side. Prior to his death, Protosenya had been the vice president and chief accountant of Novatek, a major gas company with close ties to Gazprombank.
The Clintons did it. Sounds like their MO.
Read the Puritans and for the love of your sanity, stay well clear of modern eschatalogies.
If Jeff permits this digression, I would say that in the very near future continental Europe will fall under the thrall of Russia, whereas both the UK and US will be in a militarily incapacitated or otherwise impotent state, albeit within their own neo-Marxist faction… all based on Ezekiel 38, which details the 6th of the 7 last plagues of Revelation 16. That’s my interpretation of it, based on old theological principles of interpretation. The good news is that one of the Anglo nations – probably the US (although I suspect most of the evangelical eschatologists of bygone ages thought the UK) – is where the tide turns and when it does, it will trigger the greatest political earthquake in history, heralding what the Puritans called “the fifth monarchy”, i.e., Christ’s spiritual reign on earth. I believe that begins in late 2028 / early 2029, at the demise of the terrifying but mercifully brief global ascendancy of the scarlet coloured beast “that was, is not and yet is” (Marxism) of Revelation 17. This means that Marxism is an instrument of Satan, his ultimate spiritual weapon against the nations.
What this also means is that Satan is going to throw the playbook – probably up to and including nuclear war – at fast-tracking the Red Supremacy, because that evil time begins in the West in 2025 in earnest. Allowing time for the trauma of that to be milked, I would say if WW3 is going to happen, it must do so within the next 12-24 months and more likely sooner within that timeframe than later.
Conservatives who are not yet Christians will, thankfully, not “wonder” (admire / supplicate / comply) when they behold the beast that was, is not and yet is (of Rev 17:8), and so there is great hope for Christians today that such conservatives will turn to Christ during those terrible 3.5 years or at time of the Kingdom’s emergence. The other key thing to take away from Rev 17:8 is to consider Marxists our deadly enemy and not to waste time trying to win them over.
In closing, I would say we have a very brief window to get our preparations in order for what’s coming. Proverbs 22:3 springs to mind: “A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself:”
But it’s for our time.
The Puritans didn’t know of communism and they couldn’t figure out the starting date of 1,260 years of Rev 11 when the “Gentiles” (apostate Christianity) began to tread underfoot “the holy city” (nominal Christendom / western Europe) yet it seems so obvious to me that it began with the enforcement of the Donation of Pepin in 765 AD (the said donation occurred several years earlier but was thwarted by rebellious locals).
But my main point is the Puritan interpretative model is the only one that lets us see what and when the clear and present danger is. The modern dispensationalist / Futurist stuff is muddled, fumbling in the dark and risks leaving people blind to the threat that Russia poses, both in its communist subversion, its military supremacy and its near future arrogant sense of impunity (which will lead to its utter and final ruin).
https://stas.org/en/publications/newsletters/feb-2022-sign-beast-71870
The sign of the beast vs. The sign of God
The Puritans were wrong. So badly wrong it’s embarrassing.
Well, you only have 3 years to wait to see how wrong they really were. Or not.
Yes. We know who is orchestrating evil in Russia, Ukraine, the U.S.A., Canada, and China, Europe, WEF, and Australia: Satan.
The purpose of consecrating Russia is exactly to convert it to Catholicism and prevent its errors from keep spreading in the world. It is not about benedicting Russian nukes or legitimizing Putin and his mobsters.
So good news for Ukraine, apparently back in 2013 China signed a treaty with Ukraine saying they gave “Security Guarantees” to Ukraine in case of Nuclear invasion. This is actually a big deal, because they are actual guarantees and not assurances. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/dec/12/inside-china-ukraine-gets-nuke-umbrella/
As you know, the Budapest memo were only non-binding assurances.
The treaty China signed in 2013 was with Ukraine under the pro-Moscow President Yanukovich, not the post-Maidan Ukraine that is independent of Russia.
The Treaty was signed on December 5. The protests in the Maidan Nezalezhnosti had begun two weeks earlier. China wanted Yanukovich to keep a tight grip on the country, hence the inclusion of this condition in the Treaty: that the signatories would not permit “the establishment of any separatist, terrorist and extremist organizations or groups, and any of their acts, to harm each country’s sovereign rights, security and territorial integrity.” Since Ukraine fell in February the following year to just such an assortment of groups (from China’s perspective), the treaty must be considered null and void in China. It was made with a state friendly to its partner Russia, not with a state that Russia regards as hostile.
Now let’s assume for a moment that some clever lawyer will scrutinize the details of the Treaty and discover that it is still binding: do you really think that China would worry about that? – that China would forego its epochal military alliance with Russia just because China’s diplomats forgot to include a get-out clause to deal with the eventualities that transpired the next year?
Mr Nyquist has, for decades, been an advocate for the Golitsyn thesis that the split between the Soviet Union and China was a strategic deception. Even if you haven’t been persuaded of this, the open alliance between Russia and China, dating back to the 1990s should surely convince you that this 2013 Treaty has been of no interest to China for the past eight years.
Ukraine fell to nothing of the sort. Yanukovich was trying to betray Ukraine back under Moscow’s thumb, and the people of Ukraine were having none of that. There was nothing extremist about wanting to preserve the sovereignty of the country you live in, or the freedom you enjoy. Only an idiot would think that’s extremist.
“There was nothing extremist about wanting to preserve the sovereignty of the country you live in, or the freedom you enjoy. Only an idiot would think that’s extremist.”
American politicos and their propaganda machine are quick to promote these two ideals across the world while having no real interest in their fulfillment other than for nefarious purposes. In the same breath they are quick to condemn any such move in America unless it serves the special interest groups acting only as pawns in a gamesmanship war. Would anyone like to respond to this. It is a matter of curiosity on my part.
You are talking about leftists?
No, sir. The leftists are sponsored activists. What I’m referring to is the American patriot in search of a renewed America devoid of all the evil that we are suffering. Sponsored activists have free reign until such time they are no longer useful. The patriots are considered terrorists, yet they want a nation devoid of foreign influence and control, the freedom to prosper and enjoy a happy life. America does not encourage our participation in a struggle to achieve this.
No country will ever be devoid of all evil, I’m afraid. To save our country from communism, however, you will have to join with others and do it yourself, Eddie. We all have to stand up just like the people in Ukraine did back in 2004, 2014 and today. You have to actually put yourself in the communist cross hairs. There’s no other way to fight them.
I am wondering if Putin’s plans have changed slightly to go more towards ownership of the Black Sea. We are celebrating the Gallipoli landings in Australia and New Zealand tomorrow which was a military campaign in the first world war. The intent was to capture the Dardanelles and try to knock Turkey out of the war. We in Australia have a national public holiday and our children march in remembrance of the brave men who fought on both sides.
I am wondering this because at the moment Russia does have the eastern side of the Black Sea under control. The saving grace is that Turkey under Erdogan has ambitions of her own and Turkey is also of course a Nato ally.
If he was able to take nations on the Eastern side of the Black Sea and remove Turkey from the equation he would then only need to make a play for Israel and Egypt to get the Suez canal in order to control world trade.
The problem with this theory is Turkey who I cannot see ever siding with Russia.
Russia’s aim has been to make the Black Sea a “fleet in being”, to coin an old naval term, but maybe he can’t fully accomplish that until such times as Turkey betrays NATO, which it will do in the near future. In the meantime, Putin has been seeking basing rights all around the eastern Med and, as far as I know, also in the Red Sea. This is a very serious geostrategic powerplay that’s now underway.
Once Putin annexed Crimea, it was clear that possession of the remaining Ukrainian coast on the Sea of Azov would be a highly desirable goal, and the siege of Mariupol is a crucial step towards that end.
If Putin can also take the Ukrainian coast to the West of Crimea, presumably laying siege to Odessa, then he will achieve three goals:
1. he will have command of the northern shore of the Black sea, and nearly all of the eastern shore*
2. he will reduce Ukraine to a landlocked state, with grave implications for its trading abilities
3. he will be able to create a land corridor to Moscow-loyal Transnistria, which in turn will give him influence over the rest of Moldova
This will have to wait, presumably, until the ground allows off-road tank advances.
*The Moscow-loyal enclave of Abkhazia deprived Georgia of roughly half of its Black Sea coast
Even if Putin can take Ukraine, he will fail in his effort of having a fleet in being. The Soviets used to have shipping canals that would allow the passage of ships from the white Sea, to the Baltic, or to the Caspian or Azov. Since Russia seems to be unable to replace Moskva in the Black Sea, I’d say those canals were not maintained.
The idea of a fleet in being would not apply to Russia in the Black Sea. The French during the Napoleonic wars had a fleet in being that required the Royal Navy to bottle them up in their ports. At times the French were forced to sortie. Such a sortie led to Trafalgar.
At present, NATO countries control the southern and western littorals of the Black Sea. Anyone of those countries can deny the use of the Black Sea to any of the others. The Black Sea is quite small relative the capabilities of modern air forces and no navy could live long in the Black Sea in a serious war.
At present, I see no way Russia could make the Black Sea anything approaching a Russian Lake.
If they unleash their hypersonic ship killer missile tech and when they succeed with their backchannel efforts to secure a Turkish pivot to Moscow, the Black Sea will be theirs.
I wonder if anyone knows if the Caspian Sea has also been locked down?
I do not think the Caspian Sea has any strategic importance.
For what it’s worth Turkey has been giving combat drones to Ukraine. Apparently they are doing a very good job of shooting down Russian tanks and weaponry. Clearly Erdogan has his own agenda in this conflict, would anyone care to venture a guess as to what that is? Is he really against Russia or is there something else at play here…
https://jamestown.org/program/a-dangerous-drone-for-all-seasons-assessing-the-ukrainian-militarys-use-of-the-bayraktar-tb-2/
https://www.lifesitenews.com/opinion/conservatives-shouldnt-be-fooled-by-vladimir-putin-he-isnt-fighting-globalism/
What I found interesting was the socialist origins of the capitalized (like God) Mother Earth and Nature and the atheistic and humanism of all the fabricated concern for the environment.
Thank you, Sarah. This is very welcome. LifeSite is influential among conservative Catholics, and this article shows that they are not attaching themselves to Archbishop Viganó’s views on the role of Putin and Russia (rebutted recently by Jeff). The article even begins by invoking Golitsyn!
“Conservatives shouldn’t be fooled by Vladimir Putin, he isn’t fighting globalism”
Thank you, Sarah, for sharing this!
This is a good find. Thank you.
Unfortunately here is another conservative who doesn’t quite get it.
https://thenewamerican.com/ukraine-a-deep-state-wonderland/ Video by Alex Newman – Mar 21/22
What’s startling is that Newman is well aware of the fact that Putin is a die-hard KGB agent working with Communist China to implement the NWO. He wrote some long articles in 2014 documenting the Russia-China Communist alliance in Latin America. He even mentioned Golitsyn and the deceptive fall of the Soviet Union at one point.
Where he goes wrong is that he believes Golitsyn’s warning of a phony regime change applies to the Euromaidan revolution therefore the same Communists/globalists are still in charge in Ukraine as in Russia. He hasn’t done a deep dive into Ukrainian society so his analysis focuses on oligarchs and politicians. Also he suffers from a lack of strategic thinking and essentially makes out Ukraine and Russia to be equally bad and globalist and therefore equal threats to non-Deep State America. But if they’re on the same side why are they attacking each other instead of a non-globalist neighboring country? Newman doesn’t say. Half the time I get the impression he thinks Putin is a protégé of Kissinger and the globalists rather than those guys being agents of the Soviet security apparatus which Putin heads. Getting things backward like this leads to a lot of errors and confusion in his analysis.
A lot of the arguments amount to guilt by association. He lists a few pro-Russian/communist Ukrainian oligarchs donating money to US politicians or the Clinton Foundation, George Soros investing $100 million in Ukraine to promote integration with the EU, the infamous leaked Nuland conversation about ‘regime change’ in Ukraine, CIA front groups pouring millions in Ukraine to support democratic activism, and a Stratford intelligence company official calling the Euromaidan the most blatant coup in history.
Some point by point arguments.
– Zelensky is not a patriot, pro-freedom fighter bc is Leftist pro-abortion, pro-LGBT, anti-gun fanatic, a globalist. [He is fighting for his people which makes him a patriot of Ukraine. He does not have to share Western conservative values to be useful to America.] He is a hero of the same people who lied about Covid. [Guilt by association, also simplistic reasoning]
– Zelensky is a member of the WEF, Klaus Schwab brags about how he penetrated every government in the world. Z also once tweeted that he admires Justin Trudeau, who admires Castro and Communist China. [more guilt by association]
– Statues of Lenin were going down and crosses were going up after Euromaidan. [He mentions this in passing but ignores the huge implications. Why would the CIA deep-state coup lead to such a thing if Ukrainians have no agency and are just puppets? Also the leader he’s been bashing for the entire show is not representative of the people.]
– Uses as evidence that Ukraine is an ‘outrageous cesspool of corruption’ the notorious Biden video where he brags about getting the Ukrainian prosecutor fired for investigating Burisma, this is proof of Ukraine govt being puppet of NWO-supporting Biden. [Glosses over the reality that Biden essentially held a country to ransom and the whole incident is more proof of U.S. corruption than Ukrainian corruption]
– Kolomoisky is Zelensky’s patron and leading financier of the Azov battalion that flies Nazi insignia while shelling Russian speaking civilians in eastern Ukraine. [He downplays the terrorist violence carried out by pro-Russian insurgents who used civilians as shields and also downed the MH17 flight. Does not mention that Kolomoisky lived in E. Ukraine and maybe had a personal stake in repelling the pro-Russian insurgents. Grassroots patriotic militias formed because the government’s response was inadequate. And no mention of the fraudulent referendums and voter intimidation.]
– Leaked Nuland call touted as proof of US-backed regime change [Of course he doesn’t play the actual phone call which sounds like a typical conversation bt 2 diplomats rather than a conspiracy. And he’s not curious about who would publicly leak an American diplomatic call and why. The conservative camp interpretation of this phone call is unquestionable.]
– The Nuland call and presence of CIA funded group proves Euromaidan was not an organic color revolution of the Ukrainian people. [But why would Obama who supports the NWO want to replace the pro-Putin Yanukovich? Also no mention of the pro-Russian president breaking his promise to the people and the shooting of unarmed protesters. Later on the podcaster implies that Ukrainians’ desire for closer ties to the EU is illegitimate and fabricated because Soros poured money in Ukraine to promote EU integration. Also if this was all a globalist plot why not keep Ukraine in the Eurasian bloc, why spend money to move it towards the EU?]
– Hunter Biden invested in one of those biolabs. If Nuland says that a bioweapons attack in Ukraine will almost certainly be a false flag attack by Russia, then she is lying. [So if Nuland says something it is automatically a lie because Nuland says it. More puerile simplistic reasoning. Clearly this guy hasn’t read a thing about Soviet military strategy.]
Very good analysis Laura. Alex Newman goes wrong, indeed, because his favored “conspiracy theory” fails to grasp nuances and complexities. He mistakes Moscow’s agents of influence for the true master conspirators of communism. Alex cannot see how profound changes to a nation’s spirit (in Ukraine) has led to astonishing changes in the behavior of its leading people. The Ukrainian Revolution was the most significant political event in the post-Soviet space so far. Ukraine has dared to defy the Soviet revanchists in Moscow. Now Russia is reduced to doing war the old-fashioned way by sending tens of thousands of young men to Ukraine as cannon fodder and by employing Stalinist lies to advance Stalinist ends. People are sometimes shocked by my criticisms of the John Birch Society and well-meaning people like Alex. Sorry to say, these folks have embraced a theory of history which reduces all events to a Western capitalist elite conspiracy. Everything is force-fitted into this theory. In reality, the Western elite is a mixed bag with highly diverse elements following an economic logic which has been contaminated with subversive notions. One must properly trace the origin of those notions and the sociology of the greed which attends the whole. Because the Birch Society never had a grasp of history or political sociology the Society’s larger analysis will always be falsified by actual events and their analysis will fall flat.
You can’t claim Putin is a communist and globalist at the same time. Catholic Church itself is globalist organization, unlike communist movement. Globalism is an ideology of cosmopolitan bourgeoise and European nobility. True communists are against globalism and cosmopolitanism. Stalin sent rootless cosmopolitans to gulag.
Communist internationalism is not the same thing as globalism. Internationalism is cooperation of discrete nations in struggle against imperialism and yes globalism.
Amidst all your smoke and mirrors, Commit, you’ve perhaps revealed more than you wanted: Stalin, you say, “sent rootless cosmopolitans to [the] gulag”.
Either you know much less Soviet history than you’d like us to think you do, or else you are an admirer of Soviet anti-semitism. Tell us which it is – I can’t wait.
I hope Zelensky has a handle on this and there aren’t more moles in his government. This could turn out very bad for Ukraine if the war drags on.
https://t.co/6EHBWCaRDA
Who are the Ukrainian ‘traitors’ passing secrets to Russia?
Top prosecutor becomes most senior official arrested since invasion began
The head of the Mykolaiv district prosecutor’s office was held after “allegedly passing sensitive military information to Russian security services in exchange for his guaranteed safety should the southern region fall to invading forces”, The Times reported.
Reports like this belie the claim that Zelensky’s government is a CIA-globalist puppet, but I have a feeling many conservatives still refuse to let facts get in the way!
The Ukrainians have been good at catching traitors so far.
Nyquist has written in Origins of the Fourth World War, that people will need to stand with its nation’s leadership and policies in order to survive. So the question of morale is important. What is the morale and general attitude of the Russian people towards the war on Ukraine? Do they feel responsible? https://youtu.be/izGQ4hOZWrA
Jeff, not sure if you can comment in regards to the Grand Solar Minimum, David DuByne (Adapt2030) has just released a video talking about increased food prices and possible food rationing in the 2nd half of 2022:
Interesting as always.
UH-OH! THIS COULD BE A MAJOR SECURITY SNAFU BREACH GOOF-UP IN THE HOURS AHEAD:
Ukraine President Zelensky Says He Will Meet With US Secretary of State Blinken And Defense Secretary Austin In Kyiv On Sunday
Daily Mail: Zelensky announces Kyiv meeting with Secretary Of State Blinken, Defense Secretary Austin on Sunday
* Ukraine’s president says he will meet Sunday in Kyiv with the US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense
* President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke of the plans to meet with Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin on Saturday during a press conference
* For weeks, Zelenskyy has urged Western allies to send Ukraine more weapons to counter the Russian invasion
* The announcement comes as many prominent politicians travel into Kyiv for meetings with Ukraine’s president as a show of support
* Earlier this month, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson traveled there in what he called ‘a show of solidarity with the Ukrainian people’
Ukraine’s president says he will meet Sunday in Kyiv with the U.S. secretary of state and secretary of defense.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke of the plans Saturday during a press conference.
He did not immediately share more detail about the visit from Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin.
The White House declined to comment on Saturday. The U.S. State Department also declined comment.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10746879/Zelensky-announces-Kyiv-meeting-Secretary-State-Blinken-Defense-Secretary-Austin-Sunday.html
(I am sure the US Secret Service who are responsible for the protection of Blinken and Austin are not happy that this visit is being broadcast to the world a day before it is to happen. And in a war zone at that).
Ukraine President Zelensky Says He Will Meet With US Secretary of State Blinken And Defense Secretary Austin In Kyiv On Sunday:
Ukraine battered again; Zelenskyy says US officials to visit — AP
Zelensky says Blinken and Austin will visit Ukraine on Sunday — CNN
U.S. Envoys Blinken, Austin to Visit Ukraine, Zelenskiy Says — Bloomberg
Top U.S. officials heading to Kyiv as war shifts focus — Politico
Blinken, Austin to travel to Ukraine to meet with Zelensky — The Hill
Blinken, Austin to Visit Kyiv Sunday, Zelenskyy Says — VOA
Blinken, Austin to be first top US officials to meet Zelenskyy in Ukraine — Insider
Zelensky says he’ll meet Blinken, Austin in Kyiv on Sunday — Axios
Just came across this article, wanted to share.
“VLADIMIR PUTIN’S plot to invade Moldova has been revealed as Russia outlines the “second stage” of its brutal war in Ukraine”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1599493/vladimir-putin-invasion-plot-Transnistria-second-stage-donbas-war-crimea
The article talks about taking Transnistria, which really never left the Soviet Union. It was never part of independent Moldova and the Soviet troops remained there. So who’s oppressing the Russian-speakers?
“Control over the South of Ukraine is another outlet to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.”
Interestingly, there is a 2015 PEW poll on Soviet nostalgia that shows about 70% of people in both Russia and Moldova thought the breakup of the Soviet Union was a bad thing. If this is still true then Russia will have an easier time trying to take Moldova before all of Ukraine.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/06/29/in-russia-nostalgia-for-soviet-union-and-positive-feelings-about-stalin/
We can see from the Russian rhetoric a totalitarian slant, bizarre mythologizing and exaggeration, outright lies and deluded thinking. To what end? Certainly, there are larger objectives referred to, and further stages — with future attacks on other countries planned. America is the final objective, but only if China does its part.
Maybe “the elite” (whoever, or whatever, they are – a monk who saw Justinian reported that it was “a demon on the throne”) is planning to use Russia to get rid of “Trumpism” in the US, by nuking us. There are precedents for this.
The people of Byzantium, tired of the projects of Justinian (architectural works, and reconquering the western Mediterranean)(now it’s transhumanism and space colonization) had a middle-class revolt whose slogan was “Nika” (now it’s “MAGA”). Justinian used foreign troops – Huns and others – to kill them all when they were in “the Hippodrome” (now it’s “the internet”).
Procopius says Justinian and Theodora were obsessed with mentally probing “interviews” of everyone in the empire (now it’s chipping everyone). Justinian’s totalitarianism wasn’t coming from the Huns and ours isn’t coming primarily from the Russians.
It seems to have been a terrible mistake by Russia to let Ukraine get away and now to have to spend so much of their military, to get back a destroyed Ukraine. Maybe that’s not what it’s about. It’s catch and release, letting Ukraine go on purpose to use them as a sparring partner for a tuneup bout later. The Russian troops are learning to be ruthless. They are to do to MAGAmerica what Justinian’s Huns did to the Nika folks in the Hippodrome.
It is not about Russia. The new religion, socialism, aka communism, is the common disease. It is the New Religion militant. Russia happens to be the motherland of socialism. As American communists have said for decades, Moscow is the headquarters of the communist movement’s general staff. The communist movement consist of a small number of communists and a vast number of useful idiots who sometimes break loose from control. It is a complicated muddle, yet it slowly grinds forward.
Interesting comment coming from a cancel culture censor of fundamental Christians.
It you use this forum to attack other Christians (like Catholics) I will delete your comments. I am not here to mediate another Thirty Years War. Such discussions are off topic.
Hello Jeff, do you have any thoughts on what might happen to Sweden/Finland? Russia has warned these countries several times not to join nato, I beleive the last warning was a few days ago from Medvedev who said something to the effect that there would be military consequences… what do you think that might mean?
Sweden produces roughly 90% of the iron in the EU along with alot of other important metals – and so does Finland to a lesser degree. If Russia were to bomb this mining-industry it would be a hard hit on the economy of western Europe I think… and they probably could get away with it easlily.
Russia sees Finland as a threat because of its proximity to Leningrad and the military bases of the Kola Peninsula. In 1939-40, 200,000 Finns inflicted — according to Khrushchev — a million casualties (dead and wounded) on the Soviet invaders. That included 250,000 dead. I do not think Medvedev would make such threats without the idea of using nukes. Any threat of a widened war by Russia, from now on, must be understood as a nuclear threat.