In communist regimes crises are usually hidden from the outside world; because of the absence of democratic process and the suppression of internal opposition, popular political, social, and economic discontents accumulate and threaten to develop into serious upheavals of revolts of the entire population against the system as a whole .
Anatoliy Golitsyn
The following podcast is sponsored by the Conservatives 4 Ukraine Facebook site, https://www.facebook.com/groups/747935097007683.
Given the events of a week ago, I reached out to Trevor Loudon and Clare Lopez to do a podcast about the mutiny in Russia and the war in Ukraine.
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319 responses to “Mutiny in Russia, War in Ukraine: A Panel Discussion”
Soviet Communist Party Central Committee analyst Fyodor Burlatsky was onto something when he commented back in the late 1980s “In our hearts we prefer the Democrats; in our minds, the Republicans.” Valenta, Jiri. “Bush’s Eastern Backers; US Presidential Election; Commentary” The Times (London) November 8, 1988
Nevin, do you still do a program, and if so, on what platform?
I’ve been taking a break for a few months. Still doing research and have some writing projects in the works. I may relaunch my podcast as the Politically Homeless Podcast, because that reflects my place in the contemporary American political scene.
The Soviets got more done, in terms of tricking us, when Reagan and G.H.W. Bush were in office than when Jimmy Carter was in office.
Clowns like Zhirinovsky were used to “scare” the West as well as to prevent the emergence of serious and genuine Russian nationalists like Gen. Alexander Lebed who died in an helicopter crash..
I always wondered about that crash.
I remember having seen Lebed accusing FSB for the apartment bombings in Moscow in 1999
Lebed was surprisingly outspoken. But then, good soldiers generally have this trait. Bad soldiers do not.
He compared himself to Gen. Augusto Pinochet, I don’t think that KGB and CPSU elites liked this comparaison 🙂
I think Lebed was privy to things, as he predicted the second Chechen War on paratrooper day in Moscow. So he had the inside track, but he had loose lips.
I think the crash was planned. Lebed talked too much.
Lukashenko must know that if nuclear weapons are fired from his country, the country will probably be destroyed. Is he ready to risk his life so that there can be a peace conference regarding Ukraine ? We can doubt that..
I don’t know if Belarus would be destroyed in that event, but the damage could be extensive.
Some interesting tidbits on Prigozhin:
Putin tied Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted in November 2022 “We have interfered (in US elections), we are interfering and we will continue to interfere. Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do.” He also elaborated that
“During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once.” Reuters July 11, 2022
According to documents elaborating the communications between associates of a Putin linked oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, a strategy was laid out to radicalize and polarize Americans in 2018. One document indicated that President Trump’s election “deepened conflicts in American society” and suggested that, if successful, the influence project would “undermine the country’s territorial integrity and military and economic potential.” The document suggested proposals to recruit African Americans to camps in Africa “for combat prep and training in sabotage.” Those recruits would then be sent back to America to foment violence and work to establish a pan-African state in the South. This blueprint, entitled “Development Strategy of a Pan-African State on U.S. Territory,” strategized using poor and formerly jailed African-Americans “who have experience in organized crime groups” as well as members of “radical black movements for participation in civil disobedience actions.” The goal of this Russian plan was to “destabilize the internal situation in the U.S.” Richard Engel, Kate Benyon-Tinker and Kennett Werner “Russian documents reveal desire to sow racial discord—and violence—in the U.S.” NBC News May 20, 2019
I respect Clare and her service to our country. Her reporting of Chinese infiltration across our southern border is groundbreaking and critical to our cause. However, Trevor’s analysis is much more historically sound given the history of Soviet and Russian deception operations. Edward Jay Epstein in his book Deception catalogues how the Soviets deliberately understated their WMD programs in order to place themselves into a hypothetical advantage if they sought to unleash a first strike against the United States. Plus, the US would then slack off their preparations if they were led to believe that the USSR was technologically far behind in weapons systems.
Not to mention the Trust Operation during most of the 1920s, when the West was led to believe that the young USSR was falling apart. Oops…we were badly misled on that.
During the 1990s, I remember how we were treated to images of rusting Russian military equipment. We were told the Cold War was over and we disinvested in our military modernization in many areas. Yet, the USSR continued massive R&D and production of strategic weapons and new generation tanks.
I respect our intelligence personnel for their service. I mean that. However, they are largely (though not entirely) paralyzed by a groupthink predicated on wishful thinking. Plus, all communist (and previously Axis powers) countries are extremely opaque where decision-making is not only secret but also compartmentalized. That’s why we have to draw upon historical examples to aid in our analysis and help propose policies.
This is from a paper that I am working on regarding intelligence failures in the US. When Angleton was being pushed out of the CIA Counterintelligence Department, Raymond Rocca, the Head of Research of CIA Counterintelligence briefed the incoming CI Chief, George Kalaris on Soviet intelligence practices and strategies. Rocca offered to brief Kalaris on the deception operations of the Lenin era. Kalaris ignorantly responded, “But that all happened a half century ago. I want to know what’s happening now!” Kalaris could not comprehend that our adversaries would reuse old strategies to deceive and ultimately defeat the West through disinformation. If an intelligence strategy was successful, why wouldn’t Moscow try to use them again? Tom Mangold Cold Warrior: James Jesus Angleton : the CIA’s master spy hunter (Simon & Schuster, 1991)
Institutions rely on a fixed bag of tricks, typically.
Thank you for your comments here.
“I respect Clare and her service to our country. Her reporting of Chinese infiltration across our southern border is groundbreaking and critical to our cause.”
I don’t know who was first, but Mike Ferris (Coffee and a Mic podcast) has interviewed Michael Yon and other war correspondents about their experiences at the Darien Gap and Chinese involvement. Yon was intermittently breaking off, his attention drawn to worrisome sounds and movements, etc.
Some experts think that the war in Ukraine will end in like 3 months with a stalemate which means ceasefire, Russia keeps what it controls, Ukraine does the same. Ukraine could then be given security guarantees (don’t know what that really means tough). What do you think of this stalemate idea ?
A while back a PLA military think tank predicted the war in Ukraine would be over this summer.
Where did you read this?
“After avoiding getting too deeply involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine over the past year, China suddenly offered a peace proposal last month. Chinese military experts’ prediction that the war will come to an end this summer is likely behind this about-face.”
I read this to mean the peace proposal came about because of the military experts’ prediction, and not vice-versa.
I’m not positive this is the original article I saw, because I recall the term “PLA think tank.” But this one is similar:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Behind-Ukraine-peace-proposal-China-foresees-end-to-war-in-summer
This story is from March and is of no significance as China’s simulation is not to be trusted. China was trying to get a good deal for Russia.
Jeff, I took this as a sign that the “PLA think tank” might have inside knowledge of Russia’s plans to use nuclear weapons this summer. But would those in the AMS not be in a high enough position to be privy to that knowledge?
The Chinese are liars. Do you really think they accurately forecasted a Russian military advance in the summer? I don’t.
Well, it is going to be an odd coincidence if the war does in fact end this summer. And I wouldn’t put it past the CCP to make a mistake— especially given all the moving parts of that regime. But I’m certainly no expert, so I trust your judgment that it was simply China trying to get a good deal for Russia.
When entering into negotiations, the communists love telling you what is inevitable. So you’d better make a deal now. I grew up seeing this in the Vietnam War. Diplomatic pressure was applied, with protests from the anti-war movement at home. We were told that we were losing the war. It was all nonsense. The communist side lost battle after battle.
Stalemate is bad for Ukraine. Russia keeps all this territory she took. Ukraine would never get it back.
“In December, the AMS completed a simulation on the Ukraine conflict, resulting in an astonishing finding, according to sources close to the Chinese government. The war will draw to a close around summer 2023, the simulation indicated, with Russia having the upper hand.
“Both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be too exhausted to sustain the war past the summer, the report said.
“It is possible that the results were skewed in favor of Russia to please China’s Moscow-leaning leadership. But coincidentally, the $45 billion aid package passed last December in the U.S. is set to expire this summer too.
“The Republicans now hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and some party members are skeptical of the generous aid being granted to Ukraine.
“I don’t know what will happened to U.S. aid from fall,” said a senior official at the Japanese prime minister’s office.
“The U.S. provides half of the aid that Ukraine receives. The argument that cease-fire talks will get underway before that aid is terminated is not without merit.
“After hearing the AMS’ prediction, Beijing crafted a peace proposal in time for the one-year anniversary of the war. It aims to achieve three goals, including the restoration of relations with Europe.”
AMS is “Academy of Military Sciences… a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) think tank”:
https://www.chinasresourcerisks.com/post/what-china-s-position-paper-on-ukraine-tells-us-about-China
(This may be the original article I saw, that linked to the second article I read.)
This is too optimistic for Russia.
Even if they use nuclear weapons to bring Europe to its knees?
The Chinese said nothing about Russia using nukes.
A couple of blogs ago I wrote: “I didn’t catch his name, but last night a former senior advisor to Putin, who now lives in the US, was on Laura Ingraham. He was emphasizing how much fear Putin was feeling.
This seems consistent with Greynight’s theory.”
I’m not 100 percent certain, but I believe the gentleman on Laura Ingraham’s show was Mr. Andrei Illarionov, who was on the Committee on the Present Danger panel with you last week. It appears that he has Frank Gaffney’s trust, so I may have been premature in my conclusions before.
It does seem odd to me that many of us are concluding that the mutiny was theater, and a man that was so close to Putin and his circle for an extended period of time seems to be taking the mutiny at face value.
I must have missed what Greyknight’s theory was. Is it on this post or a previous one?
Two blogs ago: https://jrnyquist.blog/2023/06/24/the-mutiny-in-russia/
He was essentially suggesting that Putin’s “fear” was theater.
Was Putin afraid? How can you tell? Watch his speeches and explain how fear is expressed in them.
Thank you, @DAL.
I have interviewed Illarionov. But he really does not know Putin well. He predicted, very definitely, that Putin would not invade Ukraine in 2022. For someone who “knows” Putin, this was very poorly considered. Naturally, what I have said is there are two ways to look at this mutiny. It was real or it was a provocation. We do not know definitely which it was. I am not saying it was a provocation, but I think we should worry that it was and take appropriate measures. What makes the outlandish possible is the outlandish fact of Wagner going to Belarus. Remember, I did not give credence to the provocation theory until I realized Prigozhin and his troops were being sent to Belarus. It is now a credible theory. In thinking this through, entertaining an idea is not to adopt it as holy writ. But coincidences in Russia are red flags.
I may be simple minded. But if Putin remains president and Progozhin remains alive, then I say it was all theater.
That means Illarianov is wrong. But he could be in on it. Or truly believe what he is saying.
Happy Independence Day to everyone! 247 years makes pretty much a full Pluto cycle, right?
Karl Ratzer was born in Vienna, Austria, on JULY 4TH, 1950. He spent most of the 1970s in the United States, playing with some of the best of the best, but returned to Austria around 1980 as he had become homesick. Yet, he clearly has remained an American at the same time, and there’s no doubt that he is still the leading jazz musician in Austria!
In other words: Happy birthday, Karl Ratzer!
Here is his official YouTube channel. It has tons of his material there. Check it out, everybody:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGordwVGCK0h2IMDFdNNm6g/playlists
I have a video for jour Jeff 🙂 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z77JFw2D6f8
Wow! 😳
That was prescient!
As I have not watched this show, some of my friends remarked on it when it aired many years ago.
Jeff, I sent you Rebekah Koffler’s email address a few days ago. Did you definitely receive my email? If not I can send it again.
I will look.
Just came across this on Twitter:
@Heidi_Cuda
“Wagner is not ‘a private military company’ but a secret sub-division of the Main Directorate of the GRU (formerly the Main Intelligence Directorate), according to Artem Kruglov, a Russian blogger…currently in hiding.—@ZarinaZabrisky @BylineTimes
Andrei Soldatov, one of the leading experts on the Russian secret services, confirmed that Prigozhin works for the GRU. The historian Yuri Felshtinsky says Prigozhin most likely was an FSB agent recruited in the penal colony serving a nine-year sentence in the 1980s.—@BylineTimes
Felshtinsky argues that while in prison, Prigozhin could only be recruited by the FSB, and that the FSB would never allow a GRU agent to serve as Putin’s chef. Multiple experts consulted confirmed that Prigozhin works for the Russian secret services.—@ZarinaZabrisky @BylineTimes
https://twitter.com/heidi_cuda/status/1673342617986256897?s=46
If this is not new info, then I apologize; it was news to me.
I have heard this before, and I have heard Wagner referred to as a GRU operation. There is no way to comment intelligently on this. At the very least, Wagner is probably directed by someone — FSB, GRU, MOD? It is unclear to me. But Prigozhin became a trusted person, and I suspect he is still trusted.
I had understood that Wagner was an FSB op. It probably doesn’t matter much as to effect.
This is the original article:
https://bylinetimes.com/2023/06/26/the-wagner-musicians-and-circus-tanks/
It is ominous that Wagner PMC is referred to as
“the Musicians.” Viktor Suvorov said that the period just before World War III was known as the “Overture.” Who plays the Overture? Musicians. This jumped out at me in this article.
PS – And why would Wagner damage a tank between circus advertisements? Is this a form of signaling to those who understand such signals?
That is ominous. I have a comment awaiting moderation. Not sure why it was flagged.
Not sure either. I say a check mark on it. I clicked to allow. My frustration is that sometimes the system puts the brown check back on it and prevents posting.
I HAVE TO WONDER IF THE POSSIBILTY EXISTS THAT THE RUSSIANS MAY HAVE A NUKE ALREADY IN VILNIUS FOR A LITTLE WHILE NOW, AS A BACK UP TO THE ANTI-MISSILE UPGRADE FOR NATO SUMMIT?
Germany to move Slovakia-based Patriot system to Lithuania to protect NATO summit
Reuters
May 26, 20231:42 PM EDT Updated a month ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/germany-move-slovakia-based-patriot-system-lithuania-protect-nato-summit-2023-05-26/
German missiles arrive in Lithuania to protect NATO summit:
The top-level meeting of the Western military alliance will take place there on July 11 and 12. Lithuania borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Russia’s close ally Belarus. According to the Lithuanian army, this is the first deployment of Patriot missiles in the country. The system will be operated by German soldiers.
DPA WORLD
Published June 29,2023
https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2023/06/29/german-missiles-arrive-in-lithuania-to-protect-nato-summit
Or that there are hypersonic missiles in Osipovichi, since it’s doubtful that Patriot missiles could stop them.
One ought to be very close to get through the defense.
“He says they’ve lost 400,000 men. If so, why haven’t they collapsed? And why are you for Russia? Please explain.”
They have probably lost much more, close to 1 million. I am for Russia because I hate what western imperialism is doing to my country.
Our workers bleed to fund western rentier classes. It can be easily proven by wealth transfer data. Russia stands for more fair system.
The Soviet Union collapsed because of the trash you push. No country can live on your ideology as it takes nothing less than tyranny to hold such a country together.
You don’t mind what Russian imperialism might do to your country? Or the suffering in Ukraine?
Ukraine is a multi national construct, unlike my country. If Ukrainian speakers gave up on controlling the Russian speaking areas, they would be fine.
The Russian-speaking Ukrainians are among those fighting hardest against Russia. You do realize this, right? Zelenskyy himself is a Russian-speaker.
Ukraine exists as it is because of the referendum establishing independence. Each Oblast that voted for independence became part of Ukraine. Only Crimea was not majority Ukrainian, and it voted 54% to be part of Ukraine.
Like so much else you post, your post is a lie.
Ukraine hasn’t lost even 100,000. You are for Russia because of your ideology. Your country is the result of its people, not western imperialism. Imperialism is simply your bug bear to hurl at people when you have no ability to explain what is actually going on.
Putin, Xi Speak in First Summit Since Wagner Mercenary Uprising in Russia
https://www.theepochtimes.com/putin-xi-speak-in-first-summit-since-wagner-mercenary-uprising-in-russia_5373220.html?src_src=News&src_cmp=breaking-2023-07-04-one
Interesting article.
So very thankful to live in the great USA! Happy Independence Day, everyone!
Happy 4th to Jeff and everyone !
Its more expensive, but electronics can be hardened against EMP and solar radiation. They do not have to be as vulnerable as they are.
The bottom line after watching this discussion is that no one knows for sure what really happened in Russia or what’s next. Interesting thoughts, but just speculation, and often conflicting.
PS – Is the woman Claire Lopez or Caitlyn Brooks? Confusing.
Clare Lopez.
The events of last weekend were clearly signaling some change in strategy. The last time something this major happened, Russia invaded Ukraine. The time before, the US completely locked down because of Covid.
Felshtinsky is clearly onto something. If nothing happens, then it’s likely because Russia changed their plans because the word got out online (through media such as this blog).
If the missile defenses are being strengthened around Vilnius, for me that is further confirmation that there’s a serious threat.
At this point, if we get to October 1 without a major crisis, I’ll be extremely thankful & relieved.
And could it really be coincidence that Prigozhin ended up banished to Osipovichi, only 15 miles away from the nuclear weapons storage facility? Putin allegedly wants him dead but must have sent the worst FSB agents in the world to take him out.