What Jeff says – there’s a lot of truth to what he says – but that doesn’t discount the fact that the Chinese Communist Party has invested in a quite large military conventional force…. I think the Chinese Navy as it is comprised today … and this new national mobilization order … all lead me to conclude they are preparing for a conventional strike to take Taiwan.
Capt. James Fanell
Capt. Fanell’s response to my comments on Bannon’s War Room is a good starting-point for discussing more significant questions of military strategy. My argument goes something like this: The CCP’s investment in a large conventional force does not, in itself, rule out the possibility of an all-arms nuclear war. In fact, China and Russia have built their forces to wage such war. Sixty years ago, Soviet military strategists under Marshal V.D. Sokolovskii devised the theory that nuclear missile weapons are the decisive weapons of the next world war. It is my position that this philosophy and its underlying science of war is operative in China and Russia today.
One might ask why today’s Russian and Chinese tank and infantry formations are not trained to the same standard as Western armies. Russian conventional airpower in Ukraine is not being used as American airpower would be used under similar circumstances. Why? The reasons for this are found in Sokolovskii. Tanks and infantry are not the most important troops in a future war, he says. “Hence missile troops receive priority…. In time they will become the basic force, capable of carrying out any operation to destroy enemy targets. To a considerable degree they will replace artillery and aviation in bombarding the front; for some purposes they will completely replace artillery and aviation.”[ii]
Sokolovskii edited a book titled Soviet Military Strategy. In that book it says, “Destruction of the enemy will be achieved primarily by nuclear weapon fire. In close combat operations, when it is impossible to use nuclear weapons, conventional weapons will be used….” [i] Here is a philosophy of war and a theoretical guidebook. Western politicians and experts have ignored this book because America’s economic system is grounded in economic optimism which cannot, in practical terms, cope with Sokolovskii’s premises.
And why wouldn’t they? According to Sokolovskii’s text, “The laws of strategy are objective and apply inexorably….”[iii] The text then refers to “strategic principles which V.I. Lenin formulated in his time.” According to Lenin, “wars are won by those nations which possess the greatest resources and whose populations are strongest and have [the] most endurance….” Nuclear weapons are, in and of themselves, a supreme test of a system’s endurance. At every “given historical moment” the nature of war changes. According to Sokolovskii’s text, “The appearance of missiles and nuclear weapons radically changed previous concepts of the nature of war. Modern missile warfare is incomparably more destructive and deadly than previous wars. The massive use of missile and nuclear weapons make it possible, within a short time, to eliminate either one country or a number of countries from the war, even those with relatively large territories, well-developed economies, and populations of the order of tens of millions.” [iv]
Before we can safely assume that Sokolovskii’s text is nonsense, the following points should be considered: (1) All of today’s senior military leaders in China and Russia studied Sokolovskii’s text in their respective military academies. This text oriented them to the idea of fighting and winning a future nuclear war. (2) Prospective Western military leaders were not oriented to fighting and winning such a war; (3) In Russia and China today the mass production of advanced types of strategic missile weapons continues while America is still relying on 1960s-vintage Minuteman III missiles. (4) The United States has therefore fallen behind – decades behind – in the deployment of missile weapons. (See comments made on this subject by Congressional military advisor, Dr. Peter Vincent Pry.) [v]
Russian and Chinese ground and naval forces still have an important role to play in a nuclear war. According to Sokolovskii’s text, “Only modern ground forces, adequate in size, armament, and organization, can execute … a number of missions. Theirs is the extremely important role of achieving the final war aims.” And what are those aims? “The missile forces provide basic firepower for the ground troops [and ships]. They will be the main means used to clear the way for tank and motorized troops to carry out broad maneuvers and rapid penetration in depth.” (p. 341)
It is in this context that we must analyze incoming reports of a Chinese mobilization for war. Let us also acknowledge the Chinese heroes who are sending us intelligence on CCP war preparations. Information about this mobilization is being disseminated by Lude Media which strongly opposes the Communist Party’s war plans. Lude media has extensive networks of freedom-loving persons in China. Chinese patriots, opposed to communism, have risked their lives to smuggle a 56-minute audio recording of a military-civil standing committee which discusses provincial war preparations in Guangdong.[vi] At present I am in contact with Dr. Li-Meng Yan who not only briefed me on the 56-minute audio recording of the Guangdong CCP Standing Committee, but has generously provided additional information about the role that Russia might play in the coming war. Dr. Li-Meng Yan has written, “The audio [of the CCP mobilization meeting] is obtained by many brave Chinese people via a special intelligence operation organized by @lude_media on 14 May, 2022 – at the cost of lives! We Chinese are fighting against CCP! Xi’s People’s War will fail!” [vii]
We must not waste the efforts of these brave people to warn us. Even now they operate under the threat of death. In recent years the Pentagon and the White House have not fully appreciated warnings from native Chinese sources. In fact, our national leaders have misunderstood the military philosophy of the Chinese and Russian generals. I am also afraid they will misunderstand what Beijing’s military-civil war mobilization signifies. Such a mobilization is not likely to signify a mere conventional invasion of Taiwan. An invasion of Taiwan, were it to occur, would only be the beginning. More probably, Taiwan would be bypassed and blockaded – forced to surrender after the destruction of the U.S. Navy.
A number of points argue against a Chinese conventional invasion of Taiwan: (1) Such an invasion is by no means certain to succeed because Taiwan is so heavily defended, with 170,000 active-duty defenders and 1.6 million reservists; (2) Even if an invasion were successful, China’s economy would be wrecked by Western sanctions; (3) A conventional attack on Taiwan would cause the United States and Japan to build more warships, missiles and nuclear weapons. This would be an unmitigated disaster for China. (4) China would end up as an isolated pariah nation.
Unless we assume the Chinese leaders are imbeciles, they will not launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Strategically, there is no upside for them in such a move. Furthermore, we have already seen the failed assault on Kiev by Russian troops in Ukraine. We also know that the Chinese Army shares certain similarities with the Russian Army. Under current circumstances, an opposed amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be the largest amphibious invasion in history. Yet the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has never conducted an opposed amphibious operation of any size. A PLA invasion of Taiwan would be like the Americans invading the Japanese home islands without having learned the lessons from previous invasions in Sicily, Normandy, Saipan, etc.
The best way to defeat Taiwan is to defeat the U.S. Navy and force Taiwan to surrender by using a blockade. This method is so simple and effective, in fact, that PLA strategists would not fail to use it. Since China must defeat America itself, or suffer isolation as a pariah nation, then China must proceed to nuclear strikes on American military targets in conjunction with her Russian ally. Short of this, a war against Taiwan does not make any strategic sense.
Chinese officials are recorded saying that they are mobilizing for “the final war.” What they are preparing must live up to this characterization. It follows that they are preparing to target the United States with missiles and troops. First, they must destroy America’s land-based missile forces and bomber forces, track down American ballistic missile submarines, and withstand an American nuclear retaliation from the surviving American missiles. This is how a world war is fought in the nuclear age.
To achieve surprise, the PLA and their allies must eliminate all American early warning satellites in advance of an attack. To assist with this, they might attempt to trigger riots in the United States through their fifth columnists. Whatever domestic mayhem might serve as a screen, the procedure for defeating early warning systems is described by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry in his Volume Two on The Strategic Nuclear Balance, titled Nuclear Wars: Exchanges and Outcomes.
Unfortunately, an attack from Russia and China “out of the black” is possible at the present time – Dr. Pry has argued – because our nuclear alert level has not been raised. We have war in Eastern Europe together with a mobilization of China in the Far East. Add to this whatever happens in the Persian Gulf between Iran and Israel. “Contrary to what is widely assumed,” wrote Pry, “in response to crisis or war, the U.S. National Command Authority may not generate U.S. strategic forces, but may be reluctant to do so from fear of escalating the situation into a nuclear confrontation. Nuclear inferiority would reinforce a nation’s reluctance to generate its strategic forces, as this would increase the risk of provoking nuclear escalation and redound to the strong nation’s advantage.”[viii] And this is exactly what we see unfolding today.
China and Russia are allies. Anyone who thinks Russia will accommodate us in Eastern Europe is mistaken. Russian and Chinese nuclear and conventional forces will be coordinating their operations. Our nuclear posture today is one that invites surprise attack. One only has to look at the statements of President Biden. The sad fact is, all military pundits and most American strategists regard nuclear war as insane. No enemy would carry out nuclear attacks on the American homeland. This is wishful thinking that has no place in military analysis. Russian and Chinese authorities have never said, within their in-house military writings, that nuclear war is unwinnable or represents the end of the world.
The American people have been living in a fool’s paradise. People in China are trying to warn us. Will we listen or turn a deaf ear?
Notes and Links
[i] V.D. Sokoloskii translated by Dinerstein, Goure and Wolfe, Soviet Military Strategy (Originally published by the Military Publishing House of the Ministry of Defense of the USSR), p. 343.
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Ibid, p. 90.
[iv] Ibid, pp. 92-93.
[v] Dr. Peter Pry on How and Why Russia Could Win A Fast and Decisive Nuclear War Against America | Frank Speech the Home of Free Speech.
[vi] 路德社lude media (@lude_media) / Twitter
[vii] Dr. Li-Meng YAN on Twitter: “English version of PLA’s audio is https://t.co/LWpxlmmGiO The audio is obtained by many brave Chinese people via a special intelligence operation organized by @lude_media on 14 May, 2022 – at the cost of lives! We Chinese are fighting against CCP! Xi’s People’s War will fail!” / Twitter.
[viii] Peter Vincent Pry, Nuclear Wars: Exchanges and Outcomes (New York: Taylor and Francis, 1990), p. 9.
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219 responses to “Nuclear vs. Conventional War”
BREAKING, The FBI Maintains a Workspace, Including Computer Portal, Inside the Law Firm of Perkins Coie – The Ramifications are Significant
May 31, 2022 | Sundance |
There is very little that surprises me, but this is completely stunning. An FBI whistleblower came forth to inform Rep Jim Jordan and Rep Matt Gaetz that the FBI maintains a workspace inside the law firm of Perkins Coie. {Direct Rumble Link}
In response to a letter sent by Rep. Matt Gaetz and Jim Jordan, Perkins Coie, the legal arm of the DNC and Hillary Clinton, admitted they have been operating an FBI workspace in their Washington D.C. office since 2012. Pay attention to that date, it matters.
CTH has long claimed there was some kind of direct portal link between the Clinton campaign team and the FBI databases. There were too many trails of extracted non-minimized research evidence in the hands of the Clinton team that CTH could not trace to a transferring FBI official. If Perkins Coie operated a portal in their office that allowed them to conduct search queries of American citizens, then everything would make sense. That access portal is exactly what is being claimed and admitted in this report.
The start date of 2012 is important for several reasons, not the least of which is FISA presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer criticizing the scale and scope of unlawful FBI database access going back to exactly 2012. Keep in mind a FISA-702 search, is simply an unlawful FBI warrantless electronic search of an American (“702” represents the American citizen) into the central database -maintained by the NSA- that contains all electronic data and communication.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/31/breaking-the-fbi-maintains-a-workspace-including-computer-portal-inside-the-law-firm-of-perkins-coie-the-ramifications-are-significant/
Where I live in central Iowa, most of the corn now is planted (though few soybeans are). Many, maybe most, cornfields also have been treated with herbicide by now. So the corn crop of the US is basically in. Maybe the plan is to invade the US with millions of troops in late summer and let them forage on this corn. Enemy patrols, small arms, and drones could prevent our own people from foraging.
Like all staple foods, corn has some deficiencies: deficiency in lysine and in Vitamin C being I think the most important. But these deficiencies take awhile to produce an effect, and can be more or less compensated by small amounts of other commonplace foods. If ripe corn is equated to pure starch (very roughly, this is true) then a ten million man army needing 3000 calories per day could get their calories from 7.5 thousand metric tons of starch per day, or very roughly that much corn. That’s too much to move across the Pacific by air. Normally it could be moved by ship but shipping might be unavailable in a nuclear world war.
They would want to invade sometime after the corn crop is beginning to become edible, or at least is “in”, that is, really requiring no further input of labor by farmers. They would want to invade before it’s harvested and moved to central locations that could be guarded by US defenders and in any case would be less conveniently distributed for a large, dispersed army to consume.
At one time in Mexico the government arranged for corn to be planted in public areas such as the sides of roads, as a fallback food source for the poor. So, mass foraging on corn (maize) is not unprecedented.
I think that what we see in Ukraine is a theatre. Because Russia still uses weapons from WW2 like machine guns or Mosin Nagant sniper rifles. Nobody can convince me that the Russian army which has so many new weapons, which became so strong in the past 14 years since the end of the Georgia war and which is internationally recognized by many experts as an army which can reach the Baltic States´ capitals for less than 60 hours to be so weak. This is not the First Chechen war. Even during the First Chechen war the Russian army was not that weak, because the Russian officers were corrupted and the corruption is the main reason why the Russian army lost in Chechnya during the 90s. Not the equipment or the level of training in the Armed Forces of RF. What we have now is an army which is not that corrupted like in the 1990s and which sends with trains to Donbass T-62 tanks. The T-62 tanks has stopped being produced in 1975 and the Kremlin sends so many pieces of old equipment. And by the way the majority of the Russian soldiers are not even Russians. They come from the Far East, from Caucasus and from different republics in the Russian Federation and some of them have even Central Asian origin. And these soldiers are used as a cannon fodder. Russia wants to get rid of old equipment and non-Russian soldiers who they don’t need. The Chekists who now rule Russia are taught to provoke fake wars and to create fake opposition. By the way many people consider that Zelensky is FSB agent and serves the Kremlin just like his advisers. And last thing I will say is that Sergey Korotkikh, who is the former leader of Azov Batallion, is deeply connected the regimes of Lukashenko and Putin
According to Perestroika Deception, the Chechen war was a deception. If Ukraine was defeated rapidly, without much losses, the anti-russian sentiment would not be broken. Nothing better for Russia than NATO using Ukrainian military as cannon fodder. Would make them reconsider their love of NATO. The same happened in Chechnya, people welcomed peace after long war. The same happened after total defeat of Nazi Germany.
A dark possibly is Ukraine surrenders, is integrated back into the Soviet Union, and now they have modern western weapons which we donated to them.
Yes, that could be a real problem. Which is why at this point half-hearted help to Ukraine might be worse than never having provided help at all.
Ironically, one reason why Ukraine has been so successful is because it used to be an integral part of the Soviet Union. They know better than anyone how the Russians fight and how the KGB/FSB operates. As Jeff pointed out on the John Moore show, their intelligence services haven’t been penetrated by the Russians like a lot of Western ones. If their country survives they could provide invaluable help to Western intelligence agencies in rooting out Russian/Chinese spies.
The Ukrainians could prove to be very important allies in the long run.
Stefcho, you are being unserious.
Russia’s most elite units were decimated in the first month of the war. They are using ethnic minorities because regular Russians aren’t that interested in signing up, and poorer minorities can be incentivized to go.
As for the T-62 tanks, they are pulling the few that can still function out of depots because the losses of T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s have been staggering (along with their experienced crews). Go look at this website, which documents ONLY what he can visually confirm: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html The actual total losses could be 25 to 50% higher.
Russia’s newest tank, the T-14, was never mass produced and there are only about 10 specimens.
No, this war has been an unmitigated disaster for the Russians, and it’s got a long ways to go.
Sometimes you really CAN believe your eyes.
OK, but why many people accused Putin that he uses ethnic minorities in Russia as a cannon fodder? I doubt that the reason is that the Russians are not interested in fighting because they still live in WW2 and when they are told by the Kremlin media that Russia is fighting Neo-Nazis in Ukraine, they immediately support Putin´s actions. Moscow just wants to get rid of the soldiers from the ethnic minorities in Russia. This is the truth and many people confirm it. Moreover, many analysts, for example, those from RAND corporation, have said that Russia is a serious threat to NATO. Many journalists confirmed it. And now the Russian army is losing the war against the Ukrainian army and cannot win? Come on, this is crazy. I don’t trust the Ukrainians, too. Because they manipulate their statistics regarding the losses on the battlefield and they are accused of doing it not by the Russians. Isn’t it strange that a modernized army, with so many new types of equipment and which is considered a serious threat for NATO to suffer so many losses in Ukraine even before the Western arms deliveries? I can’t believe it.
The professionalism of the Russian army – check this out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5w3_bbMjq8 Understanding the sinking of the Moskva
“The 2008 engagement between the Nanuchka-class corvette Mirazh and the Georgian Stenka-class cutter Giorgi Toreli serves as a perfect example of crew performance on a Russian warship at a time of war.”
The video shows footage of Russian crew aboard a warship behaving very unprofessionally, not even wearing uniforms.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMbBuLttUfDPvF4Kpds8wrQ IStandwithUkraine channel
Some interesting interviews of young Russian POWs on this channel. Many seem to be from rural, farming areas. They all agree that the vehicles/equipment they were given are old and constantly breaking down. They were not told they would be going into Ukraine until the day of the invasion. Some of them had very little training. They were not given a battleplan or any detailed, clear instructions. Just told to keep moving forward. Some of the commanders threatened to shoot soldiers for deserting and actually shot them for refusing to shoot civilians. They also shoot wounded Russian soldiers rather than provide them medical help.
Most of the POWs realize their government has been lying to them about Ukraine and Nazis. The interesting part is when they call home and try to explain this to their brainwashed parents.
Video: Russian airborne trooper about Ukrainian nationalists, and his off-the-rails soldiers
He confirms the key point: Russian airborne are not elite soldiers and not comparable to their NATO counterparts.
Video: Commander threw a grenade under soldier’s feet for refusing to shoot civilians – Russian army
Video: Russian Soldier shot by his own for helping civilians (the Sun)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGkzwL4KHNU
Russians openly admit bombing Ukrainian civilian targets on purpose https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63gABGm8tiE
May 21, 2022 This is a fragment from one of the Russian top talk-shows
Looks like Ukraine finally got some big guns!
Finally: Ukraine Use Krab Howitzer To Destroy Russian Artillery https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qC60Y-pZtqo June 1, 2022
Very interesting Laura!
@Stefcho
I agree that what we are witnessing in the Ukraine is (mostly, at least from my perspective) theatre. I do not even remotely believe that the Russians have pulled out their full military potential. That has to wait for the upcoming war with NATO and WW3. However, the undeniable significant number of Russian casualties suggests that they care little for their soldiers’ lives, and are more than willing to use them as “cannon fodder”, as you suggest. Such carelessness – and the “theatre” aspect of the conflict at this stage, with commanders willing to undertake risky or reckless military maneuvres with no (from their perspective) downside – no doubt are leading to far more casualties than would be expected.
I find your assertion that Zelensky might be an FSB asset very intriguing, but unsupported by any evidence (not even circumstantial) – do you have some information that could back up your assertion? I would be very interested in looking into this idea further. The truth is, I have never trusted this man. I am absolutely boggled by so many Ukrainians who prior to the war despised the man as an utterly corrupt figure, and now seem in a swoon about his purported heroic exploits, even though he is sending thousands of young Ukrainians to die in the Donbass as cannon fodder. Of course, his main financial backer during the presidential election was the Ukrainian/Cypriot/Israeli (!!) oligarch Kolomoyskyi, a man so concerned with the plight of Ukrainians who decided to set up (if I am not mistaken) residence in Tel-Aviv!
Kolomoisky has et up residence in Israel because he is under investigation for his corruption. Kolomoisky thought supporting Zelensky would help get him off the hook. Didn’t happen. The likelihood of Zelensky being an FSB asset is beyond silly.
Russia does not have much combat potential anymore. They have just about completely squandered their potential in Ukraine and are already scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Peter Vincent Pry on Securing America with Frank Gaffney (June 01 2022)
Part 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAV_ITqolwE
Part 2
Thank you for sharing this, I’ve been trying to follow along the blog as best I can, I don’t know how all of you manage to stay on top of everything.
Good in-depth analysis of Russia’s military failure in Ukraine is here:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/
Remember that, apart from very limited engagements against rather primitive or unarmed foes (Prague 1968, Chechnya, Afghanistan & Syria), the Russian armed forces have had zero experience with conducting theatre-level operations since WW2 — and even back then their losses were absolutely dumbfounding. It’s just that their numbers and the 2000 mile wide front overwhelmed the over-taxed Nazi army.
Zhukov and Konev choked the Germans on Russian blood. Every time I see new estimates of Russian losses in WW2, they get bigger. The last time I saw anything it was up to 10-11 million deaths. Stalin told Churchill 5 million in ’45.
More food for thought on the complexities of the world’s geo political, historical quagmire.
https://www.faimission.org/wire/special-report-wolf-and-the-bear
UH-OH! BAD NEWS!
Published May 31
US wheat crop hurt by dry winter and spring’s heavy rain:
UN said Russia-Ukraine war’s impact on grains, oils, fuel and fertilizer could force millions into famine:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-wheat-crop-hurt-dry-winter-spring-heavy-rain
Western Oklahoma has a 50% decline in wheat crops this year due to drought. Kansas is in the same situation. They say it will be the smallest harvest in 8 years.
More bad news. I tried to post this article earlier, but I didn’t see it so trying again.
https://www.lawenforcementtoday.com/russia-threatens-to-wipe-u-s-off-map-with-four-satan-2-nuclear-missiles-for-meddling-in-ukraine/?&source=pushnami
The sad thin about this is that the Soviets could not MIRV their missiles until the carter administration. Carter allowed the transfer of the precision machine tools they needed to be able to do so. They couldn’t even make ball point pens before then.
If I remember the story line, Russia sent us their smallest drill bit… Unimpressed, we drilled a hole in it and sent it back to them.
Good point, and if I remember the storyline correctly. They sent us their smallest drill bit…. Unimpressed, we drilled a hole in it and sent it back to them.
They have updated those missiles several times since then. The USA still has the same Minutenmen.