The event corresponds less to expectations in war than in any other case whatever.Livy, History of Rome XXX, c. 10
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, says that Wednesday will be “the day of the attack.” The Russian Duma will supposedly vote to recognize Luhansk and Donetsk. When that happens, Russian troops will move in to Ukraine.
Key points to follow: (1) The United States is evacuating its Embassy even as Americans have been advised to leave Ukraine; (2) Russian troops have surrounded Ukraine from three different directions (i.e., north, east and south); (3) Russia is demanding that Ukraine promise it will not join NATO; (4) President Zelensky says he will not make this promise; (5) Russian military bases near Ukraine show increased activity with units deploying to attack positions; (6) six Russian amphibious transports have left port in Crimea, moving up Crimea’s west coast, headed for the Ukrainian coast; (7) Russian rocket artillery units seem to be preparing to strike; (8) Ukraine is not seriously preparing to repel an invasion.
It therefore appears that an invasion of Ukraine will occur within hours. Sources indicate that if the United States puts sanctions on Russia, the Russians will commence a cyber-attack on the U.S. East Coast. If you live on the East Coast, you might want to prepare for a major power blackout. I have no idea how serious such an attack could be.
My own thinking has always been: (1) Moscow was always gong to take back Ukraine; (2) Moscow was always going to ally with Beijing; (3) the United States was always going to miss all the cues; (4) the West does not understand that the military balance of power is now shifting in favor of Moscow and Beijing; (5) the United States cannot win by dropping refrigerators and cars, along with other consumer goods, on Russian cities because China will soon cut off our supply.
The West will shortly learn that money is not the sinews of war. As Machiavelli said, good soldiers are the sinews of war. Or as Oswald Spengler said, “Caesarism breaks the dictature of money and its political weapon, democracy.” Almost all the discussions we have been seeing on American TV are beside the point. These folks do not see things realistically. They are still moralizing. War is not about moralizing. It is about violence. WONDER, if you dare, at the following shameful exchange.
After citing Tulsi’s Christmas greeting to her fans on Twitter, I wrote that if she had been in the Garden of Eden, she would have gotten the snake to eat the forbidden fruit. In this exciting episode, Tulsi blames the U.S. military industrial complex for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is such a cliche, and so thoughtless, that I can just see all these Pentagon contractors petitioning Putin to invade. “Please, Mr. Putin. Invade Ukraine. We defense contractors in America will starve if you don’t!” So Putin, apparently, has a heart after all. He just loves our defense contractors. And this baffles me, because you would think that Tulsi would not like Mr. Putin for being so soft on those nasty people in America who make all those nasty weapons that endanger the peace of the world.
We all know that evil dictators never invade their neighbors. It is evil American defense contractors who make them do it! I believe that Tucker Carlson’s pro-Russian stance will come back to bite him. In fact, it will take a giant chunk out of his back end. We are entering an era in which misjudgments about Russia and China will undo a person’s reputation. Permanently. To misunderstand what is happening now, after the situation has become so crystal clear, is unforgivable. The Russians are putting the Soviet Union back together. But more than that, they are doing so rapidly even as communism has America by the throat here at home.
And what is this nonsense about Ukraine joining NATO? Please! That is not in prospect right now. In practical terms, it is not remotely possible. Everyone in Europe knows that such a move would invite a war with Russia, and nobody in Europe wants a war with Russia. The real issue is NATO’s weakness and America’s weakness. This is the ideal time for Moscow to force Ukraine back into a union with Russia. NATO is an alliance of frightened little countries huddling under the dwindling U.S. nuclear umbrella. Their idea of threatening Russia is cutting off credits when, in fact, they will have their heat turned off when the Russians stop sending natural gas to Europe.
Need I remind anyone that it is mid-winter. Not only has Russia mobilized its forces, but NATO has done very little in response to this mobilization. Hand-wringing is in vogue. From what I’ve read, even Ukraine has not mobilized her trained military reserves. Even as Zelensky pronounced a “unity day” in response to the expected invasion, we have to wonder what that actually means. Patriotic slogans will not stop invading armies.
The Russians, of course, promised that they would not invade. Perhaps all this is a tremendous misunderstanding. Perhaps the Russian troops will turn around and go home. Nancy Pelosi says that if Russia does not invade Ukraine, then President Biden’s political genius will be proven. Logically, on its face, that just about guarantees that Russia will follow through on its invasion.
Here is the real question: Why wouldn’t Russia invade and take Ukraine? I have heard people say that there would be guerrilla war there, and the Russians wouldn’t like it. Well, Ukraine doesn’t have a lot of jungles and forests for guerrillas to hide in. And the kind of weapons the Ukrainians would have to fight back with simply would not stop Russian tanks and air power. I’m sorry. It’s a fantasy.
The Russians have 11 times zones, and they did not get them all through peace. They got them because the Russians have conquered, and conquered, and invaded, and subdued, over and over again. Ukraine was subject to the Russian Empire for a long, long time. And the current conquest of Ukraine will not even give Russia another time zone. Therefore, the folks in Romania and Poland had better look to their options. Let us see if NATO holds together. Let us see what kind of resolve the rest of the world has.
Of course, it is one more fiasco for the West. One must ask whether we are serious people.
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