Russia initially did everything it could to make sure these disagreements could be resolved by peaceful means. However, the Kiev officials have conducted two punitive operations on those territories; and, apparently, we are witnessing a third escalation. All these years … the people living on those territories have been literally tortured by constant shelling and blockades.Vladimir Putin, 21 February 2022
President Vladimir Putin spent months deploying Russian troops around Ukraine, on three sides. Of course, he said Russia was not going to invade Ukraine; and many believed him. Last week, when Putin’s spokesmen announced the Russian troops were standing down, many people believed him. But the troops did not leave their deployments. They moved closer to the border with Ukraine. And then it was alleged that the Ukrainians did a bad, bad thing. So, the Russian troops did not go home as advertised. The troops stayed in position; and on Monday, Putin decided to invade eastern Ukraine. And now Putin has asked the Duma for permission to use the Russian military to attack forces outside of Russia. Some intelligence analysts believe that a general invasion of Ukraine will soon begin.
Putin offers many and variable justifications for invading Ukraine: He says America initiated a coup in Ukraine and took it over in 2014. Putin also claims the Ukrainians are committing genocide against ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine. Putin complains that the West promised not to admit east European nations into NATO,[i] even though there was no treaty or formal agreement on this. Putin further claims that Ukraine is not a real country; rather, it was “created by Lenin.” (Untrue.) Therefore, Ukraine has no right to exist. Over-egging the omelet even more, Putin has suggested that the breakup of the Soviet Union was illegal.
Given the testimony of numerous defectors, and a strategic sense of things, it seems that Moscow has always planned to retake Ukraine, if only to put the Soviet Union back together. There is something inevitable about Moscow aligning with communist China, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, communist Cuba, and all the other communist countries. Has anyone bothered to notice this? No. They were all too busy counting their “peace dividend,” congratulating themselves for “winning” the Cold War. The return of Ukraine to the Union and the reemergence of the communist bloc was always in the cards.
When are people going to wake up? The left remains deceived and the right remains deceived. They each have their narratives and each narrative has been wrong. How does one get past the embarrassment of it? Even now the conspiracy hacks are blaming Western elites for the war. Yet the war now begins on Moscow’s order, after Putin’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi on February 4. Most people will never realize what this means strategically; namely, that we are now in the Final Phase of the communist bloc long range strategy. And that means a trap is being sprung.
The communist powers have a special dilemma at this time, however. After fooling everyone for three decades, how are they going to get folks to realize they mean business? What if they cannot, like a highway robber, convince the West to surrender peacefully at gunpoint? Under the present circumstances, the West is threatening sanctions on Russia over this invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions? On the new owners of the world? (But then, does anyone realize who these new owners are?)
If the United States puts sanctions on Russia, I am told the Russians will launch a devastating cyber-attack on the United States. In response to this, President Biden has promised to retaliate in kind. What happens, then? A further escalation? Probably. Is there any way to avoid a wider war at this point? How would that be possible given the dynamic we are seeing?
Our banks, our companies, our trading systems, should have never given Moscow credits or technology or trade advantages. Our leaders should have never admitted China to the World Trade Organization. After twenty years, what is the benefit of this post-Cold War openness toward Beijing and Moscow? We are now on the brink of a war in Eastern Europe, not knowing if it will escalate or not.
Putin’s government has, in recent weeks, threatened Finland, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic States. Putin knows that NATO is weak and has been subverted. He knows that America is weak and unready for war. Also, Putin has China as an ally. Why should he fear anyone? He can threaten and bluster, yes. But he can also carry out those threats. He is powerful now. He has built his military and brags of “deploying weapons on combat duty without parallel in the world.” Ukraine has called up her reserves, finally, at the eleventh hour. If Russia strikes quickly, the mobilization will be too late. The ground is not frozen, but muddy. The sky is overcast with rain forecast for Kiev today. The Russian armor will be slowed. But how much will it be slowed? Ukraine is being abandoned because America and her allies did not prepare, did not take the threat from Russian seriously. And now we are feeding the crocodile in the hope that he will eat us last.
Today the Russian forces have reportedly commenced “radio silence.” Some sources say that a major war will being within two weeks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been told that a full Russian invasion, involving air and missile strikes, might begin in the next 48 hours. Ukraine’s foreign minister, grasping at straws, said that Russia is ready to attack and there is but a short time left for deterrence (i.e., for the West to declare its willingness to defend Ukraine).
The Russian leaders may cynically claim that Ukraine has provoked them and NATO cheated them, but Russia’s leaders are the real cheaters. They cheated on the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Agreement. They cheated on the Conventional Forces in Europe Agreement. Even as NATO got rid of thousands of tactical nuclear weapons the Russians have kept 20,000 such weapons. The proof is now in the pudding. Watch Ukraine.
Interview With Oppenheimer Ranch Project
Clink on Link Below:
Notes and Links
[i] See by M.E. Sarotte, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of the Post-Cold War Stalemate. Sarotte’s research shows that no such promise was made to Moscow. In fact, Moscow signed treaties that brought NATO closer to Russia’s borders.
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