The last three months it is organized by both sides … with a clear division of labor. Good cop and bad cop…. This campaign stated that Putin is preparing to activate troops for a full-scale invasion to a big war, for a big war to conquer a substantial portion of Ukraine, with encirclement of major Ukrainian cities. And now we can see that many Western medias are publishing maps showing all these arrows of Russian troops moving into Ukraine territory and conquering that territory that there will be a huge war. Mr. Putin has decided to reinforce these claims. But Putin’s forces are insufficient for what is needed.
Andrei Illarionov
I would be cautious about describing the Russian mobilization as an “empty threat.” It is not “empty.” This is the largest mobilization of Russian forces since the end of the Cold War. It is a real threat made with tanks, troops, aircraft and missiles. In his interview with Frank Gaffney, Illarionov’s arguments regarding the Russian deployments were not well-informed or well-considered.
Illarionov had no clear idea of the extent of the Russian mobilization. The exercise underway is not merely a 100,000-man troop exercise. It is much larger and includes units of the Belarussian Army (involved in their own “drills”). The Russian deployments now form a double envelopment, with Russian troops being positioned on the territory of four former Soviet Republics (Russia, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine). And this mobilization is continuing — with implications for other military theaters (i.e., the Far East and Middle East). In fact, Putin’s meeting with Xi may well underscore a consequential shift in the global balance of power. I am sorry, but this is NOT about calling Russia’s bluff. This is about Russia and China calling America’s bluff. And we have been bluffing, as our inadequate defense measures indicate.
The fiasco in Afghanistan is only a foretaste of things to come. And we should be more reserved when it comes to praising Ukraine’s fighting spirit; for Ukraine has not mobilized her reserves, which may well signal that Kiev’s is ripe for a new union treaty with Moscow. Setting aside Zelensky’s “statesmanlike” unreadiness for war — what valiant name shall we give NATO’s unwillingness to mobilize man for man what Russia has been mobilizing? What accounts for America’s unwillingness to match China and Russia as we fall further and further behind? Is the received wisdom of today, in every crisis, to balk mobilization as alarmist? But then, with regard to Russia, complacency has long been considered a virtue even as underestimating Moscow is been accounted wise.
Here is my interview, as of yesterday, with MAN IN AMERICA’s host, :
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Carbon lockdowns are the next tactic after a planedemic, in the game plan for Operation Lockdown as foreshadowed by the Rockefeller Foundation, but as the global elite are now exposed as the genocidal frauds that they are, World war might well be the distraction they need most.
If Russia intends to invade Ukraine this month, then the best date to do that would be Tuesday,February 22. it is a date with several historical markers in the last few decades for both Russia and Ukraine. With Putin meeting President Xi at the opening of the Winter Olympics in China on February 4; and with the stated word that the Russians have promised the Chinese that they will not take any action until after the Games, so as they would not upstage their grand celebration on the international stage, then February 22 is the most ideal, being two days after the conclusion of the Winter Olympics.
Below are the recent Russian and Ukrainian connections to February 22:
1944 – World War II: The Soviet Red Army recaptures Krivoi Rog.
1946 – The “Long Telegram”, proposing how the United States should deal with the Soviet Union, arrives from the US embassy in Moscow.[7]
1980 – Miracle on Ice: In Lake Placid, New York, the United States hockey team defeats the Soviet Union hockey team 4–3.
1994 – Aldrich Ames and his wife are charged by the United States Department of Justice with spying for the Soviet Union.
2014 – President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine is impeached by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by a vote of 328–0, fulfilling a major goal of the Euromaidan rebellion.
There is also a couple historical markers for the China and their foreign communist allies:
1921 – After Russian forces under Baron Roman von Ungern-Sternberg drive the Chinese out, the Bogd Khan is reinstalled as the emperor of Mongolia.
1957 – Ngô Đình Diệm of South Vietnam survives a communist shooting assassination attempt in Buôn Ma Thuột.
1973 – Cold War: Following President Richard Nixon’s visit to the People’s Republic of China, the two countries agree to establish liaison offices.
I don’t think fighting spirit coincides with mobilization. I can understand why Ukraine would be reluctant to mobilize as the certainty of Russia invading is questionable.
SMALL POTATOES ISSUE PER SE, BUT IT DOES SHINE A BRIEF SPOTLIGHT ON THE CURRENT PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE LIKLEY BEING A CORRUPT STOOGE (i.e. A RUSSIAN CONTROLLED ASSET).
As Russia tensions boil, US farmer remains jailed in Ukraine:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-north-dakota-c65dd6a3886f05ce33330b14b02db1e9
WASHINGTON (AP) — When Kurt Groszhans set out from North Dakota for Ukraine in 2017, he was eager to connect with his family’s ancestral homeland and to farm the rich, black soil for which the country is known.
But his farming venture with a law professor who’s now a high-ranking Ukrainian government official soon collapsed in acrimony and accusations, culminating in his arrest last November on charges of plotting to assassinate his former business partner. His family and supporters say the accusations are bogus and designed to silence Groszhan’s claims of corruption in Ukraine, a country pulled between Russian and Western interests and straining to shed its reputation for graft and cronyism.
The case is unfolding as Ukraine braces for a potential Russian invasion and as the U.S. has ordered the families of American personnel at the U.S. Embassy there to evacuate. The upheaval has Groszhan’s family afraid that the North Dakota farmer could be left behind, with the U.S. government preoccupied with broader concerns of possible military action and geopolitical chaos.
“We’re terrified for my brother’s well-being right now, especially everything that you’re hearing in the news with the Russian troops on the border,” his sister, Kristi Magnusson, said in an interview with The Associated Press. With fears an invasion could force the evacuation of U.S. diplomatic staff, she called on the Biden administration and the State Department to “use their leverage” to get him home.
“If the embassy is not there to check on him and make sure that he’s doing OK, we don’t know what will happen,” she added.
Asked for comment, the State Department said the administration took seriously its responsibility to help detained Americans and was closely following the case, but declined to comment further.
Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, who recently visited Groszhans at a detention center as he awaits trial, said the episode has “created friction between at least me and them, if not our two governments, that should be alleviated” at a time when U.S. and Ukrainian interests should be aligned in countering the threat from Moscow.
“This bit of friction is unnecessary,” he added. “And I think we could relieve all of us of it simply by releasing Kurt.”
Groszhans, a 50-year-old farmer from Ashley, North Dakota, decided in 2017 to move to Ukraine, where his ancestors are from. The chance to work the country’s coveted black earth was a “dream come true,” and he invested a large sum to get a farming operation up and running, his sister said. In a country with a prized agricultural sector, Groszhans was proud of his work, she said, sending pictures of his crops to his family.
Once there, he connected with a law professor, Roman Leshchenko, who offered himself up as a native speaker with knowledge of the local farming business and regulatory requirements. Grozhans named him the director of his company.
Things fell apart quickly.
Groszhans has alleged in a lawsuit and in an internet post that Leshchenko began embezzling money from him, defrauding him of over $250,000 in total and transferring funds to a family company. Groszhans has been vocal about his allegations, describing himself in a Medium post in August as a “humble” but deceived investor.
“Probably, I am not the first or the last American investor who made a mistake in the person hired as a manager. But the personality of this manager makes my case unique,” he wrote.
Leshchenko declined to comment to the AP, but has denied the embezzlement claims in interviews with the Ukrainian media and has insisted that the men had agreed that Leshchenko’s company would run the farming business.
He’s leveled his own accusations against Groszhans, alleging that the American farmer planted genetically modified soybean that is banned from cultivation and sales in Ukraine and it was that discovery that prompted Leshchenko to resign from the company and was the source of their dispute.
“The circumstances of this criminal proceedings must be verified as part of the pre-trial investigation conducted by the National Police and only on the basis of the results of which, after the relevant facts and their evidence have been clarified and established, the prosecutor’s office can make appropriate procedural decisions,” Tetyana Kozachenko, a lawyer for Leshchenko, told The Associated Press.
Ukrainian media that began looking into the conflict reported that Leshchenko had used some of the funds for a roughly $60,000 contribution to the 2019 campaign of current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who later named Leshchenko the government’s minister of agrarian policy and food.
The AP was unable to independently confirm the contribution. Zelenskyy’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
Amid controversy about the contribution, Leshchenko was interviewed by the Kyiv Post last year. The article said the $60,000 donation came from Leshchenko’s dying father. Leshchenko said he and his father saw Zelenskyy “as the only person who wants to change Ukraine, bring structural reforms.”
Magnusson says Leshchenko ultimately did return some money to her brother, but also threatened to have him arrested if he didn’t stop talking publicly about his fraud accusations.
In November, Groszhans was arrested along with his assistant on charges of plotting to assassinate Leshchenko, allegations that Groszhans’ supporters say are wholly fabricated but may have arisen from Groszhans’ hiring of a private investigator to dig into Leshchenko as part of his litigation.
The arrest, his family and supporters believe, was a pretext for silencing his allegations, particularly in a country that has sought to shore up diplomatic and military support from the U.S. through reassurances it is making a serious effort to curb corruption.
“My brother has never in all of his 50 years of life.. been in trouble with the law,” Magnusson said. “And we don’t believe any of this can be true because why would you want to assassinate somebody if you’re trying to collect money back that is legally owed to you?”
His supporters are asking the Biden administration to formally designate him a wrongful detainee, a classification that would allow for his case to be reassigned to the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs at the State Department.
But his family fears the window for attention to Groszhan’s case may be limited, given the potential for an incursion by Russia and the dwindling diplomatic presence by the U.S.
“It just makes us more and more concerned for him and for his safety to know that these people could be leaving and Kurt is forgotten about, and he’s left behind,” Magnusson said.
____
Ukraine is looking like a fake victim that was in on it from the start, going by the lack of proper posturing and Zelensky’s “nothing to see here” volte face.
Which begs the question, what is the real objective of the mobilization? The Baltics? Plus Poland? Plus the rest of Europe?
Dear Mr. Nyquist,
Thank you again for you analysis.
I have some more questions, if I might:
As was discussed in the previous comment section that Poroshenko might have been also an agent. How do you rate the possibility for infiltration of other former Soviet Union members? Do you feel they also still have Soviet structures in play? E.g. Romania: https://www.romaniajournal.ro/politics/romanian-defmin-nato-military-intervention-in-ukraine-out-of-the-question/
I have looked at some other analysts take on the situation. None pointed to Russia having forces in Transnistria already. Is there evidence for that? If so, how many troops might be deployed?
Here is another in depth analysis of the situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwrzophpNJA
There is some overlapping positions with yours while he leaves out the ideological long-term considerations that you make so thoroughly. Might be interesting nevertheless.
Spicy: (1) All former communist countries have Soviet structures. And now we are building ours. (2) It is well known that a Russian mechanized regiment is in Transnistria.
“In fact, Putin’s meeting with Xi may well underscore a consequential shift in the global balance of power. I am sorry, but this is NOT about calling Russia’s bluff. This is about Russia and China calling America’s bluff.”
The “American Problem” is currently being solved.
“Foreign policy coordination between Russia and China is based on close and coinciding approaches to solving global and regional issues. Our countries play an important stabilizing role in today’s challenging international environment, promoting greater democracy in the system of international relations to make it more equitable and inclusive. We are working together to strengthen the central coordinating role of the United Nations in global affairs and to prevent the international legal system, with the UN Charter at its centre, from being eroded”
‘Full text of Putin’s signed article for Xinhua: Russia and China: A Future-Oriented Strategic Partnership’
https://thesaker.is/full-text-of-putins-signed-article-for-xinhua-russia-and-china-a-future-oriented-strategic-partnership/
There you have it!
What do you mean Jeff, by “it”?
From the sound of this, Russia laments social distancing of the Covid Live Exercise, as if China were not at least part of the cause.
“Despite the difficulties caused by the coronavirus pandemic, we are striving to build the capacity of economic partnerships and expand people-to-people exchanges.”
As if Russia were a consumer based economy to rival the United States.
“Working together, we can achieve stable economic growth and improve the well-being of our citizens, strengthen our competitiveness, and stand together against today’s risks and challenges.”
As if Russia and China were capable of replacing the dollar upon which they are totally dependent.
“In particular, the portfolio of the Intergovernmental Commission on Investment Cooperation includes 65 projects worth over 120 billion U.S. dollars. This is about collaboration in such fields as mining and mineral processing, infrastructure construction, and agriculture.
We are consistently expanding settlements in national currencies and creating mechanisms to offset the negative impact of unilateral sanctions. A major milestone in this work was the signing of an agreement between the Government of Russia and the Government of China on payments and settlements in 2019.
A mutually beneficial energy partnership is being formed between our countries. Along with long-term oil and gas supplies to China, we have plans to implement a number of large-scale joint projects.”
This is just feel good rhetoric.
Off topic: an obviously heartfelt tribute to Olavo de Carvalho by Anca Cernea on ‘In Linea Dreapta’ ,,, https://inliniedreapta.net/olavo/ .. I’m by no means fluent in Romanian (intermediate at best) and the intricasies of Romanian politics go beyond me, but this was quite something. Had no idea they tried to kill him and meanwhile enlisted a vulnerable family-member in their propaganda-onslaught..
What has however always bothered me is his anti-Protestantism. There are rather choice quotes out there. But in the end he did move to the US. Any thoughts Jeff?
Anca is always worth reading. Use a translator to read her if you can.
If they are busing in Spetz Naz and communist military through Mexico then it can’t be long before pink terror begins in this country. Beware the Ides of March.
Interesting and highly informative interview.
It seems Moscow may be aiming for a bloodless “surrender” by Ukraine. They may be seeing just how far they can get with that strategy. After all, it seems much of Europe is unprepared or unwilling to muster a defense. And the US is disorganize, confused and unreliable. Each day further displays that fact.
I’ve bristled at the patronizing cheers from Western pundits about how Ukrainians have a “fighting spirit” and will fight for their homeland. That’s what we were told about Afghans. And it’s an asinine thing to say. The basic message is, “we won’t help you and your failure is assured, but here have some guns and make it look good.” It’s like we think Ukrainians (or Afghans) don’t have the internet – or their own eyes.
It seems the decision put by Moscow to the Ukrainian leadership/oligarchs tied to the West is, this can be easy or hard, you can be left with something or nothing, it’s up to you. As usual, Western intelligentsia is ignorant, arrogant and delusional.
I wouldn’t be surprised if what happens during the Olympics is a brokered deal between Moscow and Ukraine, maybe with some involvement (or tacit acquiescence) of France and Germany. What better way to showcase China-Russia dominance that to cap off the triumph of the Olympic games with an unmitigated, bloodless success by Moscow, while the West sits there blinking and bickering amongst themselves.
The US joins a multinational force in Eastern European NATO. This is more to protect NATO members, but makes a token show of moral support for Ukraine, as if to honor or to feign preparedness to militarily assure security for Ukraine. If the US were to actually get involved, it would not be in a conventional sense.
Jeff, not sure if you can comment in regards to the Grand Solar Minimum, electroverse.net which David DuByne (Adapt2030) speaks highly of, well January was recorded as sharp drops in temperature and solar activity happening:
https://electroverse.net/global-cooling-is-undeniable/
Excellent interview. The only thing I might disagree with is the influence that Big Business exerts over the US political system. In the US, we have essentially, a debt-based, fiat money system that is like a ticking time bomb. A lot of politicos are subject to blackmail and all sorts of other corrupting influences. We may be living well today, but tomorrow someone is going to have to pay the “piper.” Excellent points on the video, Mr. Nyquist. So far as I can see, your well-informed assessment based on your reading of the defector literature of an over-arching grand strategy, is on target. Nothing else can explain what we are seeing today. Certainly, NATO poses no real threat to anyone in its current state. Ukraine returned to Russia all the nukes that were on its soil during the Soviet Era. To think that Ukraine is a threat to anyone is simply ridiculous.
As with all peoples and nations, societies are their own worst enemies throughout all history. Recall that God first chastised Sodom and Gommorah and the other cities of the plain with war, war between them and the Mesopotamian kings which they lost. And even after that, and rescue by St Abraham who also pleaded for them to the Lord, they persisted in their evils until their final doom, fire and sulphur from the Heavens.
Yes, I agree. The whole history of the Old Testament involves God’s people getting off track and then God does something, or allows something to happen to them, to get their attention and get them back on track. The fact that the US has become one of the most immoral nations (with its promotion of mindless violence and pornography) on the earth is not unrelated to the blindness and lack of wisdom of the people. The two go hand-in-hand. God is able to bring good out of a bad situation. Unfortunately, human nature is such, that we screw things up in spite of our best efforts, and all the more so when we are bombarded with propaganda which has become ubiquitous, thanks to the Internet and social media. I must say that I was skeptical when I first read New Lies for Old, but time is proving that Golitsyn was definitely on to something in his analysis of the situation. I do know that there have been a few Christian believers warning about this very thing for years, by simply applying their knowledge of what happens to a people that forgets God or possibly through prophetic insights.
Possibly, your criticism is worth considering. Arguments can be made against what I said. But in reality, government/business relationships are a two-way street whereas all these socializing simplifiers make big business into the great evil of our day. Is it really? Be very careful on this score to guard against exaggeration. Our politicians are sellers and their product is dear, their monopoly effective, their criminal potential greater. Ever deal with the EPA? Or OSHA? Some businesses do manage to bribe politicians successfully, but for how long? Look at Enron. Look at AT&T. Too big to fail is only a partial truth. In the end, when the State reasserts itself, businessmen are skewered. They go to jail. Even Hitler sent them to concentration camps. Stalin liquidated them. Who, then, is truly fierce? Government is far more dangerous.
Agreed. My comments were only with regard to businesses in the US. In totalitarian systems, he who controls the system controls everything. In others words, I do think Big Business exerts a lot of influence on the government in the US (funding politicos, ex-CEOs serving in administrative positions, lobbying, control of media, etc.) Internationally and with societies that are not capitalist, it’s a different and more complex picture. Of course, capitalists have no problem funding their own destruction, being driven solely by profits as you mention. The case of China amply proves that in terms of the shortsightedness of corporations.
China is fully imbedded in our economic system.
US FedGov has become, basically, a criminal organization. That has been the case for a very long time.
Excellent interview. I can’t imagine a war in Europe happening without the US getting walloped at home first.
Yes. I think that is what our enemies are angling for.
Jeff, the situations of lately, food production, grand solar minimum, Tonga’s volcanic eruption, made me wonder: If memory does not fail me, the dead sea has a plentiful reserve of minerals, which have agricultural utility. Would that lead Russia’s eyes upon Israel? Iran and Russia have a long time relationship, would that become a front for WW3? Turkey is sort of a loose cannon, and I think the mohammedan branch of the soviet bloc would be more than happy to fire some shots at Israel. So besides USA, would Israel become another juicy morsel for the soviet alligator?
Reads more like it comes from trying to keep alive a certain theory of prophetic interpretation.
Emilkc, to subscribe to the Golitsyn thesis, after over 30 years of Capitalism on steroids and absolutely no Socialistic propaganda infusing the larger Russian society at all, suggests that it either simply is entirely untrue and actually impossible, or there is a literally diabolical level of inhuman patience and conspiratorial craftiness by an almost invisible cabal at the top, suggesting Satanic intervention. Now, you will naturally find Russian haters gravitating to the later idea, and they will always ” find” something to try to fit the theory. And lo and behold that is what one often finds here: Fatima prophesy fanatics, Protestant purveyors of Russia being ” Magog”, Islamists trolling for comrades in the Caucasus and Central Asia. If Nyquist can somehow find some facts to support it and not just red meat for that gang, well and good. But when I look at the people and the nation and civilization that I love, I just don’t see it, whatever Russias problems internally.
Funny.
Good to see that Vladimir’s blog articles are graced by a few Nyquist comments.
Nobody is stopping you from a legitimate reasoned rebuttal of the points I’m making, if you can find those somewhere and not grouse or make ad hominem remarks
I don’t wrestle with pigs.
I love wrestling with pigs. Bacon is wonderful.
🤣
Strannik, it seems clear to me that Mr. Nyquist has made an extremely “legitimate, reasoned” case for everything he believes about the Soviet Union, past, present, and future. With this possible upcoming Russian takeover of Ukraine, you have really come out full throttle against everything Nyquist says, in spite of his extensive documentation and clear reasoning.
I dont see any ad hominem attacks towards you or Russians. Nobody who comments here is salivating for Russian blood. I myself have only known one Russian I worked around at a machine shop for a short while. Things he told me about the government in Russia, were along the same lines as what Mr. Nyquist says, and nowhere near like what you say. This man was a very frank and moral man.
i.e., he did not believe that Soviet communism was truly dead.
The fall of the Soviet Union was fake. They simply changed a few things for public consumption. The machinery is still in place. The Siloviki were apparatchiks in the USSR and now are the corrupt oligarchs that actually run Putin’s Neo-USSR.
This is one of things that Jeff has stated repeatedly. Pat Robertson was the first public figure I heard making the same statement and he did so ca1995.
Putin has said he was a voluntary communist and his Christianity is as fake as it comes. The Russian Orthodox Church is a corrupt organization whose clergy was mostly made up of KGB agents. The Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia (often just referred to as “ROCOR”) will regret their amalgamation with the home country’s church.
Ohengineer, yes I realize Mr. Nyquist has stated repeatedly that the collapse was fake. I believe that is true too. I first heard that thought put forward, around 2000, or 2001. I attended a private college, and the head of the history dept was a man like Mr. Nyquist- a voracious reader, with a large dose of good sense. I also remember him saying several times, “Communists will take two steps back today, so they can take three steps forward in the future.”
A few interesting things about the Russian gentleman I worked around for a couple days or so. I was sent by the company I worked for when I was around 24 or 25, to sandblast and paint a coal pulverizer that was being repaired at a machine shop in Montgomery. This guy was the main person I dealt with on the job. He had a really good work ethic, and was very polite. We talked off and on throughout the course of the job. I always ask a person about their faith. He said he was a believer in Christ.
Something about his bearing, and the way he conducted himself made me think he had been in the military. (He was in his 50’s). I asked if he had been, and he said he was Spetsnaz. Of course, at the time, I had no idea what Spetznsz was, but the way he said it made me think it was a cut above regular army.
Finally, I remember him saying that local people would invite him to church, saying “there’s this Ukrainian pilot or officer that goes, who is over here training with our military. (There are a couple airforce bases in Montgomery). He said he would reply that he wasnt interested in meeting them. They would ask why, and he would day, “I dont want to associate with a spy.” He said that these guys were actually Communists, and were over here spying (or gathering info) on our military while we were training them.
He was a very interesting man. I asked if I could have his phone number, and he gave it to me, but I never called him and eventually lost the number.
Mr. Nyquist, what do you make of that?
P.S. let me emphasize, he did not say the officers were spying for Ukraine, but Soviet Communists.
Yes. You will hear that same kind of thing from honest Russians and/or Ukrainians who have resisted recruitment or defected.
He sounds like a very interesting man. Colonel Lunev had some of those traits. Too bad you lost his number.
Yes it is. If I had only known of you and all you have brought to light back then. I feel that he must have been a defector. I could kick myself. I remember his first name. Maybe I can remember the name of the machine shop and see if anyone recollects him. If he’s still alive, he’d have to be pushing 70.
For that matter, I wonder if any of the same people work there, or if it’s still open. Time sure does fly. I’m going to give it a try though.
Socialistic propaganda is alive and well in all parts of the world. I’ve seen the Russian separatists spout it myself in watching interviews by Vice News and other outfits. As for “diabolical conspiracies,” when people reject Christ, they open themselves up to the influence of other spiritual forces, and as the Bible also mentions such things, I certainly have no problem believing in such a possibility. I certainly do not believe that the USSR gave up on communism, because they were afraid of Reagan. Socialist propaganda is even ubiquitous in the US. Cuba and Venezuela are both socialist nations. Far from being dead, it seems to be alive and well to me. In fact, the capitalists seem to have no problem working with socialist totalitarian regimes like China and have become some of its leading cheerleaders, of late. I don’t like rule by corporation, but socialism is far worse, since the government enjoys a complete monopoly over the use of force. Go watch that fellow from Texas, Russell Bentley. He fights with the Russian separatists, admits that he is part of a communist organization in the Donbas region, and his fellow soldiers say much the same thing. They even sport images of Lenin and Stalin and the good old hammer and sickle of the USSR days. That’s more than enough proof for me as to the nature of their true motivations. They speak of killing fascists, which in their parlance means anyone who dissents from their materialistic, atheist notion of creating a heaven on earth through the use of violence.
Maybe there are regular Commies among these people, but not really seeing any particular atheism or materialism rampant among them. I’m by no means a collectivist, and I cringe at Sovok types like Bentley myself, but I am not fond of the Neo Nazis on the other side either. As I write this, I shake my head sadly: on my desk is a copy of the Domestroi, the 16th century Russian guide for a prosperous or aristocratic household around the time of Tsar Ivan. A different world. But one firmly engaged with the reality of human sinful nature. Its become a best seller again in Russia… Not what some here might want to hear, against their theory perhaps…
Blindness to the existence of communism is a real thing. I am amazed.
There are Neo Nazis on the other side, of course, and they are also an unsavory bunch, but my understanding is that they represent a small minority within Ukrainian society and its military. But really, they are just another brand of socialists with a racist, more nationalist bent. But, unlike the Russians and the Russian separatists in the eastern part of Ukraine, they are not mobilizing thousands of troops, nor do they have control over any nukes. Once again, though, in watching Bentley and his comrades, they use this term — and many others like “dogs” — rather loosely to refer to pretty much anyone that disagrees with their atheist, materialist ideology that promotes a heaven on earth through violence, propaganda, and oppression. It is something of an oxymoron to claim to be an Orthodox Christian while displaying pictures of Lenin and Stalin and speaking of liberating the oppressed peoples of the world from the evil “fascists.” A true Orthodox Christian wouldn’t even begin to understand this logic, since he or she is busy focusing on their struggle to make it through this life — accepting the good along with the bad as part of the overall plan of God in the redemption of humankind. This is not to say that they are blind or indifferent to the suffering of others, but rather that they look at things from a completely different perspective, a spiritual one that accepts the fallen nature of humans and attempts to remedy suffering and injustice through drawing closer to Christ and leading others in that direction as opposed to picking up AK-47s and imposing their will on others.
Well said!
A smoking gun! You got him good, emilkc.
It is by no means a ” blindness to communism ” existence Mr Nyquist, just not seeing vitality in marginal sects of losers and old pensioners. Maybe somebody thought same of Lenin’s gang in say 1915, sure I’ll admit, but where is their crisis of opportunity like WW1 was?
It is hard for most Americans to believe in actual communists. Communists are like vampires or the bogeyman. After all, communists are always hiding under the beds of crazy anticommunists, who are annoying because they believe in something that isn’t there (under the bed). Imagine Xi Jinping or Kim Jong-un or Raul Castro under your bed? You peek under there and find Fidel’s brother. You say, “Raul, how did you get under there? Why aren’t you dead like Fidel, or Brezhnev?” Okay, Xi and Kim are too fat to fit under your bed. And so it is very funny. If you remember Mohammed Ali’s “rope a dope,” one might call this “trope a dope.” You say it over and over again, and somehow it gets into people’s heads, and you use it to win a very big fight. Communists? Nah! They just run organizations like the Council for a Livable World or Green Cross International, or the Democratic Party. So how is a genuine non-communist going to ever meet a real communist? Does the communist pop naked out of a cake and say, “Surprise!” How do you convince the man in the street that communists are real when I have Strannik here telling everyone that communists are just “old age pensioners” who soon will be room temperature? Maybe I should have Strannik look under my bed? I mean, he really cannot find them. In Russia, where so many fake communists tried to secure good jobs in the system during the Soviet period, where are you going to find that one “idiot” who really believed in Marx? Nobody really believes in such things, right? Most people who go to Church do not really believe in it. They say they believe, of course, but they really don’t. Or do they? Most people, in fact, are inwardly opaque, or empty, or just as ready to repeat the last thing they heard whether or not it contradicts the last thing they said. You might hear them say that they believe in Big Bird and the Letter F, but as you get to know them your skepticism grows. At some level, you have to wonder if they even believe in their own existence. And when people say they are atheists why would you take them seriously? That’s like saying you believe in nothing. Of course, if I did believe in nothing I suppose that is what I’d assume everyone else believed in! (Like Strannik.) And yet, there are true-believing Protestants, Catholics, Orthodox, AND ATHEIST COMMIES. If you want to know what people really think, you have to go out and find someone who actually has thoughts. I assure you, it is not easy because most people do not have any. It’s too much trouble, really. Deep down, most folks just say to themselves, “Just tell me what to think or say and I’ll hold to that (and, meanwhile, leave me the hell alone).” Oh well. Sorry.
I watched hours of footage with interviews of the Russian separatists. They use a vocabulary atypical of the average person and probably opaque to those not familiar with their manner of speaking. For example, the Russian separatists refer to those who disagree with their perspective as “fascists” and “dogs.” They also used techniques eerily similar to those of the “social justice” folks in the West — for example, pretending that a reporter and his camera crew were carrying weapons so they could rough them up. Actually, Simon Ostrovsky reported being kidnapped, beaten, blindfolded, and interrogated for merely reporting on the situation by the separatists and trying to establish whether or not there were actual Russian troops in the Donbas region aiding the separatists. If Bentley did not speak for them, they would not tolerate his presence as an outsider. But, he spouted the same stuff in perfectly understandable English as the translated text when his Russian-speaking comrades were interviewed. Generally speaking, journalists are not beaten nor accused of brandishing imaginary weapons in a delusional manner by officials in capitalist systems. Perhaps some of them cling to Orthodox views, but surely this similar to other situations in which people hold contrary or contradicting beliefs. That certainly does not disprove the existence of communism. More likely, they are parroting the propaganda of those at the top and have internalized it to the point that it no longer creates severe cognitive dissonance to espouse Christianity on the one hand, while embracing the tenets of a materialistic, atheist ideology on the other, the very system that caused the Orthodox Church to crack and splinter into different jurisdictions.
Jeff, Strannik is a fool and not worth anyone’s time. His mental meanderings have little connection to reality. He rattles on about Neo-Nazis in Ukraine, when there are very few, if any, while the streets of Moscow are crawling with skinheads, who are Neo-Nazis. His poor knowledge of Christianity and scripture also render him unworthy of being taken seriously.
His idea of communists being pensioners is hilarious. He obviously knows nothing about Putin, and last I looked, Putin was not a pensioner. Putin, however, is a voluntary communist and a dictator.
Strannik is educating us. It is an education in subtlety. It is an education in fine distinctions used or abused. We can all learn something here. Disinformation is never simply what it is. Every design gives away its purpose, if only you can tease it out. Why would Vladimir even be here if there were not something we have missed, or something he is trying to say; for a presence may have more than one reading. Even a lie hides a deeper truth. Through misdirections, find the direction. Do not dismiss a mind — whether friend or foe — that is trying to solve a problem (even if it is the mind of an enemy). One should learn when a signal is being sent that deserves deciphering. In this case, it is already deciphered and in plain sight. Not even disguised. If you burn a bridge you will not be able to cross over. What if, despite all, you must one day cross over? Let’s not be so quick to laugh when we do not understand the WHO and the WHY of it. Some things are born out of far-seeing.
Jeff, he may educate, but only to a point. I’ve little subtilty in his posts. perhaps it’s because I’ve seen such sewage time and again, but I don’t think it takes much to see through his bilge. One must seek to be well informed to realize what is going on, however. That really doesn’t take much effort, but it does require that want to be well informed and have an open mind.
Strannik, in my opinion, has passed to point of being useful. He’s simply a Putin toady.
Nobody can teach you more about yourself than an enemy.
Yes, you are right, Jeff, that we can learn from our enemies. I have learned much by debating hostile partners in debate.
Untruthful enemies eventually reveal themselves through dishonest self-censorship of inconvenient facts, twisting facts to fit their argument, changing the subject and just plain illogic. I see Strannik using all these tactics.
• He self-censors that after a century of communist rule in Russia, the Russian people have become a godless and immoral people. Others on this list have made that point about the Russian people.
• He claims to be against “modernism”, whatever he means by that, but he twists the Copernican Revolution in the same manner as a 21st century opponent of the Copernican Revolution. The Copernican Revolution needs to be understood according to the thought patterns of its time, not as it is twisted today.
• When I pointed out in the last thread that it was his description of the people of Donbass that they are stupid. Strannik changed the subject to the people themselves, to deflect attention away from his own description.
• Strannik described the Donbass people’s use of “communism” in such a way that they are either liars in that they didn’t really mean it, or stupid because they don’t understand it. He ruled out liars by saying that they are honest, therefore by Strannik’s description, they are stupid. Logic.
Untruthful opponents eventually catch themselves in their own cleverness.
He does try to have it both ways at times.
The communists/socialists/technocrats, etc. believe that humans can solve their own problems through human effort without God. If an individual has a disability, the technocrats argue that through technological innovation, he or she can be healed. The socialists see the poor and they assert that this can be remedied through redistribution of wealth. The Orthodox Believer, on the other hand, sees life as a struggle and recognizes that God sometimes uses adversity to bring humans closer to Him. There is no need to change anything, but rather to accept one’s struggle on earth in order to receive the eternal reward that is promised to those that follow Christ. These worldviews or perspectives are completely at odds with each other. The socialist doesn’t understand the acceptance of adversity, but rather argues that the rich use religion to oppress the poor. Yet, Christ says that we will have suffering on the earth and that we should accept this and stay faithful in the midst of persecution, just as Christ stayed faithful to His mission to die for our redemption. Christ also said, that a house that is divided against itself cannot stand. Was communism good for the Church in Russia? No, it caused a split into different jurisdictions, precisely over the issue of how to approach a communist, totalitarian government.
I don’t disagree, in fact I go further and say that the problems go even further, in Russia and everywhere else. To me it’s a problem of Modernity, period. That doesn’t mean I’m like the Amish really, but that Modernism (not technology)is a kind of secularized religion to which liberals and communists are just sectarian groups of (with most ” conservatives ” being yesterday’s liberals). So they’re really all at least half in the others camp to me- such as feminism ideological roots betray a Socialist free love origin.
Let us simply say this. The word “modernity” is not the word we should be using here. It merely denotes the present day and age. Let us say there is a dividing line between those who believe matter is epiphenomenal and those who believe that spirit in epiphenomenal. Modern thinking (i.e., of the present era) strongly favors the latter. But that is bound to change.
And indeed there are fringe groups all around who like to profit from wars and social unrest, but in addition to embarrassing Sovok types there are also nationalist and monarchist groups, chetniks from Serbia and Cossacks, etc..and so are they naive or wrong also? Or are they discerning that it’s better to let the Sovoks do the right thing for once even if their reasons aren’t so aligned with the good?
Bedlemsbard, I don’t call my brothers made in the image and likeness of God ” pigs”, either.
I hope not.
It’s a metaphor. You’ve proven yourself to be dishonest in my book years ago on TFP boards, and here. I’ll not engage you in fruitless discussion.
Mr. Nyquist, regarding using terms like “Modernity ” etc…I do think that the wording is useful, because we have a clear break with the past that began in the 7000th year from Creation, 1492 AD, and gathered steam after that, especially with the Copernican Revolution. I think men around that time, certain men with background in the esoteric and hermetic teachings, were able for the first time to have the financial backing from people like
Cosimo Medici to ” go public ” and start trying to create a world in their philosophical image. That isn’t to say you’re wrong re: phenomenal versus epiphenomenal, spirit and matter, but that it could go further back.
You favor a confusion of language.
Strannik, I’d be interested if you please, and get the chance; what’s your opinion of, Saint Gregory The New?
Excuses, excuses.
Jeff, Thank you for your outstanding, if disturbing, analysis of the current crisis in Ukraine etc. When I came across Chi Haotian’s speech some time ago, I assumed it must be a hoax as no one else was addressing China’s genocidal plans outlined in his speech. Only recently I came across John Moore and your podcast addressing China’s plan to exterminate the American people and occupy the land. At this critical hour, why is no-one else talking about this, if it is truly China’s plan? Do you think Russia/China’s plan is to exterminate Europeans and occupy Europe as well, or just control its population under a totalitarian Communist regime?
In 2020 Chinese businessmen came to Ireland to buy County Louth to build a Chinese city for its citizens.
https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/billionaire-to-visit-louth-in-bid-to-build-nextpolis-city-for-hong-kong-citizens-39497216.html.
Martin Armstrong describes how he advised Chinese businessmen who wanted to buy an entire province in Australia some years ago. Both plans fell through, but highlight China’s desire for “Lebensraum” and intent to move into underpopulated countries. Friends who recently returned from Africa speak of significant Chinese presence there, and also how the Chinese mistreat Africans who they consider inferior.
Russia may have a similar plan regarding select European countries. Some, like Gordon Chang, are catching on to the importance of Chi’s speech. And China wants sub Saharan Africa, too.
@JRNyquist: “China wants sub Saharan Africa”
This is unsurprising to me, as they are basically colonizing that continent with their rapacious “BRI” project (“belt-and-road-initiative”). China puts its own Han employees to work on these endeavors typically, instead of the local population. Also, China gives the participating countries these impossible to pay back loans that come with a literal and figurative high cost if and when the borrowing countries default. It’s a horrible system that I’ve been keeping my eye on for a while through news reports and news articles.
Yes!
Russia Cuts Off Key Gas Pipeline To Europe Amid Rising Tensions
Thomas Catenacci on February 2, 2022
The flow of natural gas through a key Russian-controlled pipeline suddenly stopped Wednesday as tensions continue to increase between Russia and the West.
The Yamal-Europe pipeline’s liquified natural gas (LNG) flows, which are operated by Russian state-run firm Gazprom and have usually been pumped westward from Russia to Germany through Poland, were halted early Wednesday, European data showed, according to Reuters. The sudden stoppage reportedly represented a setback after leaders expected the pipeline to return to its normal flow pattern.
In December 2021, Gazprom slowed the pipeline’s gas flows, which represent 10% of the region’s supply, and the company reversed the flow direction from westward to eastward. The sudden reversal sent natural gas prices, which had already spiked amid a European energy crisis, even higher.
Gazprom and the Russian government said that the alteration was a “commercial” decision and that customers would continue to receive purchased gas. But geopolitical tensions between Russia and members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have increased over the last several weeks, potentially putting Europe’s energy supply at risk.
Russia controls nearly 46% of European gas imports, according to European Union data.
“A disruption in the physical energy supplies transiting Ukraine would, clearly, most acutely affect natural gas markets in Europe,” a senior Biden administration official told reporters last week.
“And so we’re engaging our European allies to coordinate our response planning, including talking to them how they deploy their existing energy stockpiles, which are, obviously, at significantly low levels this year due to the reduced Russian supplies over the last several months,” the official said.
On Jan. 25, the White House announced it would help facilitate greater non-Russian natural gas flows into Europe. Such imports would come from North Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the U.S.
“We are collaborating with governments and market operators on supply of additional volumes of natural gas to Europe from diverse sources across the globe,” President Joe Biden said in a joint statement with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Jan. 28. “LNG in the short-term can enhance security of supply while we continue to enable the transition to net zero emissions.”
Gazprom didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
dailycallernewsfoundation .org/2022/02/02/russia-cuts-off-key-gas-pipeline-to-europe-amid-rising-tensions
_________________________________________________________________________________
Oil prices deepen rally above $90 a barrel toward fresh 7-year high
Last Updated: Feb. 4, 2022 at 10:28 a.m. ET
First Published: Feb. 4, 2022 at 5:48 a.m. ET
By Myra P. Saefong and Barbara Kollmeyer
U.S. and global benchmarks for crude-oil futures marched above $90 a barrel on Friday, as a harsh winter storm raged in the U.S., piling onto myriad supply worries.
“The latest upswing was triggered by a cold snap in Texas, which is fueling concerns about production outages in the Permian Basin, the largest U.S. shale play. A year ago, a period of extreme cold weather had caused massive disruptions to oil production there,” said Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, in a note to clients.
About 350,000 homes and businesses in states such as Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas were without power in the U.S. on Friday, due to a winter storm that brought freezing rain and snow. More heavy precipitation and ice was expected to hit the eastern portion of the country Friday.
Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott said the state was holding up, with about 70,000 outages by Thursday morning, compared with a crippling storm last year that left 4 million without power.
West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery CL00, 2.60% CL.1, 2.59% CLH22, 2.60% climbed by $2.42, or 2.7%, to $92.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A settlement around this level would be the highest for a front-month contract since late September 2014, FactSet data show. For the week, prices traded roughly 6.8% higher.
April Brent crude BRN00, 2.58% BRNJ22, 2.58%, the global benchmark, gained $2.21, or 2.4%, to $93.32 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. That Friday level, if it holds, would mark the highest settlement since early October 2014. Prices were poised for a weekly rise of 5.4%.
Fritsch said Commerzbank is lifting its Brent forecast for this year to $90 per barrel in the current quarter from $80. “This is due to the steep rise in the risk premium on account of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is only likely to diminish gradually. For this reason, we expect the oil price to be still elevated in the second quarter at $85 (previous forecast: $75),” he said, in a note to clients.
Stronger-than-expected demand is also a key reason that prices are forecast to regain its pre-pandemic level by midyear at the latest.
“What is more, OPEC+ has been unable for months to fully implement the agreed production hikes,” he said.
marketwatch .com/story/oil-prices-climb-to-new-seven-year-high-above-91-a-barrel-11643971736
Vladimir Putin’s not losing any sleep over the Ukraine conflict.
The Russian president appeared to doze off during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics Friday as Ukraine’s national team marched through the stadium.
https://nypost .com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/02/putin-ukraine-olympics-feat-image.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=744
https://nypost .com/2022/02/04/vladimir-putin-falls-asleep-at-beijing-olympics-as-ukrainian-team-is-introduced/
Jet lag is no joke.
No it isn’t. When I flew to Germany as a kid it was bad. Just as bad to go to New Jersey from Germany. Later went to Naples, Italy on orders from the Navy, it was all over. It was particularly bad since I couldn’t sleep on the plan, and, in the end, went 56 hours without sleep before I finally got into a bed. My ship was at sea at the time as well. Took 5 weeks before I was finally able to report aboard.
Coming back to states was quite a bit better as we brought the ship back to decommission. Almost as nice as a cruise ship, except I had to work. 🙂
Jeff, I watched your interview with Seth when it first appeared, and as I said in a previous post, I think it was a very important one as it would have reached a large and different audience from your usual one.
With the announcement of an open Russia-China agreement amounting in such times to an Axis, it seems to be a matter of timing as to when the hammer falls. I can understand Putin not wanting to expend blood and treasure in achieving his and Xi’s hegemonic aims, if he can avoid it. However, he might think he can achieve a relatively bloodless global coup by substituting surprise and velocity for the gradual turning of the screw.
I wonder if he would judge that the US (and some other Western nations) are now approaching a convenient point of maximum domestic chaos and confusion for those governments, whereby the ability to react to a major and multi-pronged incursion accompanied by the internal sabotage you mentioned, would be a likely jumping-off point much earlier than is officially anticipated, even by those who understand his and Xi’s major objectives?
I am thinking in particular of the truck convoys now causing disruption not only in the US and Canada but across several other NATO and nearby countries. The knock-on for effective emergency logistics must be considerable, and might hamper a quick response.
I am being simple-minded by necessity here, but sometimes the most sophisticated planning is caught out by actions based on ruthlessness and decisions made a long time ago.
Xtuartb: Oh, yes, you are exactly right to think in this way. Putin wants maximum chaos here before the big push. Revolution has always been part of the ingredient package.
I think the election of Biden was greeted with celebration in the Kremlin and Peking. I wish Trump had dealt with the insurrection that was being staged in several big cities. alas.
There are some suggestions what would happen with Ukraine after the war. I would start with the fact that the Russian intelligence have already sent reconnaissance groups in the big Ukrainian cities and their task is to recruit politicians who would serve the Russians, to target and kill those who would be an obstacle to the Russian plans and all of it serves to prepare the capitulation of the big Ukrainian cities to the Russian aggressors during the war. Putin, Patrushev and the Russian intelligence for several years spend annually 200 million dollars for bribing and recruiting Ukrainian officials and big percentage of them have been in the policy for decades and they had KGB cards and now those KGB agents whose cards weren’t destroyed now serve FSB and SVR. When I mentioned killings of politicians, not only in Ukraine but in all CIS countries Russian killers, controlled by FSB counterintelligence from the Russian territory, kill inconvinient businessmen and politicians. Putin wants to create Union State between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Those who oppose the Russian aggression would be put after the war in concentration camps like the one in Donbass, called “Izolatsiya”. it is not necessarily for Russia to provoke a full-scale war because it simply can target the Ukrainian army positions with precise weapons like balistic missiles, cruise missiles and bombs thrown by the Russian military aviation and the other side the Russians can just take over the critical infrastructure of Ukraine, like they plan. Because the full-scale war means more spending on recovering of Ukrainian infrastructure after the probable taking over of the country by the Russian army. The annexation of Ukraine by Moscow would be very profitable because Ukraine exports corn and grain and contains oil and mostly gas reserves. All it costs billions of dollars which will go directly into the pockets of the global mafia called Kremlin. I can write more but the text is too long.
Of interest: https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2022/02/04/xi-putin-celebrate-unprecedented-friendship-at-genocide-games/
Mr.Nyquist, I have seen historian Stephen Kotkin discuss his books on Josef Stalin and I have been impressed by his scholarship.
Please tell me your thoughts regarding Kotkin’s statement that there is “…a Core Problem of Self De-Stabilization of Communist Regimes”. Kotkin uses Xi’s Communist China as his prime example and the former Soviet Union as a companion example.
I acknowledge my ignorance because I honestly fail to see the “Core Problem of Self De-Stabilization of Communist Regimes”.
What I do see is a Core Problem of Self Delusion of Joel Kotkin as a Consequence of Falling for the Grande Illusion of the Fall of Soviet Communism. Kotkin believes that what makes Jinping run is an implacable Fear that is the bases for all that he does…It is the Fear that-AGAINST ALL ODDS Xi Must
ASSURE that Red China does NOT follow the Path of Soviet Self Destruction by allowing Permissive, COMPASSIONATE Communism.
Here are my observations as I watched the Stephen Kotkin interview: 1. It is Jam packed with Fractured Fairy Tales. 2. It is filled with Plenty of Half Baked reasoning. 3. A lot of it doesn’t pass the So What Sniff Test; I.E. Too Much MAJORING in the MINORS. 4. Kotkin is Embarrassingly ignorant of some areas of American history and ignorant of the operation of political primaries in the American republic.
Mr. Nyquist what is your take on Joel Kotkin’s theory of the “Core Problem of Self De-Stabilization of Communist Regimes”.
What is your take on Kotkin’s belief that Putin is not committed to war with Ukraine and Putin is launching Bait and Switch tactics to induce concessions from the U.S.?
Mr. Nyquist, What do you know of Professor Kotkin’s background that may shed some Light on his Puzzling Assertions?
Thanks.
https://www.hoover.org/research/5-questions-stephen-kotkin
One correction, to start out: Kotkin’s first name is Stephen, not Joel. I read Volume I and II of his Stalin biography. It has many flaws but many virtues. Many books have flaws. Very few have real virtues. Yes, the first volume starts out with a somewhat rambling and unfocused opening. Yet the main value in Kotkin’s work comes at the end of Volume I, where he gives the best overall appreciation of Stalin’s role I have seen. I believe there are over 2,000 Stalin biographies in existence. I have read about five and am not a historian. Political analysis is my thing, and Kotkin offers a very compelling analysis which is worth the price of admission. You see, Communism is a crazy ideology. Imagine building a new society on something that is crazy. How do you do it? You are building something inherently unstable, against which human nature is going to rebel. People are going to hate this thing when it begins to be practiced. So how do you perpetuate it? Only through violence and terror, of course. As it turns out, Communism went from the abstract ideas of Marx to the concrete totalitarianism of Stalin. Lenin deserves some credit too, of course. Yet Stalin was the genius that made this crazy idea into an actual system. Kotkin realized that none of Stalin’s colleagues could have achieved what he achieved because they believed in Marxism ideologically. Stalin was clever enough to understand what Marx and Lenin were really all about. POWER. He quoted Lenin in saying there was no Marxist dogma. He thus updated Marxism into a tool for getting and holding power in a ghastly but effective way. Only Stalin, as a uniquely talented psychopath, had the ability to do this. This is Kotkin’s thesis, and I believe he is right. Stalin literally took the unworkable abstractions of Marx, Engels and Lenin, and built a real system. It is a system of the psychopath, by the psychopath and for the psychopath. What was inherently self-destabilizing about Marxism was the naive Marxist true believer. You need such believers, but they must not be in control. Here is why Kotkin seems to praise Stalin at the end of Volume I. Stalin is the only person who could have made the thing work. When Khrushchev turned the system away from Stalin and adopted the long-range strategy of Soviet liberalization leading to the controlled liberalization of the 1980s (a plan adopted in 1960) he made a strategic mistake. He departed from Stalin. That mistake played out in full during 1989-1990. The system slowly attempted to recover from this error in the 1990s, and you subsequently find a Stalin revival underway by 2002. At Putin’s first inauguration as President of Russia, in 2000, Stalin was toasted. What the KGB and Party cadre learned from 1989-1990 is what the Chinese leaders knew. The art of repression is central to their system. No scheme of liberalization followed by convergence with the liberal West is going to bring the world to adopt crazy Marxism. They will revolt against having their freedom taken away, and against their property confiscated. Stalin told them there would have to be a war. They could use deception all they wanted. Of course. But it would all boil down to a war. And Putin understands this. Xi understands this. You cannot overthrow the bourgeoisie without bloodshed. Clausewitz was right, Sun Tzu was wrong.
Great points.
Mr. Nyquist; Thank you for kind remarks. You have been extremely helpful in clarifying and illuminating these matters for me. Please keep up the Good Work!
POST SCRIPT TO CICERO: I just watched Kotkin’s interview with the Hoover Institution you referred to. Kotkin’s analysis in the first part of the video is based on an understanding of economics and is pretty good as far as it goes. However, he does not know the defector literature and has not understood the importance of the Operation Trust strategy; that is, he seems to know nothing about using controlled opposition movements to disorient your enemy. (He covers NEP in Volume I of his Stalin biography, but does not seem to understand the importance of the TRUST). Consequently, Kotkin does not realize that Gorbachev’s liberalization was prepared in advance and managed through agents of the KGB and Communist Party, especially using secret structures built during two decades of preparation (which began with Alexander Shelepin’s reorganization of the KGB in the late 1950s). Yes, the liberalization went partly out of control. And he gives the reasons why they suffered a setback. But he mistakes this setback for a genuine collapse of the WHOLE system. As Golitsyn warned, the secret structures were there to prevent a complete collapse if things should spin out of control. These structures would then guide the process to support the main strategic deception — leading to eventual rearmament, and a future combination with China to dominate a world that had lapsed into complacency. So, in my opinion, Kotkin is mistaken in saying the entire Soviet system collapsed. The collapse of the Soviet system was never complete. Soviet structures remained in place and preserved the heart of the system. That’s where KGB Colonel Putin came from — from inside those structures (as Deputy Mayor of St. Petersburg). Thus, despite the setbacks, the long-range plan could go forward. As for Kotkin’s comments on America politics, saying we need more “smoke-filled rooms” and less democracy, is a notion of political scientists in the late-1980s. Ben Wattenberg and his son Marty Wattenberg were promoting these ideas. I knew Marty at UC Irvine and studied these notions under him as a graduate student. Some of these ideas made sense, however, it did not take into account the infiltration of the Democratic Party by communists who were determined to use the party as their vehicle. I attended a communist meeting in the 1980s at which this strategy was discussed. This is no fantasy. But mainstream political scientists would never admit this was a real thing. There is a kind of faith in our institutions which tends to ignore deeper sociological thinkers who warned that a degenerative process (through socialism and capitalism) was underway. Pareto warned of the growing cowardice of the elites, Burckhardt warned of cultural degeneration, Spengler wrote of organic decay, while Le Bon warned of an inevitable socialist victory followed by universal collapse. All these men had part of the truth. Most political scientists of my generation either never read these great thinkers, or dismissed their ideas as out of date. Scholarship has its limits and most are specialists. Alas.
And Clausewitz advocated the “axe theory”. I’m fearing the build up around Ukraine and the naval deployment could be cover for sharpening the axe for a massive first strike on the US.
Sun-tzu said all warfare is based on deception. Clausewitz said “no.” He said all warfare is based on violence. And he explained how it works. Deception has its place, of course, but warfare is essentially about violence. Massive, directed, violence.
Historians can’t even determine when Sun-tzu, may have actually lived. Mao said that power flows from the barrel of a gun. Miyamoto Musashi said something to the effect, that ‘guns are superior until swords are drawn.’ Ultimately, he abandoned the sword for the bokken.
WICID system in effect. Warfare Information Counter information Deception.
What else? No matter what, they know that they need to defeat the U.S. Despite our military being weakened, we are still the big cahuna that needs to be defeated to make sure that we don’t mess up their plans. If we are allowed to remain undefeated, we can come back to bite them after they have worn themselves down in their attacks on other targets.
What better way to defeat the U.S. if not through the shock and awe of a massive first strike followed up by invasion?
Barth, you asked my what I thought of ” St. Gregory the New”. I do not have an opinion of Gregory Rasputin as a Saint, but I do know that he was and is even to this day the victim of a vicious smear campaign against his character (and by association, the otherwise untouchable Romanov royal family)during his lifetime and to today long after his murder. Some in reaction find him to have been a holy man, others do not. I suspect that he was, the embodiment of the Holy Russia of the common people they thought they had to murder in order to murder the Russian people and Orthodoxy.
I appreciate your thoughtful reply, Strannik.
Rasputin is a derogatory term, applied to those so, poor as to have no surname. I wonder if Putin is a derivation of that? Tsar Nicholas awarded Gregory the surname, New, in gratitude for the successful healing prayers for his son.
In reading the fascinating book, Rasputin: The Untold Story, by Joseph T. Fuhrmann, I take it upon myself to refer to Gregory as Saint. As you may know, he had an office where people would line up with prayer requests. Many were healed.
Many would hand Saint Gregory bags of cash along with their prayer requests. Gregory wouldn’t even take a peek in the bag. The next parishioner in need of prayer for money, he would hand the bag to. He, himself was struggling to support his family.
In latter years, he became more and more a carnal believer, and his power ever increased, spiritually as well as politically. He nearly ended up running Russia singlehandedly. Finally, they tried to kill him in many different violent attacks, all of which failed, until the final one.
I greatly admire, Saint Gregory The New.
The Intel Crab
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3h
After weeks of hardware build up, the Russian air force is now surging troops westward.
Satellite evidence also suggests that units – particularly those deployed in #Belarus – have begun to leave FOB areas and locate to forward positions.
Not. Good.
They are getting set.
I just know Moe does not like America and he is NOT in charge. A couple of leftist and women are. The men all left the building.
That said Moe does not care about defending American interest or who dies NOT doing it. Pray for our soldiers there and curse Moe and his handlers.
There seems to be a cult of goddess worshipers, and an effort to revive Babylon, to gain control of people power.