Introduction: Mr. Wang Dinggang (王定刚) is an anti-CCP media influencer within the Chinese diaspora community. He has sources inside China and his content frequently focuses on analyzing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), international politics, and Chinese communist strategy. This interview with Mr. Wang (a.k.a, Lude) took place on 5 June 2026.
Special note: While mainstream media sources claim that Chinese oil imports have fallen to 7.8 million barrels of oil per day, Mr. Wang says China is daily pulling 10 million barrels of oil out of the Persian Gulf (in addition to Russian and African sources). He alleges the existence of a secret pipeline from Iran leading into Iraq. Mainstream analysts will probably dismiss what Mr. Wang says here, alleging that China is making up its oil shortfall by drawing 4-5 million barrels per day from a stockpile of approximately 1.2 billion barrels. Looking closer at the math, China is the second-largest consumer of oil in the world, using approximately 16.5 million barrels of oil per day, with 4.1 million to 4.7 million coming from China’s domestic oil fields. China therefore must import approximately 12 billion barrels of oil per day. In this interview Mr. Wang explains how China’s oil reserve actually works and how China has access to more oil, and cheaper oil, than anyone realizes.
JRN: What is the actual situation in China? We have heard that Xi Jinping is engaged in a struggle with certain generals. Is this true?
LUDE: This is all according to CCP official statements. Many things in China are information warfare, so if we cannot verify these stories independently, we do not know what to think. It seems that Xi is preparing for a large-scale battle with the United States, so that all of this is a smokescreen. The main point is don’t get fooled by these stories from inside China. There is this figure, Yao Cheng, who claimed to be a dissident. He spread many of these stories. Many people interviewed and credited him; but he went back to China recently. This shows that he was a mouthpiece of the regime, since no one hostile to the regime can safely return to China. This Yao Cheng even claimed to have been arrested by Chinese authorities. When he left China he claimed it was too dangerous too return. He brought out much of this questionable information, then he suddenly went back to China and said, ‘China is much better. The U.S. is the problem.’ So he should not be trusted as a source. This is just one example of information warfare techniques. I also recognize this as a fake deception because he was someone who claimed my 57-minute tape of the Guangdong civil-military meeting was a fake. He also claimed that the submarine accident I reported was a fake as well. But even the Times has reported that my information was correct.
JRN: I have seen satellite photos of a new type of Chinese submarine. It is 360 feet long, no conning tower, and has a new type of propulsion system. Do you have any information on this submarine?
LUDE: This new propulsion system is something I mentioned in one of my broadcasts. They have a shaftless pump system. I believe this is an immature system and does not function as well as U.S. systems. Whether it works as they hoped, I have my doubts.
JRN: Is this a ballistic missile submarine or an attack submarine?
LUDE: An attack submarine.
JRN: What is the status of the Chinese Petroleum reserve of 1.2 billion barrels. Stories have appeared recently from Chinese sources claiming that the Chinese premier conducted a surprise inspection of the reserve and found it contained water and sludge. Is this a false report or authentic?
LUDE: I believe this is a rumor. This number is too big for their reserve. The oil reserve in the CCP is dispersed and kept safe on China’s shadow tanker fleet. It is on the sea and difficult to detect and monitor, and they can get benefits from that. I do not believe this rumor is true.
JRN: This fleet must be very big to hold China’s oil reserves.
LUDE: The number of shadow fleet ships is 4,000 ships, with many being tankers of various sizes, the largest having a 2 million barrel carrying capacity. This kind of oil reserve is very hard to target in wartime.
JRN: This sounds like an ingenious method to protect the Chinese oil reserves against strikes from drones, such as those launched by Ukraine against Russia’s oil storage areas and refineries.
LUDE: That number of 4,000 ships in the shadow fleet is current, and those tankers can easily transfer their oil when needed. Also, they can use these tankers to control the international oil price. They are trying to build this fleet to 6,000 ships. The oil reserve on the sea is a key strategy in China maintaining its lifeline. In peaceful time, this can contribute to China’s unrestricted warfare in manipulating oil prices.
JRN: Is China receiving oil from Venezuela? And how much oil is coming from Iran presently? There are stories that Chinese tankers have been allowed to load up with oil in the Persian Gulf. With Russia’s oil system under attack, has China been receiving shipments from Russia?
LUDE: Russian oil is flowing overland to China by train and pipeline. It is hard to get oil by sea from Russia at present.
JRN: Of course, China is getting some from Russia by pipeline, but this cannot amount to much. Russia has built extra-large oil cars for trains, of course, but again, this is only a trickle compared to the 12 plus million barrels a day that China needs for its imports. If China has shadow fleet tankers at sea, flagged to various countries, where are they loading up with this large stockpile of oil? They must have a shortfall somewhere.
LUDE: You are right, the pipeline transportation from Russia is inadequate, and the train transport is small. But there is one loophole in the Persian Gulf blockade, since China can get oil from Kuwait and Iraq. They have a free port there and Chinese shadow tankers can load 10 million barrels per day from three ports. The CCP is also building a new port in Kuwait with a 4 million barrel capacity. These ports have a secret pipeline directly connected to Iran. So if you take the Iranian island of Kharg, this will not block Iranian exports.
JRN: Is the U.S. Navy aware of the fact they are allowing Chinese tankers loaded with Iranian oil through the blockade? This is very troubling, if true.
LUDE: The current blockade is blocking ships that load oil from Iranian ports directly. If the ships are from Kuwait and Iraq they are not blocked. This is where the problem lies.
JRN: So, the Chinese and Iranians are getting past the blockade and shipping Iranian oil to China under the nose of the American fleet. This is quite incredible.
LUDE: This is what you might call an “open secret.” Many people know about this. China was getting oil this way from Iran before the war.
JRN: And the Americans are completely fooled by this?
LUDE: Of course, I do not know whether U.S. intelligence knows about this or not. The mainstream media never mentions this. The general public knows nothing.
JRN: Are American officials allowing Chinese oil to secretly transit the blockade because we do not want trouble with China?
LUDE: This is not because of appeasement. The money involved is huge and there is underground money, laundered money, and bitcoin, and if you send someone to investigate they can offer you 50,000 barrels and it is impossible to trace this. So this would be a lot of money. Kuwait and Iraq are allies of the United States and so you need really hard evidence to shut down their ports to Chinese ships. Unless there is a high-level investigation pushed by the White House, nothing is going to get exposed.
JRN: So, the Iranians know not to attack the Chinese tankers?
LUDE: They are on the same side as China and will not fire on them, of course.
JRN: I conducted a brief study on Chinese infrastructure projects in Mexico. I was shocked at the scale of construction projects underway. Then there is Chinese involvement with the cartels in Mexico. Something is going on. They are building up port capacity and rail lines. They say it is to bypass the Panama Canal, but I am skeptical. I suspect China is building Mexico into a giant logistical support base for Chinese military operations in the Western Hemisphere. Am I paranoid to think this way?
LUDE: You are 100 percent right on this. Your concern is right. I know the CCP has a big involvement with the Sinaloa Cartel and they are building their relationship with a new cartel. It is a guerrilla warfare base and more. Your concern is legitimate.
JRN: We see a Russian buildup against Japan which recently caused Japan to shift forces to Hokkaido. Is China preparing any moves against Japan or South Korea? You mentioned China’s preparations for a war against the United States. How does China intend to deal with Japan and South Korea as war approaches?
LUDE: The Far East is the next theater to erupt after Iran. Russia is positioning forces to apply border pressure on Japan. China is doing the same thing. Northeast Asia is going to become a hotspot. This is not just aimed at Japan. Because this is a hotspot, Russia and China will apply this pressure after Iran settles down. Japan, Russia, and China have a core interest in Northeast Asia. They all have interests there. It is like the Middle East in terms of conflict potential.
JRN: What is the reason for threatening Japan? Are they trying to force Japan to abandon its alliance with the United States?
LUDE: Japan is a very important country. If you control Japan, you have control of South Korea. If you control Japan, you have access to advanced technology. Japan is America’s most important ally in Asia.
JRN: We see how important drones have become in destroying oil infrastructure and stopping tanker traffic. President Trump has recently said that Cuba is next on his list. We recently received reports of at least 300 Russian drones are in Cuba. Is China also sending drones to Cuba, possibly to block U.S. oil tankers in the Gulf of Mexico? And is China providing military assistance to other countries?
LUDE: Yes, they are sending drones and sea mines, missiles, and more. Cuba is like Iran for China. There are two passages around Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico. It would be relatively easy for Chinese drones to close off these shipping lanes to block off the U.S. Gulf Coast.
JRN: China has built these mobile port-ships or mulberries for landing vehicles in an overseas invasion. Do you know what the status of these ships are at present?
LUDE: These temporary ports are not a big deal for China. This is piece of cake for them, while nuclear submarines are more difficult.
JRN: You mentioned the Iran war winding down in the near future. How does China think the war will end? Do they have a plan?
LUDE: How the war ends does not matter to the CCP. Their primary interest is to infiltrate the new regime [after the death of many top leaders]. What happens on the fourth day of the war, if Chinese agents get control over the IRCG, then China wins the conflict. If there is a regime change, the new leaders, whatever their situation, will be targeted by Chinese intelligence infiltrators.
JRN: When 47 Iranian leaders were killed, I assume some of these leaders were already Chinese leaders. So China must make sure new agents are moved to the top leadership positions, right?
LUDE: Yes, China can always rebuild its position within Iran. As long as the CCP still has money and power, they can infiltrate wherever they see fit.
JRN: Is China resupplying Iran at present? Are they giving Iran a lot of weapons?
LUDE: China can send supplies to Iran by land since large-scale transportation into Iran is very hard by sea.
JRN: Can’t they use trains or large trucks through Central Asia?
LUDE: Pakistan is a possible route that cannot be blocked. Turkmenistan has a channel, but these channels are not as safe as Pakistan for moving weapon systems. China does not trust Turkmenistan as much as Pakistan.
JRN: It looks like China is building up against India, with significant infrastructure being built in the Himalayan Mountains. Can you comment on this?
LUDE: One of the reasons for China’s continuous construction is to protect Chinese missile launchers in Xinjiang and the Western desert bases. This is a strategically sensitive area. This buildup is more defensive, I think. It is protection of a very sensitive strategic military assets in Xinjiang.
JRN: So China is afraid of India?
LUDE: They are not afraid of India. They are interested in expanding into Southeast Asia and other regions. If you want to talk about the expansion of Asia, they will go to Laos and islands claimed by Japan, like Senkaku and Okinowa. India is totally different. They cannot brainwash or manage the Indian people.
JRN: How do the Chinese communists see the Ukraine War? You mentioned earlier that the war was a five-year-long laboratory for developing new weapons and military doctrines. Do you still hold to this? It appears that Ukraine is winning the war now. Have you revised your previous view?
LUDE: If you are looking back, the Ukraine War started in 2022, so it is now almost five years. This conflict is a low-level combat. There is not much training going on there. China is switching their focus to the Iran battle. They are constantly using every war to find strategies that will allow them to defeat the Americans.
JRN: What kind of objectives must China achieve before the CCP can confront the United States and defeat it as a leading power?
LUDE: This is an ongoing process. This is not just about military power. They want to defeat the U.S. dollar system, which is what is being weakened by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz today. The U.S. has to be weakened in order for the CCP to prevail.
JRN: Is the CCP leadership disgusted with Russia for failing in the Ukraine War?
LUDE: Yes, and you should remember that Xi talked about this. China blames Russia for not following the CCP way of attacking.
JRN: How do the CCP leaders see the Ukraine War ending?
LUDE: The CCP interest is in not ending this war. They want this war to continue because it will divert the U.S. and Europe’s attention away from themselves. What they want is Russia to attack the Baltic countries, Poland, or other NATO countries. They want the U.S. tied down in Europe as well as the Middle East.
JRN: I assume they want this because they have aggressive plans of their own.
LUDE: Yes, yes. They want the U.S. to be stuck in long-running wars in Europe and the Persian Gulf. They do not want to the war to spill over to other gulf countries. That would be against their interest.
JRN: Because they are getting oil from those countries?
LUDE: Yes. Iran is a little different from Russia. The Iran war is more global. China has proxies there and in other places. The CCP wants to set a trap there. They want the U.S. stuck or trapped there. China can always manage to get oil as America bleeds its resources.
JRN: When was this secret pipeline from Iran through Iraq built?
LUDE: Did you know that some oil wells in Iraq are controlled by the CCP?
JRN: I did not know that.
LUDE: There is a sub-company of a PLA company, called Zhenhua Oil Company. Iraq has an oil export committee that is controlled by the CCP.
JRN: Controlled by Chinese agents?
LUDE: This is a public secret. A lot of people know this. Iraq’s largest oil fields are controlled by the CCP. After the Iraq War American oil companies did not get in. Chinese oil companies got it. This is not a secret.
JRN: China controls all the Iraqi oil fields?
LUDE: Several of the biggest ones.
JRN: And this Chinese company operates in Iran, as well, I suppose?
LUDE: The Iranian regime is stronger, so they control their own oil fields. Iraq’s government is weaker and easier to corrupt.
JRN: These points are seldom notice in our media. This has been a thought-provoking interview. These are all my questions for now. Thank you.
LUDE: Thank you.
END
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78 responses to “China Report for June 2026: An Interview With Lude”
There is a YT video on Glenn Diesen’s channel video that just came out a few hours ago (I won’t post direct links here to videos), that just came out which shows how they think. Everything Mr. Nyquist has said is so true and this video proves it. I normally don’t watch this propaganda, but I wanted to see how they think with regards to using nukes on us. Glenn Diesen is hosting John Mearsheimer and Sergey Karaganov: Nuclear Strike on Europe to Restore Deterrence. Sergey basically says Russia will win a nuclear war, it’s clear as crystal. It’s worth it to view just to prove how right Mr. Nyquist is, it’s a real eye opener and scary the way they talk, Sergey is a bit furtive as Mearsheimer presses his interpretation a bit, I wonder if Mearsheimer is starting to have second thoughts. Thank you again Jeff for all you do.
There is a fantastical belief in the West that nuclear weapons represent the end of the world and nobody would dare to use them. The moral scruples of normal people do not apply to mass murderers who seek power over millions of helpless people. From the point of view of mass murders, nuclear weapons promise a final victory over humanity. Dominance is a pleasurable sensation. The individual human being does not matter to those who value dominance above all. The suffering of millions is self-affirming to such characters.
My abject apology for the typos in the previous post. I also wanted to add that Sergey says the nukes are already positioned for use against NATO, Ukraine, etc. So he is essentially admitting to the buildup that’s been going on.
Jeffrey Nyquist you said previously that there was a possibility that the Ukrainian secret service had infiltrated the Russian FSB and that this could be one of the reasons why Ukraine had not fallen so long after the start of the war, do you think this happened? to what extent?
Ukrainian survival suggests that this happened. I do not know to what extent.
jeffrey nyquist you commented in a previous post about Alexey Alexeevich Molyakov and how he looks like Putin you wrote that you didn’t know what Putin could be like today do you know? What is your view on him?
I do not understand the question.
In a previous article you said that you found the similarity between Alexey Alexeevich Molyakov and Putin strange in your view, is this man related to Putin, perhaps father, brother, grandfather? Did you find out? Sorry for the confusing previous questions and that was a translation error
I do not know any way of investigating this at present.
In a previous article you said that you found the similarity between Alexey Alexeevich Molyakov and Putin strange but that you didn’t know what this man would be like in Putin, today did you find out what he would be like in Putin?
Hi Jeff, Good interview with Mr. Wang, he comes across as much more credible than the previous interview. I don’t think that the US military is fooled by anything that China does, I think that they choose to look the other way.
I am interested in the Anthrax scare at the Pentagon, I tend to agree with Lee that this wasn’t just a faulty sensor, I think that we are going to be continuously sent “back off” messages until we are completely taken over.
I think the Pentagon has no motive to hide an anthrax attack. At least, I cannot think of a motive.
It seems to me that we would be exposing how vulnerable we are and how penetrated the Pentagon is.
If it was an anthrax attack nobody died. What vulnerability?
Maybe whoever did it wasn’t intending on killing people but just sending a message to the Pentagon that they are capable. If the Pentagon has been penetrated by our adversaries then I don’t think that would be a stretch.
The problem with penetrating American institutions is how to effectively use the penetration. It’s not always easy to convert such successes into victory. We need to be vigilant and honest about such penetrations; but there is no reason for defeatism or panic, which I sometimes detect in certain arbitrary judgments. I do not believe there was an anthrax attack on the Pentagon last Wednesday. I do not understand the argument that there was an attack. I do not believe in infallible sensors or inexplicable denials.
From Moscow with Malice: Russia’s Christ Mask Exposed
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=or_2PrvfpTM
This is a good message
Very good!
Jeff, This is off subject but I was hoping you would suggest an online newspaper that you think is the most credible. I am not renewing my Telegraph subscription and would like to replace it.
jeffrey nyquist have you read the book Unholy Spirits: Occultism and New Age Humanism by gary north? If you read it, what is your view of it?
I have not read that book.
Jeffrey Nyquist, if the phenomenon of Fatima was in fact the saint, why didn’t the Catholic church do what was said by the supposed saint? your vision please?
There must be a problem with your translation. The language in your text makes no sense. A saint is a person. Fatima is not a person. Fatima cannot be a saint. It is like asking whether London is a barber.
Jeffrey Nyquist From what you studied and read, does the Fatima phenomenon have similarities with reports of extraterrestrial UFOs?
The events at Fatima have been examined by ufologists who find similar phenomena, similar objects reportedly seen. This is curious, but we should not be surprised since UFO/UAP reports sometimes align with angelology and demonology. We should not be surprised at these correspondences.
Jeffrey Nyquist Over the years have you seen that people have woken up to the imminent Chinese Russian nuclear attack against the USA? Or is it still minimal even with all the reports?
I still maintain that we are not taking the threat of a nuclear war seriously. Sorry to say. I do not believe we will take such a thing seriously. We are like children in this regard. We prefer to believe in the Tooth Fairy.
Jeffrey Nyquist you mentioned that democracy is not a good thing and that what protects a country is a capable aristocracy, what is your view of European monarchies? Do you think they are somehow protecting their countries because they are monarchies? Or do you think they are accelerating their fall against the communists? Do you think the immunity of these monarchies benefits communists?
What monarchies do you refer to. There are many kinds, and like most systems today they are in various stages of degeneration.
jeffrey nyquist monarchies like norwegian swedish danish english dutch? Do they all seem to have been infiltrated?
These are mixed monarchies. Checks and balances. Freedom. Elected prime ministers. They are so drives called “democracies.” They do not differ much from republics.
Jeffrey Nyquist, if the phenomenon of Fatima was indeed from God, why didn’t the Catholic church do what was said by the supposed divine phenomenon? Could it be that there are more things in the reports that the Catholic church has not disclosed? Can the church have access to details not disclosed to the public that make recognition impossible? your vision please?
This is a religious controversy. I would rather not enter into it.
OK thanks
Dear Mr. Renato,
the Vatican is in the hands of an APOSTATE semi-Protestant sect of enemies of the Church, the communists have infiltrated the Vatican and the whole worldwide section of the Catholic Church, perverted the Catholic religion, which is nothing else but Catholic Tradition and tried to silence the influence of the true Holy See, by imposing these heretical changes and countermeasures that are all contrary to the valid 1917 Code of Canon Law and the infallible doctrine of the Church regarding Papacy, Sacraments and so on.
The message of Fatima (the 3rd Secret) which the Novus Ordo Sect doesn’t want to publish -because it is about this Sect of the devil directly) – there is a serious indication that Pope Pius XII was intentionally deceived how the consecration of Russia should be done and did it by himself alone and not with all the bishops of the world.
Our Lady said to Sr. Lucia (before she was murdered and replaced by that heretic impostor woman – most likely a communist agent and who became part of the Novus Ordo Sect and thus apostatized from the Catholic Faith herself !!!) – so Our Lady stated to the true Sr. Lucia that the Holy Father will do it but it will be late (which means too late) as Russia has already spread her evils around the world, causing wars and persecutions against the (true) Catholic Church – you don’t see the impostor and layman apostate Prevost having any difficulties or himself being persecuted, do you ?
STAY AWAY from this horrible Sect of enemies of the Church, they are NOT Catholic and they have no authority nor jurisdiction in the Catholic Church NOR any authority to elect the Pope in the first place…they are all excommunicated and cannot do anything in the Church whatsoever – and they spread lot of lies and fabrications, including printing forgeries and changed forged books and so on, including the Catechism and Holy Scripture etc.
Jeffrey Nyquist I read your previous articles every day and see your responses to the comments and I see how detailed and honest you are and in your comments you talk about topics of the utmost importance, something that could decide the future of millions if not taken seriously (if the USA were destroyed and the communists dominated it would be tyranny and chaos worse than the fall of Rome) and there are so few subscribers to this blog in Brazil there is no analyst like it There are few readers with the ability to read and understand what you write, this is terrible, Jeffrey Nyquist, you should have hundreds of thousands here on this blog. But may God bless you!
Thank you for the kind words.
Jeffrey Nyquist are all your articles on this blog? Or have you already written on other sites?
I have over a thousand articles in other sites.
jeffrey nyquist I saw the article you quote Andrei Navrozov I read his article he says that the war in Ukraine could bring down the communists in Russia? this deep state of kgb? would this be possible?
Yes.
Garry Kasparov writes regularly about this. He says that the most important issue for those who want freedom for Russia is to assist Ukraine in defeating Russia on the battlefield.
This seems like a good plan for those who want to see Russia freed from the tyranny of the old communist apparatchiks. We see the monstrous nature of the regime in the way it expends the lives of its soldiers, the way they treats Ukrainian civilians, and the total disregard for truth or honor.
jeffrey nyquist sorry to ask you this but was your family russian? Did you have a grandfather in Russia or who worked for KGB? who was he?
I have no Russian ancestry. I am 86 percent Swedish and Norwegian, with the rest being German, Scottish, and English.
I have heard an argument that Ukraine began to gain the upper hand in the war after Andriy Yermak was dismissed and legal proceedings were initiated against him. Yermak was the main corrupt figure in President Zelenskyy’s inner circle and his closest associate. They spent a great deal of time together, worked closely, lived in the same bunker during the war.
Zelenskyy once said he would never dismiss Yermak and that they would leave together. Yet under pressure—possibly from Ukraine’s Western partners—he eventually removed him from office. Corruption seems to have been decreased and Ukraine directed more resources toward defense. Some officials appointed by Yermak were also removed.
A case has been opened against Yermak involving the misappropriation of funds that were intended for defense but were instead used to build four large houses on the banks of the Dnipro River (just the tip of the iceberg in the embezzlement cases). It is claimed that Yermak was one of the owners. There are also recordings where people refer to another owner simply as “Vova,” and many people believe this refers to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although Ukrainian law does not allow a president to be prosecuted while in office. The law in United States is much better in this respect.
So I think that Ukraine’s military successes were not as much due to Ukrainian spies operating in Russia, but instead because some of the Russian agents of influence inside Ukraine had been eliminated.
This is very interesting. I think done of the younger Ukrainian generals, especially in military intelligence, have done tremendous work behind the scenes.
Also some people say that if Syrskiy was removed as a Commander-in-Chief (who is a Russian by birth and a Soviet by mentality) and a younger general was appointed things would improve tremendously. But due to his Soviet mentality Syrskiy would never say no to the most stupid ideas of Zelenskiy and that is why he is in place. Zaluzhnyy was speaking his mind and was fired.
I think there is a complicated counterintelligence story behind all this. I have read biographies and have spoken to people who knew Zekenskyy in his television career— so many opinions, so many emotions, and contradictions. Zelenskyy certainly made mistakes. Or did he lay a trap? The younger military intelligence generals, however, have a tremendous grasp of the game, and they are the ones who deceived Russia’s intelligence services at the outset of the war. The army supposedly prepared behind the president’s back. Or did they? Wink, wink. I hope we will have the full story one day. How effectively did the geverals coordinate with Zekenskyy to deceive Russia? Things are not always as they appear. It had been shown that Zekenskyy had never tried to undermine his generals but leaves them to do their jobs. Very telling.
Yes, time will tell what is true and what is not. We don’t have all the facts.
But there are some little facts that I just can’t put together and present in a convincing way to show that Zelenskyy did not prepare for the war, probably believing that it would not happen.
One little fact is what happened to the biggest cargo plane in the world, Mriya. Before the war, Poland suggested hosting this plane in the face of the coming invasion. Zelenskyy declined. The plane was completely destroyed in the first three days of the war. What was the tactical advantage in that?
I know you can lie about your army, but these other facts do not lie.
The Swedish government issued leaflets telling people what to do if war started. Zelenskyy was telling people to unpack their 72-hour emergency kits because they would not be needed. What did he achieve?
Many people died who could have fled the occupied areas, and the rest mistrust him.
Either way, it looks bad. If he did not believe the war would start, then he was not very smart. If he did believe it, but did not want to show it, then he sacrificed civilians.
There was a tremendous political advantage in Zelenskyy making the Russians believe they would achieve complete surprise in February 2022. Do you know what Zelenskyy told his wife and his top officials the morning of the Russian attack? “It has begun.” Those were his first words to everyone he met. I think he knew exactly what was coming. The Russians were the ones surprised, with thousands of tank losses and massive truck losses. Russia achieved very little in those early weeks of the war. The Battie of Kiev was a decisive military defeat for Russia. Zelenskyy was part of the deception that led to that Russian defeat.
What I would really like to know is what happened in Oman, where Zelenskiy secretly flew in January 2020. Nikolay Patrushev happened to be in Oman at the same time. And Zelenskiy flew back on the same plane that Patrushev had flown into Oman on.
Yuriy Lutsenko has an interesting theory about that trip. (Yuriy Lutsenko is a former Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, serving in 2005–2006 and again from 2007–2010 under President Viktor Yushchenko, and a former Prosecutor General of Ukraine during Poroshenko’s presidency. He was imprisoned under Yanukovych.)
So Yuriy Lutsenko insists that there was a conversation in Oman between Zelenskiy and the Russians. The Russians proposed changing Ukraine’s course from democracy to a Soviet course. Zelenskiy declined. Then they told him to switch on the TV. He asked what channel; they said any channel. He did, and every channel was showing the plane catastrophe in which a Ukrainian passenger plane was shot down in Iran. It was January 8, 2020.
A month later, Zelensky fired the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Bohdan, and appointed Andriy Yermak. The one who, according to insider sources, was convincing Zelenskiy that there would be no war.
But nobody knows exactly what conversation took place there, what promises were made, or what compromising material was created.
Double agent games are the best way to feed your enemy with a false narrative. If you do not win this game with Russia, you lose the war. Ukraine won the Battle of Kiev and Russia suffered a massive defeat. We can judge from the outcome which side fooled the other. This is military analysis. There is no arguing with victory. Russia is in a desperate position now because one defeat leads to another.
Nyquist: “I think there is a complicated counterintelligence story behind all this.”
That’s a fascinating analysis of the double-agent games that may or may not have been taking place around the time of the 2022 invasion. Are there books, articles or blogs that discuss this in more detail?
You are saying that Zelensky deliberately baited Russia into launching the invasion by making Ukraine appear militarily unprepared. So then publicly insisting that Russia would not invade was part of the deception? Was the loss of southern Ukraine in the first weeks of the war also part of this deception or was that a real intelligence failure on Ukraine’s part? There doesn’t seem to be much benefit to allowing Russian double-agents in the local government to surrender so much territory to the enemy. I understand Valentina’s doubt about a strategy that resulted in a lot of Ukrainian civilians having to live under Russian occupation, even though that might finally change now. Was losing all that territory preventable or was it actually a factor in Ukraine winning the battle for Kyiv?
Question: do you think that if or when Ukraine is on the verge or retaking Crimea, Russia will threaten nuclear strikes on Europe, Ukraine or the US? It seems like that’s the only card Russia has left to play to stop Ukraine from winning: either get the West to pull the plug or Russia does it by nuking Ukraine. I saw Gen. Ben Hodges mention a recent statement by SecState Rubio about not wanting the Ukraine situation to “escalate” which we know is Trump Admin code for Russia must not lose. The cowboy pic of Trump and Putin is too on the nose.
If you follow detailed reports about the period before the Russian invasion a number of points come into focus. The United States invited key Ukrainian officials to Washington and shared intelligence with them on Russian preparations to invade Ukraine. Of course, the French and Germans told President Zelenskyy that no invasion would take place because Putin had assured them. Does anyone seriously believe that Zelenskyy credited Macron and Scholz over American generals who shared actual intelligence? No. Zelenskyy knew the German social democrat was a false ally and he could not have taken Macron seriously. (Since when did Macron understand the nature of Vladimir Putin?)
General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, gave the Ukrainians no choice but to believe him. And, having read more on the subject during the last two weeks, I am sure they believed his intelligence. The only problem was that Milley was condescending and insulting. He assumed the Ukrainians would lose the war, and that once they saw this information they would make preparations to flee the country with their families. This offended the Ukrainians.
If you recall, Biden’s first message to President Zelenskyy was to offer him exile in the United States. As we know, Zelenskyy refused. The Ukrainians were playing their own game, and they were determined to stay and fight. In fact, the lead Ukrainian general said to Milley, “You do not understand my position. This is a powerful thing. People with this attitude are difficult to defeat. And let us be clear: The Ukrainian situation was almost hopeless. It was a kind of miracle they survived the initial onslaught. The fact that Ukraine prepared a trap is not to say they controlled the situation. As Milley said to the top Ukrainian general later, “You are very lucky.”
Why were they lucky? Before the invasion, General Milley told Zelenskyy’s top officials that Russia was poised to launch a massive, full-scale invasion. He assessed that Kiev would likely fall in the early days of the invasion and shared concerns regarding the devastating human cost, directly asking his Ukrainian counterpart how he planned to secure his family. Please note this, because it is very important. Milley was not being constructive at this point, but offering a way out for Ukrainian leaders. (Never mind the people they would leave behind.) The Ukrainian leadership had no intention of fleeing.
Zelenskyy had access to all this information, but he publicly presented a different face and refused to mobilize for very solid reasons. If he had mobilized the Russians would have immediately invaded when Ukrain’s standing forces were not in the best positions, and Russia would have blamed Ukraine for starting the war by mobilizing. Since Russia would have preempted any open Ukrainian mobilization the Ukrainians had to be careful and not show their hand. Zelenskyy had to maintain a public position of affirming peace. He had to play the lamb before the slaughter while his generals moved the country’s air defense batteries into hidden positions. This is what saved Kiev and the country, above all.
Imminent Threat Warnings from Milley and other U.S. officials warned that Russia could attack with minimal warning, citing a historic military buildup along Ukraine’s borders. Intelligence Estimates given in closed-door briefings projected that a full-scale assault could result in the fall of the Ukrainian capital of Kiev within 72 hours. Milley warned that urban combat in a conflict of this scale would be “horrific,” resulting in devastating casualties for both troops and civilians. In a conversation shortly before the invasion, a personal exchange occurred where Milley deviated from military operations to ask Ukrainian General Valeriy Zaluzhny where his family would be during the anticipated attack. Zaluzhny responded that his wife and children would stay in Kiev and that they would “fight and die in Kyiv, if necessary.” This statement impressed Milley that the Ukrainians were not going to flee. It was this determination that made the defense of Ukraine possible against terrible odds.
To answer your question: Zelenskyy did not bait the Russians into invading. The Russians were going to invade no matter what he did. Zelenskyy acted so as to hide essential preparations. Mobilization was not an immediately concern because the Russian advantage would be air superiority and rapid movement along roads. Therefore, the positioning of existing forces is what mattered most. Reserves could be safely mobilize if they could slow the Russian advance. If the Ukrainians could damage the Russian air force, as well, the superiority of defense over offense would assert itself in the days that followed; and this is exactly what happened.
Of course, the Russian invasion had to rely on roads because the ground was not fully frozen, and this greatly helped the Ukrainians because they only had to defend the paved roads, allowing for Ukrainian ambushes. Where the Ukrainians were surprised was in the south, where SBU officials turned traitor and opened the way for Russian forces to cross the lower Dnepro river and strike toward Odessa with their pincer. This was the area of greatest success for the Russians. The Ukrianian top general later said that the Russians fell into the ambushes and were repulsed where SBU traitors did not create confusion in local forces. Of course, the Ukrainians did not make the south their highest priority because they did not have to forces to defend everywhere. They had Milley’s intelligence about Kiev and were focused on saving their capital city. If the Russians had not advanced with such lack of caution, they probably would have won in the first days. The best of the Russian forces, however, were wiped out and the combat effectiveness of the Russian forces never recovered.
In modern war the firepower of the weapons is so great that the attacker is at a disadvantage as he advances into those weapons. Therefore, the attacker must always flank and outnumber the defender. The attacker must also control the air. The Russians failed to do this because their flanking required airpower and surprise. They lost both advantages in the first week. Their advance was broken up and they had to retreat from Kiev. The battle for the south unfolded more gradually as the Ukrainians lost a lot of ground there. Zelenskyy could not have been uninformed about the strategy used to defeat the Russians and his one statement to the generals was, “How can I help?” This statement has been attested to by many who participated in the early defense. Zelenskyy did not try to play the military strategist. He is an actor and he played his part. He helped by using his skills. And the Russians were fooled even as he turned the tables on them.
Thank you, that was so informative!! I would never have thought that delaying mobilization in the face of an imminent invasion would be more effective than attempting a rapid mobilization, but your explanation makes sense. If the Russians were going to invade no matter what, then the best play would be to fool them into being sloppy and overconfident. It also figures that Ukraine did not have enough resources to control both Kyiv and the south, so obviously they had to focus on the capital. That explains quite a few things.
We have to remember that Ukraine was already partially mobilized and fighting in Donbas, so they were not without a standing front line.
Laura raises some good points. The whole invasion of the South of Ukraine was preventable. 20% of Ukraine territory was invaded from South in the first few days. The demining took place a month before the war. Whoever initiated or permitted it is guilty of treason. I wonder why Zelenskiy is quiet about it. He can initiate any investigation he wants, unless he is the guilty one. It was not a failure of Ukrainian intelligence. They were deliberately ignored.
The Russian invasion was actually planned by the FSB, not the GRU or General Staff. There are two reasons for this: Ukraine is not considered a foreign state, but an integral party of the Soviet Union. Therefore, the GRU was not to develop agents there. The second reason was that the FSB had agents within the SBU, especially in the south. Many FSB officers were working for Russia in the south and they sabotaged the Ukrainian defense. Ukrainian military intelligence complained bitterly about this and thought the entire SBU should be eradicated as an organization full of Russian spies. There has been, throughout the war, a cleaning house within the SBU. It has been slow and painful. No state is without traitors. Please note that General Benedict Arnold, a top American general of the Revolutionary War became a British spy. This is something that happens more than we would like to believe. Yet, military actions are such that spies cannot always bring victory.
I haven’t followed Syrskiy’s decisions as Commander-in-Chief, but surely he can’t be that much of a Soviet stick-in-the-mud given how much Ukrainian drone capability has progressed under his leadership. It’s in stark contrast to how the Russians are completely wasting their drones so there’s that.
These bloggers and makers of opinion in various outlets, whose tendency is to slander certain officials because of their own pet theories, need to be treated with great skepticism. One should use many different sources and look deeper into the loyalty of Ukrainian generals like Syrskyi who win major battles. General Oleksandr Syrskyi is presently the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, having assumed his role in February 2024. Before that he was the commander of Ukraine’s land forces. He is famous for his operational finesse. It was his skill, in the Battle of Kiev, that won that battle. Then there was his brilliant Kharkiv Counteroffensive. Anyone who says this guy is a traitor has been listening to a very distorted view of events. This fellow has hurt the Russians very badly.
I should add that it is not some evil conspiracy that Syrskyi was born in 1965, under the Soviet Union. This does not make him “Soviet.” He was born in the Vladimir region of the Russian Republic of the USSR. He moved to Ukraine as a teenager in 1980 when his father was transferred to Kharkiv. He graduated with honors from the Moscow Higher Military Command School in 1986. He served in the artillery corps until the USSR was dissolved in 1991. Syrskyi had a choice in 1992 to go with the Russian Army or go into the Ukrainian Army. He chose Ukraine, completing advanced degrees at the National Defense Academy of Ukraine with honors. By 2013 he was a major general and spearheaded Ukraine’s military cooperation and integration talks with NATO. During the Donbas campaign, when Russia invaded eastern Ukraine in 2014, he rose to become the head of the entire defensive operation in Donbas and was promoted to commander of the Ukrainian ground forces in 2019. Like General U.S. Grant, he had to fight an attrition war during the battle of Bakhmut for which he was criticized as a “butcher.” But this is not a correct characterization of his leadership. All generals are confronted with such situations, and sometimes it is tactically unavoidable in a long war. Syrskyi’s greatness as a commander is without dispute. He is a rare talent and Ukraine has been lucky to have him. I write this as someone who has been reading military history and studying strategy for many years. This guy is not some fraud.
Thank you, Jeff for a thoroughly researched answer. It will take time for me to go through all of this information to form an intelligent and informed answer.
There is a biography of Zelenskyy that covers the first year of the war and the background to the war which I recently read. It is titled “The Showman,” written by Simon Shuster. He lived in the bunker complex with government leaders in the early war. He was given access to all the leading personalities. He wrote critically of Zekenskyy’s mistakes, taking a balanced approach. I do not know if he is papering over Zekenskyy’s faults, though I think he is honest and is considered highly credible. An attempt at objectivity is always a plus.
Their main plans are to continue their communist infiltration and subversion, as much as possible, so that they don’t have to fight any nuclear wars, or rather, as the communists are cowards, they don’t want to rely on their own people as the level of anticommunist “perversion” of their own people (in their mind) is already higher than they would like it to be…which means that the communist propaganda doesn’t work that well after all…and because of the advancement of technology and communications it is much harder for the communist criminals to keep their own slaves on the strict and very tight leash – but they don’t have any moral restraint to evaporate half of the planet if necessary, when they are faced with the facts that nothing will work as well as a nuclear attack against the enemy, the US etc. – and one day they will do it regardless what their false promises are.
The alleged Krasnov is at it and involved.
On top of this there was a newsflash that they are trying to make plans to build an underwater tunnel from Russia into Alaska, don’t know whether this is true, but if Trump is going ahead with such plans that would be yet another point of his treason as it is already more and more visible that he is not anticommunist nor in any way opposed to the communist cause, but in all out ideological consent based on his deeds for Moscow and now Beijing.
It is hard to predict how it will play out, but that they will one day do it is based on their atheistic diabolical fanaticism and hatred of all who stand in their way…these are truly diabolically possessed criminal monsters and they will stop at nothing.
I hope this tunnel is never built.
Thankfully it looks like the Trump-Putin Bridge never got past the vodka-fueled daydream stage. I don’t see more recent news about it.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/10/24/heres-why-plans-for-a-tunnel-between-russia-and-alaska-are-insane-a90919
This is a crazy scheme and it will never be built. I do not take it seriously.
jeffrey nyquist sorry for my translation and that I use google translate do you think the Russian elite realizes that they are weak and they to some extent fear China because if they fall China could occupy Russia or Russia could become a Chinese satellite Do you think that behind the supposed friendship between them there is deep distrust between them? Between the two, which do you think would be more dominant in a hypothetical victory against the USA?
They do not fear China. A defector I know laughed out loud when someone suggested that China had designs on Russian territory.
Jeffrey nyquist por favor leia o novo testo de John mosier e nos de sua opinião ele parece ser um grande autor https://mosier.substack.com/p/failed-narratives-inconvenient-facts
John has written one of his insightful pieces again, full of a common sense. He writes with a clarity that brushes away the prevailing cobwebs of the mind. You have to read a lot of history before it begins to come into focus.
Jeffrey Nyquist please read John Mosier’s new text and give us your opinion he seems to be a great author https://mosier.substack.com/p/failed-narratives-inconvenient-facts
I believe John to be the single most profound military analyst of our time. Nobody is perfect, but he had the imagination and common sense to see what is unfolding.
Jeff, have you read about the new Iran deal that supposedly will fully reopen of the Strait of Hormuz? It’s being reported as the real deal, unlike all the other 30+ times when Trump announced that an agreement had been reached. But it sounds like it’s more a framework than a final deal, with important details like the future of Iran’s nuclear program to be hashed out later. I wonder what the US had to give up for Iran to agree to talks. Also, if the whole point of the Iran war was to get Iran to agree to a deal, then Trump should have just kept the JCPOA in place and renegotiated the points he didn’t like. It would have saved the US military a lot of money. I wonder what the new excuse for pulling out of Europe will be now.
Can you also comment on how the possible end to the Iran conflict ties in to Lude’s comment that “China is switching their focus to the Iran battle.” On the face of it, an end to the Iran War and the reopening of the Strait goes against China’s desire to keep the US distracted by long-running wars in Europe and the Middle East, and I don’t see how it helps in toppling the US dollar system. Also it doesn’t look like the US even wants to be in Europe, much less help out in case of a war with Russia, what with the scheduled pull-out of military assets from eastern NATO countries. Of course much depends on what the final agreement with Iran actually says. But how can China benefit from it?
I am skeptical of this alleged peace deal with Iran. There have been contradictory statements from IRCG officials and others suggesting the deal is likely to fall through. Trump has lied about having a deal so many times, and he has misrepresented the situation so brazenly, I do not trust anything he says. Trump is allowing America’s allies to be damaged by the closing of the Strait. He sits on his hands and dithers. Why? This is an urgent situation which must be solved at the earliest moment. We should be mobilizing troops. But since we started the war, and Trump acted without the consent of Congress, he dares not mobilize. Yet he must do so, given what it at stake. Waiting and dithering plays into the Chinese strategy, to be sure, and Trump appears to be the facilitator of that strategy. Lude was very clear in saying that China did not want a peace deal in the Persian Gulf because China was getting all its oil needs met. The situation serves to pin down American forces in yet another region while China prepares to put military pressure on Japan. Lude also said the Chinese want Russia to attack the Baltic States. This is obvious, I think. Lude gave no timetable for a future Chinese attack because everything depends on how the situation develops. We must remember that the left is going to win the elections in the fall, though the Chinese would prefer a civil war in America rather than an election. For this to happen you need a general financial collapse and an unprecedented cut-off of energy supplies to American cities. The closing of the Strait could result in real economic distress by the time we get to October. It is of the highest importance for the strait to remain closed. It would be bad strategy if the Iranians opened it and the crisis ended. The political reality for Trump is that the Washington Treaty will be supported by both parties in the end. Trump’s attempt to abandon Europe is not likely to work. First, there are grounds to impeach him. Second, he unpopularity is rising by the day. He will be the most hated president when this is over. Our strategy problem, and Trump’s animus against NATO, can only play out in an atmosphere of domestic crisis. The closing of the strait helps to create that crisis and I think Trump intuitively knows this. But I do not believe Trump can pull off a victory for himself. He is too lazy and too unfocused. In other words, he is not going to get what he wants. However, he can create a terrible mess. He has created a mess!
Yes, you’re right. The alleged Iran deal came out of the blue. How could a serious agreement be reached when for the past few weeks Trump has been more concerned with putting his brand on America’s 250th birthday bash than solving the Iran crisis. I’m thinking back to how during Covid the Chinese used all their money and influence to drag out the lockdowns and disproportionate reponse for as long as possible. Of course, they would use all their cards to do the same with the Iran crisis given how well-positioned they are to exploit it.
“Our strategy problem, and Trump’s animus against NATO, can only play out in an atmosphere of domestic crisis. The closing of the strait helps to create that crisis and I think Trump intuitively knows this.”
Makes you wonder whose side Trump is on, and why he jumped at the chance to start a full-blown war with Iran. He has a long record of making negative comments about Iran’s leadership and their nuclear program, and rightly so, but I’m skeptical of that being the sole or main reason that he started this particular war. I think there was some Russian or Chinese influence behind the scenes.
Trump did not want to attack Iran a year ago, during the 12-Day War. He forced Israel to stop the bombing then. It was a sensible decision. So why did he go in with Israel and attack so hard at the end of February? I think Anthony Scaramucci had the right answer. Scaramucci said that Trump went in to get the Epstein files off the front pages. I think Scaramucci is right. Trump was in a fearfully bad position with the Epstein files. Attacking Iran was a wonderful diversion. Trump is very cynical.
A Tale of 2 Revolutions.
It was the Best of Times; It was the Worst of Times.
The TRUTH Be TOLD: A Tale of 2 Revolutions.
1. The Chinese Communist Revolution.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57TTRylUQaU
2. The American Revolution.