The assertion that nuclear war will not be a continuation of politics is completely fallacious.Colonel General Makhmut Gareev
We have several disturbing data points emerging in connection with the Ukraine War.
Point 1: On 23 September Polish teachers in Warsaw were asked to hand out iodine anti-radiation pills to students in case of emergency. In connection with this, the Polish Interior Ministry admitted that potassium iodide pills had been sent to regional fire departments after “media reports of fighting near the Zaprozhye Nuclear Power Plant” in southern Ukraine. Yet, the threat to the power plant has been alleged for months. Why send out these pills now?
Point 2: Pharmacies in Finland, Luxembourg and Norway are selling out of their supplies of iodine and potassium iodide. The pills are used to prevent the thyroid from absorbing radioactive iodine or cesium 137, a byproduct of fission which is readily absorbed by the thyroid. Europe is increasingly, and perhaps sensibly, afraid Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Point 3: The Polish Foreign Ministry recommended Polish citizens leave Belarus in March. In September the warning was issued again. Then, on October 10, the Polish government issued a further warning: “We recommend that Polish citizens staying on the territory of the Republic of Belarus leave its territory with available commercial and private means.” In the last several weeks these warnings have grown in frequency and urgency. Why?
Point 4: Yesterday, October 11, Russian troops started entering Belarus. The Russians have also been preparing for some kind of military move into Belarus for many weeks if not months, indicating a renewed offensive against Kiev.
Point 5: Russia has not committed its air force even as its artillery arm is no longer as effective as it was, due to the HIMARS taking out Russian ammunition depots. In order to deliver the necessary firepower Russia must now turn to its air force. The question for Russia is — how to protect forward air deployments from HIMARS attacks?
Point 6: Russia clearly intends to renew its offensive on a grand scale — from the north and south. Given the state of the Russian army, its training and doctrine, logistical limitations and the strength of the Ukrainian defense, the Russian Army could only be successful if supported by thermobaric or nuclear warheads. And only the mass use of these type of munitions would bring victory for Russia.
Point 7: If we watch Ukrainian President V. Zelenskiy’s recent comments about nuclear weapons, and his demeanor during his interview with the BBC on Friday, I am inclined to believe Zelenskiy possesses disturbing intelligence on Russian intentions he cannot share. After his Australia speech last week, during Q and A, he stated that the West should not sit and wait for nuclear strikes, but should react preventively, or that such a preventive policy should be discussed. This comment is telling, for it shows that the Ukrainian president is preoccupied with the thought that Russia is preparing nuclear strikes on his country. Follow this with what he said to the BBC, trying to walk back his comments. Clearly, there are things Zelenskiy cannot talk about. And he actually says that such talk is, in itself, “dangerous.” One may read in Zelenskiy’s face the seriousness of the present situation.
Final point: As far as we know, Russia has not moved any tactical nuclear weapons forward. And this would be ill-advised because of the HIMARS. The usual method for delivering nuclear attacks by artillery is now problematic for Russia. Nuclear or thermobaric warheads, placed in forward stockpiles, could be pre-emptively destroyed by Ukrainian rockets. What, then, would the Russian solution be? (1) missile delivery and (2) rapid forward deployment of air units to deliver strikes.
Here is the link to Tommy’s Podcast interview:
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