It doesn’t surprise me at all that the Russians are concerned about [the] Kerch bridge. It’s incredibly important to them.

General Philip Breedlove

According to former supreme allied commander for Europe, Philip Breedlove, commenting last July, the Russians are “very worried about Ukraine launching an attack on the bridge.” And this morning, 8 October 2022, the day immediately following Vladimir Putin’s birthday, the bridge was attacked (supposedly by a truck bomb).

Breedlove made an additional comment: “There are discussions about how the West can respond if this happens. Several people I have spoken to say ‘dropping’ Kerch bridge would be a huge blow to Russia. Kerch bridge is a legitimate target.” Breelove also said, “Russia has invaded Ukraine and has launched attacks not just from inside Ukraine but also from Russia, Belarus, Crimea and the Black Sea, and have killed tens of thousands of people.”

In other words, Russia has it coming. But is such an attack strategically wise? Does it open the way to Russian nuclear escalation? Russian President V. Putin has said he would use “all the means at our disposal” to defend Russia’s conquests in Ukraine. The Russian leadership has also warned of dire consequences if the Kerch Strait bridge came under attack.

Posted 23 hours ago, prior to the bridge attack, a BBC interviewer asked V. Zelensky, “Mr. President, the Russians are accusing you of saying that you want the West to start preemptive — perhaps nuclear — strikes on Russia. Do you? Is that what you’ve been saying?”

Zelensky wagged his finger grimly, answering in English, “They begin to prepare their society. That is very dangerous. They are not ready to use it, but they begin to communicate….”

The interviewer interrupted the Ukrainian president: “What? You mean prepare society for using a nuclear weapons?”

Zelensky immediately responded, “You know, it’s — they don’t know if they will use or they will not use. I think it is dangerous even to speak about it. I said, ‘You have to … prevent kicks, not attacks,'” correcting the translation of his recent remarks to an Australian group this past week. “We are not terrorists, and we do not fight on another [country’s] territory. Even our attitude from our society — attitude to Russians after this — after all this invasion, after this eight years [of] war, eight years of bloody tragedy — even after this, [our] attitude to them, to [their] society, [is that] we are not ready to kill people like Russians do….”

Zelensky then restated his thesis: “I would like to say, that it is necessary to act, and I will return to pre-emptive sanctions again. It is necessary to act now. There is no need to think about the risks that will arise later. I agree that this is Armageddon, it’s a risk for the whole planet. But still, why do we have to think about whether it will happen or not, if Russia will take this step?”

As a marked man, facing death at Russian hands, Zelensky has decided to make a stand. If he does this, why should the world blink? The world is more powerful, and safer, than Zelensky. Therefore, he does not reflect on the West’s longstanding role as totalitarian collaborator. In fact, the West has lied to itself about the long-term consequences of its collaboration. And now Zelensky’s country is fighting for its independence from Moscow. Like Patrick Henry at the outset of the American Revolution, Zelensky is thinking of “liberty or death.” His country’s liberty is what matters. Death is not a problem worth thinking about.

When the BBC interviewer asked whether Zelensky thinks Putin is capable of launching a nuclear attack, the Ukrainian president replied, “If I say that he can use them, then this can cause panic in many countries, including Ukraine. All that Putin is afraid of … is his own community, his people, because only these people can remove him now, and take power away from him, and hand it to someone else….”

Asked if Putin will survive defeat, Zelensky said, “I don’t care.”

These answers were given in advance of the attack on the Kerch bridge. It is strange to think the Ukrainians were behind the attack. It is an escalation. Nobody can deny it is an escalation, even as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has accused President Zelensky of urging the West “to start another world war.”

As of this writing, an advisor to President Zelensky named Mikhail Podoliak has said the bridge attack is “the beginning.” Commenting in English on Twitter, he added, “Everything illegal must be destroyed, everything stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything occupied by Russia must be expelled.” In August Podoliak told The Guardian newspaper that the bridge was “an illegal construction and the main gateway to supply the Russian army in Crimea” and that “such objects should be destroyed.”

(For those with short memories, Crimea was Ukrainian territory invaded and annexed by Russia in 2014.)

In terms of the strategic sense of things, a number of general questions remain. Did a truck bomb actually damage the bridge, or is there another explanation? Are Putin’s minions turning against him, or is this itself a deception? Why do most experts believe Russia is out of men and weapons? (Something I do not understand.) Why is China preparing for war against the United States, as reported by Mr. Wang of Lude Media?

Watch Russia’s reaction over the next few hours and days. Watch closely.

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297 thoughts on “The Kerch Strait Bridge Attack”

  1. Here’s a question I have. Those 700k+ Russian men “fleeing” Russia to avoid military conscription. Are they all truly fleeing, or are they saboteurs or soon-to-be guerrillas, spreading out to other countries in preparation for larger war?

    I’ve been wondering about that, and then this morning there are reports of railroad and radio station sabatoge in northern Germany.

      1. Will they be part of a Russian “response” to the destruction of the bridge. Maybe Russia did it ho set up a “retaliation”. Maybe many of those men are actually getting in place for said retaliation.

      5. And speaking of sabotage…

        “A report emerged in September that said Chinese authorities have opened 110 police service centers outside of mainland China—including one in New York City—that repatriate Chinese people using coercion, according to a security policy expert, but which also may be used for sabotage or espionage.

        Frank Gaffney, the executive chairman at the Washington-based Center for Security Policy, said that as part of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) global transnational repression those service centers can be tools to conduct espionage and sabotage work.

        “The Chinese are not simply forcing people to go back to China and stand trial, but they may be giving them directions to do other things,” such as espionage, recruitment, influence operations, sabotage, or subversion, Gaffney told the “China in Focus” program on NTD news.”

      1. “But some may be Russian agents or [be] saboteurs”– this is what I worry about now that Biden has made such a short-sighted, and an incredibly foolhardy, decision to admit Russian conscription-dodgers into the U.S. as ‘asylum seekers’, which I don’t think that they would qualify for anyway. The national security ‘implications’ of a move like that are potentially massive.

        https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/09/27/white-house-offers-asylum-to-russians-fleeing-the-mobilization/

      2. I read an article either late last year, or earlier this year, stating that there had been a large increase in Russians caught crossing the border.

      3. So it is possible many thousands of them are agents who now are easily coming to Finland, Poland and other countries. The flight would be part of the mobilization plans, positioning agents in the western territories?

    3. I honestly don’t believe any of this Russian news. At least I don’t believe the broader strokes. Yes, some of it could be true, but why does Russia want us to believe it? Their first rule is deception.

      So why is their KGB media preaching doom and gloom and how they’re losing? Why do they want to project an image of weakness? We’re supposed to believe this was their entire plan? Invade Ukraine and if it doesn’t work, that’s it?

      No, as Jeff has said, this is part of a larger sequence. Russia’s attacks have come after he’s met with Xi. The Communists believe the *larger* conditions are right, i.e. military balance of power between the West and the East, nuclear balance, missile balance, economic balance, Communist influence. And those conditions don’t just disappear or change. They’re long-term conditions that take a long time to change and a long time to fix.

      Intercepted communications say that Russian forces were given inadequate gear, no jets, etc.. to me, this looks like a fake war. A pretext to begin this slow, simmering conflict that is slowly building and building, so that when it finally does cross to nuclear warfare, it seems logical and not like a preplanned attack. The US was blamed for the pipeline attack and also blamed for the bridge attack. I think Russia is bombing themselves the same way they bombed their own apartment buildings. And it is very dangerous. They are setting the stage to bomb American assets.

      Here are 2 tweets:

      https://twitter.com/the_real_fly/status/1578900785639092224

      https://twitter.com/timonpoint/status/1578910623773048832

      ——-

      One shows the steady buildup for a justification of attacks on US soil. They’ve already planned this, all of this is just justification.

      The other shows the pathetic traitorous blaming of the US by Americans, or that could be foreign intelligence propaganda account. Either way, many Americans will blame the US if/when the strike happens.

      I do not believe Russia is weak. I believe they are bombing their own infrastructure right now. Which should worry you. Because it means they’ll be bombing ours soon. Because they’re setting the justification for “revenge”. I still think it’s happening this winter. We saw the naval formation off Alaska. The 12 plane formation from North Korea. Now the missiles from North Korea. They’re all working together. The Communist alliance is working a sequence as Jeff was saying. There is some much larger plan and timeline at work. Yes, Russia probably wanted to conquer Ukraine, but do you really think that was the extent of their plan? These are Communists – everything is deception and misdirection. I will not believe they are losing until I see actual concrete evidence that Russia or Putin is actually in some sort of disarray.

      1. It is a worrying situation. What worries me most is the behavior of Kazakhstan’s communist dictator. Why would he openly betray Moscow? Who is going to help him if Russia invaded his country? It makes no sense. He thumbs his nose at Putin? Now I know somebody is putting me on.

      3. Well, it depends on how bad the situation in Russia is. As Suvorov has said in his lectures, when someone criticizes him for saying the Russian military is both weak and strong. He smiles and says, both are true.

    4. Since the beginning of the ongoing Covid Live Exercise, it’s been most difficult to know who to trust of Americans, in the United States. So many civilians yelling at other citizens to wear a mask. So many civil servants, pushing people to the the mRNA lethal injections. The fake Covid bio-terror attack, has destroyed trust in the medical establishment. I’m reluctant to get a shot of novacaine from the dentist, out of apprehension that it might be a Covid shot. At Nuremberg, ‘just following orders,’ was a hanging offense. There is no way we can trust refugees or determine if they are trustworthy or not, even if they are legal immigrants from a free, Western country.

      Soon, there will be Nuremberg Tribunals 2.0, conducted at Common Law, in local communities. Political leaders, medical personnel, and security guards who ordered civilians to wear masks, will be charged with infringement of, The Bill Of Rights, and genocide. A very, merry Ceaușescu Chiristmas, to them all.

    5. They are fleeing but those being drafted are not being drafted for service in ukraine

  3. The last recent weeks have seen significant destructive attacks on Russian infrastructure assets. These acts of war have a potential to be like dumping kerosene on a fire. With upping the ante on destroying important infrastructure it also has the potential of Russia upping the ante by retaliating on the West. We live in a very fragile balance of how our society is held together with functioning infrastructure such as our communications or power supply facilities/lines/pipelines. Russia is likely calculating how, when and where they retaliate given the recent damage to the Nordstream natural gas pipeline and now this important Kerch Strait bridge. With this war going on that the United States is increasingly getting more and more involved in I think people in America and Western Europe need to get in the mindset of preparing to brace for impact. This war appears to continue to escalate. Americans and Europeans have for years had a long stretch of time of peace where the normalcy bias takes hold and things seem fine. This will very likely soon change though as events may start to have noticeable consequences that will shatter our comfort zones.

    1. It’s fair to say the Russian had this coming. But Russia, like America, has gotten a false feeling of invulnerability from its nuclear forces. Nobody is invulnerable.

    2. “Why do most experts believe Russia is out of men and weapons? (Something I do not understand.)”

      Russia isn’t out of men. It’s out of experienced professional soldiers. It probably isn’t out of weapons, just the more modern stockpiles. We are watching the former Soviet military get fed through a wood chipper and it is glorious! What an incredible blunder on Putin’s part.

      1. Yes, I understand that he lacks highly trained personnel. But experts are saying he is having trouble fielding new formations of reservists — people who have been in his army. There are millions who have served over the last thirty years.

      2. As I had commented on a previous post on this site, “21st century Russia seems to operate their military the way that 18th/19th century Great Britain did, at least in regards to recruitment methods”.

    3. Perhaps. The problem for Russia is they no longer have much of a military. The country has been hollowed out from corruption, and that is why so much of the stored equipment is not serviceable. Putin has tried to buy winter uniforms and body armor abroad, and he got shot down. The troops don’t have decent food, decent clothing, and much of what they have, they have had to buy themselves, or decent weapons. Russia has lost much of its heavy equipment and best troops in Ukraine.

      I’d say the biggest victim of normalcy boas has been sad Vlad Putin. I doubt he likes his birthday present.

  4. Thanks, Jeff. Russia says it was most likely a fertilizer-laden truck bomb. And check this out:

    “A Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post that the country’s special services were behind the attack, though Kyiv stopped short of saying it was responsible — even as top officials taunted Moscow.”

    Taunting a “bear” is never a good idea.

      1. Agreed, but taunting is still a bad idea. It’s like they WANT Russia to use a tactical nuke so NATO will get directly involved.

      2. It’s very strange. I cannot get out my mind Zelensky’s demeanor in that BBC interview. It was not that of a person who was about to take down a bridge. It was the presentation of someone who accepts his death as a forgone conclusion. Or something like that.

      3. Western media and Ukraine are spreading rumors that Russia is willing to use nuclear weapons. Probably themselves considering a false-flag as a way to get more countries on the board with sanctions. Which will fail because everyone outside America knows what is going on. The economic warfare has failed spectacularly to this point. On the spring, pedoJoeBiden was talking about crashing Ruble which is now stronger than it has been for years. Russia is preparing a final blow in November. Nothing can reverse the outcome of this war.

  5. As an SF friend of mine said…”things are getting really interesting”. We are witnessing the beginning of World War III.

    1. I have little faith in changing the course of this country from its current infiltrated state courtesy decades of Godless Marxists .

      Read “The Fate of Empires”. We are repeating the path of Ancient Rome. Better yet, the Bible makes no mention of our beloved US of A via the prophets of old, however it does mention Gog and Magog.

      As Sir John Glubb wrote, the US has followed the standard pattern…pioneers of commerce, affluence, intellectualism and…decadence.
      “Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease, resulting from too long a period of wealth and power, producing cynicism, decline of religion, pessimism and frivolity.”

      1. To be fair, other than Israel, none of the nations we know of today are even mentioned in the Bible either, and even Israel was literally foretold by Jesus to be destroyed by the Romans due to them not repenting over their crucifying him earlier.

      2. Tarshish with all the young lions thereof = the Anglo nations, in Ezekiel 38:13.

  7. What I don’t understand is how a Ukrainian truck bomb could first get into Russia, then go through Russian security to get onto the Kerch bridge, all without getting detected. Also, it seems like doing things the hard way. It seems like there might be something else here that we are missing.

      1. Could some on the Russian side be helping the Ukrainians ? Perhaps they are on board with Russian thinking. But not comfortable fighting Ukrainians. And may disagree with Russia,s immoral war methods. What do you think Jeff ?

      2. I’ve gone through the video several times and it appears the explosion is behind the truck that was thought to carry explosives. The video shows the truck is on the grade up to the elevation needed to cross the bridge over the ship channel, and the damage is behind that. I don’t know that the Ukrainians have a missile with the range needed to reach the bridge. If they did, I would want more than one hit, and the most important hit would be the rail bridge. While the heat has rendered the rail bridge steel unusable, it is the span that is most easily repaired. I read one estimate that the bridge would reopen on 31 October. Whether the estimate is real, or just blowing smoke, I haven’t a clue.

      4. Are Ukrainians known for being suicide bombers? Is there a possibility a bomb was placed under the bridge? It looks like the tanker cars on the railway caught fire, too. And the Railway was above the road for vehicles. It looks from the video the bomb exploded just as the road went up.

  8. I watched the videos posted over at Ukraine Today. The first time through I thought is was a truck that exploded. But, the truck that seems to explode is already climbing the arch over the ship channel and the damage is well behind that. After the second run through, I don’t think it was a truck that exploded, because the explosion seems to be nearer than the truck is.

    Were it a missile, I think it was a righteous strike. It is a legit military target. I would not call it an escalation, but gitzwerg in the kremlin will whine about it and one of the deputies in the Duma has said it is a declaration of war without rules. Frankly, they should have thought about the rules much earlier. Ukraine has tried to restrict its strikes to military targets. Russia has not only made no effort to do so, it has purposely targeted civilian targets.

    will Putin try to increase the intensity of the war? Yes, and he trying as I write. Will it succeed? Doubtful, as Russia has hollowed itself out with corruption, corruption of which Putin is the pinnacle.

    1. > “Ukraine has tried to restrict its strikes to military targets”

      Lol. Ukraine has been shelling civilians in Donetsk for 8 years. There is a video of Zelensky begging Azov Nazis to stop doing it while they were ridiculing him.

      1. You’ve swallowed a ton of lies, commie boy. But, you’ve already swallowed a ton of lies about communism, so why should anyone be surprised you lie about Ukraine?

  9. Mr Nyquist, an article or two ago, I believe you said it seemed like Putin would need 3 months to be readied for a nuclear war. Do you still feel that way? If so, when did that 3 month clock start– with the conscription of their civilian men? Or perhaps now you feel all bets are off, with any timetable, from either side?

  10. I HATE TO TOOT MY HORN, I CALLED JEFF EARLY THIS MORNING JUST AFTER 9:00 A.M., ABOUT THE KERCH BRIDGE ATTACK. TO SAY HE WAS SURPRISED BY WHAT I TOLD HIM WOULD IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. (HE DID NOT KNOW YET THAT ABOUT THE BRIDGE BOMBING).

    MEANWHILE MORE INFO HAS COME OUT SINCE, WITH SPECULATION ABOUT THE VIDEO FROM A SECURITY CAMERA ON THE BRIDGE RECORDING A SPLIT SECOND BEFORE THE EXPLOSION HAS LED TO AN ALTERNATIVE THEORY:

    Video shows mystery ‘wave’ under Crimea bridge just before it was blown to smithereens: Speculation grows that Ukraine used a boat or explosive-laden drone – despite Russian claims of truck bomb – as attack threatens Putin’s supply lines

    A huge explosion has hit the only bridge between Crimea and Russia, a crucial supply line for Putin’s forces
    Footage appears to show a truck exploding on the road section of the bridge and sabotage is suspected
    Russian officials have claimed a truck was searched on the bridge which then triggered the explosion
    However, a video appears to show a wave under the bridge which some think could be a bomb in the water
    Panic queues have formed at petrol stations in Crimea as officials said there was only enough fuel for 40 days
    Putin has now called for tightened security at the strategically crucial bridge, overseen by FSB secret service

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/breaking_news/article-11293851/Massive-explosion-destroys-key-bridge-linking-Crimea-Putins-Russia.html

    1. Seriously Wade? I knew at 6:30 this morning when I read ZeroHedge as I drank my coffee, but I certainly wouldn’t have called and woke anyone up to tell them. Poor Jeff! LOL!

      1. Reminds me of the scene in Independence Day where the guy at SETI answers the phone early in the morning and says, “This had better be an insanely beautiful woman.”

      2. Yes, he said if it wasn’t, he was hanging up. LOL! The blowing up of the bridge is definitely big news, but nothing that couldn’t wait a couple of hours to be told.

      4. I can understand that. Some of the news will make you lose your appetite! 🙂

    2. I don’t see a “mysterious wave” under the bridge. It simply looks like a white capped wave. I’d need to see better photography, which may not be available, to be able to make a firm call on that.

      1. The wave is reported by eye witnesses. Who says there’s a picture of it? For an engineer, you don’t seem to understand that the force of an explosion will blow ‘UP’ unless it’s contained to force it in another direction.

      2. Lanyard I’m aware of that. I am aware of why charges are tamped. I had training in military demolition and have participated in plenty of blasting work in my career. If there was something there, it isn’t shown in the photography.

    3. “I hate to toot my own horn …”

      Evidently not enough to not toot your own horn.

      1. Jeff, thanks for a little laugh, and I’m going to have to steal that one,

  11. WW4 File: Massive blast partly damages road deck of dual-span Kerch Strait Bridge connecting occupied Crimea and mainland Russia since 2018, security cams record enormous explosion, rail span unharmed; speaker of Kremlin-backed regional parliament in Simferopol accuses Ukraine of orchestrating truck bomb attack, which killed three motorists; second attack on high-profile Russian infrastructure after sabotage of Nord Stream pipelines under Baltic Sea, also follows attempt by Ukraine to walk back hysterical rant by Pres. Zelensky: “[I] once again appeal to the international community, as I did before February 24 – we need pre-emptive strikes, so that they’ll know what will happen to them if they use nukes, and not the other way around”; meanwhile Russia’s Oscar II-class sub Belgorod lurking in Barents Sea, 600-foot “special ops vessel” armed with Poseidon torpedo, “doomsday weapon” can allegedly create radioactive tsunami, obliterate coastal cities; HYPOTHESIS based on seven months of developments in Russo-Ukraine “war,” denouement of long-range Soviet strategic deception plan: radical-left Biden/”third term” Obama regime, “pro-West” Zelensky regime colluding with Kremlin to establish pretext for preemptive nuke strikes against West, in addition to depleting NATO munitions via reckless weapons transfers, bankrupting Western states via overly generous financial transfers, justifying Moscow’s open reassertion of power over Ukraine

    October 8, 2022

    source 1: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/crimea-bridge-blast-damages-key-russian-supply-route-3-dead/ar-AA12J7G1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7e97bae5be124726b7b237382260371e

    source 2: https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/zelensky-calls-for-preemptive-strike-against-russia-in-speech-to-lowy-institute/news-story/80b4cd30b1ac06298d995ce96950d744

    source 3: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-nuclear-submarine-with-apocalypse-weapon-spotted-patrolling-sea/ar-AA12J8wT

    source 4: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3588859-lithuanian-foreign-minister-all-weapon-stocks-of-allies-need-to-be-opened-for-ukrainian-army.html

    source 5: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/09/30/analysts-u-s-weapons-stockpiles-dangerously-low-levels-as-dod-sends-weapons-ukraine/

    In light of recent social media comments by Medvedev and Shoigu about “restoring the Soviet Union,” it almost seems Zelensky is goading NATO into launching preemptive strikes against Russia, which would actually provide Putin with grounds for preempting the West’s supposed intent to preempt.

    Meanwhile, checkpoints on the Kerch Strait Bridge, presumably on both the road and rail spans, are designed to PREVENT malicious actors from transporting explosives onto the bridge. In any case, Russia’s ability to transport military equipment to Crimea by rail remains unhindered.

    Just another thought. Some folks, like Tucker Carlson, allege the Biden regime sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines to hobble the Russian economy which, so far, has been mostly impervious to Western sanctions. Perhaps. Keep in mind, though, that the crypto-communist regime in Moscow has been blowing up its own stuff for decades.

    If you haven’t taken care of your own CD, don’t expect the government to do it for you. If you live in a NATO country and want to survive a strategic nuclear attack, moving away from cities and military bases is a good start. At OUTW we’ve been anticipating the current events in the “Former” Soviet Union for years, hence our decision to move to Latin America in 2021. The region has its problems but getting nuked is not one of them.
    —————————————————————————————————

  13. ‘General Armageddon’ to lead Russian forces in Ukraine:

    Sergey Surovikin, a Syria campaign veteran, will take command of all operations,citing his hardline and unorthodox approach to military operations.

    8 Oct, 2022 15:25
    ‘General Armageddon’ to lead Russian forces in Ukraine

    Sergey Surovikin, a Syria campaign veteran, will take command of all operations, the Defense Ministry said:

    https://www.rt.com/russia/564299-general-surovikin-russia-ukraine-command/

    1. He doesn’t have much to work with, frankly. He may have been ruthless in Syria, but the other Generals have been quite ruthless, and it hasn’t gotten them much as all it does it increase the hatred for Russians, and strengthen the resolve of the troops.

  14. Russian authorities scrambling to calm panic in Crimea after explosion on Kerch Bridge
    Saturday, October 8, 2022 11:00:11 AM

    https://uawire.org/russian-authorities-scrambling-to-calm-panic-in-crimea-after-explosion-on-kerch-bridge

    The authorities of the annexed Crimea make contradictory statements all morning following the explosions and destruction of the Crimean Bridge. First, the Ministry of Transport of Russia reported that the Kerch ferry crossing resumed its work and the first ferry was already being loaded, three more were preparing to leave. Later, the Russian state new agency TASS reported, citing local authorities, that the ferry would not be launched due to weather conditions.

    At the same time, the acting Minister of Transport of Crimea, Nikolai Lukashenko, said that weather conditions are suitable for the ferry service to begin. According to him, two ferries are already being prepared and several are on the way.

    Also, uncertain information comes from local authorities about whether restrictions will be imposed on the sale of fuel and groceries. At first, the local Ministry of Industry said that only up to three kilograms of groceries would be sold per person. But the adviser to the head of the Crimea, Oleg Kryuchkov, said that this information does not correspond to reality. After that, the Ministry of Industry stated that “there are no restrictions on goods, and they will not be introduced.”

    Despite this, the governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, said that restrictions would be imposed on food and gasoline. But then he changed his mind and wrote: “All restrictions on the sale of food and fuel are lifted.”

    Earlier, the news outlet Meduza published the contents of a “manual” compiled by the Russian Presidential Administration for state media, with recommendations for covering the explosions on the Crimean bridge. The news agencies are recommended to mention that the Kerch ferry crossing was launched.

    On October 8, at 6 a.m., an explosion occurred on the vehicle section of the Crimean Bridge. Russian authorities said a truck carrying explosives was blown up on the bridge. As a result, the fuel tanks of a train, which was going along the railway section of the bridge, caught fire.

    The Russian Investigative Committee opened a criminal case but did not specify under what article. The head of the parliament of the annexed Crimea said that the roadway was damaged by “Ukrainian vandals”.

    After the explosion on the bridge, Russian Railways suspended the sale of tickets for trains going to and from Crimea.
    ————————————————

  15. Estonian Foreign Minister congratulates Ukrainian Special Services on destroying Crimean bridge
    Saturday, October 8, 2022 12:00:13 PM

    https://uawire.org/estonian-foreign-minister-congratulates-ukrainian-special-forces-on-destroying-crimean-bridge

    Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu suggested that Ukraine may be behind the explosions on the Crimean bridge and congratulated the “Ukrainian special forces” on this event.

    “Estonia certainly welcomes this (the explosion on the Crimean bridge) and congratulates the Ukrainian special forces units that are probably behind this operation,” said the Estonian Foreign Minister.

    He added that the Crimean bridge has an important symbolic value for Russia, since it connects Russia and Crimea and was also an important logistics link. The bridge was also important for Russian president Vladimir Putin as a symbol that Crimea “will forever remain part of Russia”.

    Reinsalu does not rule out that the explosion of the bridge was planned for Putin’s 70th birthday.

    “I believe that this goal has been there for a very long time,” he summed up.

    On the morning of October 8, an explosion occurred on the Crimean Bridge destroying a large stretch of it.
    —————————

  16. Russian officials complain about ‘war without rules’ after explosion on Crimean Bridge
    Saturday, October 8, 2022 1:00:16 PM

    https://uawire.org/russian-officials-complain-about-war-without-rules-after-explosion-on-crimean-bridge

    Vladimir Putin’s administration has promptly sent out a “manual” to the Russian media and state news agencies on how to cover the situation with the Crimean bridge which shows that the Kremlin is trying to avoid panic among Russians. But the Russian parliament, the State Duma, seems to have other plans. A deputy from the pro-presidential United Russia party, Oleg Morozov, called the incident a declaration of “war without rules.”

    “The terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge, announced long ago, is no longer just a challenge, it is a declaration of war without rules,” Morozov said hysterically.

    A fire broke out on the Crimean bridge on the morning of October 8. According to the Anti-Terrorist Committee of the Russian Federation, a truck carrying explosives was allegedly blown up on the bridge causing seven fuel tanks of the railway train to catch fire. Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the government to establish a commission due to destruction of the bridge.

    The media later reported that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) was behind the explosions. The SBU did not confirm or deny it.
    —————————————————————-

  17. GOT THESE REMARKS THIS MORNING FROM THE EX-SOVIET DIPLOMAT WHO LIVES IN MONTREAL, QUEBEC, CANADA (WHO IS A UKRAINIAN NATIONAL BY BIRTH):

    This bridge has been a high priority target for Ukraine, and it looks like this was a suicide truck bomber who timed his attack when a fuel train was passing by. The rail-links are more important than the road bridge, and it will take time to repair.

    This is the second attack on Russia’s critical infrastructure within the past two weeks. The first being the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines.

    Needless to say the reaction on Ukraine social media is one of praise and congratulations. On Russian social media a call for revenge and to escalate the war by targeting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure that have been mostly left alone since the start of the war. The Kremlin has repeatedly warned in the past that an attack on the Kerch Bridge will force Russia to change its rules of engagement in the war against Ukraine.

    So what is next?

    I have been hearing and reading that the Russian military is not only building up its military forces and reserves in the southern part of the country (Ukraine’s counter-attack has now been stopped), but it is also building up its military forces on the border on the northern border with Ukraine (Belarus’ rail-system is now under Russian military control). You do not have to be a military genius to know that a major offensive is being prepared to be launched later this year.

    It is because of this expected military offensive that I expect even more spectacular Ukrainian attacks in the coming weeks, as well as a rush by Ukraine to further prepare its defenses for this expected offensive.
    ——————————————————-

  18. IN SOMEWHAT RELATED NUCLEAR NEWS: FOUND THIS ON A SOUTH KOREAN ENGLISH NEWS SITE OF PHOTO SCREENSHOT OF THE NORTH KOREA GOVERNMENT POST OFFICE HOMEPAGE, CELEBRATING THE RELEASE ON OCTOBER 6, OF ONE OF THREE POSTAGE STAMPS, COMMEMORATING THE PASSAGE ON SEPTEMBER 9, AUTHORIZING KIM JONG-UN TO LAUNCH PREEMPTIVE/FIRST STRIKE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS:

    N.K.’s stamps marking legalization of nuke weapons use

    https://en.yna.co.kr/view/PYH20221007007400325

    1. Such an action on Kim’s part is not at all surprising. If he does launch a nuke on a pre-emptive strike, he’s signing his death warrant.

      1. Ohengineer, I doubt it. I think Kim can fire a nuke and live and win. If he fires one nuke at south korea, then says he will launch 25 at us if we intervene, what are we gonna do? Likewise, if putin nukes ukraine, I dont think we are gonna respond w nukes.

      2. He doesn’t have that many nukes. It takes a lot to produce just one nuke. It took us several years to build up to 25. We know where he hides and that will be targeted. He won’t survive such a strike. That is why he is blowing smoke, something the Norks have specialized in since the Korean War stopped.

    1. So the Ukrainian military hired him and gave him money to buy the truck and fill it with explosives. He was willing to die for what?

      2. Not so strange. There are Muslim groups, including armed militant groups, who view Russia as their main enemy. That would include people from within Syria. So blowing up a Russian military target (the bridge is a legit military target) would be a way to attack Russia.

        Some years back, there was an interview broadcast by Al Jazeera of an Al Qaida group who claimed that Russia is their main target. I was surprised at that, as I thought the U.S. was their main target. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HDytlHGHpY

      3. This book is very helpful to understand Islamic eschatology. It is literally the flip/mirror opposite to the Biblical understanding how this age will culminate and transition. I can’t recommend this author enough: His faithfulness in the diligent study of scripture; his deep love and compassion for all Muslim people groups; but mostly his devoted love for Jesus. This book is pertinent and very informative, no matter what faith you may or may not embrace.
        https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/1935071556/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?

      5. The slow creep of Islam worldwide has definitely been going on longer than the Communists have been around. Head to head, Islam prevails.

    2. If Russia wanted to blame Ukraine for the Kerch bridge attack, why would they say it was a truck bomb as opposed to a Himars rocket attack? Saying the latter would implicitly lay some guilt at NATO’s door for providing such weapons to Ukraine. And if Ukraine was really behind the explosion, then launching rockets or drones would be easier than special forces infiltrating Crimea and loading a truck with fertilizer and then getting that truck past security checkpoints.

      Before realizing that a truck attack would have to have been a suicide bomb, I was thinking it could be the work of Ukrainian sympathizers from Crimea. Not all ethnic Ukrainians felt strongly enough to leave Crimea in 2014, but Russia’s bloody unjustified invasion this time around may have radicalized some of them to commit acts of sabotage. Something that Russia may want to exploit or even enable. But I agree that whether Ukraine was behind it or not it is very foolish to hint at any responsibility for the attack.

      If it really was a truck suicide bomb then a Muslim perpetrator, either Ukrainian or another nationality would make the most sense. If he was aided by Ukrainian special forces in some way, it may explain why Ukrainian gov’t officials are hinting they had something to do with the attack. But then again, how could the SBU have recruited and communicated with him without Russia intercepting the communications? And then there is the practical question of Ukraine physically supplying the explosives in Russia/Crimea. The fact that he was a Syrian Muslim refugee living in Russia makes it less likely that he could have been recruited by Ukraine. As for such a person a being behind the Kerch attack, I’ve heard of Syrians and other Middle Easterners fighting on both sides of this war, depending on their view of Russia. Plenty of them may have a bone to pick with Russia over its support of Assad in the Syrian war. It could be a case of Russia’s ISIS chickens coming home to roost. A Muslim suicide bomber is not totally out of place in this war given Russia’s recent history with Muslims at home and abroad. I think one of the foreign fighters sentenced by the LPR/DPR to death was Moroccan.

      And given the KGB’s long involvement with Islamic terrorism, who’s to say he wasn’t enabled by the Russian side? How could the attacker get ahold of all that fertilizer without setting off any alarm bells. Apparently the truck did not pass through X-ray control. Or it may not even be a suicide bomb at all but rather sabotage. The reason for that may be infighting between different factions of Russia’s security services. As with the attack on Dugin’s daughter, it may have been meant to send a message to someone. Knowing how the KGB & co like dates with symbolic significance, blowing the bridge 1 day after Putin’s birthday may mean something.

      ———
      Or it could just be a terrorist attack that was not enabled by either Russia or Ukraine’s governments. There have been plenty of attacks on Russian military recruitment offices lately. Ethnic minorities feel they are the hardest hit by mobilization.

      https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1574464869645963264?s=20&t=h5r3ce0PUPYADVMeMwsV7A
      9/26/22 A map of Russian drafting offices being set on fire – this began even before mobilization was announced. The map was made yesterday. I wonder how quickly it will change.
      – 54 cases of arson on military enlistment offices and administrative buildings
      – 37 before the announcement
      – 17 after the announcement

      https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/27/ethnic-minorities-hit-hardest-by-russias-mobilization-activists-say-a78879

      https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1575570319104184321?s=20&t=A2rzC7tjb9JPaIn-sLBVnQ
      9/29/22 “The head of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, has absolutely lost it with Derbent’s draft officers after they drove around with megaphones telling *every man* in the city to turn up at the conscription centre.” He said that what they did amounted to a criminal act.

      1. Laura: there are many difficulties with the official story which now grows into something more complicated. A drone or missile also makes sense but is more terrifying to Moscow because the Ukrainians have skilled engineers. The best in the USSR. Could they strike Moscow? Could Ukraine build a nuke? Did they keep nukes secretly? Is Moscow nervous? Wish I understood.

      3. There must be some Ukrainian penetration into SVR GRU FSB. Some of Putin’s purges of his top brass indicate this.

      5. The owner of the truck, I understand, was Russian. A video on telegraph purports to show the truck being inspected before going out on the bridge. The driver opened the back, but didn’t actually go into the trailer and allowed the truck to proceed.

        It is entirely possible the driver did not know what he was carrying. The manifest could have shown things that appeared to be fine, but hidden within was a large amount of explosives. Frankly, after viewing the videos several times it became clear that the explosion was behind the truck. The truck was already on the up grade to the part of the bridge over the ship channel when the explosion took place. The damage is well to the south of that point. The only other truck in the video is to the south of the explosion.

        One of two things are thought to have done the dirty deed. A missile, or a sea going drone. I doubt the drone, based on the video, as the explosion appears to have been from the top of the deck, not beneath it.

      6. The only information that we have now is that the driver was a Syrian Muslim who had become radicalized. If we latch onto any further certainties without further, concrete evidence, we become conspiracy theorists.

        This is my complaint against conspiracy theorists is that they claim truths that can’t be substantiated, in the end obfuscating the very real questions that are unanswered.

  20. Oh dear!

    “Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the biggest in Europe, has lost its last remaining external power source as a result of renewed shelling and is now relying on emergency diesel generators, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Saturday.”

  21. Russia for the Win by mid-winter. They are in a life and death struggle with the global deep state. For the globalists to survive Russia must be destroyed and the ruble must be destroyed . For the dollar to survive as global reserve currency the WEF/globalists/deep state feel they must win at all costs. Whoever can take the most punishment and keep their will to fight will be the victor.
    Ukraine has been a money laundering cesspool for over a decade now (Hunter Biden and the Big Guy are just a start)
    Once again – Russia for the Win by mid-winter. They are about to open a big can of whoop-ass. Sub zero temps and dirty water will do the heavy lifting.

    2. There is no “deep state” – just corrupt former Western democracies that will most likely be nuked by totalitarian Communist dictatorships that have been planning it for 60 years. Using as justification such simple-minded and foolish drivel as you’ve been spouting. Who would have known that when the West was on its last legs, it’s own citizenry would be blaming it for being the victim of sociopathic dictators.

    4. So, come February, what will you do when the Russians don’t win? Frankly, even with his supposed mobilization, I don’t see that getting Putin much.

  22. Russia is winning the ground war, but the West is winning the media war. Russia’s strategy, with a smaller, overall force, has been to continuously reduce the size of the opposing army until it collapses. The ebb and flow of captured and relinquished, and largely empty lands is ultimately immaterial to the Russian military leadership.

    Right now, the Russians are surprisingly quiet. Putin has even been addressing a teachers group, stressing the importance of respect for the Ukrainian language and culture. As Jeff advises, we need to be alert to a possible change in course over the next few days.

    As for China, they want our farmland to help feed their sizable population. They’re expected to arrive off of our west coast in a flotilla of fake fishing and cargo boats as our military stands down and adopts a passive stance. Sadly, we’ll all be exterminated as the only resistance will come from local militias, led by the un-vaxxed–the ones once victimized by forced separation from the U.S. military.

      1. With the incredible rapidity of their progress against an experienced NATO-proxy, defensive army in the heavily-fortified Donbas, they’ve virtually re-written the military textbooks and renewed the curriculum.

        Now, with Russian reinforcements on the horizon, the opposing remnant forces find themselves in a position not dissimilar to the Wehrmacht in WWII.

        Still, the future remains to be seen.

      2. Russia’s ground forces have performed miserably. And why insult Ukraine’s army by calling them a “proxy”? Why not call Russia a communist Chinese “proxy”? Stop reading Russian propaganda. It lowers IQ and causes blindness.

      3. Pondering, the only “military text books” Russia has rewritten, are on how *not* to fight a ground war. I know it must hurt to see your heroes as losers, but that’s what they are. The only way they can win is by using nuclear weapons.

      5. Jeff, I hate to be the one to break it to you, but Russia holds the East and South areas, DEEP, and I mean DEEP, into the former, Ukraine. The people there recently voted to join Russia, and Putin sealed the deal. All he ever said from the start was that he wanted protection for ethnic Russians. I’d say that’s about that. The war is over if Zelensky quits attacking Russians.

  23. Both sides have motives. I may even be possible the Russians let the Ukrainian’s do it, making both responsible.

  24. BRCC66 – ” … the Bible makes no mention of our beloved US of A …”

    It gets exceedingly harder for me to fathom how folks can continue to proclaim this and like outlandish statements as events in our world progress and we fail to link the identifying scriptural dots as to the who, why and where. An old preacher / historian told us once – people can only form opinions based upon the information they receive. But honestly, how open are any to anything that differs from what they WANT to hear/believe ? It seems most are quite comfortable with notions that are quite easily disproven with honest and diligent Biblical study but are reluctant (even violently so) to even consider anything that goes against their lifelong held “sacred cows” (so far so good). As Jeff stated in a comment several posts back – ” God made man in His own image and we’ve been seeking to return the favor ever since.” Infiltration and disinformation into every aspect of our society has been shown and believed to be the case by those of us who seek truth. Why would we not think that such was also the case concerning our very core beliefs in the churches ? “Blessed are those who are not offended in Me ?” Is our understanding based upon fact or emotion / desires ? We give lip service to God but simultaneously proclaim it is irrelevant to our present discussions or a solution to our problems, but I say it will soon be ALL that we want to talk about. What’s that line in the well known movie –

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMzd40i8TfA

    (written and presented not in a mocking / belittling fashion but with Christian love for Jesus and His sheep. “If you love Me, feed my sheep”)

    1. Please, let’s stay away from religious controversy. Someone is bound to be offended. There are many different interpretations offered by the differing denominations.

    2. Yes, please don’t look at the underlying spiritual conflict and only focus on the superficial manifestations of it in the world. That’s the only way we can “save” the situation. And while we’re at it, kindly desist from considering the causes of poor health and fixate exclusively on what we can do to alleviate the symptoms.

      (This is why the situation is irretrievable by human means and tyranny the like of which humanity has never known is hardwired to very soon emerge in the West).

      1. I do not find other people’s arguments over John’s Apocalypse spiritually edifying. The error of Apocalypticism can distort your view of history so that you are unable to appreciate the spiritual meanings that are really there.

      4. PS — The atheists deny God, but Nietzsche’s parable of the madman suggests that Christendom has done much worse by secretly murdering God, replacing him with a commercial puppet version who flatters their hedonistic preconceptions. Similar charges are laid to “Christendom” by Kierkegaard. Eric Voegelin interpreted the question more deeply, writing, “the life of the early Christian communities was not fixed but oscillated between the eschatological expectation of the parousia that would bring the kingdom of God, and the understanding of the church as the apocalypse of Christ in history.” As Michael Franz noted, “The conflict between apocalyptic and eschatological Christianity was correctly drawn by Voegelin in this passage, but it is useful to reverse his usage of these adjectives in deference to the conventions of more recent literature. Following Alois Dempf, Voegelin applied the term ‘apocalyptic’ to the doctrine that the divine will is revealed in history and in the church, creating a new historical consciousness, in opposition to the eschatological millenarianism of the Book of Revelation. While this was an improvement over earlier treatments, which often invoke the terms interchangeably, more recent works generally regard Apocalypticism as a species of the genus eschatology. All Christian conceptions of history are eschatological in the sense that history is understood as a teleological process toward a scripturally revealed End, but there is a vast difference between viewing the events of one’s time in the light of the End of history and seeing them as the last events themselves. Augustine provides the classic example that it is possible to be deeply eschatological and yet distinctly anti-apocalyptic. The conflict between these orientations … was not resolved with doctrinal finality until Augustine was able to ‘de-apocalyoticize’ the Book of Revelation with his highly allegorical interpretation in ‘City of God.’ Augustine dismissed literal beliefs in the imminence of the millennium as ‘ridiculous fables’ and declared that ‘the Church even now is the kingdom of Christ and the kingdom of Heaven. And so even now his saints reign with him….’ Augustine held that the Book of Revelation was to be understood not as a prophecy of impending events but rather as an allegory of the struggle between good and evil in the present life of the Church and in the life of individual souls.” My comment follows this: Those who now say New York is Babylon were saying in Augustine’s time that Rome was Babylon. And so it was, indeed! Rome fell in Augustine’s time. But Christ did not return from the clouds and the literal millennium did not begin. And so it will be with us. Therefore we mislead ourselves by focusing on erroneous interpretations of the allegory. Yes, New York will be destroyed at some point. But no, the clouds will not part and you will not be raptured. Sorry. Such beliefs are flattering to your prospects, to be sure. Nevertheless, false comfort is false comfort — conforming to that ever present craving of Americans to be comfortable. No! It is patent escapism! We are responsible now. And that responsibility has no room for false expectations.

      7. Augustine’s writings are full of theological error. The entire reason for the revival of millennial eschatology was the fact that the Bible is meant to be read as information, not allegory. That does not mean there is no allegory, but to allegorize the book of Revelation is entirely unreasonable. Origen who started the allegory nonsense was regarded as a heretic by much of the pre-Nicene Church. Augustine imported much from Manicheism.

      8. ohengineer: I am surprise you should say the Bible is not meant to be read allegorically. Naturally I agree that the part that is history should be read as history. But the spiritually significant parts of the Bible rely heavily on allegory. In fact, the scriptures are packed full of allegory. And the Book of Revelation is the most allegorical book of all; for example, just going from memory, in Revelation we find the following items: A sword coming out of Christ’s mouth, the winepress of the Wrath of God, a city descending to Earth from Heaven, a bottomless pit which has a key, a woman on Seven Hills fornicating with the kings of the earth, Christ being a lamb, blood up to the horse bridles, a woman clothed with the sun, a dragon battling in heaven, beasts with multiple heads and horns, etc. I cannot believe you think these items are to be taken literally. Or do you suppose that Christ is a lamb who eats grass and gives wool? Or that he literally has a sword coming out of his mouth. Do you then believe that Satan is a dragon? Who bottles the wine made from the Grapes of Wrath? By denying allegory, or by saying the book cannot be allegorized, is to dogmatize your way into a host of literalist absurdities. And the worst of these absurdities may include, in fact, subtle spiritual error. Furthermore, is it then credible to then suggest, however indirectly, that Augustine was a heretic, or that Origen (as a heretic) was the first to see allegorical meaning in the scriptures? This latter point is simply untrue. Just read the Book of Isaiah, or Genesis. Furthermore, Augustine is recognized as a Christian saint, not as a heretic. To score a more decisive point: if you say New York or America is Babylon, you are interpretting Babylon allegorically YOURSELF. Right? So how do you get out from under allegory? Your own interpretations are allegorical. You simply cannot get around this point. Of course, I do not like discussing this because many will be offended, and I do not want to offend anyone. But you have decided to press this issue after I have begged you NOT TO. If you continue, I ask you to formulate more consistent rejoinders: that is, self-consistent and consistent with the scriptures.

      9. Re Apocalypticism:

        I don’t buy that “the divine will is revealed in history and in the church, creating a new historical consciousness.” New historical consciousness sounds like another way of reducing God to mere human “consciousness.” The Hegelian view of history as the progressive rationalization. So we’re either elevating humanity to God, or reducing God to human consciousness, either way, a dim view of the Gospel IMO. This way of thinking seems to support the idea that we humans, by our own guile and cunning, are always moving in the right direction one way or another, even if it doesn’t seem so. This is, in fact, the basis of “progressivism” as a religion.

        I also don’t buy pre-tribulation rapture. Nothing about the Gospel (either the literal Word or the broader themes) causes me to think that a feature of life for the Christian is to avoid suffering. To be whisked away in the nick of time to avoid God’s chastisements. No, we suffer them with gratitude for God’s grace and in service to others (that maybe one soul is comforted by our efforts), that really is the point.

        Beyond that – the great mystery. The Gospel tells us that there indeed will be an End of the era followed by the Kingdom of Heaven; it tells us how this story will go, and instructs us to be aware of the signs of the times. There seems to be encouragement toward seeking to know when those times are upon us. But the Gospel also cautions constant vigilance (keep our lamps trimmed), as we will not know the day or the time of Christ’s return. As Nyquist notes, “there is a vast difference between viewing the events of one’s time in the light of the End of history and seeing them as the last events themselves.” We don’t know, and we can’t know. If we consume ourselves with End Times, it risks slipping into a brand of complacency; when we console ourselves with expressions like “in the end, God wins,” it can become cover sitting back and not stepping up, not rising to the occasion. We are actors in history, and our times call for courage. “God wins” almost becomes an excuse for sitting back; just like for nihilistic leftists, the idea that “the planet is bettering without us” becomes their excuse. Both views – though diametric opposites – lead to fatalistic complacency.

        Still, I think some who put current events in the context of End Times do so because they are trying to jolt our fellows out of normalcy bias. They’re trying to urge the “normies” that, no, these are not normal times; we need to be alert, we need to realize this is serious, we need to act. I think it’s possible to make that case just based on historical parallels, but the Biblical themes are compelling. They just are. But we’ve got to guard against relying on notions of inevitability, because a sense of inevitability plays on our psychology, and as long as we have breath, we are called to act. As Nyquist notes, many before us have read the signs, too, and yet history marches on. Human time isn’t Divine time. We could be both close, but thousands of years away. So it seems the better part of wisdom (and faith) is to remain ready, but never certain or expectant.

    3. I don’t want to make this a big discussion, but I believe the Bible does mention the US in Revelation 18. A city that reigns over all other cities, that does massive commerce and trade with all other nations, with many peoples and many tongues, spreading sin, destroyed in one day and one hour by fire from Heaven.

      It certainly sounds to me like a surprise, simultaneous nuclear attack on America. Henry Grover and Dumitru Duduman have also had these visions, among others.

      1. I hope you’re wrong. Woe to the great city of Babylon, which is the city I think is meant. Remember the argument that Abraham had with Sodom and Gomorrah. God is merciful if we repent…even to the stiffnecked Israelites.

      1. I want to say something . I respect Jeff’s request not to get into scripture

        ,i

  26. Jeff, a Ukrainian American friend of mine sent a link to an interesting interview series called Uncommon Knowledge. In this episode, the fellow interviewed is a Russian born immigrant. He came here in 1974 at age 21, got his doctorate in Anthropology and now teaches at Dartmouth College. His name is Sergei Kan and he is talking about his research on the Gulag.

    Next year is the 50th anniversary of the Gulag Archipelago and he is teaching a new course titled The Red Terror: History of the Stalin labor camps using the book by Anne Applebomb titled Gulag. Here is a link. I thought it was very informative.
    https://youtu.be/1QlM7TXkl00

  27. I’ve been wondering lately if Mr. Putin has given any thought to ordering one or two underground nuclear tests in one of the old Soviet-era testing zones, instead of going right to the battlefield anytime soon and detonating one there. Yes he would break the test ban treaty, but extraordinary times require extraordinary actions, he might state as justification.
    That way, he puts a serious additional real scare into NATO with a one-step-closer surprise action. Hope doddering old Joe Biden is near a White House commode with a handicapped stall when he first hears the word, he might well need one handy if he has
    a serious enough ‘gut’ reaction to it all. It all “depends” on how quickly he can get there to grab that support bar quick enough to sit on down in time.

  28. “There is a providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children, and the United States of America” — Otto Von Bismarck. Whatever the odds and circumstances, America & her friends should take heart (especially the foolish and drunk).

    Saw the news unfold live, this was among the earliest aggregators/timelines:
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/explosion-rocks-russias-prized-kerch-strait-bridge-leading-to-crimea

    “Did a truck bomb actually damage the bridge, or is there another explanation?”
    There were at least two fabricated (quickly) videos of daylight (overcast) strikes implying a downward trajectory. Mainstream news (UK especially) are making a point of noting a “wave” beneath the lower car lanes just prior to the strike prior to the footage. On the purely conjectural end, a “scalar wave” weapon modality demonstrating weird-tech dominance would be one way to cool thermonuclear jets.

    A secondary explosion from ordinance being transported over the bridge for added effect would be desirable, but add complexity. If the charges were pre-positioned, a truck planted with an automated detonator might be the modality.

    Live coverage on The Enforcer youtube channel calculated a North-Northeast likely launch point given the range of typical cruise missiles in US & Ukraine inventories (assuming roughly 500-580 kph). A minor stretch given the current publich force dispositions. The ports on the eastern coast servicing Crimea & the mainland would all be in range as well, ripe for degradation of the ferry service.

    “Are Putin’s minions turning against him, or is this itself a deception?”

    Pre-War naval exercises in the vicinity of transatlantic cables (esp. Ireland) would be a very significant economic disruption on top of cyber interference (too much automated quant-trading).

    The old Jailhouse of Nations’ leadership having ethnic separatist motivations for allowing Russia to become a failed state looks not totally implausible. It is exceptionally risky to its geostrategic integrity, already in question given the ‘necessity’ of the Ukraine adventure (and further grabs, if we’re to believe a Peter Zeihan), too much for false flag moves. Then again, the Dugin Daughter death remains anomalous (Shinzo Abe tit-for-tat?)

    A Scenario: That “12th group” responsible for nuclear weapons handling is ‘spotted’ the other day (not with ordinance, but their people). Then this on Putin’s 70th birthday. Nuking one’s own territory would be somewhat less risky, or at least introduce uncertainty into the NATO OODA loop & response. One better: a cornered Crimean garrison allows mobile ballistic missile launchers that plausibly could have nuclear war heads to fall into the hands of the seemingly unstoppable Ukrainian onslaught, and Moscow preemptively nukes those (and a great deal more due to ‘risk’ and ‘uncertainty’) and/or blows the Zaporizhya power plant in retaliation. Rainy season mitigates fallout by air.

    Why do most experts believe Russia is out of men and weapons? (Something I do not understand.)

    Not required to occupy nuclear wastelands. Ill-equipped barbarian chattel suits just fine.

    After the Berlin Wall, I would have proxies paying top dollar to shunt out as much hardware as money could buy to the end of them falling well short of what they believed to have on paper at this moment. Similar stories about China’s grain stockpiles abound with corruption leaving many silos empty, pig farmers exploiting government subsidies for phantom farms written off as “swine ebola losses”. Probably war-gamed out maximum conscription before the bottom drops out from their war economy (and Germany is full up on Gas reserves sufficient for one year; private sector likely has even more capacity).

    “Why is China preparing for war against the United States, as reported by Mr. Wang of Lude Media?”

    Caught red handed. Dazak, Ecohealth Alliance, the French Connection, none of it discrete and nigh all of it publicly available and being talked about by RFK Jr. sorts, documented for the historical record. Maybe Manchurian Candidate isn’t acting according to plans; half the scissors looks rusted, blunt, stuck. ‘Elite capture’ turns out mostly worthless with NSA intercepting sufficient amounts of the control file goods to instill a patriotic fear of the noose, to double-agent ends (ought to be the case on paper at least).

    Mad Dog strategy in the so-called COVID prophylactic showing the will to depopulate (or take the occasion to regardless of apparent risk) using the gene transfection mass trials (serious and demonstrated indifference to casualties, unlike the theoretical on in China). Certain patents around this tech. center around active repair of radiation damge to DNA “in the event of radiological events, terrorism, dirty bombs” ect.; catastrophic dampening of the earth’s magnetic field and cosmic rays might be another reason to pursue such a test.

    “Draft Dodger Diaspora”
    5th column exist in large numbers thanks to Soviet population transfers within the Baltics. Zero should be allowed in to Western countries with their Head of State’s past “Illegals” units experience. They would have the inadequate utilization of this by Germany and Japan as examples.

    “It’s very strange. I cannot get out my mind Zelensky’s demeanor in that BBC interview. It was not that of a person who was about to take down a bridge. It was the presentation of someone who accepts his death as a forgone conclusion. Or something like that.”

    Apropos your conversation with that former Soviet officer, “Ukraine is designed to be folded back in within a few weeks.” There is scuttlebutt among Ukrainians that there were stand down orders from Kiev (or compromised general staff elements) which were countermanded by a ‘colonels’ revolt’ or some equivalent with the coordination of the NATO training facilities”. I’d submit that the rumors of “NATO general at Azovstal” and the strange suicidal relief helicopter sorties may have actually been some of these malefactors traded for in the more recent exchange (safer in Turkish custody, being traitors and all). If Zelensky counted among these (Panama Papers), he may just not be a good enough actor to method act resolve. Previous statements including “all illegal things must be removed” looks like an allusion to a legalistic description of the Kerch Bridge as “illegal” in the past.

    (Closed Captioning by the youtube Creator, Ukranian expat studying in America)
    https://youtu.be/Vqdssrdagrs?t=1884

    “Ukrainians are not known for suicide bombings, no. But Muslims are, and Russia as well as Ukraine have Muslims.”
    The timing of the Hijab Protests & fatalities in Iran are astonishingly convenient. Wouldn’t rule out Turkish involvement. If Iran made a secular turn, they are more natural hegemons in Muslim/Turanian Central Asia.

  29. Hello Jeff. I think (or hope) we are not yet on the brink of a nuclear WWIII. It looks more like a Cold War 2.0 at the moment.
    Please never underestimate Putin, he once said:
    “I realized that in every situation — whether I was right or wrong — I had to be strong,” Putin told biographer Oleg Blotsky. “I just understood that if you want to win, then you have to fight to the finish in every fight, as if it was the last and decisive battle.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/05/putins-savage-mentality-on-display-ukraine-war-scenes-bucha/

    I think the Russians are using a different tactic for now, “SOPPKVOP”.
    Russian strategists have long been working on new generation warfare tactics, which include so-called Strategic Operation to Defeat Critical Infrastructure of the Adversary (SOPPKVOP), which prioritizes civilian instead of military targets, employs kinetic and non-kinetic strikes … Developed by the Russian General Staff, this warfighting concept was revealed by retired General Colonel Viktor Barynkin during a 2010 conference of the Military Academy of the General Staff.
    For more information, please see Rebekah Koffler’s excellent book “Putin’s People”
    https://books.google.com/books?id=5Pa7DwAAQBAJ&pg=PT111&lpg=PT111&dq=strategic+operation+to+defeat+critical+infrastructure+of+the+adversary+rebekah+koffler&source=bl&ots=eEVlEccvEd&sig=ACfU3U1_eiT1ovkcerwJfqXKdPZw53G2cQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj3tcby9cf6AhWWElkFHbcTBM4Q6AF6BAgSEAM#v=onepage&q=strategic%20operation%20to%20defeat%20critical%20infrastructure%20of%20the%20adversary%20rebekah%20koffler&f=false

    How appropriate that Joe Biden gave Putin in June 2021 a list of 16 critical infrastructure ‘entities’ that must be off-limits to cyberattacks … Putin will certainly abide by the agreement, …, unbelievable.
    https://news.yahoo.com/biden-gave-putin-list-16-175500657.html

    I think we should be prepared for attacks on critical infrastructure (power, water, etc.) in the coming months, and for now, not nuclear.

      1. Maybe there were cyber attacks that stayed under the radar? Remember all those fires at food processing plants? Listen to the first 5 minutes of this “Boots on the Ground” report. It’s very interesting:

  30. This to me seems like a staged play by Russia. I believe it is them staging all these attacks. A slow, consistent escalation intended to desensitize and normalize the people to more and more violent acts. By portraying themselves as the victim, they establish moral legitimacy for when they carry out their preplanned attacks on the West. It feels very much to me like a play. And I do not believe they particularly cared if they won or not in Ukraine, that operation feels to me like a small part of a much larger play: a pretext to establish a climate of violence, to establish a front against the West, to change the mood, to escalate to war. The Russians usually have plans within plans, and Ukraine does not feel like the larger plan, but one that serves other purposes.

      1. It seems to be a Russian recruitment technique. Their people do not want this war, so they must persuade them. See, the enemy is attacking our infrastructure. You must fight.

      2. Every attack on themselves sets up a justification for an attack on us. Now if they attack our pipeline, it is merely equal. If they attack our bridge, it is merely equal. This should actually worry you. Every attack they stage on themselves is an attack they are most likely preparing to do on us. This is how Communists think. The justification and pretext is very important to them.

    3. Russia has already retaliated for the Kerch attack by killing more civilians.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Km-tEYMbsMc Ukraine War: Zaporizhzhia bombing a ‘revenge attack’?

      Prof Michael Clarke says something very interesting. He notes that attacks on Saki airbase and Kerch bridge in Crimea are out of range for Ukraine’s artillery; however it’s possible they have long-range missiles they are not supposed to have, like the ATACM missile that can go 180 miles when fired from a MLRS, and whose warhead can do the damage seen in Crimea. The missile would not have come directly from the US but from Poland, Romania or Turkey who have purchased such missiles from the US.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-kAXLpnd6o Ukraine: ‘Special forces operation’ may be behind Crimea bridge blast
      Oct 8, 2022 – Sky News’ Security and Defence Analyst Michael Clarke
      – Truck explosion story is ridiculous, if it was such a thing the explosion would have gone upwards not come from underneath
      – cannot get that much explosives in a truck and bridges are designed to withstand such types of accidents
      – More likely it was a missile or Ukrainian special forces; similar to the sinking of the Moskva in terms of a blow to Russia’s image
      – The damage will give Ukraine a 2-3 week advantage until the rail bridge is repaired, Russians will find it very difficult to get supplies to Kherson region which is already in trouble

      Compared to other seemingly pointless (except for escalation and propaganda value) attacks like the one Nord Stream or the one that killed Dugin’s daughter, this is the first one that has a military purpose so it was likely Ukraine behind it. The Kerch attack is also too much of a personal blow to Putin’s ego to have been deliberately carried out by Russian security services. The attack could be either from US-made missiles or maybe even Ukrainian-made missiles. Jeff said a while ago that the Ukrainians may have developed their own sophisticated weapons. If that’s the case then it’s interesting how Russia is denying Ukraine’s capabilities by first claiming it was a Muslim suicide bomber and then Putin fingering Ukraine’s special forces. Russia is more willing to admit to incompetence and lax security than it is willing to admit to Ukraine having a few powerful weapons. The recruitment angle to get Russians more fired up about the war also makes sense here.

      1. Atacm were supposed to be on the way. I didn’t think Ukraine was having them early

      1. Weak response for all what America does not only to Russia. And Americans not only on this blog support that.

      2. Commit: You admit Russia is at war with America, right? The USSR was working to overthrow our Constitution for more than 100 years. Do you imagine we are entirely supine? We will fight back at some point. Of course, we are going to do things to Russia, especially as Russia has revealed its intentions. Fair is fair.

      3. Come now Commit. The US did nothing to Russia, nor did Ukraine. Yet, Putin still invaded. You don’t only swallow lies, you yo regurgitate them as if they are the truth. You lie because you love lies.

  32. Lots of threats out there:

    “Former White House national security adviser John Bolton is now taking to the networks to call for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assassination. “I think we should make it clear publicly so that not just Putin but that all the top Russian leadership… that if Putin authorizes the use of a nuclear weapon he’s signing his own suicide note,” the well-known neocon hawk said to CBS in a Friday appearance.

    Describing that Putin is head of command and control for all Russian – including nuclear – forces, Bolton continued by stating what he says should be official US policy: “He’s a legitimate military target… he needs to know that he’s on our target list at this point.” Bolton essentially called for the US to assassinate the Russian leader if the opportunity ever arises.”

    1. Assassinating enemy leaders, as I have said many times, is an evil policy — and Bolton is a dreadful fool. May God save us from the likes of him. How can we make an honorable peace with anyone if we act dishonorably? It is against the rules of war — against our most ancient codes of conduct. This advocacy of murder stinks of atheism and rotten pragmatism. Let Putin play the assassin. Let’s not stoop to it ourselves!

      1. Killing enemy leader in war was actually pretty common during the middle ages when people were very religious. Even assassination of leaders was quite common.

      2. Committee: I did not say “killing leaders,” which is permitted on the battlefield, or in armed combat. Assassination is not the same thing. It is murder, not killing. This distinction, of course, may not exist for you. But it does exist for me, and existed in the Middle Ages.

      4. Re:
        [ Jeff Nyquist says:
        October 9, 2022 at 11:13 am

        …Let’s not stoop to it ourselves! ]

        The United States commanded 35 bioweapons labs in Ukraine and trained Azov NAZIS. That’s not low enough for you, Jeff? Sure, some of those labs were Soviet hold overs, but the US took gain of function to new high tech, extremes.

  34. “Putin Decries “Act Of Terrorism” On Crimean Bridge, Identifies Ukraine Secret Services As Culprits”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/large-explosion-destroys-part-key-bridge-linking-russia-crimea-zelensky-aide-says

    And what is up with the postage stamps??? First North Korea and now Ukraine.

    “Kiev hasn’t officially taken responsibility for the Kerch incident, although it commemorated the explosion within hours with a new postage stamp” (same link)

    1. It’s rich of Putin to refer to a legitimate military target as a terrorist attack after deliberately shelling so many civilian areas and infrastructure in Ukraine. But Russian propaganda thrives on fake outrage and disproportionate response to perceived slights.

      Seeing as how his KGB lackey just proclaimed him God’s anointed, the Kerch attack could not have come at a worse time for Putin.
      https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/07/god-put-you-in-power-russian-orthodox-leader-tells-putin-on-70th-birthday-a79020

      2. God’s anointed. That really put the pressure on him, didn’t it? As Jeff said above, it’s Putin’s way of recruiting: “See, the enemy is attacking our infrastructure. You must fight.”

  35. MUST READ ARTICLE:

    Red-faced Vladimir Putin brands Crimea bridge blast a ‘terror attack’ and blames Ukrainian special forces ahead of meeting of his Security Council tomorrow amid Western fears he ‘might go nuclear’ – as Russian governors threaten ‘revenge’ missile attacks:

    Russian president Vladimir Putin says the explosion at the Kerch bridge in Crimea was ‘an act of terrosim’
    The president said today the blast was ‘devised, carried out and ordered by the Ukrainian special services’
    He made the statement a day before he is due to meet with his top defence chiefs in his Security Council
    The bridge had been a pet project of Putin’s after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and key in the war effort

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11296677/Putin-chair-meeting-Security-Council-tomorrow-Crimea-bridge-blast.html

  36. There was an unusually large wave, just before the bridge was destroyed. A motor vehicle exploding on the road surface of the bridge would not blow down, but up. Does Ukraine have submarines with torpedoes that could collapse a bridge of that size? I doubt if the attack was conducted by China. Who could it have been?

    The bridge was neither in Russia nor Ukraine. The attack was not an attack upon Russian soil. I doubt if Putin will try to assert the claim the bridge was in Russian territory, because he doesn’t want to have to go nuclear. He will have to retaliate, but he won’t attack NATO or the United States for the destruction of that bridge. That’s my opinion. I have no inside information about that.

    I expect that Putin will use his SATAN 2 mach 20 Sarmat missile to annihilate something precious to Zelensky.

    1. > “I expect that Putin will use his SATAN 2 mach 20 Sarmat missile to annihilate something precious to Zelensky.”

      Israel?

      2. 16,000 mph hypersonic missile / Speed of Sound @ 767 mph = Mach 20

        Putin’s 16,000mph ‘Satan-2’ nuke with 12 warheads
        thesun .co.uk/news/17068427/satan-two-nuclear-missile-ready-russia/

      3. Extremely unlikely, Putin himself claims to have been partially raised by Hasidic Jews. Apparently his parents worked constantly when he was quite young and the Jewish family over from them took pity and would invite him in while they were away and fed and care for him of which he reflects quite fondly.

        Furthermore, and unbelievably so, almost 20% of the Israeli people can be considered Russian speaking as so many former Soviet citizens have fled/moved there. As murderous as one gets you are not likely to glaze your own ex-pats and their descendants especially when their kin had shown you such kindness in your youth. Plus if you really wanted to draw the full fury of the United States into the conflict that would certainly do it.

  38. Wade Queen was a mentioned contribution to your works. Should we disregard hin [

    1. He did not provide any of the links or research in my article. He just called and got through. I spent the morning looking at links shared by others. I consulted with other analysts.

  39. If this were a suicide bombing, it would be an escalation from a new party in the conflict. Why? I am not 100% sure, but it would see the end of Russia as we know it if Putin is lured into declaring war on Ukraine.

    The outcomes that I would see are; Russia pulls off the same trick performed in Stalingrad, where they “magically” produced entire armies to encircle German forces, or the Russians attempt this trick, lose and Putin is deposed in a military coup. Neither outcome is a step forward for us, of course. If Russia does manage to encircle and capture the Ukrainian armed forces, the war will be won, and this will cause a large loss of prestige for us in the west. If the attack fails, Putin assumedly gets deposed, and this is worse. If the generals took over Russia they have a convenient scapegoat in Putin, they can negotiate favourable terms, plus they now have an extremely loyal 300,000 man army who have recent battle experience and a hatred of the west.

    It may be that the best option today is to negotiate a peace. This gives us a chance to build up forces and remilitarize with an actual threat and will stop the momentum. Again, just to make that 300,000 point again. What Russia has at the moment is a loyal army of reserves who didn’t run and instead want to fight to defend the motherland.

      1. That is a fair point, it would require a backdown on the Ukrainian side as well, which they are not willing to do. My concern is that Putin has been drawing the Ukrainians into a trap.

      3. Aussiep, why should Ukraine back down? They are fighting for their existence. Putin is fighting to fulfill his imperial and power lust. The negotiations offered by Putin was just a forum in which he did nothing more than offer surrender terms. Now he wants negotiations because he has been rocked back on his heels. However, all he is doing is what the Japs did ion ’43-’44. Get peace while holding onto his ill gotten gains.

    2. Aussiep, your analysis and concern about Russia’s reserves are off the mark. Why do you think that Russian reservists, who served in the same corrupt & incompetent Russian military, will fare any better than the active duty soldiers in elite units who were largely slaughtered in Ukr.? Why do you think the 300,000 (or more) new draftees are going to be committed, enthused, or even prepared to venture into battle in a foreign land?

      Putin has only a selection of very bad choices left, having refused to declare victory in his Special Military Operation back in April and get out. When one finds himself at the bottom of deep hole, rule no. 1 is: stop digging.

      1. Call it gut feel if nothing else, I mean if I look back on this in 6 months time and go that was an immature and ill-informed opinion I think I will be a happy. I am honestly happy to be proven wrong on this point.

        But given we know how many lies were told over the My Sharona virus and the response who is to say we are not being lied to now? If you do some research on Stalingrad for instance, it appears that Germany had won. There were only a few neighbourhoods left to mop up and that would have ended the war at that point. Then General Zhukov appeared with his armies and captured the Germans in Stalingrad. Up to the day that happened, the Germans were told they were winning. How can we not say the same thing is happening now?

        Also, the Russian conscripts are reservists from what I understand who have undertaken some military training. It is not impossible to get a civilian army trained and in fighting shape particularly if they have military doctrine and know how to fire weapons.

        This is a dangerous situation and we need to seriously consider forcing peace on both sides. Sadly I think it may already be too late.

      3. Jeff, Putin is only a place holder. There is a structure,a culture behind Putin.

    3. Simply knowing Russia’s leaders mentality as I do, where they obsess over deception, I refuse to believe they are losing until it is absolutely concretely verifiable. These are snakes, constantly conjuring up mirages and facades. Never take them at face value.

    4. AussieP, what in the world?? Why would you even suggest that Ukraine “negotiate” with murderers and rapists who have invaded *their* country?

      I hate seeing people say this. Like Elon Musk, and some conservatives on social media.

      What these people are doing is skin to seeing a creep beating up on a woman, but because you are afraid of him hurting you, you condemn the woman and say she should take the assault.

      I will not play this cowardly game, cloaked by “concern” for Ukraine if they continue fighting, or even cloaked by “common sense” in trying to avoid larger nuclear war.

      If Putin is going to use nukes against us, then that’s just going to have to be what happens.

      Ukraine should fight on if that us what they choose to do. They have suffered much, and will only suffer more if they surrender.

      This chorus of people saying Ukraine should surrender in order to reduce *our* chances of suffering from possible nuclear attack, is nothing but selfish cowardice.

      If we are doomed to face nuclear attack, let’s at least play the man, and not condemn a wrongly invaded people.

      3. Greyknight, I normally like your comments, but not this one. We are not “doomed to face nuclear attack.” We are called to find how to avoid it. Elon Musk wasn’t “condemning” anybody. He was suggesting what he thought might be a solution. It may not be a good solution, but at least he’s trying to come up with an idea that supports the possibility of life continuing on this planet. It would be foolish for either us or the Ukranians to run forward pell-mell, screaming self-righteously into the maw of certain global death. Everyone needs to de-escalate here..

      4. I hope we are not doomed to face nuclear attack. But regardless of if we are or not, we must hold the proper side responsible for this war, and that is 100% Russia.

        Musk should understand that you can’t negotiate with such a man as Putin, whose military has invaded, murdered, raped, and tortured their neighbors.

        He should not use his influential platform to weaken sympathy for Ukraine, and isolate Ukrainians (which is the only result that can come from him publicly stating his proposed solution).

      5. Gretchen: indeed, even though the Ukrainians are responding in kind by damaging Russia’s Kerch bridge, they are attacking a nuclear power which another reader referred to as “taunting.” The point is well taken. Any direct attack on a nuclear power raises a serious question. Will that power revert to nuclear weapons? The bear is growling. How long before it bites? It seems to me that Moscow is now warning the West. Whatever Ukraine does to us — we will retaliate directly on you. Yet the Ukrainians have suffered worse damage than Russia. They are addressing their own war aims. They are nobody’s proxy, and things could spiral out of control. All the same, we are not doomed. Russia could undergo its own Maidan Revolution.

      6. I understand what you are saying, and I am not talking about surrendering. Surrendering involves large-scale de-militarization and occupation by a foreign power. I am talking about putting a hard border between East and West as an alternative to WW3. I don’t think it is naïve or foolish to want that, given the alternative. Stating that because our enemy is strong, we need to be ready and consider negotiating is not the same as saying we should surrender.

        It is an academic discussion now, in any case. Whatever opportunity there was for peace has passed. With the bombing of Kiev the conflict has escalated, and we need to prepare for the next stage in this conflict.

      7. I agree that a hard border along with strong Western military would be a good idea. And definitely should happen if Russia/China are defeated. I wasn’t attacking you (or Gretchen), but so many are calling on Ukraine to negotiate now and come to some sort of terms with Russia, it just makes me sick. Putin and the Russian power structure are evil and hellbent on conquest of the West. The only thing they will understand, is overwhelming force that drives them to their knees.

        I see it as kind of like my grandfather once said when describing how to deal with a certain criminal, bully type guy around here one time. He said, first get his attention with a baseball bat across the forehead. Then tell him we need to talk about his ways. Kind of crude, maybe. But certain thuggish people can only be dealt with in such a manner. That’s what needs to be done with Putin and all of his comrades.

      8. “This chorus of people saying Ukraine should surrender in order to reduce *our* chances of suffering from possible nuclear attack, is nothing but selfish cowardice.”

        Agreed! 👍

    5. Perseus and AussieP raise good questions. Given the Perestroika deception and the Covid lies, why should we believe that Russia’s apparent weakness is genuine?

      I would say that both the Covid hysteria and Perestroika represent the epitome of what the Communists have always excelled at, namely societal and cultural subversion. Getting the masses and the elites to believe in things that aren’t really true and to implement ruinous national policies based on that false consensus truth. This is different from subversion and deception on an actual battlefield, where decisions are made based on hard intel, and especially given today’s signal interception and satellite technology. There’s overwhelming evidence of Russian failure on the battlefield from open intel sources. I don’t see how, for example, Russia could keep massive troop movements completely secret and spring a Stalingrad-like surprise on the Ukrainians, as Aussie speculates. Russia’s amassing of 200,000+ troops on the Ukrainian border was noticed months in advance of the 2022 invasion by Western intelligence, it’s just that no one believed Russia would actually invade and that it was all just a bluff to strengthen Russia’s negotiating position. One could say the poor performance of the Russian army so far is another example of Russia’s success at cultural subversion. Russia could well pull off a surprise nuclear strike, or use very devastating non-nuclear weapons with no warning. But not so much a surprise military manoeuvre using conventional troops. Instead it is the Ukrainian forces that are proving to be much better at this kind of thing.

      There’s an argument to be made that if Russia had stuck to its strengths of hybrid warfare and societal subversion, it would have a better chance of subjugating the West. Open war runs the risk of the West once again uniting against a common enemy. The hybrid war in Ukraine succeeded in weakening and dividing that country and in ensuring that any Western support was an inadequate afterthought. Germany and Europe were content to be dependent on Russian gas and the presence and influence of Russian elites in the West was huge. All it would take was a few more crises before the US and Europe would succumb to full-on socialist tyranny, and those new dictatorial regimes would gladly take direction from Russia and China. The public health regime + political extremism leading to civil war shows another way that North America can be depopulated in advance of Chinese colonization without the CCP/Russia publicly showing their hand by waging kinetic war. If the Communists played their cards right this could still be achieved within a few years, at the rate the West is going. After civil war and other crises have taken their toll, the Chinese could just start moving in to the US and Canada en masse and further consolidate and formalize their control of their new colonies. But instead of playing to their strengths — insidious infiltration and subversion — Russia and –maybe soon– China, chose to show their hands and play for military glory.

      As for the other two points
      Perestroika: Russia the 90’s was certainly a period of violence and apparent instability. But much of this instability, corruption and gangland violence was coming from the top layers of the Communist structures, as the elites were trying to reform Soviet Russia into a semi-liberal democracy while still holding an iron-grip on power behind the scenes. And many things did not go according to plan. The difference between this period and the current instability and apparent weakness of the Putin regime is that the signs of change are coming from below, from the people, and don’t have the hallmarks of carefully planned operations from above. The attacks on army recruitment offices, the exodus of hundreds of thousands of professionals and military-age males, the bitter complaints of Russian soldiers on social media, other countless small acts of sabotage and open anti-war protests, all point to a deep discontent bubbling to the surface in Russia, which the regime cannot easily keep a lid on. Jeff makes a good point that we could be seeing the beginning of Russia’s Maidan, which was a leaderless people’s revolution that truly managed to transform Ukraine while the weakening Soviet structures simply could not hold on in the face of such united opposition. Speaking of Putin’s conspicuous display of wealth, Yanukovich behaved the same way when he was President of Ukraine, he loved displaying the power and wealth of an absolute leader, and his lawless rule eventually turned even his supporters in the east against him.

      Covid: While it was an enormously successful fraud in terms of public perception, the truth was still knowable almost from the beginning. The debunked ‘mask science’, the drive to label every illness and death as Covid, the lockdowns failing to stop the spread of Covid, the enormous amount of evidence of Covid vaccine injuries, all this information was available online for people who were skeptical of the media narrative. Unless I’m wrong, I don’t see anything comparative to this wealth of evidence showing that Russia’s weakness is deliberately faked. Unlike the Soviet era or present-day North Korea, Russia is not behind an impenetrable iron curtain, anyone with a VPN can access foreign news sources or can speak about what is happening in Russia with people abroad.

      1. Laura: Your description of the course of events leads to a second observation. What is the fate of political structures based on lies? How long do they last? And when they collapse, how does that collapse come about? There are good reasons to think this is how it comes about.

      2. I am not saying that Russia is not performing poorly in Ukraine. I am saying that this may be intentional. We have to remember that Communists are okay sacrificing small things for larger ones.

        What does Russia lose here? They lose prestige, they lose respect, they lose the impression of capability, they lose territory, they lose respect for their military forces.

        But what do they gain? They gain a dynamic which has now been set into motion which is normalizing us to literal acts of war between Russia and the West. Pipelines are literally being blown up. Bridges are exploding. German communications cables are now being severed.

        Russia has now gained a dynamic that can be escalated, possibly all the way up to nuclear war. After all, most of Asia, Africa, and Europe will probably survive the decapitating strike. Those people have to believe to some extent that what happens was the result of a back-and-forth, not a psychopathic pre-emptive strike. Communists believe very strongly in the strategic superiority of convincing you of a righteous lie about why they did what they did. The psychological component is very important to them in everything they do. They will always have a lie ready for what they do. Always.

        So they have gained a situation which they can now dial up, like a pot on a stove. Ukraine is the pretext, but the goal is the conflict. The conflict was the larger goal, so perhaps they don’t mind losing thousands, or losing respect, etc..

        With this conflict dynamic they have created, they can possibly start direct sabotage of the West and America, with Westerners believing that it is merely “retribution”, instead of the beginning of a decapitation strike. THAT is the benefit of creating this fake conflict, that it serves as the pretext for their ALREADY PLANNED hostilities. But the West merely believes it is a “response”. Thus they think they have some control over it. But they don’t.

        If Russia is able to use this conflict as a pretext to reach full mobilization, put their nukes on full alert, send their subs to our shores, start sabotage operations in our countries, all the while convincing the West that all of this is merely a “response” from a “cornered, desperate” Putin who is “lashing out” and “about to be deposed”, that is a MASSIVE win for them, and absolutely worth wasting several tens of thousands of Russians in Ukraine, or looking silly and incompetent, and wasting some Soviet equipment. They will gladly pay that smaller price for the much larger potential gain. That is what I am saying could potentially be going on. And China? Where is China in all of this? Just sitting, ready, waiting, silent, deadly. Waiting to strike. With Rocketman standing by as well. The Final Act, if you will.

  40. Re: Ukraine refusing to negotiate.
    A couple of thoughts. First, back at the end of Feb, when Rus units were at the gates of Kyiv, I recall that Zelensky traveled by helicopter personally to a negotiation inside Belarus, to which Putin sent a mid-level functionary who displayed hubris and arrogance. Later, the Russians made clear that they want to obliterate the concept of Ukraine as a separate nation or even an ethnic identify apart from Russia. And Russia committed war crimes against civilians in Bucha and Izyum, among other places, and bombed hospitals and apartment bldgs.

    Now the worm has turned and Putin is on his back foot, bitterly complaining that Ukr. won’t negotiate. But he had his chance and spurned it. How can Ukr. negotiate with someone who wants to utterly erase them??? Ukr.’s security now depends upon decisively defeating Russia on the battlefield (ala the Battle of Warsaw, 1920) so that the Russians give up and move on.

    I think our (NATO) strategic goal should be the break-up of the Rus Federation into 15-20 ethnic states and their demilitarization (or certainly denuclearization). Let’s remember that their collective GDP is only the size of Italy’s.

    Then we turn our attention fully to China…

  41. Jeff, in a comment on a previous blog post you referred to an autobiographical account by Michael McFaul, where he mentioned meetings “with no witnesses” between Sergey Lavrov and Hillary Clinton, and Lavrov and John Kerry, which preceded the Obama administration’s pivot on Russia. Can this account be found in McFaul’s book, “From Cold War to Hot Peace,” or elsewhere?

    1. Yes. McFaul’s account is described in that book. You got it. The Clinton meeting was very strange. She was tight-lipped about it. Would say nothing to McFaul and he was the US Ambassador to Russia,

      1. John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov: Fatal attraction I

        It was disturbing watching John’s bromance with Sergey deepen while Syria burned.

        Marwan Bishara
        Senior political analyst at Al Jazeera.

        https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2016/8/26/john-kerry-and-sergey-lavrov-fatal-attraction-i/

        https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2016/8/29/john-kerry-and-sergey-lavrov-fatal-attraction-ii

        https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2016/8/29/john-kerry-and-sergey-lavrov-fatal-attraction-iii

        https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2016/9/5/john-kerry-and-sergey-lavrov-fatal-attraction-iv

        https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2016/9/5/john-kerry-and-sergey-lavrov-fatal-attraction-v

  43. This is a bit off topic. But, with all the brewing tensions everywhere, what percentage would people give we may experience energy “insecurity” here in the States this winter? I know we are not in the same supply pickle Europe is in with natural gas, as they are being told to plan to huddle in one room with blankets in Sweden and cutting down forests for green firewood to burn elsewhere. But, what percentage or rating (low, med, high) would you say we risk being taken off line or a potential hot war here, making energy supplies undependable, at best? Or do most feel energy costs will just be high but supplies sufficient?

    1. Wood stoves. I’m worried. Reconfigure your house to make a small room that you cab heat.

      1. Ok. Thank u. Been wondering if I’m going daft for having concerns. Normalcy bias still a battle despite seeing events unfold.

      2. It’s a good idea to be prepared for disruptions just in case. We don’t ever expect our house to burn down, but we carry insurance to be on the safe side. The people in Texas were certainly surprised last winter by power outages. An alternative source of heat, some extra food and water, flashlights and candles…. always a good idea. Consider it insurance. 🙂 You truly never know what may be ahead.

      3. Need to consider water, too. I’ve seen youtube videos on digging shallow wells (e.g., 20 feet), and it’s surprisingly easy if you have the right supplies, which I believe are still available. That said, I don’t know how common it is to have a high enough water table for it to work.

    2. Natural gas in the United States, is so abundant that prior to the Covid Live Exercise, it was considered a waste byproduct. Producers were paying people to haul it away. It’s a simple matter to convert an internal combustion engine to run on propane. Along with a victory garden, it’s a good idea to buy a big, propane tank and a power generator converted to run on natural gas, to power the house as well as the car.

    3. Thats Germany, not Sweden. We don’t use natural gas in Sweden for heating, generally. Most of the big heating plants heating the citys burn waste, wood chips and oil, and natural gas is mostly used complementary, if at all. Outside the big heating networks the houses tend to use electricity, directly or via some kind of heatpump, burning wood or oil.
      And, the bigger heating plants are dual purpose, producing heat and electricity. Not a whole lot of electricity, but still.

    1. Talk about projection, a typical communist tactic—taking out bridges and mining one’s own side of the border are not preparations to invade, as Belarus claims, rather those actions are taken to defend against a possible invasion from Belarus. Belarussian complaints are signals that they plan to invade Ukraine and their complaint is that the Ukrainian actions are making it more difficult for that invasion. So they accuse the Ukrainians of doing what they themselves are planning on doing.

  45. One difference between Putin, and Hitler/Stalin, is that Putin seems to enjoy a lavish lifestyle with insanely expensive mansions. By comparison both Hitler and Stalin were relatively ascetic. Please correct me if I’m wrong on that. I think a lot of Kremlin money does bleed out in lavish corruption compared with historic conquerors of the past. My personal feeling is that Russia is in disarray

    1. @Dan A
      Regarding the issue of Putin’s vs Stalin’s “lifestyles”, there was a Kremlin meeting in 1984 that made a decisive change. Previously, the nomenklatura enjoyed material privileges according to importance. Starting from 1984, the upper ranks of the nomenklatura shifted the Soviet Union’s “public” wealth into their own hands. This coincided with the puzzled observations of Western banks as they saw a massive outflow of capital from the Soviet Union.

      We can deduce, on the basis of the Golitsyn scenario, that the nomenklatura knew that its controlled collapse of the Soviet Union in the 90s would have some unpredictable, chaotic results (which was indeed the case), and that they could only be sure of maintaining control in the end if they personally commanded the country’s wealth, and kept it in relative safety abroad.

      Stalin himself lived in grand apartments within the Kremlin complex and there were frequent banquets where the political elite mixed with artists and other intellectuals. Stalin had a large income in foreign currency arising from sales of his published writings and speeches abroad, and he used the money to endow the “Stalin Prize”, awarded annually in the 40s and early 50s for high achievement in the arts, sciences and letters – a first class prize could exceed the lifetime income of an ordinary Soviet worker. Fine modern apartment blocks were constructed in the centre of Moscow and Leningrad for the nomenklatura and the cultural elite. The price of these privileges was, of course, obedience.

      So the wealth of the Soviet and post-Soviet elites are difficult to compare, since the privileges of the former was largely independent of any personal wealth. Even then, we have the example of Khodorkovsky, the young Communist who was permitted to launch various business ventures in the 80s, under Gorbachev, becoming one of the so-called “oligarchs” (a misleading name) in the 90s, and the leading oligarch when his Menatep Bank acquired Yukos (an oil and gas company). His assets were estimated to lie in the region of $50 billion. His oppositional political activity led to the confiscation of Yukos by the state, and Khodorkovsky’s imprisonment in 2003. He was released in 2014, and the figure currently given for his wealth is $100, although I think the true figure should be several times greater, since this was only the amount released to him by an Irish bank after he left Russia, when he had several hundred million more – in any case, a tiny fraction of his assets in the early 2000s, so personal wealth is still dependent, ultimately on obedience to the rulers of post-Soviet Russia.

      2. Rocio, there is a difference between being lavish as a cost of doing business and being lavish as the end goal. The Soviets gave relatively nice housing to their Party officials to make the system work. I remember reading a biography of Stalin by Radzinsky, and to the best of my recollection, Stalin liked staying at some dacha that was relatively empty, slept in a rudimentary bed, wore the same basic clothing. Putin by contrast wears the best suits, and has one of the more expensive yacht and mansions in the entire world. That’s not a business expense he needs to keep Russia going, it’s a personal like, and his personal values. And I wonder if that signaled the Kremlin’s greater commitment to degen living over and above their tendency for wanton destruction and violence, and that’s why their army is doing so bad today. You know the funny thing is they may have done such a good job confusing the world in 1991 with their games they confused themselves as well. It may be hard for people to be ideologically committed to a task they lie about and only half speak.

  46. The Kerch Bridge attack and various Ukrainian offensives have failed to be critically disruptive and Russia still appears to be in the driver’s seat. The Ukraine military is already at the peak of its manpower, but Russia is adding to it’s own forces.

    When winter comes and it starts to freeze, the patient Putin will be able to destroy the country’s electrical system, driving the populace into cold-challenged Europe and depriving the Ukrainian army of its supporting civilian infrastructure. And that will be the end of Ukraine.

    It didn’t need to turn out like this, but NATO is only concerned with harming Russia, even to the point of breaking it up for easier resource exploitation, and has no real concern for Ukraine or it’s cannon fodder soldiers.

      1. It’s interesting to look back at Obama’s comments about Ukraine in 2016 since he’s the one pulling Biden’s puppet strings:

        “Obama’s theory here is simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there.

        “The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-nato country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do,” he said.

        I asked Obama whether his position on Ukraine was realistic or fatalistic.

        “It’s realistic,” he said. “But this is an example of where we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for.”

        https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/#3

      2. Of course, we should not go to war over Ukraine. America must avoid a direct conflict with Russia if possible. But Obama’s formula needs to be reciprocal. Is Russia offering up Cuba and Venezuela in exchange for Ukraine? Fair is fair. (I would not barter away a country, but Obama wants to give it up on supposed realist grounds WITHOUT bartering — and I ask what kind of deal this is? Not one America should embrace.) Question: Why is Ukraine a vital interest for Russia to rightly invade while we must keep our hands off Cuba and Venezuela? This is crude political reasoning, but it is Obama’s reasoning that leads us to ask at all. And why not press Obama for consistency? Is not Cuba and Venezuela our vital interest? Have we repudiated a mainstay of American foreign policy since John Quincy Adams was Secretary of State? — that is, the Monroe Doctrine, formulated by Adams? Is this unknown to Obama? Or does he simply read from Moscow’s script? Why is Obama so ready to restore Russia’s hegemonic rights to Ukraine and no attention is given to America’s role as a defender of the Western Hemisphere? It seems like another one of Obama’s hypocrisies — a one way street where Russia (and China) gets the advantage. All the same, America supporting Ukraine’s independence by extending loans or selling/giving weapons does not require war. Again, look to Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Hostile nations, very close to our shores, regularly acquire Russian weapons without calls on our side for invasion. In fact, there are Russian troops in Venezuela last I checked. And Moscow has agreed to send troops to Nicaragua. Who is advocating military measures against these states? So far, I see no American troops operating in Ukraine — yet Russia plays the victim and we must turn a blind eye to Russia’s doings in Latin America. For all this want of symmetry, America has not invaded or threatened to invade Cuba because of Russian support for the island. Is Cuba a vital interest to America and not Russia? What is “sauce for the goose,” as they say, “is sauce for the gander.” Obama is and was a Russian shill. This is just one more proof of it. He should have been investigated for ties to Russia, far more than Trump.

      3. “Obama is and was a Russian shill. This is just one more proof of it. He should have been investigated for ties to Russia, far more than Trump.”

        I totally agree! Especially after the “hot mic” moment where he said “after my election I have more flexibility.” Medvedev said he would let Putin know.

        The Democrats are always accusing the Republicans of what they themselves are doing.

      4. No, it’s basically a recent scenario from one Jacob Dreizin, ex-U.S. Army, born in Russia, and a self-styled “student of Russia”.

        And yes, Ukraine would then “get a say”, but from a relatively weakened position with respect to Russian forces.

    2. Who’s doing more damage to Russia than the Kremlin establishment and Putin? The whole story of those countless young men who are fleeing Russia, what will this do to the country in the long term? Who’s going to keep the country moving after losing so many healthy young males? Maybe those who are fleeing are a small dent in the population, but this chaos that is caused by Putin’s invasion (that can’t be called an invasion on threats of repercussions for wrongthink), recruitment centers being set on fire, army recruiters being shot, FSB agents being shot by disgruntled soldiers, all this insanity is going to have bad consequences for the average Russian, in more ways than just mere economical sanctions coming from abroad, the KGB folk are imploding the country.

    3. Ukraine is not at the peak of its military manpower. She has had so many volunteers, she has not had to draft anyone last spring, or this fall. Ukraine is increasing its manpower.

      Russia is providing cannon fodder, not Ukraine. Russia has already had casualties wildly exceeding the losses of Afghanistan. Most of those losses tend to fall on “Great Russians” and nationalities, not central Russians.

      1. My military loss data shows an estimated 6-to-1 ratio in favor of Russia. Also, Ukraine was drafting old men, and even women. Didn’t the Ukrainian young men mostly leave the country at the beginning of hostilities?

        At one point, Russian artillery was firing as much as 70,000 rounds in one day in the Donbas, which presumably decimated the highly-trained, original, experienced fighters. I remember stories about Western volunteers who simply fled after one or two days of such a relentlessly unbearable experience.

        Still, I can’t deny that the war somehow continues, so I really don’t know what to think about Ukrainian manpower except that it’s sufficient to challenge Russian confidence.

      2. Pondering: The Ukrainians outnumber the Russians in the theater of operations more than two to one. Perhaps three and a half to one now. I do not know where you get your skewed data, but I believe you are using Russian propaganda outlets.

  47. Regarding your religious beliefs, I see that you, Jeff, are a preterist.Please stick to your research of the global situations only. You seemed to REALLY want to get your version of Christian beliefs off Your chest, once and for all.You can’t be right about everything, Jeff. I do think that You believe that, though…

    1. Joshua: Nobody is right about everything, especially me, and also you. But when I quote thinkers greater than myself, and men of learning greater than either of us, you ought to show a little more respect. If you disagree with something, you are obligated to explain why. Take the effort to honestly say something true and meaningful. For if someone spends time baking you a cake from scratch, it is bad manners to reciprocate with a tootsie roll. In other words, write something as thoughtful, and as self-reflective, as what they wrote for you. A statement for discussion is a gift. It is a kindness. So how do you requite this kindness? By rudely insinuating that the other person has not given the subject the thought it deserves because his expertise lies elsewhere. But Joshua, it was not my analysis you are reacting to, but the analysis of St. Augustine, Michael Franz, and Eric Voegelin. It is a cheap shot to dismiss these three men by referring to my fallibility. Can we leave me out of it? Please? On this site I’d like to avoid inflicting poorly thought-out views on my readers, hoping my readers will present their best thoughts to me. And that means it is not about me or you. It is about the subject at hand. To avoid offensive name-calling between Christians — which has erupted on this site in the past — I have asked that people not engage in arguments about scripture or religious doctrine. But now I see that my request is never going to be respected. Please note: Every time a reader breaks my rule, it is an offense to me. Do I delete their comment and offend THEM? What do I do? Every time my rule is broken it is like being slapped in the face. Do I allow people to keep slapping me? Every article I write, regardless of the subject matter, someone here insists on dragging Revelation into it, and making it about the End of Days. Very sorry to say, but I have not written a commentary on the Book of Revelation. I do not want anyone to think I endorse specific interpretations of that book (and many first-time readers may get the wrong idea if I keep silent). So let me be clear. I do not want to offend anybody; but my writings are not intended as book ends for other people’s Apocalypticism. If I believed in what you believe about history and the present times I would be writing Bible Prophecy books. But I am not. If you want to say my views are poorly considered, go right ahead; but my views on this are taken directly from St. Augustine, Professors Voegelin and Franz. It would be wonderful indeed, if you could intelligently refute these great minds. But you did not do so because you probably cannot. So you struck at me, instead. And I beg you: Please do not allow my errors to reflect poorly on THEM. Furthermore, no rational person should be offended by the truth — if truth it be. And if the truth is an open question let us only send out our best thoughts. What offends me, to be honest, are invalid arguments, counter-factual narratives, and lazy thinking. I am the one who warned people off this subject, hoping I would never have to venture here. But now I see that everything is of a piece. I either become fodder for Hal Lindsey, or I refuse. So pardon me if I am tired of being slapped in the face. I am the one who did not want this discussion.

      1. So often we take great pains to write as succinctly as possible in consideration of the readers’ time. Sometimes such prose inevitably becomes a bit lengthy, but whether long or short, it still takes time to distil down into as brief as possible a reflective response.

        Then you come along and ham handedly delete it.

      2. Lenyard: Yes, I delete you, as you are so personally insulting, and write so much nonsense so quickly that deletion is the only appropriate response. I think I have deleted 20 posts from you. Get off my site, Lanyard, you are not welcome here. Go amuse yourself by harassing someone else.

      3. I think the goal is to frustrate you so completely that you’ll quit. Thank you for not letting them win!

      6. Yes, please delete them. So many times I have to bite my tongue to keep from responding, and sometimes I don’t bite hard enough. They’re a slap in your face, and an offense to deep scholarship that requires knowledge of Biblical languages and Biblical ways of saying things. This site discusses present threats and situations.

      7. I am new to your blog and do appreciate You. I was very pre emptive with some anger expressed. I do apologize. I know that You encourage the thinking man (woman) to come out and have proper discussions.I see multiple viewpoints on Christian doctrine, and I should respectfully disagree rather than antagonize. Once again,vJeff, I do apologize. In Christ I do repent.

  48. Off topic, but about infrastructure. There was a power outage on Bornholm, Denmark this morning. Unlikely to be sabotage but something broke in the infrastructure on the island, and thus the cable was disconnected on the swedish side. Power is now on again. But, this makes me think. Here in Sweden there are several cables to the continent, Denmark, Germany, Poland and the baltic states. Norway has one to Great Britain. The cable between Sweden and Poland crossed Nord Stream very close to the leaks, but was not damaged. There’s also cables crisscrossing borders all over Europe. All of it very vulnerable, especially at chokepoints. If several go down simultaneously that can potentially cause a massive power outage. Germany being especially vulnerable. I wonder what measures have been taken to protect the grid, if any. Apart from fences and camera surveillance.

  49. Putin responds….

    “Russia Launches Large-Scale Strikes On 20 Ukrainian Cities”

    At least 100 strikes were carried out, with many cruise missiles launched from Russian warships in the Black Sea. Putin in a televised announcement said he ordered attacks on military, energy, and communications targets specifically in response to the Crimea bridge attack.

    “If attempts to carry out terrorist attacks continue, Russia’s response will be severe and at the level of the threats facing it. Nobody should be in any doubt,” Putin warned.

    1. “The first episode is over. There will be others… I will express my personal position… The Ukrainian state in its current configuration with the Nazi political regime will pose a constant, direct and clear threat to Russia. Therefore, in addition to protecting our people and protecting the country’s borders, the goal of our future actions … should be a complete dismantling of the political regime of Ukraine,” Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel.

    2. Russian attacks on civilian targets won’t change outcome of this war | Lawrence Freedman
      Times Radio 10/10/22
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo4zCHtu6jQ

      – Freedman makes an interesting point, that Russia is wasting cruise missiles and precision weapons on a petulant revenge attack against civilians. Russia’s stock of these weapons is already low and it has not been using them with same intensity as at the start of the war because Ukraine has destroyed many depots.
      – While Russia has been wasting some its best weapons on indiscriminately targeting civilians, Ukraine has been using its long-range weapons with much better effect in striking at militarily relevant targets.
      – Because of sanctions Russia cannot so easily manufacture more precision weapons, hence why they are buying Iranian drones (I’ve read in other places that these drones contain US-made chips and Chinese-made components, just another reason why the West needs to completely stop doing business with China)

      1. As military strategy goes, the Russian top leadership has made bad decisions every step of the way. This is probably not going to change.

      2. It was definitely a knee-jerk reaction out of anger. A “show of force” to try and make Putin feel better. I read yesterday that the construction contractor of the bridge was a childhood friend of his.

        As for China, after Friday’s new restrictions on technology exports, this is what is being said:

        “The two countries are now officially in an “economic war,” Dylan Patel, chief analyst at SemiAnalysis, said. A Chinese analyst said there is “no possibility of reconciliation” any longer.”

    3. The stupid western leftists who were gloating that Russia was losing so not know the levels and the weaponry, the death that Russia is willing to inflict. They have not even begun to fight.

      And what will the West do? The sanctions are already done. Russia can brutalize Ukraine with missiles. They haven’t even dropped thermonaric or nuclear ones yet. And what can the West do, especially this winter? Short of NATO or America bombing Russia directly, nothing.

      And if they do attack Russia directly, Russia has casus belli for a nuclear attack on the West. All paths are thought out.

      1. Unfortunately, I think there is more “shock and awe” to come. Buckle up!

    1. Interesting that the Russian media has now fingered a second Muslim man as the suicide bomber behind the Kerch attack. They are intent on going with the Islamic terrorist angle and tying Ukraine’s special forces to it, probably as a way of smearing Ukraine and shoring up domestic support for the war. By echoing the Chechen war narrative they are going back to what worked before, and this angle also plays well to conservatives who are wary of growing Islamic power in the West.

      1. Laura: Yes. The Russian authorities want to find a theme that appeals to the Russian people. You may be right. They call the Ukrainian Nazis, and now they link them to Islamic terrorism.

      2. Yes, JewNazi Ukraine is now bandying together with Islamic terrorists. Makes sense.

  51. Perhaps I missed this earlier in the year, but I can’t remember Jeff or any commenters mentioning it.

    It seems that major lithium deposits were recently discovered in the Donbas area of Ukraine. A Chinese and an Australian lithium mining company both signaled their interest in November of 2021. There was an official announcement of the find in mid-February of this year, just before the invasion (although Putin presumably knew of the matter prior to the Chinese bid).

    Were Ukraine to regain full and reliable control of its Eastern regions, this would be a great boost to the EU’s planned switch from gas-driven to electrical motor vehicles (!).

    Were Russia to retain control, this would help Russia/China to cut off the West from lithium, or to provide it only to countries that are obedient.

    As a further complication, over 90% of the processing (not mining) of lithium is carried out in China, because the process is highly polluting and excluded by the environmental regulations of, among others, the EU (of course, free-market entrepreneurship could develop technologies to minimise the pollution, but since when was the EU interested in free-market solutions?). This is another example of “environmentalist” politics being used to give China a global advantage, but it may yet be reversed if China’s little helpers in Europe begin to break away (that’s a matter that Jean Robin could judge better).

    My initial source is this:

    https://economic-times.co.uk/news/ukraine-huge-lithium-deposits-found-just-before-invasion/

    This publication, unfortunately, is full of forebodings about the dark forces of “Brexiteers” and “climate deniers”, but article about Donbas lithium deposits seems to contain factual matter worth following up.

    The opening sentence, by the way, seems to contain a strange error, referring to “the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, located in Brighton UK”, whereas both the institution of that name, and a smaller, similarly named organisation are located (as you might expect) in Ukraine, and I can see know evidenced that either has a laboratory or office in the UK.

  52. Pingback: L’attaque du Pont de Crimée – ANTI PCC

  53. Hi Jeff. You mentioned in one of your earlier comments a book about the Maidan revolution. You mentioned it as one of the best researched books. Since I can’t find the title anymore and I would like to read it, could you please tell me again the author and title of the book? Thank you very much.

  54. From Amir Tsarfati’s Telegram channel this morning:

    “The new Russian commander for the Ukrainian front said: the Ukrainians didn’t start their morning with coffee!”

    “As I reported here earlier – Putin’s appointment of this general wasn’t a random one. He is known as vicious and cruel mostly towards civilian populations. He was the butcher in Syria and he is definitely doing the same in Ukraine in the past 48 hours.”

    Pictures on his channel very sad of Ukrainian bombing aftermath.

    1. This is why I’ve never understood the leftist gloating over how Putin was “losing” the war. Russia has not even begun to plumb the depths of their depravity. What can the West do this winter? Nothing short of a direct attack on Russia, which Russia is probably fine with, as it gives them the green light to do that which they are going to do anyways.

  55. Between theory and truth lie many questions awaiting answers. As an observer, I can only speculate on cause and effect regarding the world situation. It is certainly beneficial to have a working background in many fields of study. I don’t qualify in that regard. My opinions and observations are simply mine and are open to rebuttal from which I might actually learn.

    In the beginning, it wasn’t the fear of strangers that inspired conflict. It was the anger over how they interacted. Tribes seeking the resources necessary for survival were protective of their territory much like animals until the advent of trade allowed for a modicum of civility. Then came greed and a quest for control in a sparsely populated world as though only a few were privileged enough to benefit. And, while it might be said that war was the stimulus that led to innovation and progress, it was also the cause of destruction and slavery.

    Fast forward to today. As I see it, the world is still governed by a quest for control of resources be they animal, vegetable or mineral. The struggle is between three great powers with apron-tie hangers on – Anglo, Oriental and Slavic. Every country has been colonized at some point throughout history. To lay blame on any one country would be stretching the issue. Certainly, such expansion was often fraught with ruthless disregard for those being invaded. China is a relative latecomer to the game.

    Of late, Communism has permeated the halls of power throughout the world. With the exception of Russia and the hard core orient, it is subject to interpretation based on the cultural background of each society. Governments are, and always have been, self-serving entities. There is no one ruling power less evil than another. Evil by any other name is still evil. Everything we see is a chess game. Everyone belongs to the same club beset with squabbles over who will the champion.

    Pick whatever theory you desire as to why the world is crumbling. It doesn’t matter. The reality is that everyone is playing by the same rules in a game of last man standing. And the rules are there are no rules. We little people do not count. But we don’t have to accept our plight without a fight. And, that’s where we are failing.

    1. People won’t fight if they don’t recognize a threat. In the U.S., people aren’t informed about corruption and usurpation of power because the MSM is complicit. So people literally don’t realize that there are global predators and that they are the prey. The Press was supposed to one of the Checks and Balances, but is now basically a propaganda arm of the current government.

  56. Jeff,
    I just got the last copy of Red Carpet by Joseph Finder on Amazon. Very much looking forward to reading. Thanks for the recommendation.

  57. Also I have a question, given what we have seen the Russians do in Ukraine, how would you revise your evaluation of the Russian military?

    1. Jeff can answer for himself, but from my study of military history, I’ve never had a high opinion of the Russian Military. Under Stalin they suffered 11-12 million combat deaths. That is not a sign of a good Army in any case. They beat the Finns by choking them on Russian blood, and did the same with the Germans. Between the war and the terror, Suvarov stated that demographers said Russia was missing 100 million people. Peter Zeihan has showed charts showing the demographic crashes caused by the war. Russia has never recovered from it.

      Russia can not fight the kind of war Stalin did. He does not have the population for it. If he continues on the path he is on, he will do nothing more than destroy the demographic future of Russia faster than it is declining by natural forces. All he is doing now is preparing more cannon fodder to go to their deaths. The Ukrainians have already chewed up much of Russia’s best troops. Just watching how tank formations move, it is clear they are poorly trained.

      2. Russia doesn’t seem to be too concerned about declining population. I just watched an interview with Tim Kirby, an American expatriate in Russia. He said it’s *exceedingly* difficult to immigrate to Russia, although a tourist visa is no problem. (You need to enter through one of the southern countries such as Turkey, etc. that are not part of the sanctions bloc.)

        Note: You must arrive with 100% cash (no limit) to cover expenses, but can leave with only $10,000 maximum. Credit cards won’t work.

      3. Yes, not deploying troops to screen for the tanks is suicide for an armored force.
        Perhaps Putin is “ahead of the game” on the de-pop agenda.
        Real combat will be strike/counter strike with tactical WMD, chem, nuke, and bio.
        Of course you have to wonder about Russian competence there, perhaps they plan on running the whole show from the war-room under the Kremlin and/or one of the mountain covered retreats.
        The late Peter Pry said we desperately need to deploy two thousand plus nukes to the US Navy, and I feel even in the short term he will be proved to be correct.

      4. Their military victory doesn’t have to rely on good soldiers – just overwhelming death from their rocket forces.

      5. But you have to have an army to occupy the enemy and defeat his shattered forces (remaining after nuclear attacks). I am not sure Russia has a force capable of doing that if mroe troops are lost in Ukraine. At some point an army loses its self-confidence. It ceases to function like an army.

      6. Jeff, you are right, the Russians will need to have an intact army to occupy and “mop up” a defeated enemy. Yet a World War II documentary (I’ve forgotten which one) mentioned that mopping up was often more dangerous than the main battle where the main enemy force was defeated. Do the Russians have enough troops to mop up their victories they need in order to take over NATO? Sweden already told its people never to surrender. What will happen in other countries?

        And the biggest prize is the U.S., presently with the third largest population of all countries in the world. Nuclear weapons are effective only against concentrated and/or high value targets. That means several of our largest cities will be hit along with military targets. But do the Russians and Chinese have enough troops to subdue the many small targets like Muleshoe, Texas where half the U.S. population lives? And we are armed, unlike many other countries. Does not a map of the 2020 elections, showing the counties won by Trump, give an indication of the troubles any enemy occupying force would face?

        The Russians and Chinese must be successful in their mopping up of the U.S., or they will lose the war. If they lose, and I think the odds are that they will lose, how will it affect morale within their own countries? Will the Chinese people finally revolt against the CCP? Will Russia be largely depopulated? The thought is too terrible to continue. Other than to say that if we defeat their invasion, we will counterattack.

    2. The Russian military of today has more serious problems than the Soviet military of Stalin’s time. In fact, it has all the old Soviet problems without the numerical depth or effective discipline. It is clear that discipline has broken down. It is also clear that the numbers are not there. Without Stalin sitting atop the system, butchering anyone who gets out of line, everyone turns rascal. Stalin even said to his minions: “You are blind kittens.” History now shows us that Stalin knew his business. His successors are, indeed, blind kittens. And Ukraine is on its way to drowning them.

  58. Any insights to be gleaned if we put the pipeline and bridge attacks, plus retaliation and rhetoric from Moscow, alongside the CCP’s 20th Party Parliament starting this Sunday?

    I recently re-watched Nyquist’s June interview with Seth (Man in American), noting the China’s Nov. 1 deadline to launch an attack. It definitely seems like pieces are being moved on the board.

    I agree with Perseus that the sequence of moves seems to be orchestrated to establish the United States/NATO as the aggressor or at least provocateur. The narrative is being laid so methodically, it seems that placing blame must be strategically essential. But if the goal is all-out attack on America, the triggering event would seem to have to be bigger than we’ve seen so far. We still seem several steps or escalations away from justification for an all out coordinated attack on North America. The weeks are closing on November 1. What will happen between now and then?

    1. There is no limit to how many attacks they can stage on themselves. Already look at the West’s confusion regarding the Nordstream bombing and the bridge bombing. Every time, they use it to establish guilt in Western citizens minds. There is a pace and a tempo to their play. Communists are nothing if not expert stage-masters. All their lives is staging one massive show after another.

      If November 1 is the date, we should expect these “mystery attacks” to increase. Already, Russia is using the bridge attack to brutalize Ukraine more. Ukraine is “shocked”, headlines say. I have no idea why. I have never bought the idea that Russia has lost or was losing at all. Communists start with the goal of attacking and destroying you, and then spend 95% of their time staging the introductory show to convince people it just organically happened. I already see this working shockingly well on Americans. If Russia bombed their own city, I could easily see Americans blaming the West and NATO for it.

      We are in very dangerous waters. The pace of these “attacks” and whether they continue will give us more clues as to the timeline.

      1. We have to be careful about making assumptions about Russian strategy. We know they are allied with China. We know what their long term intentions are. We know what agreements were put in place more than thirty years ago. But right now, from all appearances, Russia is making serial blunders. And these are real blunders. It is inconceivable blunders of this type — blunders on the battlefield — are committed on purpose. Nobody wants to lose a battle or suffer a repulse during an invasion. Too much is at stake. What is uncertain is the actual mobilization capabilities of Russia and the nuclear capabilities, and the strategy advantages that may be exploited from an unintended defeat in Ukraine. Then you have to factor in politics in Russia and abroad. There is also the economic war that is unfolding. on the last point, I do not think Russia could afford to bomb their own city with a nuclear weapon. First, you have to order nuclear forces to conduct the attack. They might refuse and expose you. Second, you are destroying your own countrys morale and feeling of security. It is too risky under the present circumstances to follow such a strategy.

  59. Say what???? Jeff, do you think this just propaganda?

    Recent North Korean Missile Tests Involved ‘Tactical Nukes’: State Media

    State mouthpiece Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un personally guided the launches, which involved loading tactical nuclear warheads at a silo.

    The recent tactical nuclear drills have demonstrated that North Korea’s nuclear combat forces are “fully prepared to hit and destroy targets at any time from any designated location,” according to the report.

    “Various types of tactical ballistic missiles launched on Sept. 29 and Oct. 1 hit the targets with the combination of air explosion and direct precision and dispersion strike, proving the accuracy of our weapon systems,” KCNA stated.

    1. I have not heard from any military sources about the North Korean tests. It is possible they have the capability. The Russians are good teachers when it comes to missiles and nuclear warheads.

      1. This is what the Associated Press is saying this morning:

        SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s recent barrage of missile launches were the simulated use of its tactical battlefield nuclear weapons to “hit and wipe out” potential South Korean and U.S. targets, state media reported Monday, as its leader Kim Jong Un signaled he would conduct more provocative tests.

        The North’s statement, released on the 77th birthday of its ruling Workers’ Party, is seen as an attempt to burnish Kim’s image as a strong leader at home amid pandemic-related hardships as he’s defiantly pushing to enlarge his weapons arsenal to wrest greater concessions from its rivals in future negotiations.

  60. The Overture has begun. Victor Suvorov spoke of this. The Russian sabotage of their own infrastructure has now laid the groundwork for them to begin enemy operations on foreign soil without the enemy even realizing what is happening.

    Somebody with very “precise knowledge” of Germany’s rail system “intentionally severed” 2 communications cables 340 miles apart simultaneously.

    This is the first incident of sabotage on foreign soil that I am aware of. It indicates to me that the Overture, or I believe he called it “Grey Terror”, has begun. It also suggests to me that the surprise strike is not far away, a couple of months max. It also confirms what I thought, that Russia blew up the bridge. I know Jeff disagrees and I will respectfully disagree. I think they 100% blew up Nordstream.

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/10/10/more-infrastructure-sabotage-germany-hunts-culprits-of-cut-cables-that-brought-rail-network-to-knees/

    1. Russia blew up the bridge? Russia was behind the Nord Stream pipeline destruction? I do not know the answer to that. I have various reports from different sources.

      2. I do not think people who live in glass houses should throw stones. I do not approve of attacks on infrastructure, though bridges are an exception and always have been fair game in war. The pipeline attack was not wise. Whoever did it.

  61. So….who was responsible for taking down a portion of the bridge? Who was the driver of the truck that supposedly carried the explosives? What was his nationality? Did he survive, somehow? Was it really a Ukranian, or could it have been an agent-of-NATO plant? It is far beyond reason to believe it was a Russian agent. Now if it were proven to be a NATO-supplied agent, could we not expect that within two weeks we mught suddenly see one or two, say, key rail bridges over, say, the Rhine in Germany mysteriously go ka-boom!, followed by an awfully big ‘ker-plumk’ down into the dark river waters? Maybe not too likely, but it can’t be ruled out entirely. Surely Russia has special forces capable of pulling it off if they really want to?

      1. I don’t think they’re “quiet” about celebrating it. They even issued a postage stamp commemorating it!

  62. Maybe I’m missing it in the news, but the CCP has sure been quiet for a while here, as the world gapes at bridges and pipelines being blown up and now the big distraction of Russian pulverization of civilian targets in Ukraine. Russia front and center. What is the CCP doing back stage? Perhaps they’ve been openly busy too, and I’ve just missed it. Wondering if their Ro-Ro ships have disappeared like a big sub?

      1. @Jeff. Ok. Thank you!

        @Praying. Oh. I missed that. From what I have taken in online, I have had the sense the CCP has gone rather quiet and taken a backseat to Russia for now — particularly from their Taiwan blockade coverage, posturing etc. Thank you!

      2. Mtngal, yes they have been relatively quiet. We were talking about Ukraine celebrating the destruction of the bridge. 🙂 North Korea has been acting up, but China seems to have their hands full trying to control their own people.

  63. Jeff :

    Above, you say “the Russian energy weapon will be played”. Do you mean a nuclear weapon or some type of directed energy beam weapon ? Sorry if I am being dense.

    1. I believe Mr. Nyquist refered to Oil and Grain, two resources that may be used as a weapon to deprive the western economies.

    2. Russia is depriving Europe of energy in the form of natural gas. Oil and grain (fertilizer) are also weapons in the Russian economic arsenal.

  64. I doubt there is much celebrating going on now: 🙁

    “For a second day following Monday’s largest ever Russian wave of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, air raids sounded frequently in cities throughout the country. Thus far Tuesday has seen a dozen cities attacked, with energy infrastructure being a primary target. Energy facilities in the central Ukraine region of Dnipropetrovsk suffered “serious” damage by the latest Russian strikes, a day after President Vladimir Putin in a televised statement said he ordered attacks on military, energy, and communications targets specifically in response to the weekend Crimea bridge attack.

    The damage is already extensive enough that Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has called on Ukrainians to limit their electricity use. Describing that 11 important infrastructure facilities have been damaged in eight regions of Ukraine and Kyiv, Shmyhal announced, “We must be prepared for temporary disruptions of electricity, water supplies and communication.”

    1. The Russians hit hard, and Russian troops are now moving back into Belarus. Poland’s distribution of iodine pills and their advising their citizens to leave Belarus suggest they knew this deployment was coming and that nuclear weapons will be used when these troops head south for Ukraine.

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