It doesn’t surprise me at all that the Russians are concerned about [the] Kerch bridge. It’s incredibly important to them.

General Philip Breedlove

According to former supreme allied commander for Europe, Philip Breedlove, commenting last July, the Russians are “very worried about Ukraine launching an attack on the bridge.” And this morning, 8 October 2022, the day immediately following Vladimir Putin’s birthday, the bridge was attacked (supposedly by a truck bomb).

Breedlove made an additional comment: “There are discussions about how the West can respond if this happens. Several people I have spoken to say ‘dropping’ Kerch bridge would be a huge blow to Russia. Kerch bridge is a legitimate target.” Breelove also said, “Russia has invaded Ukraine and has launched attacks not just from inside Ukraine but also from Russia, Belarus, Crimea and the Black Sea, and have killed tens of thousands of people.”

In other words, Russia has it coming. But is such an attack strategically wise? Does it open the way to Russian nuclear escalation? Russian President V. Putin has said he would use “all the means at our disposal” to defend Russia’s conquests in Ukraine. The Russian leadership has also warned of dire consequences if the Kerch Strait bridge came under attack.

Posted 23 hours ago, prior to the bridge attack, a BBC interviewer asked V. Zelensky, “Mr. President, the Russians are accusing you of saying that you want the West to start preemptive — perhaps nuclear — strikes on Russia. Do you? Is that what you’ve been saying?”

Zelensky wagged his finger grimly, answering in English, “They begin to prepare their society. That is very dangerous. They are not ready to use it, but they begin to communicate….”

The interviewer interrupted the Ukrainian president: “What? You mean prepare society for using a nuclear weapons?”

Zelensky immediately responded, “You know, it’s — they don’t know if they will use or they will not use. I think it is dangerous even to speak about it. I said, ‘You have to … prevent kicks, not attacks,'” correcting the translation of his recent remarks to an Australian group this past week. “We are not terrorists, and we do not fight on another [country’s] territory. Even our attitude from our society — attitude to Russians after this — after all this invasion, after this eight years [of] war, eight years of bloody tragedy — even after this, [our] attitude to them, to [their] society, [is that] we are not ready to kill people like Russians do….”

Zelensky then restated his thesis: “I would like to say, that it is necessary to act, and I will return to pre-emptive sanctions again. It is necessary to act now. There is no need to think about the risks that will arise later. I agree that this is Armageddon, it’s a risk for the whole planet. But still, why do we have to think about whether it will happen or not, if Russia will take this step?”

As a marked man, facing death at Russian hands, Zelensky has decided to make a stand. If he does this, why should the world blink? The world is more powerful, and safer, than Zelensky. Therefore, he does not reflect on the West’s longstanding role as totalitarian collaborator. In fact, the West has lied to itself about the long-term consequences of its collaboration. And now Zelensky’s country is fighting for its independence from Moscow. Like Patrick Henry at the outset of the American Revolution, Zelensky is thinking of “liberty or death.” His country’s liberty is what matters. Death is not a problem worth thinking about.

When the BBC interviewer asked whether Zelensky thinks Putin is capable of launching a nuclear attack, the Ukrainian president replied, “If I say that he can use them, then this can cause panic in many countries, including Ukraine. All that Putin is afraid of … is his own community, his people, because only these people can remove him now, and take power away from him, and hand it to someone else….”

Asked if Putin will survive defeat, Zelensky said, “I don’t care.”

These answers were given in advance of the attack on the Kerch bridge. It is strange to think the Ukrainians were behind the attack. It is an escalation. Nobody can deny it is an escalation, even as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has accused President Zelensky of urging the West “to start another world war.”

As of this writing, an advisor to President Zelensky named Mikhail Podoliak has said the bridge attack is “the beginning.” Commenting in English on Twitter, he added, “Everything illegal must be destroyed, everything stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything occupied by Russia must be expelled.” In August Podoliak told The Guardian newspaper that the bridge was “an illegal construction and the main gateway to supply the Russian army in Crimea” and that “such objects should be destroyed.”

(For those with short memories, Crimea was Ukrainian territory invaded and annexed by Russia in 2014.)

In terms of the strategic sense of things, a number of general questions remain. Did a truck bomb actually damage the bridge, or is there another explanation? Are Putin’s minions turning against him, or is this itself a deception? Why do most experts believe Russia is out of men and weapons? (Something I do not understand.) Why is China preparing for war against the United States, as reported by Mr. Wang of Lude Media?

Watch Russia’s reaction over the next few hours and days. Watch closely.

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297 thoughts on “The Kerch Strait Bridge Attack

  1. Perhaps I missed this earlier in the year, but I can’t remember Jeff or any commenters mentioning it.

    It seems that major lithium deposits were recently discovered in the Donbas area of Ukraine. A Chinese and an Australian lithium mining company both signaled their interest in November of 2021. There was an official announcement of the find in mid-February of this year, just before the invasion (although Putin presumably knew of the matter prior to the Chinese bid).

    Were Ukraine to regain full and reliable control of its Eastern regions, this would be a great boost to the EU’s planned switch from gas-driven to electrical motor vehicles (!).

    Were Russia to retain control, this would help Russia/China to cut off the West from lithium, or to provide it only to countries that are obedient.

    As a further complication, over 90% of the processing (not mining) of lithium is carried out in China, because the process is highly polluting and excluded by the environmental regulations of, among others, the EU (of course, free-market entrepreneurship could develop technologies to minimise the pollution, but since when was the EU interested in free-market solutions?). This is another example of “environmentalist” politics being used to give China a global advantage, but it may yet be reversed if China’s little helpers in Europe begin to break away (that’s a matter that Jean Robin could judge better).

    My initial source is this:

    This publication, unfortunately, is full of forebodings about the dark forces of “Brexiteers” and “climate deniers”, but article about Donbas lithium deposits seems to contain factual matter worth following up.

    The opening sentence, by the way, seems to contain a strange error, referring to “the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, located in Brighton UK”, whereas both the institution of that name, and a smaller, similarly named organisation are located (as you might expect) in Ukraine, and I can see know evidenced that either has a laboratory or office in the UK.

  2. Hi Jeff. You mentioned in one of your earlier comments a book about the Maidan revolution. You mentioned it as one of the best researched books. Since I can’t find the title anymore and I would like to read it, could you please tell me again the author and title of the book? Thank you very much.

  3. From Amir Tsarfati’s Telegram channel this morning:

    “The new Russian commander for the Ukrainian front said: the Ukrainians didn’t start their morning with coffee!”

    “As I reported here earlier – Putin’s appointment of this general wasn’t a random one. He is known as vicious and cruel mostly towards civilian populations. He was the butcher in Syria and he is definitely doing the same in Ukraine in the past 48 hours.”

    Pictures on his channel very sad of Ukrainian bombing aftermath.

    1. This is why I’ve never understood the leftist gloating over how Putin was “losing” the war. Russia has not even begun to plumb the depths of their depravity. What can the West do this winter? Nothing short of a direct attack on Russia, which Russia is probably fine with, as it gives them the green light to do that which they are going to do anyways.

  4. Between theory and truth lie many questions awaiting answers. As an observer, I can only speculate on cause and effect regarding the world situation. It is certainly beneficial to have a working background in many fields of study. I don’t qualify in that regard. My opinions and observations are simply mine and are open to rebuttal from which I might actually learn.

    In the beginning, it wasn’t the fear of strangers that inspired conflict. It was the anger over how they interacted. Tribes seeking the resources necessary for survival were protective of their territory much like animals until the advent of trade allowed for a modicum of civility. Then came greed and a quest for control in a sparsely populated world as though only a few were privileged enough to benefit. And, while it might be said that war was the stimulus that led to innovation and progress, it was also the cause of destruction and slavery.

    Fast forward to today. As I see it, the world is still governed by a quest for control of resources be they animal, vegetable or mineral. The struggle is between three great powers with apron-tie hangers on – Anglo, Oriental and Slavic. Every country has been colonized at some point throughout history. To lay blame on any one country would be stretching the issue. Certainly, such expansion was often fraught with ruthless disregard for those being invaded. China is a relative latecomer to the game.

    Of late, Communism has permeated the halls of power throughout the world. With the exception of Russia and the hard core orient, it is subject to interpretation based on the cultural background of each society. Governments are, and always have been, self-serving entities. There is no one ruling power less evil than another. Evil by any other name is still evil. Everything we see is a chess game. Everyone belongs to the same club beset with squabbles over who will the champion.

    Pick whatever theory you desire as to why the world is crumbling. It doesn’t matter. The reality is that everyone is playing by the same rules in a game of last man standing. And the rules are there are no rules. We little people do not count. But we don’t have to accept our plight without a fight. And, that’s where we are failing.

    1. People won’t fight if they don’t recognize a threat. In the U.S., people aren’t informed about corruption and usurpation of power because the MSM is complicit. So people literally don’t realize that there are global predators and that they are the prey. The Press was supposed to one of the Checks and Balances, but is now basically a propaganda arm of the current government.

  5. Jeff,
    I just got the last copy of Red Carpet by Joseph Finder on Amazon. Very much looking forward to reading. Thanks for the recommendation.

  6. Also I have a question, given what we have seen the Russians do in Ukraine, how would you revise your evaluation of the Russian military?

    1. Jeff can answer for himself, but from my study of military history, I’ve never had a high opinion of the Russian Military. Under Stalin they suffered 11-12 million combat deaths. That is not a sign of a good Army in any case. They beat the Finns by choking them on Russian blood, and did the same with the Germans. Between the war and the terror, Suvarov stated that demographers said Russia was missing 100 million people. Peter Zeihan has showed charts showing the demographic crashes caused by the war. Russia has never recovered from it.

      Russia can not fight the kind of war Stalin did. He does not have the population for it. If he continues on the path he is on, he will do nothing more than destroy the demographic future of Russia faster than it is declining by natural forces. All he is doing now is preparing more cannon fodder to go to their deaths. The Ukrainians have already chewed up much of Russia’s best troops. Just watching how tank formations move, it is clear they are poorly trained.

      1. Russia doesn’t seem to be too concerned about declining population. I just watched an interview with Tim Kirby, an American expatriate in Russia. He said it’s *exceedingly* difficult to immigrate to Russia, although a tourist visa is no problem. (You need to enter through one of the southern countries such as Turkey, etc. that are not part of the sanctions bloc.)

        Note: You must arrive with 100% cash (no limit) to cover expenses, but can leave with only $10,000 maximum. Credit cards won’t work.

      2. Yes, not deploying troops to screen for the tanks is suicide for an armored force.
        Perhaps Putin is “ahead of the game” on the de-pop agenda.
        Real combat will be strike/counter strike with tactical WMD, chem, nuke, and bio.
        Of course you have to wonder about Russian competence there, perhaps they plan on running the whole show from the war-room under the Kremlin and/or one of the mountain covered retreats.
        The late Peter Pry said we desperately need to deploy two thousand plus nukes to the US Navy, and I feel even in the short term he will be proved to be correct.

      3. Their military victory doesn’t have to rely on good soldiers – just overwhelming death from their rocket forces.

      4. But you have to have an army to occupy the enemy and defeat his shattered forces (remaining after nuclear attacks). I am not sure Russia has a force capable of doing that if mroe troops are lost in Ukraine. At some point an army loses its self-confidence. It ceases to function like an army.

      5. Jeff, you are right, the Russians will need to have an intact army to occupy and “mop up” a defeated enemy. Yet a World War II documentary (I’ve forgotten which one) mentioned that mopping up was often more dangerous than the main battle where the main enemy force was defeated. Do the Russians have enough troops to mop up their victories they need in order to take over NATO? Sweden already told its people never to surrender. What will happen in other countries?

        And the biggest prize is the U.S., presently with the third largest population of all countries in the world. Nuclear weapons are effective only against concentrated and/or high value targets. That means several of our largest cities will be hit along with military targets. But do the Russians and Chinese have enough troops to subdue the many small targets like Muleshoe, Texas where half the U.S. population lives? And we are armed, unlike many other countries. Does not a map of the 2020 elections, showing the counties won by Trump, give an indication of the troubles any enemy occupying force would face?

        The Russians and Chinese must be successful in their mopping up of the U.S., or they will lose the war. If they lose, and I think the odds are that they will lose, how will it affect morale within their own countries? Will the Chinese people finally revolt against the CCP? Will Russia be largely depopulated? The thought is too terrible to continue. Other than to say that if we defeat their invasion, we will counterattack.

    2. The Russian military of today has more serious problems than the Soviet military of Stalin’s time. In fact, it has all the old Soviet problems without the numerical depth or effective discipline. It is clear that discipline has broken down. It is also clear that the numbers are not there. Without Stalin sitting atop the system, butchering anyone who gets out of line, everyone turns rascal. Stalin even said to his minions: “You are blind kittens.” History now shows us that Stalin knew his business. His successors are, indeed, blind kittens. And Ukraine is on its way to drowning them.

  7. Any insights to be gleaned if we put the pipeline and bridge attacks, plus retaliation and rhetoric from Moscow, alongside the CCP’s 20th Party Parliament starting this Sunday?

    I recently re-watched Nyquist’s June interview with Seth (Man in American), noting the China’s Nov. 1 deadline to launch an attack. It definitely seems like pieces are being moved on the board.

    I agree with Perseus that the sequence of moves seems to be orchestrated to establish the United States/NATO as the aggressor or at least provocateur. The narrative is being laid so methodically, it seems that placing blame must be strategically essential. But if the goal is all-out attack on America, the triggering event would seem to have to be bigger than we’ve seen so far. We still seem several steps or escalations away from justification for an all out coordinated attack on North America. The weeks are closing on November 1. What will happen between now and then?

    1. There is no limit to how many attacks they can stage on themselves. Already look at the West’s confusion regarding the Nordstream bombing and the bridge bombing. Every time, they use it to establish guilt in Western citizens minds. There is a pace and a tempo to their play. Communists are nothing if not expert stage-masters. All their lives is staging one massive show after another.

      If November 1 is the date, we should expect these “mystery attacks” to increase. Already, Russia is using the bridge attack to brutalize Ukraine more. Ukraine is “shocked”, headlines say. I have no idea why. I have never bought the idea that Russia has lost or was losing at all. Communists start with the goal of attacking and destroying you, and then spend 95% of their time staging the introductory show to convince people it just organically happened. I already see this working shockingly well on Americans. If Russia bombed their own city, I could easily see Americans blaming the West and NATO for it.

      We are in very dangerous waters. The pace of these “attacks” and whether they continue will give us more clues as to the timeline.

      1. We have to be careful about making assumptions about Russian strategy. We know they are allied with China. We know what their long term intentions are. We know what agreements were put in place more than thirty years ago. But right now, from all appearances, Russia is making serial blunders. And these are real blunders. It is inconceivable blunders of this type — blunders on the battlefield — are committed on purpose. Nobody wants to lose a battle or suffer a repulse during an invasion. Too much is at stake. What is uncertain is the actual mobilization capabilities of Russia and the nuclear capabilities, and the strategy advantages that may be exploited from an unintended defeat in Ukraine. Then you have to factor in politics in Russia and abroad. There is also the economic war that is unfolding. on the last point, I do not think Russia could afford to bomb their own city with a nuclear weapon. First, you have to order nuclear forces to conduct the attack. They might refuse and expose you. Second, you are destroying your own countrys morale and feeling of security. It is too risky under the present circumstances to follow such a strategy.

  8. Say what???? Jeff, do you think this just propaganda?

    Recent North Korean Missile Tests Involved ‘Tactical Nukes’: State Media

    State mouthpiece Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un personally guided the launches, which involved loading tactical nuclear warheads at a silo.

    The recent tactical nuclear drills have demonstrated that North Korea’s nuclear combat forces are “fully prepared to hit and destroy targets at any time from any designated location,” according to the report.

    “Various types of tactical ballistic missiles launched on Sept. 29 and Oct. 1 hit the targets with the combination of air explosion and direct precision and dispersion strike, proving the accuracy of our weapon systems,” KCNA stated.

    1. I have not heard from any military sources about the North Korean tests. It is possible they have the capability. The Russians are good teachers when it comes to missiles and nuclear warheads.

      1. This is what the Associated Press is saying this morning:

        SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s recent barrage of missile launches were the simulated use of its tactical battlefield nuclear weapons to “hit and wipe out” potential South Korean and U.S. targets, state media reported Monday, as its leader Kim Jong Un signaled he would conduct more provocative tests.

        The North’s statement, released on the 77th birthday of its ruling Workers’ Party, is seen as an attempt to burnish Kim’s image as a strong leader at home amid pandemic-related hardships as he’s defiantly pushing to enlarge his weapons arsenal to wrest greater concessions from its rivals in future negotiations.

  9. The Overture has begun. Victor Suvorov spoke of this. The Russian sabotage of their own infrastructure has now laid the groundwork for them to begin enemy operations on foreign soil without the enemy even realizing what is happening.

    Somebody with very “precise knowledge” of Germany’s rail system “intentionally severed” 2 communications cables 340 miles apart simultaneously.

    This is the first incident of sabotage on foreign soil that I am aware of. It indicates to me that the Overture, or I believe he called it “Grey Terror”, has begun. It also suggests to me that the surprise strike is not far away, a couple of months max. It also confirms what I thought, that Russia blew up the bridge. I know Jeff disagrees and I will respectfully disagree. I think they 100% blew up Nordstream.

    1. Russia blew up the bridge? Russia was behind the Nord Stream pipeline destruction? I do not know the answer to that. I have various reports from different sources.

      1. I do not think people who live in glass houses should throw stones. I do not approve of attacks on infrastructure, though bridges are an exception and always have been fair game in war. The pipeline attack was not wise. Whoever did it.

  10. So….who was responsible for taking down a portion of the bridge? Who was the driver of the truck that supposedly carried the explosives? What was his nationality? Did he survive, somehow? Was it really a Ukranian, or could it have been an agent-of-NATO plant? It is far beyond reason to believe it was a Russian agent. Now if it were proven to be a NATO-supplied agent, could we not expect that within two weeks we mught suddenly see one or two, say, key rail bridges over, say, the Rhine in Germany mysteriously go ka-boom!, followed by an awfully big ‘ker-plumk’ down into the dark river waters? Maybe not too likely, but it can’t be ruled out entirely. Surely Russia has special forces capable of pulling it off if they really want to?

      1. I don’t think they’re “quiet” about celebrating it. They even issued a postage stamp commemorating it!

  11. Maybe I’m missing it in the news, but the CCP has sure been quiet for a while here, as the world gapes at bridges and pipelines being blown up and now the big distraction of Russian pulverization of civilian targets in Ukraine. Russia front and center. What is the CCP doing back stage? Perhaps they’ve been openly busy too, and I’ve just missed it. Wondering if their Ro-Ro ships have disappeared like a big sub?

      1. @Jeff. Ok. Thank you!

        @Praying. Oh. I missed that. From what I have taken in online, I have had the sense the CCP has gone rather quiet and taken a backseat to Russia for now — particularly from their Taiwan blockade coverage, posturing etc. Thank you!

      2. Mtngal, yes they have been relatively quiet. We were talking about Ukraine celebrating the destruction of the bridge. 🙂 North Korea has been acting up, but China seems to have their hands full trying to control their own people.

  12. Jeff :

    Above, you say “the Russian energy weapon will be played”. Do you mean a nuclear weapon or some type of directed energy beam weapon ? Sorry if I am being dense.

    1. I believe Mr. Nyquist refered to Oil and Grain, two resources that may be used as a weapon to deprive the western economies.

    2. Russia is depriving Europe of energy in the form of natural gas. Oil and grain (fertilizer) are also weapons in the Russian economic arsenal.

  13. I doubt there is much celebrating going on now: 🙁

    “For a second day following Monday’s largest ever Russian wave of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, air raids sounded frequently in cities throughout the country. Thus far Tuesday has seen a dozen cities attacked, with energy infrastructure being a primary target. Energy facilities in the central Ukraine region of Dnipropetrovsk suffered “serious” damage by the latest Russian strikes, a day after President Vladimir Putin in a televised statement said he ordered attacks on military, energy, and communications targets specifically in response to the weekend Crimea bridge attack.

    The damage is already extensive enough that Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has called on Ukrainians to limit their electricity use. Describing that 11 important infrastructure facilities have been damaged in eight regions of Ukraine and Kyiv, Shmyhal announced, “We must be prepared for temporary disruptions of electricity, water supplies and communication.”

    1. The Russians hit hard, and Russian troops are now moving back into Belarus. Poland’s distribution of iodine pills and their advising their citizens to leave Belarus suggest they knew this deployment was coming and that nuclear weapons will be used when these troops head south for Ukraine.

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