It doesn’t surprise me at all that the Russians are concerned about [the] Kerch bridge. It’s incredibly important to them.
General Philip Breedlove
According to former supreme allied commander for Europe, Philip Breedlove, commenting last July, the Russians are “very worried about Ukraine launching an attack on the bridge.” And this morning, 8 October 2022, the day immediately following Vladimir Putin’s birthday, the bridge was attacked (supposedly by a truck bomb).
Breedlove made an additional comment: “There are discussions about how the West can respond if this happens. Several people I have spoken to say ‘dropping’ Kerch bridge would be a huge blow to Russia. Kerch bridge is a legitimate target.” Breelove also said, “Russia has invaded Ukraine and has launched attacks not just from inside Ukraine but also from Russia, Belarus, Crimea and the Black Sea, and have killed tens of thousands of people.”
In other words, Russia has it coming. But is such an attack strategically wise? Does it open the way to Russian nuclear escalation? Russian President V. Putin has said he would use “all the means at our disposal” to defend Russia’s conquests in Ukraine. The Russian leadership has also warned of dire consequences if the Kerch Strait bridge came under attack.
Posted 23 hours ago, prior to the bridge attack, a BBC interviewer asked V. Zelensky, “Mr. President, the Russians are accusing you of saying that you want the West to start preemptive — perhaps nuclear — strikes on Russia. Do you? Is that what you’ve been saying?”
Zelensky wagged his finger grimly, answering in English, “They begin to prepare their society. That is very dangerous. They are not ready to use it, but they begin to communicate….”
The interviewer interrupted the Ukrainian president: “What? You mean prepare society for using a nuclear weapons?”
Zelensky immediately responded, “You know, it’s — they don’t know if they will use or they will not use. I think it is dangerous even to speak about it. I said, ‘You have to … prevent kicks, not attacks,’” correcting the translation of his recent remarks to an Australian group this past week. “We are not terrorists, and we do not fight on another [country’s] territory. Even our attitude from our society — attitude to Russians after this — after all this invasion, after this eight years [of] war, eight years of bloody tragedy — even after this, [our] attitude to them, to [their] society, [is that] we are not ready to kill people like Russians do….”
Zelensky then restated his thesis: “I would like to say, that it is necessary to act, and I will return to pre-emptive sanctions again. It is necessary to act now. There is no need to think about the risks that will arise later. I agree that this is Armageddon, it’s a risk for the whole planet. But still, why do we have to think about whether it will happen or not, if Russia will take this step?”
As a marked man, facing death at Russian hands, Zelensky has decided to make a stand. If he does this, why should the world blink? The world is more powerful, and safer, than Zelensky. Therefore, he does not reflect on the West’s longstanding role as totalitarian collaborator. In fact, the West has lied to itself about the long-term consequences of its collaboration. And now Zelensky’s country is fighting for its independence from Moscow. Like Patrick Henry at the outset of the American Revolution, Zelensky is thinking of “liberty or death.” His country’s liberty is what matters. Death is not a problem worth thinking about.
When the BBC interviewer asked whether Zelensky thinks Putin is capable of launching a nuclear attack, the Ukrainian president replied, “If I say that he can use them, then this can cause panic in many countries, including Ukraine. All that Putin is afraid of … is his own community, his people, because only these people can remove him now, and take power away from him, and hand it to someone else….”
Asked if Putin will survive defeat, Zelensky said, “I don’t care.”
These answers were given in advance of the attack on the Kerch bridge. It is strange to think the Ukrainians were behind the attack. It is an escalation. Nobody can deny it is an escalation, even as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has accused President Zelensky of urging the West “to start another world war.”
As of this writing, an advisor to President Zelensky named Mikhail Podoliak has said the bridge attack is “the beginning.” Commenting in English on Twitter, he added, “Everything illegal must be destroyed, everything stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything occupied by Russia must be expelled.” In August Podoliak told The Guardian newspaper that the bridge was “an illegal construction and the main gateway to supply the Russian army in Crimea” and that “such objects should be destroyed.”
(For those with short memories, Crimea was Ukrainian territory invaded and annexed by Russia in 2014.)
In terms of the strategic sense of things, a number of general questions remain. Did a truck bomb actually damage the bridge, or is there another explanation? Are Putin’s minions turning against him, or is this itself a deception? Why do most experts believe Russia is out of men and weapons? (Something I do not understand.) Why is China preparing for war against the United States, as reported by Mr. Wang of Lude Media?
Watch Russia’s reaction over the next few hours and days. Watch closely.
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297 responses to “The Kerch Strait Bridge Attack”
Jeff, in a comment on a previous blog post you referred to an autobiographical account by Michael McFaul, where he mentioned meetings “with no witnesses” between Sergey Lavrov and Hillary Clinton, and Lavrov and John Kerry, which preceded the Obama administration’s pivot on Russia. Can this account be found in McFaul’s book, “From Cold War to Hot Peace,” or elsewhere?
Yes. McFaul’s account is described in that book. You got it. The Clinton meeting was very strange. She was tight-lipped about it. Would say nothing to McFaul and he was the US Ambassador to Russia,
John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov: Fatal attraction I
It was disturbing watching John’s bromance with Sergey deepen while Syria burned.
Marwan Bishara
Senior political analyst at Al Jazeera.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2016/8/26/john-kerry-and-sergey-lavrov-fatal-attraction-i/
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2016/8/29/john-kerry-and-sergey-lavrov-fatal-attraction-ii
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2016/8/29/john-kerry-and-sergey-lavrov-fatal-attraction-iii
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2016/9/5/john-kerry-and-sergey-lavrov-fatal-attraction-iv
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2016/9/5/john-kerry-and-sergey-lavrov-fatal-attraction-v
Putin is an atheist
This is a bit off topic. But, with all the brewing tensions everywhere, what percentage would people give we may experience energy “insecurity” here in the States this winter? I know we are not in the same supply pickle Europe is in with natural gas, as they are being told to plan to huddle in one room with blankets in Sweden and cutting down forests for green firewood to burn elsewhere. But, what percentage or rating (low, med, high) would you say we risk being taken off line or a potential hot war here, making energy supplies undependable, at best? Or do most feel energy costs will just be high but supplies sufficient?
Wood stoves. I’m worried. Reconfigure your house to make a small room that you cab heat.
Ok. Thank u. Been wondering if I’m going daft for having concerns. Normalcy bias still a battle despite seeing events unfold.
It’s a good idea to be prepared for disruptions just in case. We don’t ever expect our house to burn down, but we carry insurance to be on the safe side. The people in Texas were certainly surprised last winter by power outages. An alternative source of heat, some extra food and water, flashlights and candles…. always a good idea. Consider it insurance. 🙂 You truly never know what may be ahead.
Need to consider water, too. I’ve seen youtube videos on digging shallow wells (e.g., 20 feet), and it’s surprisingly easy if you have the right supplies, which I believe are still available. That said, I don’t know how common it is to have a high enough water table for it to work.
Natural gas in the United States, is so abundant that prior to the Covid Live Exercise, it was considered a waste byproduct. Producers were paying people to haul it away. It’s a simple matter to convert an internal combustion engine to run on propane. Along with a victory garden, it’s a good idea to buy a big, propane tank and a power generator converted to run on natural gas, to power the house as well as the car.
Thats Germany, not Sweden. We don’t use natural gas in Sweden for heating, generally. Most of the big heating plants heating the citys burn waste, wood chips and oil, and natural gas is mostly used complementary, if at all. Outside the big heating networks the houses tend to use electricity, directly or via some kind of heatpump, burning wood or oil.
And, the bigger heating plants are dual purpose, producing heat and electricity. Not a whole lot of electricity, but still.
More bridges being taken out now– along Belarus border.
https://sololaki.ru/ukraine-blows-up-border-bridges-with-belarus-minsk-rt-russia-former-soviet-union/
Talk about projection, a typical communist tactic—taking out bridges and mining one’s own side of the border are not preparations to invade, as Belarus claims, rather those actions are taken to defend against a possible invasion from Belarus. Belarussian complaints are signals that they plan to invade Ukraine and their complaint is that the Ukrainian actions are making it more difficult for that invasion. So they accuse the Ukrainians of doing what they themselves are planning on doing.
One difference between Putin, and Hitler/Stalin, is that Putin seems to enjoy a lavish lifestyle with insanely expensive mansions. By comparison both Hitler and Stalin were relatively ascetic. Please correct me if I’m wrong on that. I think a lot of Kremlin money does bleed out in lavish corruption compared with historic conquerors of the past. My personal feeling is that Russia is in disarray
@Dan A
Regarding the issue of Putin’s vs Stalin’s “lifestyles”, there was a Kremlin meeting in 1984 that made a decisive change. Previously, the nomenklatura enjoyed material privileges according to importance. Starting from 1984, the upper ranks of the nomenklatura shifted the Soviet Union’s “public” wealth into their own hands. This coincided with the puzzled observations of Western banks as they saw a massive outflow of capital from the Soviet Union.
We can deduce, on the basis of the Golitsyn scenario, that the nomenklatura knew that its controlled collapse of the Soviet Union in the 90s would have some unpredictable, chaotic results (which was indeed the case), and that they could only be sure of maintaining control in the end if they personally commanded the country’s wealth, and kept it in relative safety abroad.
Stalin himself lived in grand apartments within the Kremlin complex and there were frequent banquets where the political elite mixed with artists and other intellectuals. Stalin had a large income in foreign currency arising from sales of his published writings and speeches abroad, and he used the money to endow the “Stalin Prize”, awarded annually in the 40s and early 50s for high achievement in the arts, sciences and letters – a first class prize could exceed the lifetime income of an ordinary Soviet worker. Fine modern apartment blocks were constructed in the centre of Moscow and Leningrad for the nomenklatura and the cultural elite. The price of these privileges was, of course, obedience.
So the wealth of the Soviet and post-Soviet elites are difficult to compare, since the privileges of the former was largely independent of any personal wealth. Even then, we have the example of Khodorkovsky, the young Communist who was permitted to launch various business ventures in the 80s, under Gorbachev, becoming one of the so-called “oligarchs” (a misleading name) in the 90s, and the leading oligarch when his Menatep Bank acquired Yukos (an oil and gas company). His assets were estimated to lie in the region of $50 billion. His oppositional political activity led to the confiscation of Yukos by the state, and Khodorkovsky’s imprisonment in 2003. He was released in 2014, and the figure currently given for his wealth is $100, although I think the true figure should be several times greater, since this was only the amount released to him by an Irish bank after he left Russia, when he had several hundred million more – in any case, a tiny fraction of his assets in the early 2000s, so personal wealth is still dependent, ultimately on obedience to the rulers of post-Soviet Russia.
Good points about Soviet elite wealth.
Rocio, there is a difference between being lavish as a cost of doing business and being lavish as the end goal. The Soviets gave relatively nice housing to their Party officials to make the system work. I remember reading a biography of Stalin by Radzinsky, and to the best of my recollection, Stalin liked staying at some dacha that was relatively empty, slept in a rudimentary bed, wore the same basic clothing. Putin by contrast wears the best suits, and has one of the more expensive yacht and mansions in the entire world. That’s not a business expense he needs to keep Russia going, it’s a personal like, and his personal values. And I wonder if that signaled the Kremlin’s greater commitment to degen living over and above their tendency for wanton destruction and violence, and that’s why their army is doing so bad today. You know the funny thing is they may have done such a good job confusing the world in 1991 with their games they confused themselves as well. It may be hard for people to be ideologically committed to a task they lie about and only half speak.
The Kerch Bridge attack and various Ukrainian offensives have failed to be critically disruptive and Russia still appears to be in the driver’s seat. The Ukraine military is already at the peak of its manpower, but Russia is adding to it’s own forces.
When winter comes and it starts to freeze, the patient Putin will be able to destroy the country’s electrical system, driving the populace into cold-challenged Europe and depriving the Ukrainian army of its supporting civilian infrastructure. And that will be the end of Ukraine.
It didn’t need to turn out like this, but NATO is only concerned with harming Russia, even to the point of breaking it up for easier resource exploitation, and has no real concern for Ukraine or it’s cannon fodder soldiers.
Did you learn this at some NATO meeting where they eat children and pray to Hell? And I suppose Ukraine does not get a say.
It’s interesting to look back at Obama’s comments about Ukraine in 2016 since he’s the one pulling Biden’s puppet strings:
“Obama’s theory here is simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there.
“The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-nato country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do,” he said.
I asked Obama whether his position on Ukraine was realistic or fatalistic.
“It’s realistic,” he said. “But this is an example of where we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/#3
Of course, we should not go to war over Ukraine. America must avoid a direct conflict with Russia if possible. But Obama’s formula needs to be reciprocal. Is Russia offering up Cuba and Venezuela in exchange for Ukraine? Fair is fair. (I would not barter away a country, but Obama wants to give it up on supposed realist grounds WITHOUT bartering — and I ask what kind of deal this is? Not one America should embrace.) Question: Why is Ukraine a vital interest for Russia to rightly invade while we must keep our hands off Cuba and Venezuela? This is crude political reasoning, but it is Obama’s reasoning that leads us to ask at all. And why not press Obama for consistency? Is not Cuba and Venezuela our vital interest? Have we repudiated a mainstay of American foreign policy since John Quincy Adams was Secretary of State? — that is, the Monroe Doctrine, formulated by Adams? Is this unknown to Obama? Or does he simply read from Moscow’s script? Why is Obama so ready to restore Russia’s hegemonic rights to Ukraine and no attention is given to America’s role as a defender of the Western Hemisphere? It seems like another one of Obama’s hypocrisies — a one way street where Russia (and China) gets the advantage. All the same, America supporting Ukraine’s independence by extending loans or selling/giving weapons does not require war. Again, look to Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Hostile nations, very close to our shores, regularly acquire Russian weapons without calls on our side for invasion. In fact, there are Russian troops in Venezuela last I checked. And Moscow has agreed to send troops to Nicaragua. Who is advocating military measures against these states? So far, I see no American troops operating in Ukraine — yet Russia plays the victim and we must turn a blind eye to Russia’s doings in Latin America. For all this want of symmetry, America has not invaded or threatened to invade Cuba because of Russian support for the island. Is Cuba a vital interest to America and not Russia? What is “sauce for the goose,” as they say, “is sauce for the gander.” Obama is and was a Russian shill. This is just one more proof of it. He should have been investigated for ties to Russia, far more than Trump.
“Obama is and was a Russian shill. This is just one more proof of it. He should have been investigated for ties to Russia, far more than Trump.”
I totally agree! Especially after the “hot mic” moment where he said “after my election I have more flexibility.” Medvedev said he would let Putin know.
The Democrats are always accusing the Republicans of what they themselves are doing.
No, it’s basically a recent scenario from one Jacob Dreizin, ex-U.S. Army, born in Russia, and a self-styled “student of Russia”.
And yes, Ukraine would then “get a say”, but from a relatively weakened position with respect to Russian forces.
Who’s doing more damage to Russia than the Kremlin establishment and Putin? The whole story of those countless young men who are fleeing Russia, what will this do to the country in the long term? Who’s going to keep the country moving after losing so many healthy young males? Maybe those who are fleeing are a small dent in the population, but this chaos that is caused by Putin’s invasion (that can’t be called an invasion on threats of repercussions for wrongthink), recruitment centers being set on fire, army recruiters being shot, FSB agents being shot by disgruntled soldiers, all this insanity is going to have bad consequences for the average Russian, in more ways than just mere economical sanctions coming from abroad, the KGB folk are imploding the country.
Ukraine is not at the peak of its military manpower. She has had so many volunteers, she has not had to draft anyone last spring, or this fall. Ukraine is increasing its manpower.
Russia is providing cannon fodder, not Ukraine. Russia has already had casualties wildly exceeding the losses of Afghanistan. Most of those losses tend to fall on “Great Russians” and nationalities, not central Russians.
My military loss data shows an estimated 6-to-1 ratio in favor of Russia. Also, Ukraine was drafting old men, and even women. Didn’t the Ukrainian young men mostly leave the country at the beginning of hostilities?
At one point, Russian artillery was firing as much as 70,000 rounds in one day in the Donbas, which presumably decimated the highly-trained, original, experienced fighters. I remember stories about Western volunteers who simply fled after one or two days of such a relentlessly unbearable experience.
Still, I can’t deny that the war somehow continues, so I really don’t know what to think about Ukrainian manpower except that it’s sufficient to challenge Russian confidence.
Pondering: The Ukrainians outnumber the Russians in the theater of operations more than two to one. Perhaps three and a half to one now. I do not know where you get your skewed data, but I believe you are using Russian propaganda outlets.
Regarding your religious beliefs, I see that you, Jeff, are a preterist.Please stick to your research of the global situations only. You seemed to REALLY want to get your version of Christian beliefs off Your chest, once and for all.You can’t be right about everything, Jeff. I do think that You believe that, though…
Joshua: Nobody is right about everything, especially me, and also you. But when I quote thinkers greater than myself, and men of learning greater than either of us, you ought to show a little more respect. If you disagree with something, you are obligated to explain why. Take the effort to honestly say something true and meaningful. For if someone spends time baking you a cake from scratch, it is bad manners to reciprocate with a tootsie roll. In other words, write something as thoughtful, and as self-reflective, as what they wrote for you. A statement for discussion is a gift. It is a kindness. So how do you requite this kindness? By rudely insinuating that the other person has not given the subject the thought it deserves because his expertise lies elsewhere. But Joshua, it was not my analysis you are reacting to, but the analysis of St. Augustine, Michael Franz, and Eric Voegelin. It is a cheap shot to dismiss these three men by referring to my fallibility. Can we leave me out of it? Please? On this site I’d like to avoid inflicting poorly thought-out views on my readers, hoping my readers will present their best thoughts to me. And that means it is not about me or you. It is about the subject at hand. To avoid offensive name-calling between Christians — which has erupted on this site in the past — I have asked that people not engage in arguments about scripture or religious doctrine. But now I see that my request is never going to be respected. Please note: Every time a reader breaks my rule, it is an offense to me. Do I delete their comment and offend THEM? What do I do? Every time my rule is broken it is like being slapped in the face. Do I allow people to keep slapping me? Every article I write, regardless of the subject matter, someone here insists on dragging Revelation into it, and making it about the End of Days. Very sorry to say, but I have not written a commentary on the Book of Revelation. I do not want anyone to think I endorse specific interpretations of that book (and many first-time readers may get the wrong idea if I keep silent). So let me be clear. I do not want to offend anybody; but my writings are not intended as book ends for other people’s Apocalypticism. If I believed in what you believe about history and the present times I would be writing Bible Prophecy books. But I am not. If you want to say my views are poorly considered, go right ahead; but my views on this are taken directly from St. Augustine, Professors Voegelin and Franz. It would be wonderful indeed, if you could intelligently refute these great minds. But you did not do so because you probably cannot. So you struck at me, instead. And I beg you: Please do not allow my errors to reflect poorly on THEM. Furthermore, no rational person should be offended by the truth — if truth it be. And if the truth is an open question let us only send out our best thoughts. What offends me, to be honest, are invalid arguments, counter-factual narratives, and lazy thinking. I am the one who warned people off this subject, hoping I would never have to venture here. But now I see that everything is of a piece. I either become fodder for Hal Lindsey, or I refuse. So pardon me if I am tired of being slapped in the face. I am the one who did not want this discussion.
So often we take great pains to write as succinctly as possible in consideration of the readers’ time. Sometimes such prose inevitably becomes a bit lengthy, but whether long or short, it still takes time to distil down into as brief as possible a reflective response.
Then you come along and ham handedly delete it.
Lenyard: Yes, I delete you, as you are so personally insulting, and write so much nonsense so quickly that deletion is the only appropriate response. I think I have deleted 20 posts from you. Get off my site, Lanyard, you are not welcome here. Go amuse yourself by harassing someone else.
I think the goal is to frustrate you so completely that you’ll quit. Thank you for not letting them win!
Lanyard is an ass.
Jeff, you are truly a gifted writer. Well said.
Yes, please delete them. So many times I have to bite my tongue to keep from responding, and sometimes I don’t bite hard enough. They’re a slap in your face, and an offense to deep scholarship that requires knowledge of Biblical languages and Biblical ways of saying things. This site discusses present threats and situations.
I am new to your blog and do appreciate You. I was very pre emptive with some anger expressed. I do apologize. I know that You encourage the thinking man (woman) to come out and have proper discussions.I see multiple viewpoints on Christian doctrine, and I should respectfully disagree rather than antagonize. Once again,vJeff, I do apologize. In Christ I do repent.
Always think things through. 🙃
Off topic, but about infrastructure. There was a power outage on Bornholm, Denmark this morning. Unlikely to be sabotage but something broke in the infrastructure on the island, and thus the cable was disconnected on the swedish side. Power is now on again. But, this makes me think. Here in Sweden there are several cables to the continent, Denmark, Germany, Poland and the baltic states. Norway has one to Great Britain. The cable between Sweden and Poland crossed Nord Stream very close to the leaks, but was not damaged. There’s also cables crisscrossing borders all over Europe. All of it very vulnerable, especially at chokepoints. If several go down simultaneously that can potentially cause a massive power outage. Germany being especially vulnerable. I wonder what measures have been taken to protect the grid, if any. Apart from fences and camera surveillance.
Putin responds….
“Russia Launches Large-Scale Strikes On 20 Ukrainian Cities”
At least 100 strikes were carried out, with many cruise missiles launched from Russian warships in the Black Sea. Putin in a televised announcement said he ordered attacks on military, energy, and communications targets specifically in response to the Crimea bridge attack.
“If attempts to carry out terrorist attacks continue, Russia’s response will be severe and at the level of the threats facing it. Nobody should be in any doubt,” Putin warned.
“The first episode is over. There will be others… I will express my personal position… The Ukrainian state in its current configuration with the Nazi political regime will pose a constant, direct and clear threat to Russia. Therefore, in addition to protecting our people and protecting the country’s borders, the goal of our future actions … should be a complete dismantling of the political regime of Ukraine,” Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel.
Medvedev is a fool and Putin’s toady. Anything he says is suspect when it sees the light of day.
Russian attacks on civilian targets won’t change outcome of this war | Lawrence Freedman
Times Radio 10/10/22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo4zCHtu6jQ
– Freedman makes an interesting point, that Russia is wasting cruise missiles and precision weapons on a petulant revenge attack against civilians. Russia’s stock of these weapons is already low and it has not been using them with same intensity as at the start of the war because Ukraine has destroyed many depots.
– While Russia has been wasting some its best weapons on indiscriminately targeting civilians, Ukraine has been using its long-range weapons with much better effect in striking at militarily relevant targets.
– Because of sanctions Russia cannot so easily manufacture more precision weapons, hence why they are buying Iranian drones (I’ve read in other places that these drones contain US-made chips and Chinese-made components, just another reason why the West needs to completely stop doing business with China)
As military strategy goes, the Russian top leadership has made bad decisions every step of the way. This is probably not going to change.
It was definitely a knee-jerk reaction out of anger. A “show of force” to try and make Putin feel better. I read yesterday that the construction contractor of the bridge was a childhood friend of his.
As for China, after Friday’s new restrictions on technology exports, this is what is being said:
“The two countries are now officially in an “economic war,” Dylan Patel, chief analyst at SemiAnalysis, said. A Chinese analyst said there is “no possibility of reconciliation” any longer.”
And how do we know anything about Russia’s “stocks” of cruise missiles?
The stupid western leftists who were gloating that Russia was losing so not know the levels and the weaponry, the death that Russia is willing to inflict. They have not even begun to fight.
And what will the West do? The sanctions are already done. Russia can brutalize Ukraine with missiles. They haven’t even dropped thermonaric or nuclear ones yet. And what can the West do, especially this winter? Short of NATO or America bombing Russia directly, nothing.
And if they do attack Russia directly, Russia has casus belli for a nuclear attack on the West. All paths are thought out.
Unfortunately, I think there is more “shock and awe” to come. Buckle up!
So now there are saying this:
“The truck driver was identified by Russian media as 51-year-old Mahir Yusubov of Azerbaijan.”
Picture here:
https://twitter.com/OsintTv/status/1578777596929576960/photo/1
Interesting that the Russian media has now fingered a second Muslim man as the suicide bomber behind the Kerch attack. They are intent on going with the Islamic terrorist angle and tying Ukraine’s special forces to it, probably as a way of smearing Ukraine and shoring up domestic support for the war. By echoing the Chechen war narrative they are going back to what worked before, and this angle also plays well to conservatives who are wary of growing Islamic power in the West.
Laura: Yes. The Russian authorities want to find a theme that appeals to the Russian people. You may be right. They call the Ukrainian Nazis, and now they link them to Islamic terrorism.
Yes, JewNazi Ukraine is now bandying together with Islamic terrorists. Makes sense.
Perhaps I missed this earlier in the year, but I can’t remember Jeff or any commenters mentioning it.
It seems that major lithium deposits were recently discovered in the Donbas area of Ukraine. A Chinese and an Australian lithium mining company both signaled their interest in November of 2021. There was an official announcement of the find in mid-February of this year, just before the invasion (although Putin presumably knew of the matter prior to the Chinese bid).
Were Ukraine to regain full and reliable control of its Eastern regions, this would be a great boost to the EU’s planned switch from gas-driven to electrical motor vehicles (!).
Were Russia to retain control, this would help Russia/China to cut off the West from lithium, or to provide it only to countries that are obedient.
As a further complication, over 90% of the processing (not mining) of lithium is carried out in China, because the process is highly polluting and excluded by the environmental regulations of, among others, the EU (of course, free-market entrepreneurship could develop technologies to minimise the pollution, but since when was the EU interested in free-market solutions?). This is another example of “environmentalist” politics being used to give China a global advantage, but it may yet be reversed if China’s little helpers in Europe begin to break away (that’s a matter that Jean Robin could judge better).
My initial source is this:
https://economic-times.co.uk/news/ukraine-huge-lithium-deposits-found-just-before-invasion/
This publication, unfortunately, is full of forebodings about the dark forces of “Brexiteers” and “climate deniers”, but article about Donbas lithium deposits seems to contain factual matter worth following up.
The opening sentence, by the way, seems to contain a strange error, referring to “the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, located in Brighton UK”, whereas both the institution of that name, and a smaller, similarly named organisation are located (as you might expect) in Ukraine, and I can see know evidenced that either has a laboratory or office in the UK.
[…] Lien vers le bog de J.R Nyquist […]
Hi Jeff. You mentioned in one of your earlier comments a book about the Maidan revolution. You mentioned it as one of the best researched books. Since I can’t find the title anymore and I would like to read it, could you please tell me again the author and title of the book? Thank you very much.
I think Jeff was referring to this book:
Ukraine’s Maidan, Russia’s War: A Chronicle and Analysis of the Revolution of Dignity
https://www.amazon.ca/Ukraines-Maidan-Russias-War-Revolution/dp/3838213270/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1R559J5JP08NR&keywords=maidan&qid=1665432281&qu=eyJxc2MiOiIwLjAwIiwicXNhIjoiMC4wMCIsInFzcCI6IjAuMDAifQ%3D%3D&sprefix=maidan%2Caps%2C164&sr=8-1
Yes, that is the book.
The book is “UKraine’s Maidan: Russia’s War,: by Mychailo Wynniyckyj.
From Amir Tsarfati’s Telegram channel this morning:
“The new Russian commander for the Ukrainian front said: the Ukrainians didn’t start their morning with coffee!”
“As I reported here earlier – Putin’s appointment of this general wasn’t a random one. He is known as vicious and cruel mostly towards civilian populations. He was the butcher in Syria and he is definitely doing the same in Ukraine in the past 48 hours.”
Pictures on his channel very sad of Ukrainian bombing aftermath.
This is why I’ve never understood the leftist gloating over how Putin was “losing” the war. Russia has not even begun to plumb the depths of their depravity. What can the West do this winter? Nothing short of a direct attack on Russia, which Russia is probably fine with, as it gives them the green light to do that which they are going to do anyways.
The Russian energy weapon will be played for maximum leverage to unravel NATO. So far this strategy has not seen any success.
Between theory and truth lie many questions awaiting answers. As an observer, I can only speculate on cause and effect regarding the world situation. It is certainly beneficial to have a working background in many fields of study. I don’t qualify in that regard. My opinions and observations are simply mine and are open to rebuttal from which I might actually learn.
In the beginning, it wasn’t the fear of strangers that inspired conflict. It was the anger over how they interacted. Tribes seeking the resources necessary for survival were protective of their territory much like animals until the advent of trade allowed for a modicum of civility. Then came greed and a quest for control in a sparsely populated world as though only a few were privileged enough to benefit. And, while it might be said that war was the stimulus that led to innovation and progress, it was also the cause of destruction and slavery.
Fast forward to today. As I see it, the world is still governed by a quest for control of resources be they animal, vegetable or mineral. The struggle is between three great powers with apron-tie hangers on – Anglo, Oriental and Slavic. Every country has been colonized at some point throughout history. To lay blame on any one country would be stretching the issue. Certainly, such expansion was often fraught with ruthless disregard for those being invaded. China is a relative latecomer to the game.
Of late, Communism has permeated the halls of power throughout the world. With the exception of Russia and the hard core orient, it is subject to interpretation based on the cultural background of each society. Governments are, and always have been, self-serving entities. There is no one ruling power less evil than another. Evil by any other name is still evil. Everything we see is a chess game. Everyone belongs to the same club beset with squabbles over who will the champion.
Pick whatever theory you desire as to why the world is crumbling. It doesn’t matter. The reality is that everyone is playing by the same rules in a game of last man standing. And the rules are there are no rules. We little people do not count. But we don’t have to accept our plight without a fight. And, that’s where we are failing.
People won’t fight if they don’t recognize a threat. In the U.S., people aren’t informed about corruption and usurpation of power because the MSM is complicit. So people literally don’t realize that there are global predators and that they are the prey. The Press was supposed to one of the Checks and Balances, but is now basically a propaganda arm of the current government.
Jeff,
I just got the last copy of Red Carpet by Joseph Finder on Amazon. Very much looking forward to reading. Thanks for the recommendation.
Let us know what you think of Joe Finder’s book. Very interesting read!
I will.
Also I have a question, given what we have seen the Russians do in Ukraine, how would you revise your evaluation of the Russian military?
Jeff can answer for himself, but from my study of military history, I’ve never had a high opinion of the Russian Military. Under Stalin they suffered 11-12 million combat deaths. That is not a sign of a good Army in any case. They beat the Finns by choking them on Russian blood, and did the same with the Germans. Between the war and the terror, Suvarov stated that demographers said Russia was missing 100 million people. Peter Zeihan has showed charts showing the demographic crashes caused by the war. Russia has never recovered from it.
Russia can not fight the kind of war Stalin did. He does not have the population for it. If he continues on the path he is on, he will do nothing more than destroy the demographic future of Russia faster than it is declining by natural forces. All he is doing now is preparing more cannon fodder to go to their deaths. The Ukrainians have already chewed up much of Russia’s best troops. Just watching how tank formations move, it is clear they are poorly trained.
Yes. Look at how they abandon their tanks, even working ones.
Russia doesn’t seem to be too concerned about declining population. I just watched an interview with Tim Kirby, an American expatriate in Russia. He said it’s *exceedingly* difficult to immigrate to Russia, although a tourist visa is no problem. (You need to enter through one of the southern countries such as Turkey, etc. that are not part of the sanctions bloc.)
Note: You must arrive with 100% cash (no limit) to cover expenses, but can leave with only $10,000 maximum. Credit cards won’t work.
Yes, not deploying troops to screen for the tanks is suicide for an armored force.
Perhaps Putin is “ahead of the game” on the de-pop agenda.
Real combat will be strike/counter strike with tactical WMD, chem, nuke, and bio.
Of course you have to wonder about Russian competence there, perhaps they plan on running the whole show from the war-room under the Kremlin and/or one of the mountain covered retreats.
The late Peter Pry said we desperately need to deploy two thousand plus nukes to the US Navy, and I feel even in the short term he will be proved to be correct.
Their military victory doesn’t have to rely on good soldiers – just overwhelming death from their rocket forces.
But you have to have an army to occupy the enemy and defeat his shattered forces (remaining after nuclear attacks). I am not sure Russia has a force capable of doing that if mroe troops are lost in Ukraine. At some point an army loses its self-confidence. It ceases to function like an army.
Jeff, you are right, the Russians will need to have an intact army to occupy and “mop up” a defeated enemy. Yet a World War II documentary (I’ve forgotten which one) mentioned that mopping up was often more dangerous than the main battle where the main enemy force was defeated. Do the Russians have enough troops to mop up their victories they need in order to take over NATO? Sweden already told its people never to surrender. What will happen in other countries?
And the biggest prize is the U.S., presently with the third largest population of all countries in the world. Nuclear weapons are effective only against concentrated and/or high value targets. That means several of our largest cities will be hit along with military targets. But do the Russians and Chinese have enough troops to subdue the many small targets like Muleshoe, Texas where half the U.S. population lives? And we are armed, unlike many other countries. Does not a map of the 2020 elections, showing the counties won by Trump, give an indication of the troubles any enemy occupying force would face?
The Russians and Chinese must be successful in their mopping up of the U.S., or they will lose the war. If they lose, and I think the odds are that they will lose, how will it affect morale within their own countries? Will the Chinese people finally revolt against the CCP? Will Russia be largely depopulated? The thought is too terrible to continue. Other than to say that if we defeat their invasion, we will counterattack.
The Russian military of today has more serious problems than the Soviet military of Stalin’s time. In fact, it has all the old Soviet problems without the numerical depth or effective discipline. It is clear that discipline has broken down. It is also clear that the numbers are not there. Without Stalin sitting atop the system, butchering anyone who gets out of line, everyone turns rascal. Stalin even said to his minions: “You are blind kittens.” History now shows us that Stalin knew his business. His successors are, indeed, blind kittens. And Ukraine is on its way to drowning them.
Any insights to be gleaned if we put the pipeline and bridge attacks, plus retaliation and rhetoric from Moscow, alongside the CCP’s 20th Party Parliament starting this Sunday?
I recently re-watched Nyquist’s June interview with Seth (Man in American), noting the China’s Nov. 1 deadline to launch an attack. It definitely seems like pieces are being moved on the board.
I agree with Perseus that the sequence of moves seems to be orchestrated to establish the United States/NATO as the aggressor or at least provocateur. The narrative is being laid so methodically, it seems that placing blame must be strategically essential. But if the goal is all-out attack on America, the triggering event would seem to have to be bigger than we’ve seen so far. We still seem several steps or escalations away from justification for an all out coordinated attack on North America. The weeks are closing on November 1. What will happen between now and then?
There is no limit to how many attacks they can stage on themselves. Already look at the West’s confusion regarding the Nordstream bombing and the bridge bombing. Every time, they use it to establish guilt in Western citizens minds. There is a pace and a tempo to their play. Communists are nothing if not expert stage-masters. All their lives is staging one massive show after another.
If November 1 is the date, we should expect these “mystery attacks” to increase. Already, Russia is using the bridge attack to brutalize Ukraine more. Ukraine is “shocked”, headlines say. I have no idea why. I have never bought the idea that Russia has lost or was losing at all. Communists start with the goal of attacking and destroying you, and then spend 95% of their time staging the introductory show to convince people it just organically happened. I already see this working shockingly well on Americans. If Russia bombed their own city, I could easily see Americans blaming the West and NATO for it.
We are in very dangerous waters. The pace of these “attacks” and whether they continue will give us more clues as to the timeline.
We have to be careful about making assumptions about Russian strategy. We know they are allied with China. We know what their long term intentions are. We know what agreements were put in place more than thirty years ago. But right now, from all appearances, Russia is making serial blunders. And these are real blunders. It is inconceivable blunders of this type — blunders on the battlefield — are committed on purpose. Nobody wants to lose a battle or suffer a repulse during an invasion. Too much is at stake. What is uncertain is the actual mobilization capabilities of Russia and the nuclear capabilities, and the strategy advantages that may be exploited from an unintended defeat in Ukraine. Then you have to factor in politics in Russia and abroad. There is also the economic war that is unfolding. on the last point, I do not think Russia could afford to bomb their own city with a nuclear weapon. First, you have to order nuclear forces to conduct the attack. They might refuse and expose you. Second, you are destroying your own countrys morale and feeling of security. It is too risky under the present circumstances to follow such a strategy.
Say what???? Jeff, do you think this just propaganda?
Recent North Korean Missile Tests Involved ‘Tactical Nukes’: State Media
State mouthpiece Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un personally guided the launches, which involved loading tactical nuclear warheads at a silo.
The recent tactical nuclear drills have demonstrated that North Korea’s nuclear combat forces are “fully prepared to hit and destroy targets at any time from any designated location,” according to the report.
“Various types of tactical ballistic missiles launched on Sept. 29 and Oct. 1 hit the targets with the combination of air explosion and direct precision and dispersion strike, proving the accuracy of our weapon systems,” KCNA stated.
I have not heard from any military sources about the North Korean tests. It is possible they have the capability. The Russians are good teachers when it comes to missiles and nuclear warheads.
This is what the Associated Press is saying this morning:
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s recent barrage of missile launches were the simulated use of its tactical battlefield nuclear weapons to “hit and wipe out” potential South Korean and U.S. targets, state media reported Monday, as its leader Kim Jong Un signaled he would conduct more provocative tests.
The North’s statement, released on the 77th birthday of its ruling Workers’ Party, is seen as an attempt to burnish Kim’s image as a strong leader at home amid pandemic-related hardships as he’s defiantly pushing to enlarge his weapons arsenal to wrest greater concessions from its rivals in future negotiations.
The Overture has begun. Victor Suvorov spoke of this. The Russian sabotage of their own infrastructure has now laid the groundwork for them to begin enemy operations on foreign soil without the enemy even realizing what is happening.
Somebody with very “precise knowledge” of Germany’s rail system “intentionally severed” 2 communications cables 340 miles apart simultaneously.
This is the first incident of sabotage on foreign soil that I am aware of. It indicates to me that the Overture, or I believe he called it “Grey Terror”, has begun. It also suggests to me that the surprise strike is not far away, a couple of months max. It also confirms what I thought, that Russia blew up the bridge. I know Jeff disagrees and I will respectfully disagree. I think they 100% blew up Nordstream.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/10/10/more-infrastructure-sabotage-germany-hunts-culprits-of-cut-cables-that-brought-rail-network-to-knees/
Russia blew up the bridge? Russia was behind the Nord Stream pipeline destruction? I do not know the answer to that. I have various reports from different sources.
Just one person’s opinion, I could easily be wrong.
I do not think people who live in glass houses should throw stones. I do not approve of attacks on infrastructure, though bridges are an exception and always have been fair game in war. The pipeline attack was not wise. Whoever did it.
So….who was responsible for taking down a portion of the bridge? Who was the driver of the truck that supposedly carried the explosives? What was his nationality? Did he survive, somehow? Was it really a Ukranian, or could it have been an agent-of-NATO plant? It is far beyond reason to believe it was a Russian agent. Now if it were proven to be a NATO-supplied agent, could we not expect that within two weeks we mught suddenly see one or two, say, key rail bridges over, say, the Rhine in Germany mysteriously go ka-boom!, followed by an awfully big ‘ker-plumk’ down into the dark river waters? Maybe not too likely, but it can’t be ruled out entirely. Surely Russia has special forces capable of pulling it off if they really want to?
Nobody is yet claiming credit for the attack, officially. But the Ukrainians are quietly celebrating the result.
I don’t think they’re “quiet” about celebrating it. They even issued a postage stamp commemorating it!
My postage stamps are pretty quiet. I just assumed the Ukrainian ones were too.
LOL! Can you imagine putting a stamp like that on your Christmas cards?
A stamp that sings Christmas carols! What a great idea!
Maybe I’m missing it in the news, but the CCP has sure been quiet for a while here, as the world gapes at bridges and pipelines being blown up and now the big distraction of Russian pulverization of civilian targets in Ukraine. Russia front and center. What is the CCP doing back stage? Perhaps they’ve been openly busy too, and I’ve just missed it. Wondering if their Ro-Ro ships have disappeared like a big sub?
October 16, I believe, is the big Party meeting. We will hear more about Xi’s future role as the Great Leader.
@Jeff. Ok. Thank you!
@Praying. Oh. I missed that. From what I have taken in online, I have had the sense the CCP has gone rather quiet and taken a backseat to Russia for now — particularly from their Taiwan blockade coverage, posturing etc. Thank you!
Mtngal, yes they have been relatively quiet. We were talking about Ukraine celebrating the destruction of the bridge. 🙂 North Korea has been acting up, but China seems to have their hands full trying to control their own people.
Jeff :
Above, you say “the Russian energy weapon will be played”. Do you mean a nuclear weapon or some type of directed energy beam weapon ? Sorry if I am being dense.
I believe Mr. Nyquist refered to Oil and Grain, two resources that may be used as a weapon to deprive the western economies.
Yes.
Russia is depriving Europe of energy in the form of natural gas. Oil and grain (fertilizer) are also weapons in the Russian economic arsenal.
I doubt there is much celebrating going on now: 🙁
“For a second day following Monday’s largest ever Russian wave of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, air raids sounded frequently in cities throughout the country. Thus far Tuesday has seen a dozen cities attacked, with energy infrastructure being a primary target. Energy facilities in the central Ukraine region of Dnipropetrovsk suffered “serious” damage by the latest Russian strikes, a day after President Vladimir Putin in a televised statement said he ordered attacks on military, energy, and communications targets specifically in response to the weekend Crimea bridge attack.
The damage is already extensive enough that Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has called on Ukrainians to limit their electricity use. Describing that 11 important infrastructure facilities have been damaged in eight regions of Ukraine and Kyiv, Shmyhal announced, “We must be prepared for temporary disruptions of electricity, water supplies and communication.”
The Russians hit hard, and Russian troops are now moving back into Belarus. Poland’s distribution of iodine pills and their advising their citizens to leave Belarus suggest they knew this deployment was coming and that nuclear weapons will be used when these troops head south for Ukraine.