“It is entirely possible that the true and authentic reality is being drowned out by the countless superficial information bits noisily and breathlessly presented in propaganda fashion. Consequently, one may be entirely knowledgeable about a thousand details and nevertheless, because of ignorance regarding the core of the matter, remain without basic insight.”
Joseph Pieper
Last Friday evening I sat down with Mr. Wang of Lude Media. He is an anticommunist writer and broadcaster with sources inside the Chinese Communist Party. What follows is a discussion about Trump’s metaphorical love affair with the Tooth Fairy. It would be much better if Trump simply accepted the painful necessity of a root canal to save Ukraine (the tooth), rather than leaving Ukraine vainly under his pillow in exchange for fairy kisses.
Interview With Lude
JRN: Trump has returned to the White House. How does the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regard him?
LUDE: The CCP believes the United States has a long-term strategy that will lead to a final showdown. They realize that Trump is trying to use Russia against China, to restrain the CCP.
JRN: Restrain Russia?
LUDE: From the CCP’s perspective, they believe that President Trump will exchange Ukraine for Russian help against the CCP. In other words, they think Putin’s Russia can be their ally. There are statements, given by CCP strategists, on this matter. In one newspaper it says that Trump wants Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal as part of a final battle plan. They suggest that Trump is presently flattering the CCP leadership in Beijing, to keep them off balance. His niceness toward China is pure hypocrisy. Trump wants to gain a temporary advantage.
JRN: Do the CCP strategists say that Russia will align with Trump? Or do they trust that Russia will make empty promises to Trump and remain loyal to Beijing?
LUDE: The CCP strategists only analyze Trump’s strategy. There is another CCP strategist who says China expects Russia to be loyal to China. They are confident because Putin is a true friend of the CCP. Trump’s strategy of sacrificing Ukraine for an alliance with Russia will fail.
JRN: If Trump abandons Ukraine in exchange for unreliable Russian promises of help against China, then China wins a great victory.
LUDE: Yes. This is why the CCP is so confident. They believe this deception strategy will work and cause great problems for the United States. Of course, if Trump’s team can see through this deception, the strategy will fail.
JRN: Do you think Trump will see through this deception?
LUDE: The CCP has penetrated Trump’s team. There are infiltrators around Trump. These infiltrators can safeguard the deception and stifle anyone who sees through it. Critics of Trump’s Ukraine policy will probably be stopped by these infiltrators. The CCP strategists are confident because they believe Trump has weaknesses they can exploit. They consider him to be headstrong and over-confident. Trump sees himself as supported by God. This makes him relatively immune to criticism. Trump is also supercilious and subject to overweaning pride. His third weakness is the fact that Trump looks to short-term benefits rather than long-term strategic consequences. His term is only four years, and he only looks four years ahead. The CCP strategists think Trump is over-confident in his negotiating abilities. They see him relying too much on trade and talking his way into a better position. Trump always labels himself as unpredictable. The CCP believes they have seen through is unpredictability.
JRN: Trump is proposing a three-way arms control agreement between Russia, China, and the United States. What do the CCP strategists think of this?
LUDE: China officially says that their armed forces are not too large. They do not need to limit their strategic arms. Rather, they say America must disarm first. The CCP thinks that many of Trump’s strategies are based on bluffing. Their response to his arms control proposals will be silence. They think that because of Trump’s TV show, he thinks in terms of presentation. He generates drama to get attention and drive policy. He always plays for media attention. In essence, they see Trump as an immoral person. He only cares about his place in history. Therefore, he has no real ideological commitments. They believe his team member choices are based on the three factions which make up his political coalition: (1) MAGA is the first; (2) the Establishment Republican Party; (3) right wing tech. The CCP thinks these three groups cannot get along. In the end, CCP agents can disrupt these three forces. This coalition was successful in electing Trump, but as the policy unfolds they will come into conflict. In the CCP’s policy paper, the Establishment Republicans will fight to support Ukraine, but right-wing tech and MAGA won’t support Ukraine. They will fall into fighting with one another, as in the case of the H-1b visas. There is a serious conflict over that. New right-wing tech wants electric cars, but MAGA is against electric cars. Besides these conflicts, CCP analysis says that MAGA is Trump’s base, so he cannot go against MAGA in the end. Meanwhile, the Establishment Republicans help get his policies passed. In the long run, the CCP thinks that President Trump will be hamstrung by infighting between his collaborators. They think Trump will have serious difficulties holding his coalition together.
JRN: Does the CCP have a plan for exploiting the breakdown of Trump’s coalition?
Lude: The CCP has its infiltrators in each faction of Trump’s coalition. They will constantly make trouble so Trump will have no time to do anything. Trump will be constantly putting out fires, stopping internal disputes. For example: Musk is a big factor for Trump, but Musk has a factory in Shanghai, so the CCP can put pressure on Musk. Within MAGA Steven Bannon has deep connections with Miles Guo —
JRN: Is Bannon still friends with Guo? I thought maybe their alliance was weakened.
LUDE: Even now you can see that Miles Guo has already been sentenced by the court and Bannon says this is unfair. Bannon is actively seeking a presidential pardon for Guo.
JRN: Is that really true?
LUDE: Back on 19 January 2021, on Trump’s last day in office, Bannon was working to get Mile Guo a pardon. But Trump would not sign a pardon for him. Guo was very angry about Bannon’s failure to secure a pardon for him, thinking that Bannon only sought a pardon for himself. Miles Guo described Bannon as using him for money; so this is purely a money relationship.
JRN: Was Miles Guo so disappointed that he does not want to work with Bannon anymore?
LUDE: Miles Guo is only disappointed that Bannon took his money and failed to deliver a pardon.
JRN: Moving on to the Republican Establishment, where do you see the CCP influence among leading Republicans?
LUDE: Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and his wife are certainly people of influence. McConnell has lost some of this influence, but he is still an important Republican leader.
JRN: In terms of this larger deception strategy, our only hope is that Trump will see through the Russian deception and steer away from an agreement with Moscow.
Lude: In my opinion, there is no way Trump can get a good agreement with Russia. Russia will not part with the four annexed provinces of Ukraine. Trump will never talk Moscow into retreating.
JRN: Many in the West believe that Russia’s economy is crumbling, that Putin desperately needs peace. What do the CCP analysts say about Russia’s economic troubles?
LUDE: Reports of Russia’s economic troubles are not entirely true. Russia has already shifted to a war-time economy. Russia is reporting over 3 percent economic growth.
JRN: Many business analysts are also saying China’s economy is in trouble.
LUDE: China is presently in a quasi-war economy.
JRN: How does that work for China, being partway between a war and a peace-time economy? How long before they must go back to a peace-time economy or go forward into a war-time economy? It is rarely good to be halfway between one and the other.
LUDE: We have heard President Xi Jinping say they are close to their final goal. But shifting to a full war-time economy is very difficult. They must move toward a war-time economy very slowly. This cannot be done quickly. China has huge manufacturing power. Decoupling from the United States can cause massive unemployment or other problems if they are not careful. The move to full war production must therefore progress slowly.
JRN: In your opinion, has the Ukraine War, which halted Russia in its tracks, slowed down China’s war preparations?
LUDE: They have to go slow for their own reasons.
JRN: When do you think China will shift to a full war economy?
LUDE: They are steadily preparing for the final battle. When the time comes they will move quickly into a war-time economy. China’s market economy is fake. All the large companies are controlled by the CCP. All of them can be switched to war-time production by orders from the top. Young people in China foresee this already. Now everyone wants a government job, even though the pay is lower. This is a trend.
JRN: It seems that China is committed to a future war with the United States. Thank you for this timely interview.
Endaevour News Interview With J.R. Nyquist and David Satter
Friends & Enemies
Shanghai Observer: Jin Conrong says Trump is Preparing for a “Decisive Battle” with China, but there are two unexpected aspects
By Tang Xiaofu [12 Febrary 2025]
[Editor’s Note: Here are key excerpts from a Chinese strategist’s interview with the Shanghai Observer. Translation from the original Mandarin by Rafael Daher.]
In the United States, the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), authorized and led by [Elon] Musk, is also operating at full speed, “cleaning up” the Department of Education, the Department of Energy, the Department of the Treasury, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and has now turned its attention to the Pentagon… What do you think about these actions of the Trump 2.0 administration? On related topics, Observer.com reached out to Jin Canrong, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China and an expert on American affairs.
SO: What do you think about the actions of the Trump 2.0 administration?
Jin Canrong: Trump is Preparing for a “Decisive Battle” with China, but There Are Two Unexpected Aspects
SO: Trump, Rubio, and others have recently made harsh comments against China regarding the Panama Canal issue, and Panama has also recently announced its withdrawal from the “Belt and Road” initiative. Does this mean that the Trump administration has successfully pressured Panama through the canal issue? How will the resurgence of “Trump-Rodriguezism” in Latin America impact China’s relationship with South American countries, which has grown closer in recent years?
Jin Canrong: Trump has been in power for over three weeks since January 20. Although the time frame is short, the “shockwaves” of Trump have already appeared. It is generally recognized that the shockwaves of Trump’s “2.0 version” are stronger than those of his “1.0 version,” especially in two aspects that are beyond our expectations.
In terms of foreign policy, Trump has begun implementing a more blatant expansionist, power-driven, and imperialist strategy. Initially, we expected Trump to continue promoting the trade war, intimidating other countries, and withdrawing from international organizations. However, he publicly proposed turning Canada into the 51st state of the United States and even planned to forcibly buy Greenland. He was also preparing to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations to conduct cross-border attacks and planned to regain control of the Panama Canal.
In terms of domestic policy, Trump’s policies have overturned many aspects of the political logic of the United States. Initially, people expected him to bring disruptions in four main areas: first, reviving industry; second, expelling immigrants; third, restoring traditional values; and fourth, reforming government institutions. But the actual situation is unexpected. Trump’s biggest issue right now is “rectifying the government.”
Trump has worked with Elon Musk to create an agency called the “Department of Government Efficiency” to carry out large-scale cuts to government departments. Most recently, they shut down USAID, with expectations that only 294 of the agency’s 14,000 employees will be retained. Additionally, Trump has also reorganized intelligence agencies such as the CIA and FBI and has signaled plans to restructure the Department of Education, the Department of Agriculture, and the Department of Defense. For this reason, some commentators have pointed out that Trump is launching an “American version of the Hundred Days’ Reform.”
It is difficult to determine whether these measures can be sustained, but the initial effects of the shockwave are already evident. Canada and Mexico have begun to realign their policies regarding the United States, and the Danish government has also made certain concessions on the Greenland issue.
Regarding Panama, U.S. pressure has begun to show results. The first stop on the first foreign visit of the new Secretary of State Rubio was Panama, and shortly afterward, the Panamanian president announced the country’s withdrawal from the “Belt and Road” initiative. There are rumors that the Panamanian government plans to terminate its port management contract with Li Ka-shing’s Hutchison Whampoa ahead of schedule.
The Panamanian government has long struggled with insufficient management capabilities and once handed over the management of the Panama Canal to Hutchison Whampoa, a company that demonstrated more efficient administration than the Panamanian government itself. This arrangement attracted significant attention from the United States. Today, the fundamental issue for Panama is that the U.S. cannot forcibly seize control of the Panama Canal. In this process, China’s interests have suffered some damage. A spokesperson for my country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that our embassy in Panama is negotiating with the Panamanian side and communicating with the local government regarding Panama’s withdrawal from the “Belt and Road” initiative. After all, while Panama joined the initiative at our country’s invitation, it also did so voluntarily.
In the future, if U.S. interference intensifies, it may become more direct. Although such actions may provoke resentment among Latin American countries, the United States still holds the greatest influence in the region. While many Latin American nations have increased their independence since the war, they have always been in a relatively weak position in their relations with the U.S. and have found it difficult to resist American pressure. In this context, China and Latin American countries will face greater challenges in normal trade exchanges, cultural interactions, political cooperation, and other areas. We must be mentally prepared and take appropriate measures.
SO: Rubio continues to provoke China not only regarding the Panama Canal but also on the issues of the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Rubio had already written two reports on China, in 2019 and 2024. Much of the content of the second report … showed that at least someone on his team has been paying attention to China’s industrial policies for a long time and has also conducted some research on the country. From your perspective, is Rubio becoming Secretary of State good or bad for China-U.S. relations?
Jin Canrong: Since Trump was elected, his attitude towards China has changed since his first term. Trump repeatedly praised China and adopted some unconventional approaches. For example, in the press conference after his election last November, Trump spoke very highly of China, saying that “the Chinese people are a great people” and expressed his good cooperative relationship with President Xi Jinping, believing that all problems between China and the United States could be solved. Additionally, Trump also invited President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration on January 20.
Recently, a video of Trump responding to reporters’ questions has been circulating online. In the video, he expressed praise for China’s education system, saying that the Chinese educational system is quite excellent. This shows that after the implementation of the “version 2.0” policy, Trump’s attitude is no longer as harsh as in his previous term, and he has even expressed some positive positions on the Hong Kong issue.
However, from a strategic research perspective, these observations are actually full of “hypocritical flattery.” Such flattering discourse is common among businessmen who gain benefits through praise. The Chinese government remains calm about Trump’s comments, believing it should not be deceived by these superficial and pleasant words. All scholars who follow American politics are more concerned with Trump’s actual actions, especially how he appoints officials. As personnel is politics, a leader’s personal decisions often reflect their political inclinations.
A notable feature of Trump 2.0’s foreign policy is that he has appointed a large number of authorities who take a hard stance on China. For example, the appointment of the current Secretary of State has significant symbolic importance. According to the U.S. Constitution, the position of Secretary of State is very important, ranking fifth after the President and Vice President, and is responsible for the United States’ foreign affairs. In Trump’s cabinet appointments this time, Rubio was appointed Secretary of State. Rubio has long supported the “Taiwan independence” forces and has visited Taiwan many times, which is why he was included in our Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ sanctions list. Clearly, Trump is trying to pressure China through this appointment, as Sino-U.S. relations inevitably involve the key position of Secretary of State.
Additionally, Trump also appointed Waltz as Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, who is also known for his hard stance on China. Therefore, although Trump’s rhetoric regarding China is relatively mild, his actions undoubtedly show that his policy towards China remains tough.
In recent comments, Rubio identified China as a major threat. He not only consolidated the U.S. position in Latin America and excluded China, but also took a series of initiatives regarding China, including supporting the Philippines in its confrontation with China and using means to exaggerate the “Chinese threat” to pressure Japan and other countries to unite against China.
One of the diplomatic priorities of the Trump 2.0 era is territorial expansion, and another is promoting the return of American industry through trade wars. Since February 1, Trump has imposed an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese products, which has undoubtedly had a negative impact on trade relations between China and the U.S. The Chinese government has taken countermeasures, including imposing tariffs on some U.S. products, especially oil, gas, and food products, and adding some U.S. companies to the Entity List. Furthermore, China initiated an investigation into Google, restricted the export of certain minerals, and lodged a protest with the World Trade Organization (WTO). These measures indicate that the trade war between China and the U.S. has, in a sense, entered a stage of formal confrontation.
The main diplomatic strategy of Trump 2.0 remains confrontation with China. Trump is adjusting the diplomatic layout of the United States. He hopes to expand U.S. power by annexing Canada, Greenland, Panama, and other places. He also proposes to take control of Gaza and directly occupy a strategic land in the Middle East. While these measures may seem bizarre, they are understandable from the perspective of preparing for a strategic confrontation with China. Because, whether in Trump’s “1.0” or “2.0” era, the series of measures against China is clearly paving the way for the final decisive battle.
If you determine that an opponent is extremely powerful and a confrontation with them is inevitable in the future, you naturally need to prepare for a decisive battle. Therefore, domestically, Trump has established a more solid foundation for the U.S. by strengthening manufacturing, expelling illegal immigrants, and promoting social cohesion; and by restoring traditional values to strengthen the domestic economy and increase social cohesion.
Internationally, Trump’s strategic choices include making the United States the largest empire in the world by significantly expanding its North American territory; courting Russia at Ukraine’s expense to restrict China [italics added]; occupying key points in the Middle East, the strategic core of the Eurasian continent, to improve the U.S. strategic position; and strengthening control over its allies to increase America’s global power. For example, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently visited the United States. Although he used harsh words in Japan, he appeared very cautious after arriving in the U.S. The ultimate goal of this series of measures is to make thorough preparations for the strategic game with China.
After entering Trump’s “2.0” era, although his rhetoric seems more moderate than before, in actual actions, he remains steadfast in promoting [confrontational] policies towards China.
In this situation, I believe China should remain calm, make appropriate preparations, strengthen internal power, and continue to deepen diplomatic relations. The three magic weapons proposed by President Mao: “united front, armed struggle, and party building” are not outdated. Adhering to these principles will help China occupy an advantageous position in the global competition.
SO: In a conversation with Rubio before the Chinese New Year, Foreign Minister Wang Yi used the phrase “take care,” which is a very strong phrase. What warning does China want to send to Rubio by using this word? Given Trump’s desire to visit China, how will China and the United States handle Rubio’s sanction status?
Jin Canrong: Regarding Trump’s visit to China, Trump has sometimes expressed his hope to visit China as soon as possible, and other times he stated that “I’m not in a hurry.” The signals he sent seemed quite confusing. This is not the first time he has sent such confusing signals. Previously, he said he would “talk to President Xi Jinping within 24 hours,” but then in his second speech, he said he was “not in a hurry and can take it slow.” This move caused people to doubt his position and made them feel he was unreliable.
Trump is aware that China always places great importance on U.S.-China relations and warmly welcomes foreign guests. If he visits China, he will certainly gain something, and it will help consolidate the political situation in his country. Therefore, he has been motivated to visit China as soon as possible to have the opportunity to implement the “Hundred Days Reform” plan and gain a certain “presence” and reputation for himself in U.S.-China relations. However, the implementation of the visit to China still faces many specific issues and requires further consultations.
Currently, Trump is waging a tariff war with China and has made some accusations against China internationally. Additionally, Rubio, as a key figure, is still on China’s sanctions list, which makes his visit to China face legal obstacles and becomes a significant challenge. Earlier this year, Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone conversation with Rubio at his request, and the media widely reported the mention of the term “take care” during the call. However, in reality, during the call, the English translation was more euphemistic, and the direct translation should have been “do the right thing in the right way.” Despite this, the statement still conveys a certain warning.
If Trump sincerely wishes to visit China, we hope that the American side, especially Rubio, will act prudently regarding China’s core interests, especially on the Taiwan issue. If Rubio can make a statement on certain occasions and address China’s concerns, a peaceful visit to China could be possible.
Additionally, controversial issues in other regions, especially delicate matters surrounding China, should not replace provocations from American politicians. Overall, the phrase “take care” sends a clear warning to the American side, reminding them to avoid excessive risks when dealing with U.S.-China relations; otherwise, exchanges between the two sides will become extremely difficult. While the specific content is rich and diverse, its main meaning can be summarized as: never exceed China’s financial limits.
SO: Let’s talk about Trump’s policy toward China after taking office. It basically continues his previous style: creating bargaining chips from scratch, pointing fingers and hitting others, demanding exorbitant prices, being capricious, and even changing orders every day. Is this how he operates on issues like tariffs and small exemptions? Is Trump’s unpredictability a tactical move or is there something wrong with the decision-making mechanism around him that is incapable of making effective and sustainable decisions?
Jin Canrong: Dealing with Trump requires abandoning conventional ways of thinking. Trump’s leadership style is very different from traditional leaders, and his actions are erratic. During his first term, Trump was characterized by “governing the country through Twitter”; now, it seems he still does what he wants and often acts “on a whim.” He prides himself on his style of governance, which he calls “the art of the deal.” Despite this, one of his major goals has remained steadfast: to Make America Great Again (MAGA). The goal is very clear. Trump will implement the “America First” strategy and revitalize the United States through various means.
For many small countries, Trump’s “bluffing” approach often forces them to surrender. For example, not long ago, Colombia refused to accept deported illegal immigrants, but after Trump imposed tariff sanctions, Colombia immediately changed its position. This strategy was successful in many countries, but it did not work with China because China’s national strength has grown significantly.
Although some public intellectuals and independent media have recently exaggerated the growing GDP gap between China and the United States, claiming that China’s share of the U.S. GDP will drop from 77% in 2021 to 61% in 2024, and suggesting that the U.S. economic advantage over China is widening, people are gradually realizing that these numbers are not entirely accurate. The hidden reason behind this is the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and inflation in the U.S. According to purchasing power parity calculations, China’s GDP is close to 130% of the U.S.’s, while according to CIA calculations, China’s GDP is close to 160% of the U.S.’s.
China has far surpassed the U.S. in productivity. Take steel as an example. China’s annual production is 1.35 billion tons, while the U.S. produces only tens of millions of tons. In shipbuilding, China’s production is 232 times greater than the U.S. In cement production, China’s output is also 50 times greater than the U.S. There is a huge gap between China and the U.S. in almost all areas of production. In grain, vegetable, and meat production, China is not only far ahead in production but has also surpassed many developed countries in per capita protein consumption.
In this sense, economist Wang Tao proposed the concept of “clearing the field and being far ahead,” which was later cited by Professor Zhang Weiwei. This term generated criticism from some public intellectuals, who used it to attack Professor Zhang. When we were having dinner, Wang Tao mentioned: “This is a word I invented. If you have any objections, you can debate me directly. Why bother reprimanding Professor Zhang?” As a science student, Mr. Wang Tao has a lot of data support, worked on the front lines, and worked at ZTE. Facing the debate with public intellectuals, he undoubtedly has the advantage.
Today, China’s productivity is far ahead of the U.S., so China has nothing to fear from Trump’s behavior. Trump’s tough foreign policy has no effect on China.
Historically, the rise of the West depended on industrialization, and today, China’s rise also depends on industrialization. However, unlike the West, China’s industrialization is happening on a large scale. One of the most notable facts in the world is that China has achieved industrialization, established the largest and most complete industrial system in the world, and possesses strong innovation capabilities.
Based on these confidences, the Chinese government has remained calm in the face of Trump’s impact. Online self-media and public intellectuals often try to influence the Chinese people by creating panic and spreading negative news. They consider the Chinese to be vulnerable objects, but in reality, they are a group of “swindlers” who make a living creating panic.
In the military field, China has gradually surpassed the United States in some aspects. On September 25 of last year, China successfully launched the Dongfeng-31AG intercontinental missile and completed a full flight test. During the same period, there were issues with intercontinental missile tests by the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom. France claimed that their intercontinental missile tests also had results, but these were not observed. It is estimated that their test was merely a PowerPoint presentation. Therefore, among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the only country that actually completed a successful test launch was China. Moreover, China not only has the DF-31AG but also the DF-41, and the DF-51 is about to be launched.
At the Zhuhai Air Show, China displayed a large number of drones, including the “Jiutian” drone system, capable of carrying several sub-drones. Its cargo hold contains several “babies” and can fly over 8,000 kilometers. If these drones are deployed on aircraft carriers, it will be difficult for opponents to defend against them. At the same time, the J-35A also made its debut at the airshow, and on the anniversary of the great man’s birth, both North and South tested China’s sixth-generation aircraft, achieving leadership over the United States.
The United States is keeping an eye on China and tries to exert pressure through various means, but now that it sees China has a comprehensive and strong national power, American suppression of China seems futile. The most typical example is that, in the first half of last year, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Samuel Paparo imagined using unmanned combat systems to attack China. He planned to threaten China by creating a “hellish scene” through a large-scale drone offensive, intending to make mainland China worried about using force against Taiwan. However, after the Zhuhai Air Show, Paparo changed his position. He realized that if the U.S. could deploy 3,000 drones, China could deploy 300,000. The end result would be that the United States would be overwhelmed by Chinese drones, not the other way around.
Today, China’s military power in its nearby seas exceeds that of the United States. While the United States focuses on global maritime strategy and is capable of facing China in the deep Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and other regions, China does not necessarily need to engage. China’s strategic goal is very clear: to achieve reunification and defend the country.
There is a fundamental flaw in the U.S. strategy: its goal is global control, which requires the U.S. to be able to attack any country at will. In contrast, China’s current sole strategic objective is “reunification,” and China has set this goal as the minimum requirement to ensure that the United States cannot exert pressure at will. Currently, China has the capability to achieve this goal, which has undoubtedly broken the strategic logic of the United States. The U.S. strategic gap is that, when examining its own capabilities, it can only come to one conclusion: “I can attack anyone I want,” but that does not include China.
In the future, if we decide to start a fight with the United States, China can make it clear: “You cannot use force against countries with close relations with China, such as Cambodia, Thailand, Pakistan, etc.” In this case, the only choice for the United States is to accept: “I can target anyone I want, except China and the countries it protects.” This list will continue to expand over time.
As long as this door remains open, all countries that have been oppressed by the United States will seek support from China, just as they did when they went to Yan’an, and thus will join the ranks of China, forming an ever-expanding protection field. Although China’s strategy remains defensive in nature, as its national power grows, China also has the capability to challenge the global hegemony of the United States.
China’s performance in the field of science and technology also cannot be ignored. The recently released Nature Index shows that China’s advantages in scientific research are becoming increasingly prominent. In the results of physics research for the 12 months starting in November 2023, China’s leading scientific research institutions, including the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the University of Science and Technology of China, and Tsinghua University, ranked among the top three in the world, while the top-ranked institution in the United States ranked 13th, proving that China is at the forefront of global scientific research.
Furthermore, in terms of the number of global patent applications, China accounted for more than half of the global share of patents, demonstrating strong innovation capabilities. For example, China’s large AI model, “DeepSeek,” shocked the world and became a major breakthrough in the field of science and technology.
In terms of robotics technology, Hangzhou’s Yushu Robotics has surpassed U.S. humanoid robots and has become the focus of global attention. Although Hangzhou is a relatively small city, it has demonstrated great potential for innovation and has become an emerging force in the technology sector. At the same time, China’s gaming industry is also growing rapidly, and “Black Myth: Wukong,” by Feng Ji, has become a highlight in the global gaming industry.
These achievements show that China’s strength in science, technology, and industrial innovation has surpassed many traditional powers and even the United States in some areas.
It is clear that we still need to continue our efforts in certain areas. The financial sector remains our weak point. For a long time, the global financial market has been dominated by the United States, which has continuously harvested wealth from other countries through financial means, thereby transferring China’s economic interests. This imbalance reflects China’s relative weakness in the global financial system.
The intellectual community and the elite of China have not yet fully freed themselves from their dependence on the United States. Despite the remarkable progress made in the economic and technological fields, many elites still have a psychological “kneeling” complex. This psychological imbalance sometimes makes China more complacent when facing international pressure, and the wealth painstakingly earned by many ordinary people is often lost in these “kneelings.” This is an internal problem that China urgently needs to resolve.
In short, when the “version 2.0” of the Trump administration began to be implemented and frequently provoked disputes, China remained extremely calm and did not panic. Behind this calmness is total control and confidence over domestic issues, as well as China’s rapid development in industrialization, scientific and technological innovation, and military fields, which have laid a solid foundation to face future challenges. As long as China can steadily advance internal reforms and do what it intends to do well, it will be able to effectively respond to the challenges posed by the United States.
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165 responses to “Trump and the Tooth Fairy”
Jeff, what would you make of Trump’s suggestion to use Chinese and Brazilian military on a separation line between Ukrainian and Russian military forces? Is Trump going to give Ukraine away not only to Russia, but to China as well? That would give such a good start for China to take over Europe.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/washington-pushes-non-european-peacekeepers-for-ukraine-ceasefire-50490638.html
And another thing I heard from negotiations between Russia and Trump. Russia is asking in exchange for stopping the war for all the pro-Russian parties to be brought back to Ukrainian parliament, including Communist party that was legally banned in Ukraine a while ago. It shows that they do have some long-term strategy for overtaking Ukraine. War is far from being over.
What would I say about Brazil and China interposing troops between Russia and Ukraine. Laughable! Trump is wearing a clown suit!
I agree. A lot of Ukrainian observers are sceptical that there would be any blocking troops in Ukraine, from any country. And some say that no matter what deal is signed at the top, the Ukrainian army might choose not to stop. Just like at the beginning of war, while Zelenskiy failed war preparation, listening to russian agents in his immediate surrounding, some army generals were doing their secret preparations, which was against the law. But that and huge motivation of the ordinary people was the reason, why Russia did not take Kyiv in 3 days. It was self-organization, similar to how it was during revolutions.
Great comment, Valentina. Ukraine is unique in its revolution and the way the Ukrainians have stood up to Russia. Think of their courage and our smallness. I am ashamed as an American.
Ukraine has advantage of clearly defined enemy, while things are foggy in USA. You are doing a great job uncovering hidden truth. Very unique combination of knowledge and clear moral compass.
I am very pleased that the Ukrainians are standing up to Trump.
J. R. Nyquist, do you think the Russian-Chinese alliance is very strong or could there be a rupture? In your view, does the USA have the capacity to resist a Russian-Chinese attack?
You said that the Chinese want to clean up the USA and replace them with the Chinese, but wouldn’t it be more interesting for China to dominate Russia?
The Russian-Chinese alliance is very very strong.
Dear Jeff, Trump’s strategic machinations are like that of a sick lion infected with a tapeworm who is trying to convince a HYENA to break with another HYENA, or HYENAS from the same pack. Obviously, such a strategy is doomed to abysmal failure.
There are simple rules that should be understandable to anyone with, at least, two functioning grey cells: Every time we lose a country, a region, or a city on behalf of the BEAST, we become weaker, and the BEAST becomes stronger. Every time we allow the BEAST to murder a dissident or neutralize him by a long and brutal imprisonment, we become weaker, and the BEAST becomes stronger.
There are also other more or less obvious rules that should drive our policy
1. If we want to have peace, we have to be eternally prepared for war and we have to arm ourselves as if the was about to start tomorrow and our military has to train as if the war has already started.
2. A small war prevents a big war just like a visit to a dentist, as unpleasant as it is, prevents a tooth from decaying and ultimately from losing it. If we lose a small war, we, certainly, can expect a big war in the near future. It looks like the war on Ukraine has forced the Russian/Chinese alliance to postpone attack on and eventual invasion of America. Unfortunately, Trump and his cohort are completely impervious both to this possible scenario and to tragic experience from the past.
3. To defeat EVIL, we have to PULVERISE it. Those words were spoken by Marko Bulgaric a professor of ethics at Brisbane University in Australia. This is exactly what Israel is doing with Hamas, and this is what America and NATO should do to Russia.
Because we are weak and demoralized, we are forced to conduct never ending speculations about objectives of our degenerate enemies.
However, as I mentioned before, Polish President Andrzej Duda met with Trump few weeks ago in Paris where they had very friendly and cordial exchange of views. After this meeting Duda expressed his great confidence that Trump would not abandon Ukraine. Duda is one of few heads of states with whom Trump has very good relationship that dates his first term so Polish President’s words carry some weight as I believe.
Regards – Bogdan
Thank you, Bogdan. When many left-of-center critics of Trump are holding back their criticism, — waiting to see — we should also have some caution. Moscow is running out of money. Conditions in Russia are going to deteriorate further. Of course, conditions in Ukraine are worse. But the Ukrainians are determined to resist. Trump still has not destroyed Ukraine. And Ukraine will not accept his dictate. No peace deal is therefore possible until mid-year at the earliest. It is going to be interesting to see what Europe does as well.
Jeff, I think the 1st “assassination attempt” was a phony staged show with sacrifices.
There is an annoyance or anger among Russian nationalists and war bloggers that blames China for not helping Russia more and selling drones to Ukraine. However, pending any surprise nationalist take over , anything of that leaning in Russia is always going to be short circuited by the communist party. Effectively the communist apparatus is acting like a military running the affairs in Europe. Any soldier complaint or thoughts of suicide in the military are always oriented to blaming a third party, like the wife, money issues etc… never a superior or bad leadership. Every single blogger on the right and the left in Europe, for instance, never blames China for covid, but always the “self”, which is own government. It is uncanny that these institutions which would normally never allow themselves to be blamed would rather allow being blamed on false pretense of allowing dissent but never China (both left and right), and never Russia if you are the right AfD in Germany. This is an obvious short circuiting of people’s thinking.
This short circuiting, you can bet it is in place for Russia and China to make it more than taboo to criticize Russia or China but the US instead. It does not mean that they will not stress each other and haze each other as happens within ranks, but in the legalities, history and story line, in the end, it always will be the US, just as for Iran the pan arab focus work always is the great and small satan, US and Israel.
Actually, in my opinion, the CCP has the man pegged 100%…
“In essence, they see Trump as an immoral person. He only cares about his place in history. Therefore, he has no real ideological commitments. They believe his team member choices are based on the three factions which make up his political coalition: (1) MAGA is the first; (2) the Establishment Republican Party; (3) right wing tech. The CCP thinks these three groups cannot get along.”
The late Rush Limbaugh himself said long ago that Donald Trump was unique as a politician as he was not an ideologue politically speaking.
Fact of the matter today? Trump 2.0 still has traitorous Americans on his “team” who are “guiding him” regarding world affairs. IMO, Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk are the top 2 evil influences.
Then there’s this draft contract that Trump just presented to Zelensky. The only reason why Trump could decide to help out Ukraine is if there’s an exorbitant payout attached. Only problem is that Russia could make him an even better offer, and why wouldn’t he accept that instead. It’s easier and cheaper for Russia and the US to agree to split Ukraine’s natural resources between them, rather than the US supporting both Ukraine’s defense and natural resources development. Such a deal would go a long way toward cementing Russia as the US’s partner against China, as by all accounts is Trump’s goal.
https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/17/revealed-trump-confidential-plan-ukraine-stranglehold/
If everything with Trump is just meaningless words and clever 4D chess, then maybe this contract is really an invitation to Russia to make a counter-offer.
https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/1891183505729536479
Even Kellogg is getting behind the idea of breaking the Russia-China alliance. But instead of bribing Putin, he thinks there is a way for the US to forcibly break Russia away from China, Iran, and North Korea.
Trump is bullying Ukraine mercilessly. This is unbelievable.
Yes, the Kellogg quote is mind-boggling.
The Chinese assessment is shrewd.
If Chinese feed Trump’s personality into their super powerful AI, they would know his “unpredictable” moves for every possible situation)))
Mr. Wang told me that the Chinese no longer think he is so unpredictable. I am afraid that this game requires a sophistication he does not have. His advisors do not understand Russia or the ruling strata in Russia. This is a great tragedy. The world is headed for serious trouble.
The right is getting shirt circuited to follow the communist party line to not criticize Russia.
1. Trump talking peace while Russia speaks and cares only about victory made me nearly vomit. As Ben Franklin said, this is a recipe for getting neirther peace nor security, ie completely unamerican. But this typical corner lot car dealership mindset does not surprise me from this Trump Bronx slum lord bunch. They all are schizophrenic like that.
2. Seems like Trump has not learned from getting kicked in the groin when he trusted the Russian embassy dirt on Clinton trap. It is obvious his stance on Ukraine is now going to be used by democrats and the deep state to build a case against him … with the help of blackmailing and informing Putin, again
3. The idiot general right wing language focuses on not helping crooked Ukraine, when this is not about Ukraine but a war declared by Russia on the US. But no amount of effort can get through these thick cowardly skulls. And by the way, Diana West already noted a Maga split on Israel with dumdum chicom asset Candace Owens trying to mobilize christians against jews and for Palestine, another dumb third world picking at winners for a regional power when the war is obviously at large on the world and the US hold on trade routes.
Or maybe he does not realize that the brazillian and Chinese troops will be enrolled as cannon fodder by force the way obviously UN troops in Lebanon have. It is as if this blue helmet thing is a troop conditioning program to obey and acknowledge leftist soviet authority, siding against jews and this time Ukrainians.
This is indeed not accidental that Trump came up with this idea. Who let it slip to him? Being from the Bronx, these slum lord dealer types are catastrophe minded. Something goes wrong, they split, all plans off, complete low mafia style gang land style debacle. Trump has been ill counseled by the black community. He had this black girlfriend and now this stone cold soulless faced schizo skier bread in former communist prostituted Slovenia… oof. Not good to simp like this. This debacle mindset is typical feminine, single motherhood simp type. No planning, nothing, where Biden was shamefully hiding behind layers of cryptic deep state clothing, Trump’s narcissistic exhibitionism without clothes sound like the behavior of a widow not knowing how to mourn her loss of soul substitute in her man going away, since she had integrated him and only felt what he felt, not herself all those years.
Immoral for a Chinese mean several things. It first means to be too liberal, siding with this and that, changing like a weathervane, only Marxist when convenient and virtue signalling. Maoists view that as the white liberal, the typical democrat, as always being some kind of collaborator in cahoots with Jim Crow, Trail of Tears and general colonization of China and opium wars for profits. In a more general manner it is the Marxist’s unconscious or intuitive abhorance and hatred of Freud making money from women leaving the “opiate distributing church confession halls” to be debauched in Freud’s room.
Marxists always had a visceral hatred of the like of Freud, and so they default with the term “immoral” when stuck in their own self defeating behaviors and madness. Let us not forget that Marx invented the stages of his own suicide, ethnic and personal but also socilogical suicide. In a way Marx was actually a sociologist: from feudalism to communism, passing through capitalism, they see Trump being at these various stages of suicide and weak. However, where Marx blathered and babbled a lot in intellectualism, Freud was quiet and acted!
Religion as opium of the people? Good! I will distribute them religion, theology, confession and opiate medicines, all in one, in my little office of one stop shopping mall of metaphysics.
Woke Marxist ideology? Good! I will have an office to love bomb them and make them speak and speak on their soap box, transforming the public arena into a psychiatric office, where the doctor stays quiet, makes money, while the rest of the word speaks nonsense around.
A liberal, after all, is a Marxist who had been tempted to Freud’s office, who has admitted that no one can obey religious rules, and especially not scientific secular ones even, and that it is not how it works, even rationality being incapable of controlling passions. Freud had even underestimated and misunderstood his own role when he was aghast at the savagery of WWI and WWII, not understanding how a modern advanced world could go down like this. He should have been more honest and seen the writing on the wall when the Soviets got nuclear weapons. But, perhaps, a demon in him thought too that nukes are good psychoanalytical office validating instrument the same as wokism, in terms of turning every weakling intellectual to catastrophism ideologies blaming money for it.
I surmise the secret of Stalin in organizing Soviet society the way he had learned the schizophrenic aspects of the Russian Orthodox bureaucracy is that he was more a man of action like Freud, while our “democracies” have become places of too many words and blowhards at various stages of intellectual catastrophism. The propaganda and soap box of the dictator is just that, just words to egg on others to make words, they are “action-words”, “active measures”, what not.
Clearly Trump has been activated on and hence his now more and more incoherent wordism and awkwardness, losing momentum quick. Money is a shadow 2D thing, it is better to battle with money thus than 3D, and so Trump has that initially good instinctive but too desperate capitalist orientedness toward peace. He risks becoming passive and emasculated quickly as a result. His change of minds and metamorphosis indicate a transhuman like operation on him by the opposite camp which stays stuck on bloody action and blood shed, feeding hungry emasculated Marxist 2D gods needing continuous sadistic reification through abuse that way.
It is crazy that Trump sees not in Zelensky a smilar 2D person as himself, ostentianly just as woke in showbiz as Trump once was. This looks like a dispute of “girls”, a “cage aux folles”, and no one is seeing that so emasculated democracies have become with everything in projected 2 dimensional discussions fearing 3D actions and not embracing the nukes, to be honest. Even the body is capable of accepting a immune system and metamorphosis challenge with radiation, but the mind in 2D intellectual addiction and catastrophism is weak.
What does Trump think would be caused by Brazilian and Chinese troop deaths in such a situation? Is he expecting resulting friction between the two red powers? And why particularly Brazil? It would be nice to think he had some supporting intelligence for such chess moves, but as Sam Faddis reminds us, where would such intelligence come from?
These blocking troops won’t die. They will let the Russians pass through them!
“J. R. NYQUIST – DEUTSCHE AUSGABE” (seit 2014): Der Vergleich macht Sie sicher …
27. 9. 2019: “Ist Rußland insgeheim kommunistisch?”
https://jrnyquistdeutsch.wordpress.com/2025/02/18/ist-rusland-insgeheim-kommunistisch/
[…] von Jeff Nyquist […]
You align yourself with an obvious rightwing-Bolshevik, who isn’t even able to do proper translations! But it’s your work, not mine. Good luck with such people. No more first-class translations for you any more from my side. The East-German communist has won – and you have lost …
I have no power to control who translates me. I am only one person, without money, without credibility, without time. I am literally a beggar, taking help where I find it. Others may judge which helpers have betrayed me. Between caretaking dying parents and working to stay alive, I have done what I could. I worked a day job, then played nurse for four years. My helpers are true or false and outside my control. They will do what they do whether I permit them or not. I have no power to sort them. I barely have time to breathe. I suffocate under the criticism of a persons who think they can do better. Go ahead. Do better. The field is wide open. I’m not hindering you.
Sam Faddis had an interesting piece regarding the Chinese spy balloon that “China Joe” allowed to fly over many of our military bases and nuclear facilities as it headed to the East Coast before finally being shot down.
The concern Faddis brings out is that there were “gliders” on the balloon and could be released near targets of interest. Gliders that can be outfitted with sensors. When this balloon was recovered, the container that held these gliders was empty. So the question posed is, are there sensors near our bases, our nuclear facilities transmitting data back to the CCP?
Concerning to say the least.
Time article from 2023
https://time.com/6256389/chinas-spy-balloons-intelligence-mission/
Actually, Biden ordered the balloons to be shut down immediately. It was Gen. VanHerk who allowed the balloons to pass, with careful safeguards.
Ok I stand corrected on who ordered what. But the issue as I stated, was there sensors on these gliders that were dropped on American soil. And if so, are these still out there transmitting information to our enemy, China?
How do you know this? General VanHerk told me that they countered all the Chinese technology in the balloons. They were closely monitoring the balloons from the time they first entered North American sir space.
https://open.substack.com/pub/andmagazine/p/are-there-chinese-sensors-on-us-nuke?r=2owyko&utm_medium=ios
I didn’t want to see it, but now I do, trump is a gay prostitute for the world communist movement!
THE CUBAN AND THE RUSSIAN:
U.S. and Russia agree to restore embassy staffing in high-level talks on Ukraine war.
The meeting between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart marked a turning point in relations between Washington and Moscow.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-russia-talks-ukraine-europe-invasion-rcna192544
RESET IN RIYADH:
As U.S. and Russian Officials Meet, Talks Are Set to Go Beyond Ukraine
The two sides are meeting in Saudi Arabia for their most extensive discussions in years. In addition to Ukraine, business ties are on the table.
https://archive.is/2025.02.18-064547/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/world/europe/us-russia-saudi-ukraine.html
UKRAINE LEFT OUT!:
REUTERS
Russia hardens demands as it holds first talks with US and without Ukraine
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/europe-says-committed-ukraine-ahead-045647324.html
‘F*** TRUMP DEAL’:
‘F— Trump and his deal’: Ukraine’s US veterans rail against peace plan:
Veterans fighting for Zelensky’s foreign legion label president a ‘coward’ who won’t stand up to Putin
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/02/17/trump-deal-putin-us-military-volunteers-ukraine-peace/
RISKS MAKING WAR WORSE?:
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin’s Russia-Ukraine deal risks making a bad war even worse
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-vladimir-putin-donald-trump-b1211794.html
UKRAINE TO BE CARVED UP:
EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine ‘ready to be carved up’ by Trump and Putin as meeting ‘shows where power lies’:
Top diplomats from Russia and the US met in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss negoitating an end to the war in Ukraine – despite not having any officials from Kyiv at the table
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukraine-ready-carved-up-trump-34700823
_______________
Jeff I just left a half a dozen article headlines with brief first paragraph or two, with their links, that hasn’t showed up on the posting, may have duplicated, but please check. I got more to add a little later. But what I just now sent will deepens the fears of all of us.
I approved them.
Dear Jeff, surprise, surprise! I just watched the second interview with prof. Zharkova by Tom Nelson on his channel where Zharkova has clearly showed eccentricity of Sun’s rotation and its link to the giant planet. I wrote an extensive post on that subject, and it was deleted again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SawIG4TNpHQ&t=2545s
So, clearly, someone is watching closely this discussion and doing everything to limit its access to the wider audience even if it was no longer possible to silence Zharkova herself.
Regards – Bogdan
What giant planet? I am mystified. I will look in the spam folder. It must be somewhere.
No, no… It was supposed to be giant planets. Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Just a grammatical mistake of mine. I wanted to draw your attention to the persistent censorship of the discussion taking place on YouTube concerning the subject of Grand Solar Minimum and its link with the alignment of the four planetary giants.
Someone is investing enormous effort to control the narrative. I call those forces THE BEAST which I define as a COLLECTIVE QUASI SPIRITUAL EXISTENCE OF ALL HUMAN PARASITES. In that case, those are communists and the one of the derivatives, the ecofascists in particular.
Regards – Bogdan
They don’t want the West to know what is coming, and the food crisis it entails. Right? If we are caught unprepared and starvation looms, a revolutionary situation occurs. The government will be to blame. Obedience comes to an end.
P.S: Below is the link to the interview with Zharkova and at 42.30 minutes Zharkova makes this animated display of Sun’s distorted rotation. The presentation she gave to Tom Nelson was, perhaps, her best so far.
Regards – Bogdan
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/QgrcJHrhvWStBtMwwhJCBTmJnpdxGlvmPzB?projector=1
Or, perhaps, this link would be better.
Regards – Bogdan
https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/1891967011007213651?t=xXImuNdWz-WJNP27SSPwqA&s=19
https://x.com/saintjavelin/status/1891989180181274992?t=GljtjAIKa2y-10kUL9QGeA&s=19
The Kremlin monsters are sadists.
This could be the beginning of rivalry between the three main groups that firm Trump’s base. Bannon lashes out at Musk:
https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1891917278028915171?t=mjtuGnx04WkXqL3HNWN6hA&s=19
Consider how this plays out.
Olavo tried to infom this Bannon guy of the dangers of the eurasian strategic objectives and how it would play conservatives and patriotic ideologies, but it seems Bannon wasn’t interested in positioning himself against Dugin. In the end, instead of being seen as someone who was trying to alert Bannon, he was put as part of some bannon’s radical group, because Olavo was at a dinner with him and some other people. The person that made up that interpretation never read or seen anything of Olavo’s thinking and opinions, but since he was there, this was enough for being considered as part of a right wing conspiracy. Bannon seems to always seek influence on Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo.
I can’t speak of his writing, but it seems he is more interested in creating a network in politics and his actions always results in favoring eurasian influence. He is being celebrared in the right for speaking against the lawfare of the politicians in the Supreme Court.
It was unfortunate that Olavo’s picture was taken with Bannon, and that assumptions were then made about Olavo because of it. When I saw the picture of them together I grieved, as I knew Bannon was bad news. In 2018 Bannon trued to make an alliance with Dugin, but Dugin thought he was too stupid and had no idea what to make of such a person. Leave him to Miles Guo. Easier.
Interesting analysis. I wonder if Trump’s view that God supports him comes from that assassination attempt. Weird how that one event and an inch can decide history. Speaking of that assassination attempt, it’s impressive how fast that disappeared from the news, it would be nice to know if there was a real international conspiracy behind it, and if so, from who? Seems unlikely he was truly a lone wolf?
Ukraine is an underdog, who suffered under communism due to Russia, and is now fighting for independence and freedom – seems like a great idea for Republicans to get behind!
Daniel Ashman: I know from a publicly known former CIA officer who stated to me that it was his assessment(s) that Trump’s would-be- assassin was controlled by a female Cuban intelligence officer agent.
Our fate is determined at a level much higher than the plane of conspiracy, lol.
https://open.substack.com/pub/nevingussack/p/useful-idiots-on-the-right-ten-years-1e5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2jewlq
I like Nevin’s quote from Putin. It was a quote I found in the Russian press years ago which hinted at Putin’s underlying communist beliefs. He says similar things elsewhere.
brilliant
https://x.com/olddog100ua/status/1892107559802134865?t=gccUhLRLbnW14J5oduhALQ&s=19
Don’t know if you heard the latest podcast between Jeff and Trevor Loudon today. Jeff’s geopolitical take is very jarring to Trevor, who was a little taken back. To sum it up, Ukraine bleeding is good for the West because it hurts Russia, without the West having to lift a finger. The longer it drags out the better, though maybe not for Ukraine. Its fight went from being akin to the US War of Independence to just a Soviet Civil War. And if Ukraine is a Soviet country it can’t be afforded the same considerations as a Western country. Giving (symbolic) NATO membership to Ukraine would provoke Russia, but not the US giving Ukraine more arms or putting troops on the ground to defend its investment in rare earth minerals. Trump is just leading on Russia until its economy collapses. But 3 years later it still doesn’t look like Russia’s economy is anywhere close to collapse, and if there’s no peace deal Russia can continue the war for much longer than Ukraine.
https://www.americaoutloud.news/navigating-geopolitical-chess-insights-from-trevor-loudon-and-jeff-nyquist-on-trumps-strategy-in-ukraine/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=SocialSnap
Despite the shrillness of the pro-Russia section of MAGA, only 8% of Americans currently have a favorable view of Russia, with 92% unfavorable. In 1989 around 60% had a favorable view. Trump could easily go against his “base” and take a much tougher public position against Russia, and he’d probably win instead of lose support.
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1891978282133762207
No, I haven’t heard that podcast, but I’ll listen to it while driving today.
I cannot go along with what Nyquist is saying, and I don’t understand why he is saying it. He says we’ve got to be careful or Russia can attack us. This does not mesh with the tenor of his writing over the years. It’s always been a given they will attack us if/when they get the opportunity. Why tip toe around them now?
Jeff, you told me after the comments closed after the last essay, that strategy is brutal, and is not what we want to believe.
Well, I’m no brilliant strategist and not nearly as widely read as you, but this take is very cynical, and surely there are other ways.
And, if Trump is carrying out some sophisticated strategy, why did he promote Tulsi Gabbard as DNI?
You used to be robustly in support of the righteous cause of Ukraine, and supplying them with what they need for the war. This kind of talk is disappointing to me. But, to each his own, I suppose.
You often speak of honor and chivalry. How is Trump acting so honorable in the face of open evil?
You also told me that most of us will likely be mass murdered in our sleep. Well, that is possible, but only God will determine whether or not that happens. I’m okay with however He sees fit to take me out of here, though I may not prefer that way. My Dad always said he wanted to go in his sleep, but he suffered for two years leading up to his death, so no man gets to say how we are going to go.
I do not understand why it is so difficult and confusing to talk realistically about strategic problems. I have never wavered from supporting Ukraine. I believe we should pour resources into Ukraine. Where do I contradict these fundamental positions? How many times do I have to repeat myself? I also believe we must hurt the Russian economy and not let Russia trade in Europe. I say it over and over again. This is easily said. However, the nuances of my thinking have never been fully stated, and perhaps you imagined I wanted NATO membership for Ukraine. Or that I thought Ukraine could retake Crimea. It would be nice to see Ukraine in NATO, and it would be nice to have Ukraine’s borders restored. But, how many lives are we willing to lose in a wider war? Can Ukraine sustain this war much longer without NATO troops? Please do not think I am reversing myself or my basic thinking. I have never said Ukraine should be in NATO. I never wrote that essay. I never thought it was a workable idea. You might say I am betraying Ukraine by accepting the impracticability of Ukraine in NATO, but I am hoping to save Ukraine while collapsing Russia without inadvertently strengthening Russia. What the Kremlin needs is the support of the Russian people. I do not want them to have that support so I oppose Ukraine being in NATO. Why should we bind the Russian people to their evil rulers by doing this? Furthermore, Russia and China might feel that they can justify a nuclear war if Ukraine is made part of NATO. It might be their best move, also. I know that I would opt for a nuclear war if I were a Russian or Chinese leader under those circumstances. So I put myself in their place. It does not matter if my missiles are unreliable. One super EMP warhead is all I need if I am really desperate and feel my position in grave danger. NATO membership for Ukraine would signify grave danger for the hidden communist regime in Russia. Let’s be honest. There is strategy and there is morality. The two are interlocking. You can kill a lot of people by being childishly moralistic. Sometimes you think you are being moral, by invading Iraq for example, because you are liberating millions of people from an evil dictator. But the evil goes deeper and is more complex than you think, and what your liberation of Iraq does, in the end, is create a vacuum in which Iranian power effectively turns Iraq into a satellite of Iran, which ultimately causes Saudi Arabia to join BRICS, so that America’s strategic position erodes and a greater evil wins. We spent trillions for this “moral” outcome of democracy in Iraq. The road to Hell is paved with good intentions. We need to use our economic weapons together with supporting Ukraine to damage Russia’s position. Ukraine’s exact borders and NATO membership are relatively unimportant compared with America’s ability to cripple Russia and China without a nuclear war. This should not be a shocking thing for me to say.
Jeff, I didn’t mean to imply that you completely don’t support Ukraine, but to me, it seems if you are throwing your support behind Trump’s supposed strategy, then that your support de facto has wavered or will.
But, I guess that comes down to you really believing he is just talking and that words don’t matter, and that his actions are what matters. And I myself believing his words do matter, and not agreeing that he is carrying out a clever strategy, but instead betraying Ukraine.
As for strategy being brutal, sure, I know it can be. I take a little offense that you say or imply that I’m persisting in childish morality though, for you yourself still decry the assassination of Solemani as a dishonorable act even as you can be okay with Russia being allowed to keep some Ukrainian territory, in which Ukranians still live and are being brutally treated, and their children brainwashed.
I mean, to me, I’ve never been able to understand what was so bad about taking the life of a terrorist general whose life revolved around the deaths and destruction of innocent people. It would be one thing if *we* invited him to parley with us, and then killed him en route. But that was not the case.
So, what is the matter with me being upset that Trump would take it upon himself to allow Russia to keep Ukrainian territory because “they fought for it”, as part of some grand overall strategy?
To me, the decision should be Ukraine’s, and Ukraine’s alone. Zelensky himself said that Russia would at least have to restore the pre 2/22 borders, which I think just and reasonable.
You said in the discussion with Loudon that if Ukraine were allowed to join NATO, then that would allow Russia to galvanize its people against the West, because they could say this was a threat by NATO.
But they’re already saying that anyway, i.e., NATO was about to let Ukraine in and would thus be at Russia’s doorstep. This could not be allowed, so we invaded Ukraine.
Right? They already sell this is a proxy war of America/NATO against Russia.
Whether or not Ukraine should be in NATO, I don’t really have an opinion, but the lying Russians *already* frame it that way, and have been.
I also wonder why Trump tried to see to it that Tulsi Gabbard became DNI if he is carrying forth a sophisticated strategy against the Communists. Because to me, that would mean she is in on his strategy, or either she would somehow be completely neutralized in that position and he would obtain his real intelligence briefings from…? Where?
I also think there is no hope for a regime change in Russia. They would just replace Putin with someone they have waiting in the wings for the needed occasion. The Russian people have never threatened to overthrow the Communists -not any serious threat. They are so brainwashed and beaten down and really they are degraded as a people.
Also, we know that China already is helping Russia. There have long been reports of Chinese presence in the war. North Korea already sent thousands. You said if we push them too hard, that China will send troops, that it’s better to drag it out until Russia’s economy collapses. I don’t think they’re economy is going to collapse though. The bloc always has found a way to pull through, because they can depend on willful blindness of Western nations in choosing to trade with them. I’ve read that European nations are actually going around or ignoring sanctions and doing business with Russia.
It seems to me the Ukranians are still full of the will to fight. Because they know what surrender to Russia will bring…
I guess it comes down to you giving Trump the benefit of the doubt that he’s playing an elaborate strategic game against Russia, and I don’t believe he is.
Maybe you’ll prove to be correct. That would be nice.
I do not throw my support to people. I do analysis. I am not political. This should be obvious.
I said “throwing your support behind Trump’s supposed strategy.” Maybe it would be better to say, you are clearly in agreement with it, if that’s what it is.
I get it thougj.
No. You meant support. (Agreement is the same thing). My support and a Cracker Jacks decoder ring does nothing. I suggest possible interpretations, and express the hope that Trump may be doing X or Z. I say again we must wait a see. I am not a partisan who believes Trump is our savior.
Cool beans, Jeff
I don’t agree with abandoning Ukraine.
Thank you.
I just feel deep down that Trump really is betraying Ukraine.
As you said, time will tell.
Yes. We need to discuss as many angles and ideas we can. Strategy is not a moralistic thing. It is about moves on a chess board.
I understand that, but to me, if abandoning Ukraine (areas occupied since February ’22), is part of a Trump strategy, I would say that is an unacceptable aspect on moral grounds. *Unless* Ukraine said it must be given up for some reason. I would say that decision is their’s alone. Trump could imply or voice his opinion if he must, but should not try to strong arm them.
He is really disgusting me right now, and also on the domestic front, it seems this DOGE stuff has potential to cause a lot of harm.
Trump is disgustingly. I agree.
It would be great if he’s mainly trying to light a fire under Europe, but I fear its worse than that.
He has lit a fire under Europe. We must hope Europe mobilizes fast.
Yes he betraying Ukraine, and this very bad.
PS — strategic analysis means thinking out loud about different possibilities. It involves exploring. It is not a doctrine.
I am somewhat surprised that anyone should suppose my analysis opposes support for Ukraine. I have always believed in supporting Ukraine. That does not mean we send the 101st Airborne to Kursk, or escalate in a way that forces Russia to bring Chinese troops into the front, or use nukes, etc. one should not fall into the habit of saying Russia always bluffs any more than saying Russia always bluffs. This is an inherently dangerous situation. I am honestly surprised we have not triggered a wider war. One must ask why Russia continues to mobilize if a wider war is not contemplated? I think such a war has long been contemplated. They have a desire to destroy us. Nuclear war is an option. It may be unavoidable. I am trying to think my way through the strategy of navigating this.
I get that. But, I think they are going to attack us anyway, and I don’t know that anything will cause them to hold back when they are ready, or to goad them into it when they are not. I feel we should just do what’s right, and let the chips fall where they will. Maybe that’s naive of me, I don’t know.
We will be bombed and invaded. There is no hope of stopping a world war now.
What we must now hope for is that Trump’s negotiations with Russia end without result, since Ukraine and Europe were left out. Whatever Trump’s intentions, however stupid and immoral his rhetoric, a fire is being lit under Europe to support Ukraine. I pray that Ukraine and Europe stand up to Russia on their own. Trump has signaled that he will not stand up to Russia.
As I said just a few minutes ago on John Moore’s program, you answered my questions (speaking w Thomas from Germany) regarding Trump’s latest comments that seem to be anti Ukraine. Answer: He’s playing to his MAGA base.
When Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth goes to Germany and echoes what Trump and team have been saying for over a year….
1. NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table
2. The U.S. will no longer supply or pay for weapons and support for Ukraine
3. No U.S. troops to Ukraine
4. Ukraine will not be able to go back to the borders it had before 2014
This rhetoric is dangerous and misguided in my opinion.
The US is going back on a commitment to Ukraine from 1994.
Russia indeed poses an existential threat to Europe. Putin’s goal all along has been to re-establish the former Soviet Union.
And it is absolutely embarrassing to hear President Trump blame Ukrainian leaders for this (now) 3 year war. As if Zelensky invaded Russia?
Who exactly is advising him to say this? It’s as if they know nothing of Ukraine’s history regarding Russia and the latest invasion into a sovereign state.
It is absolutely embarrassing to hear Trump’s moral idiocy broadcast to the world. What Hegseth says is also objectionable, but only where he talks about no longer giving Ukraine military supplies. We must fill Ukraine with weapons. Ukraine must be supported. We must compel Europe to build weapons. We must rearm ourselves. I am now doubtful about Trump’s intention to support Ukraine and blockade Russia. Of course, actions are what matters. What will the United States actually do? Words are only words.
Jeff, do you believe Trump has a strategy that he’s not revealing? One that goes against what we hear recently with him, Vance, or Hegseth and Rubio spouting regarding Ukraine?
Why are all these folks going about publicly criticizing Ukraine?
If you’ll allow it, I’d like to post Hour 3 of the John Moore Show with you discussing Ukraine with Thomas of Germany and at about the 34 minute mark I also called in to speak to the Sam Faddis piece directed at the Chinese spy balloon incident of 2023.
https://player.blubrry.com/?podcast_id=142338543&media_url=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.blubrry.com%2Frbn%2Fins.blubrry.com%2Frbn%2Fstream_2025-02-19_085952.mp3&display=nw#
I think most of these people do not understand the nature of Russia. Most of them genuinely think an alliance with Russia is possible and that such an alliance is good strategy. This is sheer stupidity and ignorance on their part. They are little children with low maturity who believe in the Tooth Fairy. Whether Trump is using these people cynically, I do not know. Trump may be ignorant. He may be influenced by Russian agents of influence. He may be holding his cards close, laying a trap. We will know the answer soon. This strange business of negotiating without Ukraine’s cooperation is surreal. It makes no sense. How do you get an agreement? America cannot agree to end the war if Ukraine continues resist. Europe can continue to supply Ukraine. This has been shown. Does Trump then pull out of NATO? Does Trump give Moscow its biggest possible victory without asking for anything except an empty promise? If so, then he is a Russian agent or the biggest fool in American history. No exaggeration. Even if he does not consciously know that he is a Russian agent, he acts the part. His moral idiocy damns him. Please note: There is this category of agent — the fool who is under Russian influence without realizing it.
I’m no expert, but negotiating any sort of peace deal without having both sides involved sitting at the table? Absolutely makes no sense not to have Ukraine present.
Absolutely meaningless. What will the United States do?
Indeed. What WILL the U.S. do?
PS – And yes, strategy is brutal, so when I talk like a strategist it may offend your moral sense. But you must remember that strategic thoughts are thoughts. When we explore ideas we are not stating our preferences, neither are we outlining our moral principles. We are exploring moves in a game.
4D chess🤣 hopium
6D checkers?
I did not suggest America put troops in Ukraine. That was not said. The U.S. can help Ukraine defend by sending supplies. Sending American troops to Ukraine would morally strengthen the regime in Moscow. In terms of resources, the Russians and Chinese are attempting to control the world’s key minerals. Although Ukraine has now refused to give these resources to the U.S., Ukraine’s minerals going to America could break Moscow’s global strategy. My other point: Ukraine is fighting Russia as if it were a NATO country. Western troops in Ukraine, or NATO membership for Ukraine, would strengthen the Kremlin’s support from the Russian people who would feel threatened. NATO membership for Ukraine destabilizes the situation instead of stabilizing it. We don’t want to strengthen the (secret) communist regime by making it appear that we are engaged in a form of aggression against Russia. As for Russian economic collapse, I think a great deal of damage is occurring to the Russian economy which could lead to real change. We must not let Russian recover its lost revenue sources.
I guess I don’t see why making Ukraine a formal member of NATO would cause the Russian people to support Putin any more than loading Ukraine with Western weapons. I’m neutral on membership for Ukraine, but obviously it means a great deal to Ukrainians so it should not be ruled out categorically just to appease Russia. The war in Ukraine has been portrayed by Russia as a war with NATO since the beginning, despite Ukraine having no chance of membership then. Russia’s justification for the invasion was that NATO was in Ukraine and planning an imminent attack on Russia. After the full-scale invasion began Russian propaganda was still claiming there were thousands of NATO troops in Ukraine. And Russia considered every new weapon given to Ukraine as a new red line. The reason Russia didn’t do anything in response to the West crossing all those lines was because they were not ready to escalate yet. I agree with GreyKnight, that once Russia and China are ready to widen the war, they will find every possible justification, real and fake, for waging war against the US and NATO.
It is simple psychological calculus that many strategists agree on. You do not want to make your enemy’s difficult position more popular with his people.
PS — Thinking it unwise to admit Ukraine into NATO has nothing to do with appeasement. I have never thought such a move was wise or necessary. The fact is, NATO can defend Ukraine whether or not Ukraine is a member, and Ukraine can stop the Russian military and fight Russia without being a NATO member. Furthermore, NATO is a consensus organization in which all members must agree on a new member. That means it is unlikely all the countries will see the wisdom in admitting Ukraine to membership. Furthermore, nations that are at war are prohibited from being inducted into NATO anyway. This is a catch-22. It simply is not important from a strategic point of view, or practical, or convenient. The defense of Europe can be freely mounted without Ukraine being a member of NATO. This should be perfectly clear. I am not an appeaser of Russia by suggesting it.
‘Appease’ wasn’t the right word, what I meant was that the perception of being permanently frozen out of NATO candidacy would be giving a victory to the Russian narrative while demoralizing the Ukrainian people. I know that joining NATO in its present form is impractical because of the consensus decision-making requirement.
The hatred Trump is creating toward America will not bode well for us.
https://x.com/AnnaOdesitka/status/1892087341952663902?t=0n4E6EgidRZjhi4_h2gCuQ&s=19
I don’t think the Russian economy is going to collapse any time soon. Many EU countries are not complying with sanctions. According to an investigation by Greenpeace, Russia is using its fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers to sell millions of tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to EU ports.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1891907618081472990
https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1891874586028822703
Rubio says that sanctions on Russia will be lifted once the war is resolved. As a starting point in the negotiations US diplomats proposed a moratorium on attacks on the energy infrastructure of Russia and Ukraine (see Telegraph article).
https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/1891999918199316846
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that a partnership with Russia is on the horizon following the peace agreement.
—–
Busy day in Riyadh today. Russia has never held fair elections, but Zelensky is illegitimate because his mandate is less than one year over the limit. Trump agrees. He also blames Zelensky for Russia refusing to hold any serious negotiation until Trump was elected.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/02/18/zelensky-will-be-forced-hold-elections-under-us-russia-plan/
Donald Trump is demanding Volodymyr Zelensky hold elections that could oust him from office as the price of peace.
His comments came after Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, and Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, met in Saudi Arabia for the first time on Tuesday to discuss terms to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.
…Later on Tuesday, Mr Trump said the demand for a Ukrainian presidential election “came from me”.
Speaking from Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach he said: “We have a situation where we haven’t had elections in Ukraine, where we have martial law, essentially martial law in Ukraine, where the leader in Ukraine, I mean, I hate to say it, but he’s down at 4 per cent approval rating, and where a country has been blown to smithereens…
…Mr Trump defended his decision not to invite Ukraine to the Saudi Arabia talks, saying “they had three years” to end the war.
“I hear that they’re upset about not having a seat. Well, they’ve had a seat for three years and a long time before that, this could have been settled very easily,” he said.
Tuesday’s talks represented a consequential reset in relations between Russia and the US, with both countries agreeing to re-establish missions in their respective countries and to begin geopolitical and economic negotiations.
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has repeatedly questioned the legitimacy of Mr Zelensky’s presidency after he stayed in post beyond his term, which had been due to end in May last year.
Mr Rubio said he was “convinced” that Moscow was ready to engage in a “serious process” to end the war.
He said: “If the war ends, not only will the world be a better place, then I think there’ll be some pretty unique opportunities to work with [Russia] on areas of bilateral, geopolitical interests, and some very unique economic opportunities.
…[Mr Lavrov] told US negotiators that settling the war required a reorganisation of Europe’s defence agreements.
Moscow has long called for the withdrawal of Nato forces from eastern Europe, viewing the alliance as an existential threat on its flank.
Trump and Rubio are making fools of themselves. This is like the Munich conference in 1938. Ukraine will be destroyed by this process and Russia will invade Europe. America is destroying its own alliance system and the dollar. If we fail to protect countries from aggression, why should anyone want dollars?
Crypto maga meme coin instead of dollar👈🤣🤣
PS — Russia wants the U.S. out of Europe altogether. This is what Lavrov means by reorganizing Europe’s defense. If Trump agrees to this there will be serious danger of world war in the next few years.
Rember John Bolton was warning of this scenario years before Trump was re-elected. Seems he was rigjt.BTW in case anyone forgot, non NATO countries currently in a military conflict are prohibited from joining NATO.There is the argument that if Ukraine had been given the aid it required in s timely fashion that it could have won this war already.Biden and EU gave just enough to keep Ukraine from being completely overrun
Now that Ukraine is significantly exhausted I see them only treading water. EU and US aid drying up or at best retaining the status quo will not win this war. Trps talk of cutting our military budget is ludicrous. But what actually are we doing to rebuild? 2029 new nukes has not been scraped as far as I know, but we need an operation Warp Speed for defense and we certainly aren’t getting that.
I have to say, as a student of military affairs, that I do not believe Ukraine can defeat the Russian Army by pushing it completely off Russian territory. They do not have the people to sacrifice in such an effort. Rather, this is a war of attrition because war now favors the defender. Russian artillery and helicopters and air power can stop any Ukrainian offensive. This stalemate can only be broken if the war finally exhausts the morale of the Russian people, which will take more time. Maybe two years. Read Clausewitz. The side that demoralizes first is the side that loses. That’s how Ukraine wins. And it is cheaper in lives and money than the alternative.
As if Trump or any other US president wouldn’t declare martial law if 20 of territory was invaded by Russia?
Friends, this is new interview with the strategist, who is in the decision making group in Kyiv. This general came to USA in October 2021 to warn directly of the war , dates and details. ALL EXACT. We absolutely MUST follow all publications by Budanov. And never forget that War is won by deception. The task for top commander is to INFORM THE NATION correctly and at the same time to deceive the enemy. All news in time of war are fake news, all of them
https://defence24.com/geopolitics/gen-budanov-for-defence24-russia-will-try-to-drive-a-wedge-between-poland-and-ukraine
I recommend to watch this 23 mins video, where a guy very clearly and logically spells out, why America has a weak position in negotiating peace. It is AI translated with excerpts of direct speech from Lavrov, American representatives and Trump himself, plus commentaries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SPjCA32GoI
The commentator here is Sergey Lubarskiy. He is an American citizen of Ukrainian origin. He monitors very closely all aid given to Ukraine and has the most accurate numbers. He created several organizations to help Ukraine. Right now he is in Ukraine, visiting front line and cooperating with drone makers.
In another video, that was not translated, he shares his impressions of how advanced Ukraine use of drone is and it is still progressing with unprecedented speed. All without any official contracts, just self-organisation and cooperation. Lots of breakthroughs. Unique experience for the whole world. Some areas of the front line are totally impenetrable by the russians because of the use of drones. With casualties on Ukrainian side 1 to 20 in comparison with russians.
The Ukrainians have been incredibly innovative. The Russians have not been diligent. They squandered all their advantages. I pray that Russia’s diplomacy fails.
JRN this morning on John Moore podcast. Had a privilege to partake myself.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/dir-dp35i-23e46535
Now Today, Wednesday, February 19, 2025, President Trump calls Zelensky a “dictator without elections”. Again, what in the world is our President doing with this kind of rhetoric against a country who was invaded by Putin’s Communist regime?
Zelenskyy is President of Ukraine legally, according to the Ukrainian Constitution under circumstances of invasion. Trump cannot force elections on Ukraine unless the Ukrainians allow themselves to be intimidated by Trump’s obnoxious threats.
Trump was cringe when he kept saying “let’s go putin” cause president zelensky congratulated president biden and vice president harris on winning the 2020 election
So far, his words are truly shocking. I fear what comes next if he means everything he says and backs those words up with actions.
If a clown says something, you cannot take them seriously. It is comedy.
Trump is really going off the rails with his attacks on Ukraine. I am constantly shocked by the low level of understanding of history. It’s like the last book they read was in high school. Plus they have a really hard time stepping back and analyzing these problems from a big strategic perspective or philosophically.
Yes, Daniel. Trump now reveals his own blindness.
Demoralizing the Ukrainian people.
I think that’s a very important point! Our own politicians, media personalities and egomaniacs such as a E. Musk have no clue about what the Ukrainian people have endured with this invasion by the Russian invaders!!!! Out of touch.
Morons like a T. Carlson, D. Macgregor go on Faux News or other conservative media outlets and crow pro Russia narratives and yet the Ukrainian people are resilient. Mom’s helping build drones….ordinary folks hunkering down during Russian attacks and then reappearing to salvage what is left…
My own son has a close friend in high school that still has family there in Ukraine and they’re still surviving the onslaught.
Guys like Trump, Vance, Hegseth, Rubio? No skin in the game…No care whatsoever.
The Ukrainian people DO NOT WANT TO GO BACK TO COMMUNIST RULE!!!!
Exactly.
Yes. But they have skin….
I’m sure someone can tell me why sanctions against Russia now would have a serious chance of aiding in regime change in Russia compared to its long history of enduring millions of deaths and economic hardship.
Because Stalin only survived 1942 because of massive Lend Lease aid. Stalin collapsed his own economy. This can happen again. As long as Trump does not rescue Russia…. But I see him doing this.
But surely the sanctions would have to severe and universal right? How is that possible with all the nations that would not sanction including China and the rest of BRICS? Isn’t Russia’s economy more dynamic and resilient than during WW2?
The Russian economy is eating itself alive by the incompetence of the state’s management. You cannot move an economy to war-time production by the methods and practices Moscow is using. Top-down arbitrary, out-of-touch decisions are shrinking an economy that is completely misrepresented in its numbers. China is the same, in many respects.
Thanks I think I get it.
Before comments close I want to add, why I think Trump and Mask are dismissive towards Zelensky. Of course my reasons are not exhaustive, there might be others, that I can’t even imagine.
They do know a lot about him. He is surrounded by Russian agents, one of which is Yermak, who is a puppeteer for Zelensky and his closest associate. In the past Yermak for several years was assistant to a deputy from the Party of the Regions, that was pro-Russian and half criminal organization. At one time he was collecting money from small businesses for their protection from harassment. His manners have not improved since. Yet Zelenskiy is pushing Yermak to represent Ukraine in some international communications. But Americans just refuse to talk to him.
There is a ton of rumors that Yermak is facilitating transfer of some of international aid money to some personal accounts, it is a common knowledge in Ukraine. But I can’t give you any documents to prove that.
Also Zelenskiy was openly supporting Democratic party during the elections. To a point that Mike Johnson even requested him to fire Ukrainian ambassador to US, Oksana Markarova, who was also openly and unprofessionally supporting Democratic party. But Zelenskiy had ignored this request.
Going back in time, Zelenskiy refused to help Trump in the 2020 elections, not giving him information about criminal activity of Bidens in Ukraine. Maybe it was a right thing to do, but Trump can easily hold a grudge and blame him for losing that election.
Zelenskiy in his childish manner had also been very rude to Mask, who helped Ukraine a lot with his Starlink, and received some negative comments in response.
So this dismissiveness is partly a result of a long standing irritation with Zelenskiy for the two of the most influential men in the world today. And of course it is Russia’s request. Unfortunately position of Ukraine suffers from this.
These accusations against Yermak have no basis in fact that can find. Naturally, Zelenskyy would prefer support from America and certainly attempted to win Biden’s favor; but as Zelenskyy has said, Biden’s administration lied about the amount of support given to Ukraine. We heard Biden’s administration accused by Zelenskyy. How does this square with these accusations against Zelenskyy? Nothing here makes sense. We cannot square it with known facts. Let us keep our comments close to known and outstanding facts — facts that this toxic anti-Ukrainian narrative cannot account for.
Since when truth became toxic narrative? Or anti-Ukrainian? Zelensky started speaking against Biden only after he realised that Trump wins. As for Yermak I guess you have to live in Ukraine, to understand how people behave and what it means. Or to learn their long history. Corruption still exists in Ukraine. There are people, who would never leave front line and those who buy their freedom from military service. Bribes go to the top.
Reality is always far more complex than we would like to admit or even can grasp.
All I was doing is trying to help to understand, why it was easy for Russians to pull Trump to believe their narrative. Because he knows too many facts about Zelensky. You can’t leave Soviet Union and suddenly become a country where everybody is nice and moral. Negative tendencies in human behavior still persist and take a long time to overcome. I still have my ghosts to fight against.
Interpreting reality and discovering truth is a very difficult proposition. Nothing is as easy or as straightforward as 2 + 2 = 4. Corruption in Ukraine is itself a very difficult wilderness of mirrors. Unless you personally know the details and persons, it is usually foolish to render definitive judgments.
There was a video circulating a while ago with Yermaks brother, who was using his relationship with his brother to sell positions in the government. A conversation with him cost abt $10,000. It was filmed with secret camera. I watched it.
Recently the guy who made video public, was sent to front line and was kept at the very front until he died. This is a normal practice with people, who speak up against people at the top. Does the fact that I watched that video with selling positions make me a witness of a crime or not?
Or should I begin to question my reality?
You, or somebody else mentioned recently in a conversation, that when you deal with Russia, anything crazy and unbelievable is true. Partly this is also true about Ukraine. We are still one foot there. What I see as normal everyday reality is crazy and unbelievable to you.
There is certainly corruption in Ukraine. But you were charging treason. All governments are corrupt. Not all are run by traitors. We have to be sure of our facts or the proper interpretation of facts?
CBS article about Mike Johnson asking to fire Ukrainian ambassador to US before presidential elections.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/johnson-trump-zelenskyy-ukraine-ambassador-pennsylvania-visit/
What is this supposed to prove?
It is only one case (of many) of Ukraine actively supporting Dem-party right before the elections. This angered Republicans a lot. I am not mentioning a ton of criticism and ridicule of Trump in Soros sponsored media agents in Ukraine over the years. All of it is to give you other reasons (besides Russian influence) of why Trump dislikes Zelenskiy on a personal level being as uninformed as he is. So that your picture would be more complete.
The Democrats have always supported Russia until recently, then they flipped. Everyone is fooled by this. It is no crime that Zelenskyy was also fooled.
How do you know what Trump knows about Zelensky? You assume he knows “ too many facts” presumably about corruption under Zelensky’s leadership, and that’s the reason why he trashes the Ukrainian president. But if US intel services can know so much about the former Soviet Bloc, they should have a much better handle on Russia. From the way he talks it’s clear Trump doesn’t know much about Zelensky or Ukraine. Trump himself is surrounded by a lot of questionable people who carry water for Russia and China.
Actually, Laura, I doubt that Trump knows too many facts, considering that he thinks that USA gave to Ukraine $350 billion. But even from his direct interactions with Zelensky, reports of which are in the open sources, I think he would have enough material to dislike him. And questionable people can blow that flame out of proportion as well. Unfortunately Ukraine suffers as a result.
If Zelenskyy is a traitor to Ukraine, or surrounded entirely by traitors, why has Ukraine done so well in the war? It does not make sense after three years. Right?
For me it makes perfect sense. For one, the traitors can’t be open traitors, who sabotage openly, or take all the money to themselves, that would make it all too obvious and kill their endeavors. Second, I have mentioned this many times in these discussion threads in different words, that Ukraine achieved biggest successes in the war when the government was least involved. If Zelensky was responsible for defending Ukraine as a first response, we would fail. People were preparing and some generals were doing preparations in secret from Zelenskiy. Because they knew about the moles in his surrounding. Zelensky ordered some military units to withdraw from the south and from Hostomel airport both of which were known as places where Russia was going to attack. He was openly accusing Westerners for warnings about the war. He said that the West is worse than Russian propaganda in spreading false narratives about the war, which his moles told him is not going to happen. But after Ukraine did well (despite Zelenskiy) of course he wouldn’t step down, but used the situation to look like the greatest military leader. I think there is material enough to charge Zelenskiy and Yermak with treason three times over. Ukraine is a complicated country with some amazingly moral and bright and brave people and traitors coexisting. You always fight not just the external enemy, but the internal ones as well.
These are interpretations. It is very difficult to prove anyone is a mole. You do not have positive knowledge, but only opinion. Such opinions may or may not be true.
But it’s OK. I understand. Ukrainian internal affairs is not your battle field. You are warning the West about dangers of Russia and China and for your purposes Ukraine has to be a good country without any complexities. But since I am in Ukrainian informational space for much longer stretches of time daily, I thought you might have benefited from a more clear picture of what is going on here. Road to hell is paved with good intentions)))
I never say Ukraine is without corruption. I am not denying the possibility that you know a deeper truth. However, what you say does not explain the events that have unfolded, so I have questioned you. I have Ukrainian friends. I have read books on Ukrainian politics. I do not question out of complete ignorance. None of the experts on Ukraine I know say anything like you say. So you must forgive my skepticism of your unusual claims, which seem anti-Ukrainian. Ukraine’s defense against Russia must be supported and everything should be done to defeat Russia — everything that does not trigger a larger war that we cannot win.
Withdrawing troops from places, where Russians were going to attack (the information about these places was in the open media ahead of war as well) is not an opinion or interpretation. It is an action, which speaks louder than words. No matter how many facts I provide, they will be just separate pieces of information, that you can doubt all you like. But only when you are in it for a long time, you see how small pieces form a bigger picture. And I can’t transfer this picture into anyones head. But as I said, it does not serve your purposes, so just keep on ignoring it.
If I were ignoring your information I would not be questioning it. You don’t seem to understand that you have not presented real evidence to us, but interpretations. For example, you say that pulling back troops proves Zelenskyy’s treason; but it is often necessary for troops to retreat and escape from devastating attacks that would otherwise destroy them. Without detailed, accurate, reliable information, I cannot properly evaluate these kind of interpretations. Please link us to actual proof, not interpretations. Correct interpretation requires a lot of knowledge and great sophistication, as well as years of work. Who are the authorities you rely on for these interpretations? Or can we be assured that you are a political scientist with analytical ability? Are you merely passing along Russian disinformation, deceived as many are? These are serious questions. If Zelenskyy had wanted Ukraine to fall he could have abandoned the country at the outset of the war, seriously damaging the country’s chances of survival at a moment when most people expected Kyiv would fall. The idea that he and his advisors were Russian agents is, on its face, very difficult to believe. A million people have died in Ukraine’s resistance. Russia suffered a great loss. Corrupt traitors inflicted these defeats on Russia? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
My sources are honest and patriotic people, who proved their integrity by actions. I cannot provide you with evidence of news in the open sources and hundreds of hours of interviews and commentaries of these trustworthy people in Russian or Ukrainian language. Living through big changes in my country, the breakup of Soviet Union and two revolutions, I’ve learned to recognize Russian propaganda. Otherwise I would not end up following your blog. How can I turn things I know into evidence? For example. Some months ago I wrote in the comments area in this blog about my friend, who was making drones for the army and had interview with government officials who asked him to show on paper the price twice than what they would pay him, so that they would pocket the rest of the money. My friend is an actively practicing Christian. I know him for 25 years. I am an actively practicing Christian. He never lied to me before. Why would he lie to me now? Why would I lie to you? I was accused of lying and spreading Russian propaganda on that discussion thread. But I know that neither my friend no I were lying. There are thousands of stories like that. Do I have to give you the recording of the conversation? A letter from each participant with signatures confirming that this is true? And if I did, you would say it was just one incident. The signatures were forged or whatever. But the more I live the more I understand that people will believe only what they choose to believe.
It is very interesting what you say. We need to explore it further. How to make sense of it and explore all the facts?
https://x.com/Western_Allies/status/1892120251472474468
Rubio advocates for a Multipolar World Order.
Rubio has completely flipped on Russia. Three years ago when the war started he was saying Putin can’t be trusted. Rubio like many others in positions of high power is a careerist. He will not stick his neck out and jeopardize his political ambitions to tell Trump that he’s wrong about Russia.
https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1891943072172270067
Multipolarity, a term coined by Dugin that has been used for decades in Russia is now becoming part of US foreign policy terminology. Trevor Loudon linked a good expose on X today of how Duginism has infiltrated the American right.
Video of Tulsi repeating the exact same talking points about Zelensky as President Trump today. Maybe that’s where Trump got his ideas from.
https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1892201135517110768
Obviously, we have been swindled.
I now consider Trump to be a traitor and a stooge of Russia. His statements calling Zelenskyy a dictator strike me as a classic Elon move: can’t get your way with someone? Delegitimize them and attempt to force them out to get someone who will capitulate, just as Elon pushed out the real founders of Tesla through defamation and underhanded methods. The “4%” approval rating staatement about Zelenskyy is straight from Russkie propaganda. He also multiplies the amount of aid given to Ukraine in each statement. It’s at 300 billion now, I think, and will probably be 500 billion in a day or two.
Could you expand your commentary on the USAID topic?
I have been listenting to Mike Benz talking about US actions and the use of censorship and disinformation structure to take down what they call populist regimes, patriotic leaderships not aligned to globalist agendas. Do you know further information about this person? When i see people denouncing globalist and communist actions from the west, they usually speak nothing of the russians and chinese.
By taking down that program without creating other, will it affect US global influence? The problem was that instead of leaning towards national strategic interests it was being used to fund the globalist oligarchy initiatives, why the right didn’t just put that program to work on the correct way?
A lot of anti-American causes got funded through that group.
Do you think Mike Pompeo would be a better optiont for the conservatives? What are his chances on US politics for the next years?
We have a new administration. Pompeo is not in it and will probably not be asked in.
Mike Pompeo and John Bolton are realists with respect to Russian and Chinese threats, traditional conservatives in the Reagan era mold. Trump was betrayed by politicians who were part of the traditional conservative movement, such as Mike Pence, Bill Barr, and Jeff Sessions. Combined with the evidence of fraud in the 2020 election, the impeachment trials, the “Reichstag fire” of January 6, 2021, and the attempts to imprison and financially ruin him, Trump became convinced that traditional conservatives were part of the problem and coordinating with the Left. What could be broadly called the Alt-Right embraced him, people like Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, and Alex Jones.
What happened to the Republican opposition? Trump supporters increasingly dominate the GOP, with the niece of Mitt Romney replaced by Lara Trump on the national Republican Party level. Eight of the 10 House Republicans who voted for an impeachment trial were either defeated in the primaries or chose not to run for reelection. A Republican office holder opposing Trump has a political death wish. Ask Liz Cheney or Peter Meijer.
As upper income suburbanites, “country clubbers”, especially women, who were formerly moderate Republicans, increasingly vote Democrat, blue collar and rural whites, especially men, have replaced the suburban moderates. Several decades of mass media and educational culture denigrating manhood and white people have caused alienation. The loss of manufacturing and mining jobs shook loose the economic hold the Democrats once had in the Rust Belt and Appalachia. Obama’s remarks about Midwesterners clinging to their guns and Bibles were denigrating but they reflected a reality about rural and blue collar alienation. There are several hundred rural counties throughout the country where the Democrats receive less than 30% or even less than 10% of the vote. In my own state of Texas, the Democratic Party is effectively dead west of Interstate 35.
President Trump has been radicalized and seeks to punish those who persecuted him. I cannot blame him for wanting justice. Additionally, the evidence that USAID money was going to support LBGTQ programs overseas angers the Trump base. Then other wasteful items like supporting the Egyptian tourism industry strongly suggests kickbacks to politicians and their families. All this lends support to the Alt-Right narrative. Because the same people who are screaming about the Trump/DOGE cutbacks and firings were also supporters of Ukraine, the cause for Ukrainian freedom suffers from this association. President Zelensky has made poor judgements about American politics, coming to an armaments factory with the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania. He should also not said Trump was living in Russian disinformation.
I am afraid that the Alt-Right is swallowing Russian propaganda entirely. Yesterday, Alex Jones interviewed Alexander Dugin, who spent a half hour spouting traditionalist rhetoric and pining all blame on the Globalists. A few weeks back, Tucker Carlson interviewed Dugin, where he pitched the same anti-Globalist and pro-tradition rhetoric. What Trump is doing domestically is great so far. But I am afraid he may be unrealistic about thinking that Russia can be pulled away from the neo-Communist alliance.
Here is a summary of responses to poll questions about Russia and Ukraine posed to Trump voters. There would be a lot more support for sending aid to Ukraine if the $300 billion of frozen Russian assets was used to pay for it instead of taxpayer funds. The case for supporting Ukraine could be made if Trump and Republicans wanted to make it. But so far Trump doesn’t, and Republicans follow his lead.
https://stevenmoore.substack.com/p/how-to-talk-to-republicans?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1902376&post_id=157498945&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=3g35ip&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
How to Talk to Republicans
Saying Donald Trump is a Russian agent is not effective messaging to bring Republicans on board. Talking about Russia, China, Iran and North Korea working together is.
The real question is HOW exactly do we prevent said sound messaging from being drowned out by the myriad pro-Kremlin/CCP (they’re basically the same thing, contrary to the hopes of many) shills and repeaters? Especially knowing that this stuff is pumped out on an industrial scale?
Yes. On an industrial scale.
I am just baffled by everything Trump is doing. I really am. Even the DOGE thing. I don’t think we know just what all is happening there. I’m all for slashing government waste and size, and I know that much money was going to the wrong things.
But, for every discovery of ridiculous money outflow they make public, I wonder how many things that were proper and legitimate aid to allies are being cut?
Also, while corruption is supposedly being rooted out, what is the character of the causes or people who fill the vacuum?
Is it wise to let a bunch if 19-24 year Olds who I’m sure probably have no understanding or good judgment to have unfettered access to all of this information and the people in these organizations? What kind of guys are these? Probably gamers or hackers. Probably the kind that haven’t entered true manhood, but are stuck in perpetual boyhood.
And this raises another question that I think shows Trump can’t be following any brilliant, sophisticated strategy against our enemies. For, if he really believed Russia and China to be an imminent threat to us, would he cause so much chaos in our government and among our allies at this time?
I am all for slashing waste and shrinking government, but the way in which it is being done seems very chaotic.
I was strongly expecting civil war to break out after the election. I work the polls where I live, and we vote at an old church, in which many of my ancestors are buried. Some of the graves are those of Confederate veterans, with small Confederate flags kept stuck in the ground by them. It was my duty to take all the voting stuff to the courthouse after we were done closing up and sealing everything that night. Before I left, I and another guy stood in silence for a moment beside the cemetery. We each thought there would be massive cheating again, and the country would enter civil war to prevent Harris from going in and finishing the nation off. My gaze fixed on one of the Confederate veterans’ graves, and I told my fellow pollworker and lifelong neighbor that we wouldn’t be the first to go through such times, that those guys went through it before we did.
I was so glad when I woke up the next morning, and saw that Harris had been soundly beaten.
But now…I find myself almost wishing things had gone the way my neighbor and I and so many others, were mentally preparing for.
Because if Trump keeps going like he’s going on the international and domestic level, he might make things even worse for us in the long run (which really isnt very long anyway). He is adding so much confusion among Conservatives, greatly aiding the Russian propaganda, and hardening people’s erroneous positions.
Trump is playing a role in leading good people down the wrong path. To betray natural allies and acknowledge and speak well of lying murderers is a grave mistake.
Isa 5:20 Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
This fact will never be annulled.
Mr. Concerned may have been right about Trump all along. But, whether or not Trump is a willing agent of the Communists or not, or just the most useful of all useful idiots, doesn’t really matter. The results may prove to be the same either way.
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1892218907278131241?t=iBR4BvlSlzHNQOfryQKMXQ&s=19
Tulsi knows better than this. The things being said by this administration are all very strange.
Most people in Ukraine agree, that we can’t have elections right now. Our war is different from what what Tulsi Gabbard calls American war. But Zelenskiy did start going after Poroshenko, arresting his assets. And general opinion is that he is doing it in preparation for election, putting aside his rival ahead of time.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/13/europe/ukraine-poroshenko-sanctions-latam-intl/index.html
Gabbard is just a conduit for Russian rhetoric I’m afraid. It seems like everything the people in Trump’s administration say is geared to paint Ukraine in a bad light to Americans.
The way she extrapolated the nonsense about refusing to hold elections -which anyone with good sense knows is impossible for the foreseeable future- to saying “they” are subconsciously preparing us for our elections to be canceled is pure BS to make Americans who are fed up with the state of our government to despise Ukraine.
She’s pathetic. A life wasted. She needs to start over
https://x.com/Marston1889/status/1892220815707435517?t=OF6fBf0KOubPke4omqYHKA&s=19
Of interest:
https://stevenmoore.substack.com/p/trump-is-the-only-game-in-town