“Extrapolating false fears, contemporary anti-Communism, to a larger degree, probably … gives birth to a chimera, specters, and simulacra. Communism is no longer present (as fascism has long ceased to be) – in its place there remains a plaster-cast imitation, a harmless Che Guevara, advertising mobile telephones or adorning the shirts of idle and comfortable petty-bourgeois youth. In the epoch of modernity, Che Guevara was the enemy of capitalism; in the epoch of post modernity, he advertises mobile connections on gigantic billboards. This is the style in which communism can return – in the form of a simulacra. The meaning of this commercial gesture consists in the postmodern laughing off of the pretensions of Communism to be an alternative logos, within the framework of modernity.”
Alexander Dugin[i]
Suggesting that communism is no longer a threat, Russian “philosopher” Alexander Dugin avoids any discussion of the communist structures of China, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, sub-Saharan Africa, etc. He also ignores the communist infiltration of the United States (which continues to the present day). Meanwhile, Red Chinese colonels once wrote about “unrestricted warfare,” telling Western readers that “professional armies are like gigantic dinosaurs which lack strength commensurate to their size in this new age.” Yet China has been building the biggest dinosaur of all.
The propaganda in recent years has been especially strong, from all sides, against U.S. nuclear rearmament. In her interview with Joe Rogan and others on nuclear war, Annie Jacobsen described our Cold War deterrent against Soviet nuclear attack as “a self-licking ice cream cone.” In other words: build the weapons, create the fear of their use, which generates the need for more weapons. The idea is that this kind of defense is irrational. But nothing could be further from the truth. This kind of defense is essential. Without it, we cannot survive against Russia and China. This characterization of America’s once great nuclear deterrent as “self-licking,” serves the Russian and Chinese interest. Is Jacobsen stupid? In terms of strategic thinking, I fear that many smart people share in this stupidity.
Russia and China are building nuclear weapons like crazy. How does it make sense to suggest (however indirectly) that the revitalization of our deterrent as a “self-licking ice cream cone”? Again, we must ask, who does this depiction serve? Such talk sounds plausible to many casual listeners. Yet the substance of this talk is grist for the national suicide mill. Peace-mongering is popular now, and people desperately want to believe in peace; but it’s never good to lose touch with reality. History is punctuated by wars and this is reality. Our beliefs ought to mirror reality, right? Always, in these narratives, we smell the enemy’s propaganda which is calculated to disarm us. Everything here is pleasant poison for maladapted dreamers. In Nietzsche’s prologue of the last man: “A little poison now and then; that makes for pleasant dreams. And much poison at the last for a pleasant death.”[ii]
We must remember, also, that nations are born and die in blood. In this matter, Nietzsche was a thinker who saw ahead. In the 1880s he foresaw the world wars. He foresaw massive dictatorships and ideological warfare. He foresaw that our civilization would collapse in the twenty-first century. I am worried that he saw correctly, through the insight of looming madness. He also wrote, “Of all that is written, I love only what a person has written with his blood. Write with blood, and you will find that blood is spirit.” Looking around at his nineteenth century milieu, Nietzsche turned his poison pen against “the reading idlers.” When you know what these modern readers are like, he said, a writer can do nothing. “Another century of readers,” he added, “and spirit itself will stink.” Everyone learning to read will ruin writing and thinking. Sadly, this has already happened to us. [iii]
To watch this painful process of intellectual degeneracy – the descent into madness by way of trivia, through the manifold byways of distraction, through the mental self-abuse of “woke culture” or conspiracy theory – is to feel the shock of a psychological disease which perpetuates itself through distractions of every stripe. Civilization has been losing touch with reality more and more. Can we reverse this process? Nietzsche thought we had to pass through this rising collective insanity to something on the other side of it. What might this “other side” look like? We watch the present political process for hopeful signs. Some think that President Trump’s political realism will break the spell of degeneracy. Yet others think Trump is another iteration of the degeneracy. Of course, a real correction will not come through politics. As many have said, politics is downstream from culture. The late Olavo de Carvalho, the Brazilian philosopher, said that real change will only come after the culture is regenerated.
Are we seeing more truth today, or is it “New Lies for Old?” Watch what flits by the screen and try to find the truth – that global warming is causing the earth to cool down; that Germany is under sabotage attack from Russia (but who cares?); that Russia and China are preparing for war against the West; that $100 billion of U.S. aid to Ukraine has gone missing (according to President Zelenskyy; that Putin has authorized nuclear attacks on NATO from Belarus; that Russia preparing to invade NATO territory at the Suwalki Gap; that the Japanese are huddling with American officials to counter China in the Pacific. All the useful idiots are chattering; Russia’s economy is on the ropes, China’s economy is teetering, Trump is pushing an agenda nobody fully understands – with zigs and zags.
Of course, the truth will win after each lie has had its day. Former Secretary of State John Kerry used to say, “Daniel Ortega is a misunderstood democrat, not a Marxist.” And now, thankfully, people are realizing that John Kerry is a misunderstood Marxist, not a democrat. We can only hope that American conservatives will see that Alexander Dugin is a servant of Putin and Xi’s “socialist camp,” and not a traditionalist.
What we see unfolding is a long-range plan, once described by defectors like KGB Major Anatoliy Golitsyn and Jan Sejna. After many stumbles, setbacks, and much kleptocratic bungling, the old socialist bloc plods forward, relentless and incompetent, while the West remains sleepy. Few pundits are willing to say that Russia and China are coming after us. Why? Because, quite simply, anyone who tries is punished, ostracized, blacklisted. The left has its people everywhere. Big business is partly in China’s pocket. The right listens to Tucker Carlson and Steven Bannon. Always vigilant to purge the perceptive anticommunist, this milieu is not open to reality. “One of the basic problems of the West,” wrote Jan Sejna in 1982, “is its frequent failure to recognize the existence of any Soviet ‘grand design’ at all.”[iv] Within the CIA, KGB defector Golitsyn’s testimony about a “grand design” was mocked as “a monster plot.”
Yet here we are, the monster plot having unfolded somewhat as Golitsyn foresaw. Much that was in Sejna’s book has also come to pass: The breakup of the Warsaw Pact as a gambit to destroy or weaken NATO, the infiltration of the West, the “the advent to power in Washington of a transitional liberal and progressive government….”[v] This government came to power under Clinton, then Obama, and then Biden. But the corrupt instrument of subversion was not as keen to follow through on its commitments; that is, to commit political suicide in the wake of Moscow’s liberalization. And the U.S. economy, despite being battered by every kind of bad policy, did not collapse as the communist plan envisioned. Such a collapse, in the communist lexicon, would have been the signal for a seizure of power and the dictatorship of the proletariat. But the occasion came and went, interrupted by the presidency of Donald Trump – twice over.
Yet the danger that these plans will be fulfilled by way of military outbreaks, economic sabotage, an all-out assault on the dollar, remains. It turns out, quite obviously, that Sun Tzu was not the genius he was reputed to have been. Carl von Clausewitz warned against the idea of winning without fighting. In Beijing and Moscow this has been a painful discovery. There can be no final victory without a major war, without a “war of continents.” Clearly, there has been a return to Lenin’s belief that Clausewitz was a true sage. For three years Moscow has been at war in Europe while Beijing prepares for a war in the Pacific. And the Chinese military buildup is accelerating.[vi]
To understand the grand strategic process underway, one must turn to the work of Alexander Dugin. In his book, Last War of the World Island, we find a “geopolitical” rationale for the Russian Federation to follow a Soviet-type policy of subversion and conquest against the West. Since overt Marxism-Leninism is no longer stylish, Dugin’s Eurasianism has served as a stand-in. Here we find a mishmash of National Bolshevism, traditionalism, perennialism, and more. What everyone seems to miss, in all this, is the Bolshevik shapeshifting that lies at the bottom of it. Everything in Dugin’s Eurasianism is operationally consistent with the old communist goals.
It is interesting that Dugin refers, on page two of his book, to “different historical stages” – an expression one might expect in a Marxist knock-off. Though Dugin offers the following helpful criticism:
“…the question of the attitude of Russian society toward political forms and types of government remains open. If in the Marxist period we were guided by the theory of progress and the shifts of political-economic blocs, and considered the experience of the Western European countries as ‘universal,’ then today this reductionist schema is no longer suitable.”[vii]
The Marxist-Leninist’s foresaw this themselves in the 1980s. Gorbachev was the personification of this insight. Overt Marxism had to be shelved, for strategic reasons. A broader approach to winning hearts and minds, globally, was needed if Moscow and Beijing were to become “masters of the earth.” One must therefore devise mutations of Orthodoxy, Catholicism, Protestantism, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism – mutations that could be grafted onto a chameleon-like national socialism. If Russia was to win over the religious and nationalist right, old-fashioned Marxism had to be placed in a back room. Even so, the failure of socialism was something Lenin himself had dealt with in the 1920s. The West, having its own kind of socialism, Moscow and Beijing merely had to neutralize the anti-socialist right, squeezing out the constitutionalist and capitalist middle ground. It was a maneuver. Change the packaging, remove the old label, merge the right into a disguised form of Marxism.
We should not be misled by Dugin’s anti-Marxist pose. Nowhere does he object to Marxism on moral grounds, or on the grounds that it damaged Russia or the Russian people. Cynically, he writes, “We must build a new model of Russian sociopolitical history, study the logic of that history, and propose structural generalities that reflect the peculiarities characteristic of our society’s relations at different historical stages, to other governmental and political systems.” Of course, talk of society’s “relations” and “different historical stages” is grist for the Marxist mill. Here we find Marx’s historicism pragmatically wedded to a plan of seduction aimed at conservatives. A device is therefore engendered – a political stopgap – needed for a future strategy of East/West convergence in Europe. “And in this case,” noted Dugin, “alas, we have but few relevant works, since Marxist theories yield notorious caricatures, based on exaggerations and violence against historical facts and especially against their significance.”[viii]
This is good self-criticism, in the Marxist sense. Victory over the West remains the goal. Anything in Marxism that hurts the cause must be amended. There is no Marxist dogma, according to Marx himself. Lenin knew this, and wrote about it. What has happened in the last thirty years is logical; that is, to build a better Leninism, without Lenin’s label. (But then, they kept Lenin’s statues up in Russia.) It was always a mistake to assault capitalism directly, especially when that entailed assaulting theologies and folkways. It is always better to take an enemy in the flank. That is Dugin’s mission, in terms of his assault on conservative values through a pretense of traditionalism.
Think of it this way: Once upon a time Marxism-Leninism attempted an assault the West’s values directly and suffered setbacks. Better, then, to adopt some of those values oneself – as one puts on a costume. Stalin did it many times over. Why not do more than Stalin did in this regard? It is in this context that Dugin writes of a “full-fledged Russian geopolitics.”[ix]
Why geopolitics? Because, hitherto, the Anglo-Saxons understood how to employ geopolitics to their advantage, dominating the seas and world trade. The theory of how the world works, and how it ought to work, was something the British and Americans had considered. Using the same template, the Russians might construct their own theory, taking as their point of departure the standpoint of the dominant land power on the World Island (i.e., Eurasia/Africa). This adjustment of perspective, Dugin admits, is subjective, but “we should understand ourselves not as a neutral observer, but as an observer embedded in a historical and spatial context.” This “procedure” he calls “geopolitical apperception.” He goes on to describe this “subjectivism” in rather grandiose terms – as “the ability to perceive the totality of geopolitical factors consciously….”
This formulation is strange, and it is suspect. Dugin is misleading his readers, misdirecting them in a subtle way, promising greater insights. By looking in the Index of Dugin’s book for references to China, which is a major nation also located on “the World Island,” we come to the heart of his deceptive formulation; for Marxism, like Dugin’s geopolitics, treat of phenomena “holistically.” Yet Dugin slides past China, as if China were part of the Russian Federation; that is, part of the same military bloc. As we read on it becomes clear that the heartland of the World Island was initially under Stalin during the postwar era. It exemplified “the Spartan” style of socialist society consistent with what Dugin calls “full-fledged tellurocracy.” China’s significance in this schema is deliberately omitted. Yet we have reason to believe an earlier version of his manuscript made mention of China, because the Index says China is mentioned there. Rather than drawing attention to facts that will give the game away, the ideological unity of China and Russia is only hinted at, where Dugin writes of Mackinder and Savitskii, “who considered from different points of view the geopolitical future of the Bolsheviks….”[x] This future is that of both Soviet Russia and Soviet China, manifesting in 1917 and 1949 respectively. Here the battle between the land-based communist Behemoth and the sea-based Leviathan alluded to by Carl Schmitt is passed over even as China itself was edited out of the text. “Functionally,” says Dugin, “Stalin was a ‘Russian Czar,’ comparable to Peter the Great or Ivan the Terrible.” Yet the Index says he should have begun a discussion of China on the previous page, before underscoring Stalin’s alleged “Czarism.” Here the unity of the Bolsheviks is eclipsed intentionally by characterizing the Behemoth of the World Island as “Czarist” under Stalin rather than communist. We do not know what the original passage in Dugin’s book said. We only know that the editors forgot to fix the Index as they erased any mention of China as part of the communist bloc.
More telling, Dugin eventually admits that the Third International “became a geopolitical instrument for the propagation of land-based, tellurocratic Russian influence worldwide. In terms of ideology,” Dugin continued, “this was a territorially unbound, international, planetary network. But in terms of strategy, the Third International fulfilled the function of a geopolitical instrument for the expansion of the Heartland’s geopolitical zone of influence.”[xi]
Here Dugin bolsters the idea that communism itself was a beard behind which Russian imperialism continued to function. This favored theme of the West’s anti-anticommunists has always been useful to Moscow and Beijing. It flatters one of the most deadly misunderstandings of Western analysts; namely, that communist ideas have no strategic meaning or significance. And Dugin underscores this flattery by explaining that the “orthodox messianism of the sixteenth century was reflected wonderfully in the Bolshevist Communist ‘messianism’ of global revolution with its core in Moscow, the capital of the Third International.”[xii]
After many pages China’s existence is finally acknowledged in this “geopolitical” book, though China is immediately dismissed as inconsequential: “China was in an exceedingly weak condition and was to a significant degree controlled by the English.”[xiii] Nowhere does Dugin admit that Stalin initially supported Nationalist China, with Soviet military advisors and more. Stalin clearly saw China’s importance early on. Why does Dugin downplay this? And after the Nationalists kicked the communists out of the Party, the British were not the ones who provided military advisors to China. It was, oddly, the German generals who assisted the Nationalist Chinese after the Soviets departed. Yet Dugin names the British. Then, in discussing the aftermath of World War II, he rambles on about the bipolar duel between Leviathan and Behemoth, forgetting to mention China’s membership in the “telluric empire of the Third International.”
Dugin is cunning in his historical omissions. For him, geopolitics is a struggle between commercial (or thalassocratic) sea powers like Athens, Carthage, Great Britain and the United States, versus tellurocratic land powers like Sparta, Rome, Germany and Russia. Again, we want to know where China fits into this analysis, yet Dugin passes over the question of China. Inevitably, Dugin swerves from a discussion of the Third International’s victory in the Vietnam War to the Sino-Soviet split: “In foreign policy, Khrushchev lost an important ally in Maoist China, whose leadership responded very unfavorably to the dethronement of the cult of Stalin and his political policy in general.”[xiv]
Dugin then admits that Stalin’s policy was continued under Khrushchev; and then, with the advent of Brezhnev (who was even closer to Stalin’s line) he fails to explain why the Sino-Soviet split would have continued. If the denunciation of Stalin by Khrushchev caused the split, then why didn’t Brezhnev’s neo-Stalinism heal the split? Dugin has no insights into this. That Dugin is the creature of Moscow’s strategy rather than an actual strategist, might explain his obfuscations and omissions. His writings are undoubtedly supervised by Russian Federation authorities. His pretense of independence and intellectual integrity, his critical stand toward Marxism, is for the sake of his alt-right and religious followers.
Returning to the book’s Index in search of further references to China, on page 75, he refers to China as more part of the United States’s unipolar structure: “The new [post Cold War] architecture of international relations,” he says, is “built on the sole dominance of the USA….”[xv] Echoing Vladimir Putin, Dugin says that the fall of the Soviet Union was “a catastrophic step backward.” But Russia is going to make a comeback, he explains. He then describes Russia’s struggle to overtake the United States. He writes, “Under various ideologies and political systems, Russia moved toward world dominance [under Putin].” Dugin then predicts a “great war of continents” which begins after Russia stops cooperating with NATO. This cooperation, he says, is “a pathology, a deviation from … [Russia’s] natural, undeniable historical trajectory.” The right trajectory, he says, is one of dominance of the Eurasian land mass and, by extension, the world.[xvi]
“The normalization of Russia’s natural historical vector only occurred with Putin’s coming to power,” notes Dugin, adding that Russia needs a “strong-willed and energetic personality at the head of the government” and “a new type of ruling elite and a new form of ideology.”[xvii] Having advised Russia’s leaders to adopt an aggressive policy, Dugin then attributes aggressive military intentions to NATO when he writes,
“…the forces of Atlanticism will not hesitate to strike a decisive blow against their primary adversary in the great war of continents. All discussions that claim that the West no longer views Russia as a rival and is only concerned with the ‘Islamic threat’ or with the growth of China’s potential are nothing but a diversionary tactic, and weapons in an information war.”[xviii]
Russia is the West’s most dangerous and primary enemy, according to Dugin. The great “war of continents” is inevitable, he explains. The geopolitical school, which sees Eurasia pitted against the maritime powers of the West, is embraced by the Russian generals. Why does Dugin seem to misplace China in this schema? Because, when he wrote this text in 2015, he was in the business of misleading his Western readers. After all, Russia is coming after the West.
According to Dugin, “[The] geopolitical school emerged in Russia, with lecturers from France and other countries pouring into Russia to speak. Dugin says, “In the early 1990s, instruction in geopolitics began at the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Federation (under the instruction of the future Minister of Defense, I. Rodionov, in the Department of Strategy, then led by Lieutenant General H.P. Kolokotov), where its principle ideas were also formed and published somewhat later in the textbook, Foundations of Geopolitics.”[xix]
Geopolitical ideas were first “disseminated in patriotic circles which opposed the regime of Yeltsin and the ‘Young Reformers,’ which gave it a certain political orientation,” adds Dugin.[xx] In other words, geopolitics became a vehicle for the old communists. Here is the real explanation for Russia’s alliance with communist China. Here is the real explanation for North Korean communist troops fighting for Russia, and for Russia sending grain shipments to communist Cuba, positioning troops in communist Venezuela, for building base infrastructure in communist Nicaragua. There is an undeniable pattern here. But who bothers to notice?
Oh no, say the experts of the Ivy League. Communism is dead, It’s all just “geopolitics.” But I must disagree with these experts. They need to go back and read Nietzsche. Let us dispense with explaining the “war of continents” in non-ideological terms. Nietzsche predicted wars of this kind, and he knew they would be ideological. He knew that civilization would be coming unraveled. Nietzsche was right on all three counts, and he could see it clearly in the 1880s. Why should we be blind in this matter? It is happening in front of us. Yet Dugin hides the socialist nature of Russia’s alliance structure, and the socialist nature of Russia’s fifth column in the West. According to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, the Biden administration in America was not supporting Ukraine as advertised. Zelenskyy says that over $100 billion in U.S. aid never reached Ukraine. Biden was supported by the left. He was a friend of the Soviet Union decades ago. Look at the Bukovsky files.
Everything here should be obvious when certain basic questions are asked. Who opened America’s border to invasion? Biden and his leftist Democratic Party. Who refused to build up North America’s defense against Russian missiles? Biden and his leftist Democratic Party. Who refused to modernize our degenerating ICBM deterrent? Biden and his leftist Democratic Party. Who canceled two nuclear weapons? Again, it was Biden. If this so-called “leader” cared about America’s survival, if he was genuinely hostile to Russia, why did he follow these suicidal policies that benefitted Russia? Of course his support for Ukraine was token!
As Dugin has shown, Russia’s leaders have a strategic vision and a fifth column in the West. The true nature of the attacking formation must be hidden, and the old communist bloc (a.k.a., socialist camp) still exists.
Does President Trump understand any of this? I don’t know. Can Trump take advantage of Russia’s present economic weakness? I hope so. Can Trump throw China off balance while successfully battling the enemy’s fifth column inside the American Establishment? Maybe. If war is inevitable, will America be ready for Dugin’s “war of continents”? If only our ice cream cone had been self-licking as Annie Jacobsen claims. In that case we might not be dealing with a war in Europe.
Global Cooling Expert Lee Wheelbarger
I got a call out of the blue from an expert on the grand solar minimum last Friday and we did a podcast on the fly.
This podcast with Nevin was done almost two weeks ago, and I apologize for posting it so late. You can see how my view of things differed back then. Technical troubles with the site kept me from posting.
Links and Notes
[i] Alexander Dugin, The Fourth Political Theory (Kindle Edition), p. 93. This is a very curious quotation which dismisses the way in which Marxist ideas have permeated everywhere in the West, including within the West’s commercial system. This is not serious, he suggests. Nothing to see here. Move along.
[ii] “Alas! There cometh the time when man will no longer give birth to any star. Alas! There cometh the time of the most despicable man, who can no longer despise himself!
“Lo! I show you the last man.
“What is love? What is creation? What is longing? What is a star?” – so asketh the last man and blinketh.
“The earth hath then become small, and on it there hoppeth the last men who maketh everything small. His species is ineradicable like that of the ground-flea; the last man liveth longest.
“We have discovered happiness” – say the last men, and blink thereby.
“They have left the regions where it is hard to live; for they need warmth. One still loveth one’s neighbor; for one needeth warmth.
“Turning ill and being distrustful, they consider sinful: they walk warily. He is a fool who still stumbleth over stones or men!
“A Little poison now and then: that maketh pleasant dreams. And much poison at the last for a pleasant death.”
Friedrich Nietzsche trans. Thomas Commons, Thus Spake Zarathustra, (New York: Modern Library), p. 12.
[iii] Ibid, p. 39. I have altered the translation to modern English.
[iv] Jan Sejna, We Will Bury You (London: Sidgwick and Jackson, 1982), p. 101.
[v] Ibid, pp. 153-54.
[vi] https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-military-expansion/
[vii] Alexander Dugin, Last War of the World Island (United Kingdom: ARKTOS MEDIA LTD., 2015), p. 2.
[viii] Ibid.
[ix] Ibid, pp. 2-3.
[x] Ibid, p. 33.
[xi] Ibid, pp. 34-35.
[xii] Ibid, p. 35.
[xiii] Ibid.
[xiv] Ibid, p. 49
[xv] Ibid, p. 75.
[xvi] Ibid, p. 141.
[xvii] Ibid, p. 143.
[xviii] Ibid, p. 144.
[xix] Dugin was the author of Foundations of Geopolitics, published in 1997.
[xx] Ibid, p. 85.
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141 responses to “Russia’s Secret Partners: The Reds and Geopolitics”
[…] Alexander Dugin[i] […]
In recent English posts by Dugin he praises Trumps dismantling of the liberal left and its crippling effects on society in favor of more conservative and traditional values which Dugin claims are akin to Russia’s. He then goes on to state that all forms of Western thought (including the conservative traditional ones “akin” to Russia- I find his reasoning to be a jumble of contradictions) must be dismantled in favor of Russian thinking and values. The entire West must be done away with. And this is what he is saying to his English speaking audiences. Who knows what he is saying to his native speaking ones? | would say the gloves are off at this point.
In line with politics being downstream of culture, Sarah Paine beautifully explains that the Bolshevik Revolution that entrenched Communism into Russia was not merely the result of a few strong men taking power but rather the product of a critical mass of society that aligned with those values and thinking.
In America today we are seeing a polarization between more traditional values and liberal values. Clearly there was a silent majority that voted in favor of a return to the right, and we are seeing a shift even among Gen Z toward more conservative values. But as you have repeatedly pointed out- there is a significant amount of subversion of thought among the right. I personally know otherwise intelligent and highly educated persons who espouse conservative values and yet cannot be shifted from believing in conspiracy theories and Russia’s moral superiority.
Is our culture heading toward a true rejuvenation or merely a postponement of an inevitable collapse? I suppose only time will tell. I however am hopeful that we are forming a core group of persons who will stand fast in the camp of true liberty and goodness.
Yes! We must start somewhoere. And Dugin is telling his non-English speaking students that Trump is a worse enemy than Biden. These contradictions are telling.
Timely core essay. And what a fascinating and soul-shaking find is this Mr Wheelbarger. Thanks so much, Jeff, for making a record of your conversation and posting it. Makes me wonder if the depopulationists like Gates are working their morbid designs with these things in mind.
It makes you wonder, doesn’t it?
Jeff, not sure if you can comment, if you do a second interview with Lee Wheelbarger, is it possible to discuss with him in regards to Grand Solar Minimum and the increase of Volcanic activity along with seismic activity/earthquakes?
Yes. We should touch on that next time.
Excellent essay, if only more people on the right would read it. But Tucker & co. are too busy celebrating the confirmation of Tulsi Gabbard, along with their fellow MAGA communists and Russian state TV.
Meanwhile Trump reiterates that he’s serious about wanting to take over Canada. The continued threats of tariffs can be viewed in this light. He makes the US-Canada trade deficit more than 3x larger than it is to justify the takeover. It’s disconcerting the way he reduces questions of national sovereignty and defense down to pure economics, as if countries and entities can only exist in economic terms. That’s where the nonsense of turning the Gaza strip into the new French riviera comes from.
Trump Says Talk of Wanting Canada to Be a Part of US Is Serious – Feb 10/25
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-says-talk-of-annexing-canada-is-serious-5807271?utm_source=NA_article_paid&src_src=NA_article_paid&utm_campaign=newsalert-2025-02-10-ca&src_cmp=newsalert-2025-02-10-ca&utm_medium=email&est=Iclka0OM3Ucyd%2ByK0fmbWPFSiNMxHxa7DdtaFsJueeUbU3ehdjRB7vhoFHnW%2Fc6a&utm_term=news1&utm_content=1
He has said that merging the countries, if it happens, would take place through “economic force” rather than military force.
… Trump has vowed to impose additional tariffs on steel and aluminum. Canada is the largest exporter of steel and aluminum to the United States.
The curious thing, Laura, is that Canadians in Toronto last September were telling me that China has already taken over Canada. A former Canadian MP said to me, “Warn America. They need to know. We have been taken over by China from within.” This was shocking to hear, but not surprising given the Sidewinder Report of 1997 warning of this same thing. If this is true, has Trump heard this warning?
This interview with Sam Cooper supports what your Canadian friends are telling you Jeff. Fair warning a few choice words are used.
https://youtu.be/wzZKUKFkWWM?si=LcXqlWWVEJQXTBv9
It is a very curious development, indeed.
Excellent and insightful essay, Jeff. Peace-mongering, I am going to use that.
I listened to your discussion with Lee Wheelbarger and he has failed to sway me from Ben Davidsons camp. I think that Ben has shown plenty of scientific evidence that the sun will micronova and that the poles are indeed moving away and that there will be a sudden flip. I hear a lot of hopism from his version. I think that solar panels are like a fools gold. I do agree that we are going into a mini ice age.
Please give us links to Ben Davidson’s work. I am curious.
There is a wealth of information here. Ben has written books which are used in universities and he is making a movie on the upcoming solar event that will be out later this year.
https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCTiL1q9YbrVam5nP2xzFTWQ
The channel used to be called Suspicious Observers and has recently changed to Space Weather News. I second the recommendation on Ben Davidson. I am not a scientist but what I have studied so far from him and other scientists in the field makes a lot more sense to me than any other theories o have read. Anecdotally, his forecasts often appear to be eerily accurate.
A micro nova event.
Yes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1A6ikRgZBf8
FWIW, I add my endorsement of Ben Davidson’s channel. Jeff, if you check under any video, Ben has a playlist of videos with basic principles for the beginner. Very much worth your time.
[…] von Jeff Nyquist […]
DIRE VLAD THREAT Bombshell spy intel reveals Putin arming for ‘large-scale’ war that will trigger WW3…& it’s not long until he can strike:
It comes as the US slams allies and says Ukraine will never be part of NATO.
Published: 10:57 ET, Feb 12 2025
https://www.the-sun.com/news/13527390/bombshell-spy-intel-reveals-putin-arming-for-war/?utm_campaign=native_share&utm_source=sharebar_native&utm_medium=sharebar_native
A DIRE warning has been issued that Vladimir Putin is looking to start a major war in Europe within five years, according to bombshell spy intel.
Intelligence from Denmark has assessed the Russian despot’s military capacity claiming he could be ready to spark wars with neighbouring regions in months ahead of a full-scale attack on NATO.
___________________________
Laughing Kremlin Insiders Say Trump Has Given Putin Greenlight to Expand the War:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/laughing-kremlin-insiders-say-trump-has-given-putin-greenlight-to-expand-the-war/
Sounds like propaganda to mobilize Trump’s enemies.
Trump’s call with Putin alarms Europe and shocks Ukraine:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-s-call-with-putin-alarms-europe-and-ukraine/ar-AA1yYr7r
President Donald Trump’s phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin has deeply rattled Kyiv and its European partners, intensifying long-held fears that Ukraine could be excluded from peace talks determining its own future and security — as well as that of the rest of the continent.
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Scholz rejects ‘dictated peace’ for Ukraine as Europe reels after Trump-Putin call:
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday said a deal to end the Ukraine war should not be imposed on Kyiv as European leaders warned of security implications on the continent after US President Donald Trump agreed to open negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250213-ukraine-europe-must-be-involved-peace-talks-say-nato-european-members-russia-trump-rutte
It’s just a phone call…. Why all the panic?
Maybe all the panic is because the phone call is seen as a harbinger of things to come. I don’t see how anyone can look at what Trump and his negotiating team have been saying and imagine that he’s really going to turn around and skewer Russia while showering Ukraine with help. Everything he’s said so far is consistent with a soft-on-Russia approach in which only Ukraine will be expected to make major concession in return for vague guarantees. It’s pleasant to ignore all this and imagine that Trump’s playing some clever 4D chess, but when has the 4D chess notion ever panned out?
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-admin-cuts-support-for-investigating-russian-war-crimes-rebuilding-ukraine-infrastructure/
Trump blames Biden for starting the war because he said that Ukraine could join NATO. Once he said that, Russia had no choice but to invade according to Trump. Is this the talk of a leader who will hold Russia’s feet to the fire?
https://x.com/PawlowskiMario/status/1890132980586496314 Feb 13/25
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1889791569273782388
REPORTER: Do you see a future in which Ukraine returns to its pre-2014 borders?
TRUMP: It certainly would seem to be unlikely. They took a lot of land and they fought for that land…
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-should-be-readmitted-into-g7-trump-says/
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-may-russian-someday-trump-warns-zelensky-2029205
Trump again blamed Ukraine for the war saying it was “a bad war to get into”, and he seems to be echoing Russian narratives that Ukraine’s government is illegitimate by insisting that elections must be held soon. He already expects Ukraine to make major territorial concessions (“a lot of Russian soldiers died for that land so Russia should keep it”) but hasn’t given an indication of any meaningful security guarantees on the part of the US. Zelensky is right that any guarantees without the US are not real security guarantees. Trump wants Europe to be entirely responsible for Ukraine’s security, knowing full well that that the European countries are in no position to go up against Russia on their own. Of course Europe needs to grow up and start paying more for its own defense, but even then that won’t be enough to catch up to Russia soon. That’s no reason for the US to withdraw from Europe and hand Russia the initiative, which is what the idea of Europe being entirely responsible for Ukraine suggests. The Budapest Memorandum and the fact that Ukraine already made a major concession in return for guarantees of its sovereignty, is already forgotten. Next time, Kyiv, always next time.
Trump also wants Ukraine to repay “hundreds of billions” of US aid through some kind of deal over Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, but there is very little mention of continued long-term military aid to Ukraine. The big question is what will the US do when Russia breaks the terms of the ceasefire? Will the US even acknowledge Russia’s umpteenth violation of international law? Will Trump finally use US power to crush Russia, or will he let the Kremlin off the hook again? It depends on which is deemed more important, salvaging the image of the “peace deal” or securing the defense of Europe.
For what it’s worth, the view in the Baltics and Eastern Europe on Trump’s negotiation with Putin is not very hopeful. We should pay attention to what people closer to the Russian threat are saying. The representatives of the Baltics make a good point that Ukraine’s hand should have been strengthened before going into any negotiations. We just found out that the Biden admin disbursed only a fraction of the inflated $200 billion military aid appropriation, and instead of giving Ukraine the rest of it there’s instead a rush to negotiate with Russia.
https://kyivindependent.com/a-push-for-ukraines-capitulation-baltic-eastern-europe-react-to-trumps-rush-to-negotiate-peace-with-putin/
This article provides a good summary of the key issues that will be part of any Ukraine-Russia negotiations.
https://kyivindependent.com/which-clauses-of-potential-peace-deal-would-be-acceptable-for-ukraine-and-realistic/
I watched Trump’s press remarks on Ukraine the other day. Trump was very curious talking about “the beautiful boys dying.” He always overdoes that. Why? He doesn’t dare let anyone suspect the war is to America’s advantage. We should have capitalized on those advantages a long time ago. Does Yrumo go to bed at night mourning the “beautiful boys” who are dying? He is the America first guy. He can’t let anyone know he wants the war to last a bit longer. Look at his negotiating history with North Korea and China. He just secured Ukraines resources. He is strong-arming the Germans to rebuild their rotten military. Why? Because he wants to help Putin? It was never thought that Russia would agree to restoring the 2014 borders. Besides. This would not be to America’s advantage. If Russia gave all the territory back sanctions would be Removed on Russia. This would be bad for us. Europe would go back to sleep. They would trade with Russia. Nobody would care about the Russia-China threat. This whole thing is not straightforward
But the US hasn’t secured any of Ukraine’s resources as long as its borders are not secure. And doesn’t keeping Ukraine’s sovereignty in limbo give Russia many more avenues to exploit the situation/crisis in Europe and advance its agenda? Look how the pro-Russia parties are gaining followers by saying that aid to Ukraine is bankrupting Europe. Trump is talking about letting Russia back in the G7, that’s going beyond removing the sanctions. It’s normalizing relations with Russia to pre-2014 levels. You’re saying that if the US makes things too easy for Ukraine and Europe, Europe will go back to sleep and forget about Russia. But if Trump makes things too easy for Russia, the situation could easily tip in the other direction and result in a hot war that Europe’s unprepared for.
Given the security emergency in the Baltic States, we need to make a distinction between empty talk — which is what these stories are about so far — and substance. So what if Ukraine might have different borders after a peace settlement? That doesn’t mean we won’t get Ukraine’s resources. If Trump wants
Ukraine’s sources at least he cannot sell Ukraine down the river. And that is hopeful. My fear is that Trump could lose all of Ukraine. Keeping Ukraine alive is what matters. Strategically, Ukraine needs to remain a barrier to Russia. The exact location of the border of Ukraine matters a great deal to Ukraine, but not to NATO and the USA. What would it require to force Russia out of Ukraine? Is this worth the risk? That’s hard to say. It would require a lot more assistance to Kyiv. If we do that will Russia go after our vulnerable infrastructure here at home? I have been told they might. I think the Russians can do many nasty things clear up to nuclear strikes. Of course, G7 membership for Russia is crazy. Lifting sanctions is crazy. Yet Europe is getting impatient and Ukraine is exhausted. I am not sure there is enough political will in the West to defeat Russia in this war. But we can strangle Russia economically. We can drag out the peace talks and tighten the sanctions. Trump does not look smart enough for that, but who knows?
I’d say it’s worth the risk. Look what has happened/is happening to Ukranians in the conquered territory. Hasn’t your thesis been that Russia and China are coming after us anyway? What’s another year or two, or five, especially when it would take us years and years to rebuild our industrial base, then military, not to even mention the character and mentality of our population…even while many thousands of enemies are still embedded throughout our territory? The fight is going on now. As you said, China is aggressively increasing their buildup. Trump should take strong action, *and* talk straight. After all, Russia and China really are not hiding their intentions. If we can see it, then our leaders have no excuse not to.
It doesn’t look like Trump has any intention in dragging out any “peace” talks anyway. At first, he said the war would be over on Day One. Everything he says indicates he is urgent to “stop” the war.
We can defeat Russia right now by dragging out the war and extending sanctions. All Trump has to do is fumble the negotiations and — oops, we did not get an agreement because Zelenskyy is a nasty little man — “the beautiful boys are dying, such a shame.” We do not need to flood Ukraine with new types of weapons that will supposedly allow them to defeat Russia on the field. We must not remove the sanctions. Europe must not be allowed to trade with Russia. I think Trump instinctively knows this. All these other statements are just empty talk. Watch the economic pressure on Russia. That’s all that matters. If Trump removes that pressure then he is a failed president.
This is not good.
https://x.com/OstapYarysh/status/1889724850224157159
Donald Trump didn’t mention Keith Kellogg among the people who would lead the negotiation process with Russia and Ukraine.
Trump is sending Jack Posobiec as part of his delegation to Ukraine. Posobiec has been no stranger to spreading Kremlin disinformation about Ukraine.
https://x.com/CaolanRob/status/1890211634637045870
Nope, not good at all. Did you see Shawn Hannity’s interview of Trump from a couple weeks ago? Trump was really down on Zelensky, saying he had no business fighting a much bigger country like Russia, and that Zelensky could have prevented the war.
Imagine that. Denigrating a man for leading his nation in fighting an invasion of murdering, raping, thieving criminals.
By the same reasoning, if China invades America, shame on us if we resist such a large and powerful nation.
Found a short that contains that little rant.
https://youtube.com/shorts/F95E-o1GWsY?si=TuGeTDgW5-bhewsx
If you watch the entire interview, Trump’s tone of voice and demeanor really changed when he went into that tirade.
I didn’t see the entire interview, but Trump sounded almost angry at Zelensky in that clip. He also repeats Biden’s inflated claim of $200 billion military aid in order to diminish the heroism of Ukraine’s resistance. Nice.
The thing about Trump is, he says terribly obnoxious things like what he said about Zelenskyy — but does he want to hurt or help Russia? These statements of his could be pure stupidity or they could be calculated to deflect a planned Russian attack into the Suwalki Gap. Behind the scenes there are some strange claims making the rounds. I am of two minds on all this. Words are one thing, deeds are different. Let’s see what he does?
I just can’t see how talking like this can be cover for some clever strategy against Russia. I mean, this kind of talk gets back to the Ukranians, and it’s got to have an effect on their morale. Also, it’s got to have an effect on how other nations look at the war, and I would think it offers an excuse for other Western nations who either don’t really want to support Ukraine, or whose leaders are really in Russia’s pocket -like Biden was- to cut back or decrease whatever aid they may have been sending.
In other words, Trump’s rhetoric not only in itself has got to have a negative effect on Ukrainian morale, but it’s got to hurt them in the eyes of the world. After all, none of the Western nations seem to really have the heart or will to really stand up to Russia. We know that cowards and compromised people always want an excuse to cover their lack of courage born of conviction.
Another even more dangerous thing about Trump’s rhetoric, is that it is very undermining to Zelensky. It is quite likely that it even places the man’s life in mote jeopardy than it already is.
I just don’t see how Trump’s rhetoric can be a cover for some bold, clever strategy against Russia.
The man who should be the leader of America and the West should not be ambiguous in what he says against the evil and for the right, in a situation like this where so many lives are being unjustly killed and destroyed every day.
It would be like Churchill saying detrimental things toward the Jews while speaking to and of Putin as a man on equal standing as himself.
Trump is either very foolish, or it’s something worse.
The Ukrainians fought for five months without U.S. support. Even if Trump is saying these things out of stupidity and lack of formation — which is doubtful — Russia is bearing a great strain. The Ukrainians must cooperate for this to work. Ukraine can balk Trump’s impositions and appeal to Europe. Europe has options here, and more money than the USA. In a way Trump is provoking them all, showing them that war preparations are best given America’s unwillingness to confront Russia by provocatively supporting Ukraine. Europe has to wonder how this plays out if America will not support Ukraine past a certain point. Is Russia destined to take Ukraine completely? Even if Trump’s statements are poorly thought out it is much better than Biden doing nothing to prod Europe to produce more weapons. At the very least Europe is forced to build its military potential. If this is what it takes, Trump’s statements serve a purpose other than allowing the usual defensive rot. As for arms control talks, I do not see how the Russians or Chinese would agree. They are strategically ahead.
Trump is obnoxious and ignorant.
Trump said some odd things.
Yes he did.
Jack is a bad apple, I fear.
I tried to post this earlier, not sure if it went through. Please delete the double-post if necessary.
———–
Maybe all the panic is because the phone call is seen as a harbinger of things to come. I don’t see how anyone can look at what Trump and his negotiating team have been saying and imagine that he’s really going to turn around and skewer Russia in favor of Ukraine. Everything he’s said so far is consistent with a soft-on-Russia approach in which only Ukraine will be expected to make major concession in return for vague guarantees. It’s pleasant to ignore all this and imagine that Trump’s playing some clever 4D chess, but when has the 4D chess notion ever panned out?
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-admin-cuts-support-for-investigating-russian-war-crimes-rebuilding-ukraine-infrastructure/
Trump blames Biden for starting the war because he said that Ukraine could join NATO. Once he said that, Russia had no choice but to invade according to Trump. Is this the talk of a leader who will hold Russia’s feet to the fire?
https://x.com/PawlowskiMario/status/1890132980586496314 Feb 13/25
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1889791569273782388
REPORTER: Do you see a future in which Ukraine returns to its pre-2014 borders?
TRUMP: It certainly would seem to be unlikely. They took a lot of land and they fought for that land…
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-should-be-readmitted-into-g7-trump-says/
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-may-russian-someday-trump-warns-zelensky-2029205
Trump again blamed Ukraine for the war saying it was “a bad war to get into”, and he seems to be echoing Russian narratives that Ukraine’s government is illegitimate by insisting that elections must be held soon. He already expects Ukraine to make major territorial concessions (“a lot of Russian soldiers died for that land so Russia should keep it”) but hasn’t given an indication of any meaningful security guarantees on the part of the US. Zelensky is right that any guarantees without the US are not real security guarantees. Trump wants Europe to be entirely responsible for Ukraine’s security, knowing full well that that the European countries are in no position to go up against Russia on their own. Of course Europe needs to grow up and start paying more for its own defense, but even then that won’t be enough to catch up to Russia soon. That’s no reason for the US to withdraw from Europe and hand Russia the initiative, which is what the idea of Europe being entirely responsible for Ukraine suggests. The Budapest Memorandum and the fact that Ukraine already made a major concession in return for guarantees of its sovereignty, is already forgotten. Next time, Kyiv, always next time.
Trump also wants Ukraine to repay “hundreds of billions” of US aid through some kind of deal over Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, but there is very little mention of continued long-term military aid to Ukraine. The big question is what will the US do when Russia breaks the terms of the ceasefire? Will the US even acknowledge Russia’s umpteenth violation of international law? Will Trump finally use US power to crush Russia, or will he let the Kremlin off the hook again? It depends on which is deemed more important, salvaging the image of the “peace deal” or securing the defense of Europe.
For what it’s worth, the view in the Baltics and Eastern Europe on Trump’s negotiation with Putin is not very hopeful. We should pay attention to what people closer to the Russian threat are saying. The representatives of the Baltics make a good point that Ukraine’s hand should have been strengthened before going into any negotiations. We just found out that the Biden admin disbursed only a fraction of the inflated $200 billion military aid appropriation, and instead of giving Ukraine the rest of it there’s instead a rush to negotiate with Russia.
https://kyivindependent.com/a-push-for-ukraines-capitulation-baltic-eastern-europe-react-to-trumps-rush-to-negotiate-peace-with-putin/
This article provides a good summary of the key issues that will be part of any Ukraine-Russia negotiations.
https://kyivindependent.com/which-clauses-of-potential-peace-deal-would-be-acceptable-for-ukraine-and-realistic/
Trump’s rhetoric on the war is quite stupid. But it’s not anything we have not heard before. Nobody thinks Russia will accept NATO membership for Ukraine or give all the territory back. And Moscow has options, like bringing in Chinese troops or using nukes directly on NATO. Recovering the occupied parts of Ukraine is not as strategically important as crippling Russia’s economy. Here is where we can cause a regime change in Russia. Already there are strikes in Russia, and infrastructure problems. Trump either understands he has an opportunity here or he is going to bungle badly. The real game should be to drag out peace talks while Russia sinks into chaos. Let’s see if Trump is shrewd enough to drag things out. If Russia knows this was the plan they might start using nukes. I know I would (if I were a psychopath like Putin). Does Trump have to fool the Russians into putting away the nuclear option? It really has been Russia’s best play all along in my opinion. The West is easily frightened when nukes are even mentioned. Image of several nukes are fired from Belarus. Would NATO date return fire on Russia? I don’t think so. Russia has the upper hand in nuclear weapons…. Dare they use them?
Last night a russian drone had hit the protective layer of Chernobyl nuclear plant. This is a russian style of using nuclear incidents without even using nuclear weapons. They are raising their stakes higher.
They hit the containment intentionally?
I don’t know if they hit it intentionally. I also wonder (please, don’t think I am crazy) if this was Zelenskiy’s way to raise the stakes. Because his position really needs strengthening in the peace talks. So far he feels ignored.
Zelenskyy should keep fighting, and somehow teach us the truth about the Orcs.
JD Vance snubs Germany’s Scholz at Munich Security Conference:
“We don’t need to see him, he won’t be chancellor long,” a former U.S. official said of Vance’s thinking.
https://www.politico.eu/article/jd-vance-munich-security-conference-scholz-merz-germany/
United States Vice President JD Vance will not meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Munich Security Conference, marking a serious diplomatic rebuke to the leader of the host country at a time of heightened transatlantic tensions over a potential Ukraine peace deal.
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Trump Pushes Fading Zelenskiy Toward Risky Ukraine Election:
Story by Daryna Krasnolutska and Volodymyr Verbianyi • 7h
(Bloomberg) — Volodymyr Zelenskiy knows a thing or two about wearing different guises. As a comedian, humor was his armor. As a wartime leader it was military fatigues. But there was no disguising the sense of betrayal reverberating in Ukraine as the president put on a brave face to let the world know about his latest dispiriting call with Donald Trump.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-13/trump-pushes-a-fading-zelenskiy-toward-a-risky-ukraine-election
We shall know the truth about Trump’s game very soon. Is Trump looking out for our security or is he Russia’s little helper? We will know soon.
Jeff,
Russia inside guy has said that Putin has already won. He says after starting the useless war, being ostracized from the international community, after ruining the economy and taking the freedoms of the Russian people, taking Russia back to the USSR, after being sought after for war crimes, after being under tremendous pressure both inside and outside his country, he has managed to survive and now negotiating with the U.S. president. He has shown to be unshakable and unsinkable.
Trump called Putin. Putin didn’t have to do anything for that. He didn’t have to cease fire. He just sat there waiting for Trump to call.
Trump has accepted Putin as an equal partner.
Putin is sending a clear message that strength rules, dictators don’t get punished.
U.S. has gone from value based negotiations to transaction based negotiations.
He says that Russians have gone from 24 hour a day we hate Americans let’s nuke them messaging to now celebrating that we now have a partner and a friend in America.
He also states that Trump has ended the tax force that was targeting Russian oligarchs giving Putin and his thugs a breather. Letting them catch their breath. Trump also stopped adding new sanctions to Russian oil tanker Shadow Fleet.
I don’t think these points tell us what is happening. Russia needs peace and an end to sanctions. Russia’s economy and infrastructure are in trouble. Trump calling Putin means nothing. Trump is positioned to skewer Putin.
Oh good.
Pete Hegseth Roasted Over ‘Huge F*ck Up’ and Clean Up on Ukraine Negotiations: ‘Amateur Hour
Alex Griffing Feb 13th, 2025, 2:05 pm
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth raised eyebrows on Thursday when he walked back some of his comments on Ukraine from the day prior, specifically ruling out Ukraine joining NATO.
Nick Schifrin, PBS’s foreign affairs and defense correspondent, reported on Hegseth’s comments during a presser at the NATO summit in Brussels. Schifrin wrote on X, “BREAKING: @SecDef walks back his statement yesterday that a negotiated settlement is not likely to end with Ukraine in NATO.” He then quoted Hegseth, a former Fox News morning show host, saying:
These negotiations are led by Donald Trump. Everything is on the table. In his conversations with Vladimir Putin and Zelensky, what he decides to allow or not allow, is at the purview of the leader of the free world–President Trump. So I’m not going to stand at this podium and declare what President Trump will do or won’t do, what will be in or what will be out, what concessions will be made or what concessions are not made.
Hegseth made news on Wednesday by declaring “we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective” and arguing that Ukraine joining NATO was not likely.
Many pundits and observers slammed Hegseth after he walked back the comments, arguing that he had given up leverage to Russia without gaining any concessions.
The National Review’s Mark Antonio Wright shared Schifrin’s post and wrote, “The SECDEF’s not a “realistic outcome” comment on Ukraine and NATO membership was in his prepared remarks. Amateur hour from @PeteHegseth and his staff.”
The Economist’s Shashank Joshi added, “Hegseth’s lack of experience is already showing. Publicly makes a series of pre-emptive concessions prior to the most important negotiations in many years, and then has to publicly explain that he had no authority to say any of those things.”
Former Obama aide and podcaster Tommy Vietor argued, “This was a huge fuckup by Hegseth. There’s no walking back his initial comments that Ukraine won’t join NATO or gain back all the territory lost since 2014. He wrote Putin a big check that has already been cashed. Maybe don’t make an unqualified Fox News host @SecDef?”
President Donald Trump also made headlines this week with comments he made to Fox News saying, “They (Ukraine) may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday.” Trump, however, also promised to keep sending U.S. military aid to Ukraine indefinitely while taking questions in the Oval Office on Thursday.
Below are some additional reactions:
https://www.mediaite.com/news/pete-hegseth-roasted-over-huge-fck-up-and-clean-up-on-ukraine-negotiations-amateur-hour/
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House Republican Hits Back at Pete Hegseth’s Ukraine Statement: ‘There Are Consequences of Rewarding the Invader’
Alex Griffing February 13th, 2025, 11:24 am
https://www.mediaite.com/news/house-republican-hits-back-at-pete-hegseths-ukraine-statement-there-are-consequences-of-rewarding-the-invader/
Pete Hegseth Roasted Over ‘Huge F*ck Up’ and Clean Up on Ukraine Negotiations: ‘Amateur Hour’
Alex Griffing Feb 13th, 2025, 2:05 pm
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth raised eyebrows on Thursday when he walked back some of his comments on Ukraine from the day prior, specifically ruling out Ukraine joining NATO.
Nick Schifrin, PBS’s foreign affairs and defense correspondent, reported on Hegseth’s comments during a presser at the NATO summit in Brussels.
https://www.mediaite.com/news/pete-hegseth-roasted-over-huge-fck-up-and-clean-up-on-ukraine-negotiations-amateur-hour/
________________________
House Republican Hits Back at Pete Hegseth’s Ukraine Statement: ‘There Are Consequences of Rewarding the Invader’:
Alex Griffing Feb 13th, 2025, 11:24 am
https://www.mediaite.com/news/house-republican-hits-back-at-pete-hegseths-ukraine-statement-there-are-consequences-of-rewarding-the-invader/
Also,
If you have time would you read and comment on this piece that Naomi Wolf wrote.
https://open.substack.com/pub/naomiwolf/p/the-sack-of-rome-elon-musks-digital?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=zhi1c
It all sounds problematic.
It sounds bone chilling and horrifying to me. It brings to mind what that little **** Yuval Noah Harari said, we are doing it and there is no way that you can stop us. An explosive cme from the sun doesn’t sound so bad now.
But it is just words. People are so easily convinced by words. Watch and see what he does.
I am praying.
Statesmanship is a game of mixed chance and skill. Machiavelli was right when he said that fortune is a bigger factor, usually, than skill. He said, “It is better to be lucky than good.” Napoleon picked his marshals on the basis of their extraordinary luck. When a combat leader should have died three times over, Napoleon looked at him as blessed by luck. He wanted that guy at his side. Fortune is a big part of things. Trump has good fortune, in so many things. But, when we look at the way he toyed with North Korea’s Kim, and when we saw him in the China trade talks, he was a shark. I was worried about Trump sitting down with Kim. Trump said so many stupid things about liking Kim. It was ridiculous! But what did Trump do? He walked away from Kim, and the fat little psychopath executed his diplomats. If I recall correctly, he executed a deputy foreign minister by having him shot with an anti-aircraft gun. Trump played with Kim the way a cat plays with a mouse. He frightened and puzzled the little rocket man. What did he lose in all that? Nothing. Empty words, and the left lost ground in South Korea at that time. Great instinctive strategy. This is what we have seen from Trump. It does not matter what Trump says about Zelenskyy or Ukraine. It does not matter what Trump knows or does not know about Russian strategy. He paints a picture of being at odds with Ukraine. This is an instinctive false split. Is it not? He just got Ukraine’s resources for America. Do you think he plans on losing those resources? Some of those are in Donbas, which makes me laugh. Trump has a motive to take Donbas from Russia. It really is funny to see. Putin must see it, and that is why the drone hit the Chernobyl containment site. Moscow is not liking the Trump approach. They would not be on a campaign to scare the West into concessions if they were secure in Trump’s compliance. Is it 3D chess on Trump’s part? I say again, no. Trump operates on a much more basic, even primitive, level. He looks at what he can suck out of his opponent. He finds out what you want. That is why he makes provocative statements. He pokes you with bizarre comments. He tests you. He zigs and zags. He contradicts himself. Watch closely. It’s not three dimensional chess. It is not one dimensional chess. It’s a smart kid on the block who teases other kids, and thinks up names for them, and sees how they react, and gets control of the neighborhood gang. It’s a pattern of masculine dominance. He wants to be in control. This is instinctivem, not intellectual. Intellect has a hard time beating strong-willed instinct. Some philosophers have commented on this fact — will and instinct over intellect. And so, in terms of what we are seeing, it is strategy on the basic level. Trump became president twice. He did not achieve this out of stupidity or lack of will power. He achieved this because he has certain onboard equipment, psychologically. It’s not all conscious but instinctual. He has sense, logic, and perception. He sees things other people ignore. As he is older, some of his trick-bag has become conscious. What he says is not what he will do. Look at the party he threw for Xi Jinping at Mar-a-lago in 2017 while he was bombing China’s allies in Syria. I was initially worried about the response. The Russians and Chinese took it. They did nothing. They were totally unprepared. Trump’s timing was impeccable. Please note: Trump is not a morally normal person. He assassinated an Iranian general who was en route to a negotiation. In all history, such an assassination would be considered highly dishonorable. It was a shameful way to kill an enemy. I know many people today do not see this. Trump has no honor. He is entirely modern in this. When people have no honor it means their moral sense is not fully developed. Trump is a very rotten pragmatist. And he is very good at exploiting people who are not paying attention to his deeds as opposed to his words. In other words, Trump is a bad man. He bragged about assassinating that Iranian general. The Iranians are out to assassinate Trump today because of it. They have not forgotten. They really want to kill him. And this is all a game. A very big game, and Trump has been playing this game a long time. Yes, Trump says stupid things. But are they stupid in the light of what he later does? Often his most idiotic statements turn out to have been instinctively the right thing. In strategy games we have to look at the outcomes. Two election victories later…. Trump-watching is not for the faint of heart. We will know by the end of April whether Trump is on the right track for a successful administration. I wrote at the end of April, 2017, that Trump had failed in his first terms. I did not take him seriously. I knew he was not going to build the wall. I knew the left was going to come back strong. He did not go after the leftist positions in the Justice Department and intelligence community. They had him pinned down with the “Russia-Russia-Russia” narrative. Trump was caught in a bad position and unable to play out a domestic strategy. This is how the left kept the upper hand in our domestic police and intelligence agencies. Now we see Trump acting to push them out into the cold. This time we are seeing what Trump should have done then but could not, as the left’s strategy was so clever and unexpected in 2017. The media blitz against Trump was tremendous. Where is it now? He is doing a lot of things right. Let’s not pre-judge him on the basis of his usual immoral, provoking, deceptive, and otherwise clownish statements. Furthermore, Trump has different advisors this time around. I think there are more professional and mature people advising him. Is he failing? Maybe. Let’s wait and see what he does.
Someone told me recently that Trump has said or written that it takes a lot of work to create the persona of a dumb and clueless jerk (my paraphrase). I don’t know if this is true or an urban legend. I hope it’s true.
I wish it were not so complicated. Appearances can be deceiving. Then again, Trump was a reality TV character. When I think of this I feel like vomiting.
Regarding Trump being abnormally lucky, we can’t take it for granted that his luck will never run out, or that fortuitous events will keep intervening to stop his ill-thought attempts at befriending communist adversaries from becoming reality. Napoleon’s luck ran out too, eventually. What if the reason why Trump got to where he is now, is so that he could be in a position to make a truly disastrous decision for the US and the West, one that no ordinary US President, not even a corrupt and compromised Democrat, could ever make. If a country’s leaders appear to be on the wrong course, patriots should speak out before a bad idea becomes fixed policy.
The following are just some off-the-cuff thoughts, but after Trump’s random ‘de-nuking’ comments this week, I wonder. I don’t know how to view the aborted negotiation with North Korea, especially now with Trump floating the idea of nuclear disarmament again. We don’t know everything that happened at the Hanoi Summit, but it seems the N Koreans were too rigid and intransigent, they didn’t know how to play along during the negotiations and they ended up offending Trump. If they had been more willing to make concessions on denuclearization things might have ended differently. Even after Trump walked out on that summit, he and Kim later met along the DMZ and attempts at negotiation between the US and N Korea continued for another year. From what we’ve seen the Russians might prove too smart to make the same kind of mistake. They are very flexible and they could still go back to the well and pull off another Reagan-Gorbachev arms reduction treaty. (Yes, even at this late stage and 3+ years into the Ukraine war, Putin could still portray himself as the new Gorbachev in Trump’s eyes, especially if he starts talking loudly about nuclear disarmament. If Russian officials started telling their American counterparts behind the scenes that Russia’s nuclear sabre-rattling was really a cover for their fear of nuclear weapons, how many of our people would believe that?) And the Russians have not only been buttering up conservatives for years but have managed to get several potentially influential assets within Trump’s inner circle. The N Koreans never had that kind of advantage, nor the kind of soft spot that Trump has shown toward Putin and Russia in general. And then there’s China’s sizable hold on far too many American plutocrats and political figures. We’ll have to wait and see what happens of course. But if China and Russia realize that denuclearization is Trump’s (and the West’s) Achilles heel they might start to seriously put that card in play. It could be the final poison pill for the West. Russia and China could get the economic break they need to launch the all-out attack they’ve been dreaming about for decades.
Oh yes, Napoleon’s luck ran out. I hope my book, the “Origins of the Fourth World War” will not turn out to be prophetic. I’m afraid that the calamity foreseen in that book may now be unavoidable. Trump had better turn on Putin and screw him, otherwise Americans will be dying by the millions.
The George H.W.Bush and the schizophrenic taxi driver were very interesting. Wow!
It was a surrealistic encounter in 1991.
I strongly suggest that if anyone hasn’t listened to the Dynamic Independence round table you should at least listen to the very end when Jeff tells this story.
[…] Click the link […]
Satellite image shows China’s PLA practicing attacks on U.S. electronic warfare aircraft, carriers:
Satellite images obtained last month from western China show the People’s Liberation Army apparently practicing for attacks on U.S. electronic warfare planes and aircraft carriers, according to a private intelligence company. Published February 13, 2025
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/feb/13/satellite-image-shows-china-pla-practicing-attacks/
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China fielding new strategic bombers:
Inside the Ring: China’s military has begun deploying significant numbers of upgraded strategic nuclear bombers that are bolstering Beijing’s triad of weapons, including land-based missiles and nuclear missile submarines, according to U.S. defense officials. Published February 12, 2025
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/feb/12/inside-ring-china-fielding-new-strategic-bombers/
_______________________
Network of China-controlled ports a significant security threat, panel warns:
Military and intelligence operations feared from Beijing-run facilities:
China’s extensive network of commercial ports near the U.S. poses significant security threats, a panel of analysts told a House hearing on Tuesday. Published February 11, 2025
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/feb/11/hill-hearing-explores-network-china-controlled-por/
—————————————————-
Those Chinese bombers are deployable to Russia.
Jeff I just posted the 3 latest articles by Bill Gertz, all involving China, but it did not post on your site; not too thrilled about that.
Must be restricted for some reason.
Trump’s decades-long desire for a nuke-free world hasn’t dissipated one bit. This is very worrying, seeing as how the West only has a limited time to catch up to Russia and China’s nuclear arsenals.
https://x.com/ABC/status/1890134046161662462 Feb 13/25
“There’s no reason for us to be building brand new nuclear weapons. We already have so many you could destroy the world 50 times over, 100 times over.” Pres. Trump said he talked to Russian Pres. Putin about “denuking,” adding the two agreed they would “do it in a very big way.”
And the other shoe drops. Once “we straighten it all out” in the Middle East and Ukraine, Trump will start nuclear arms control talks with Russia and China. The money spent on building nuclear weapons can be used for much more productive things, per Trump.
https://x.com/GordonGChang/status/1890176072840540459
What arms agreement has the Russian Federation ever honored? None. What agreement has Communist China ever honored? None.
https://x.com/kenklippenstein/status/1890167562987556869 Feb 13/25
Trump proposes trilateral agreement with China and Russia to mutually draw down military budgets by 50%
“One of the first meetings I want to have is with president Xi of China, president Putin of Russia. And I want to say, let’s cut our military budget in half.”
Laura: If these kind of talks go forward we won’t have a chance.
We really better hope that Trump is joking then. Or that Russia and China will slip up and show their true face while the West still has a chance.
It’s hard to judge talks of this kind from early off-hand statements. I want to see if anything meaningful happens before the Soviet victory parade in May.
Well, that pretty much shows Trump to be badly informed.
I still think that Trump does have what it takes to swindle the reds, and then this time, when they lie and cheat, Trump may be ready with a way to cause them pain.
The idea of flatly trusting another arms reduction or control treaty with them is so blisteringly vapid, for me it doesn’t fit Trump. I suspect he’s worked out several angles of leverage or screws to turn that will surprise (perhaps black tech boosted even further by Musk and others) (DOGE may partly be a smokescreen covering what’s really being engineered. Trump’s facing the enemy of the world. That’s the real job, and fixing America isn’t possible unless they are stopped. And it’s his time to put a stamp on history and earn that addition to Mount Rushmore. Can his ego and legacy live with less? Go ahead and call me pie in the sky. I think we’re living in a crucial positive moment
Yes, an arms reduction treaty would be blisteringly vapid. But I don’t know if I can credit Trump with being very clever, not based on what we’ve seen so far.
Trump was a big proponent of nuclear disarmament in the 80’s. So much so that at one point he wanted a posting to the USSR to negotiate disarmament. Taken in context with the way he laments too many young men dying in Ukraine, I think his desire to avoid a holocaust-level death toll is genuine –hence his abhorrence of nuclear weapons. Unfortunately he’s going about it the wrong way.
https://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/the_spectator/2016/03/trump_s_nuclear_experience_advice_for_reagan_in_1987.html
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/politics-news/donald-trump-angled-soviet-posting-1980s-says-nobel-prize-winner-1006312/
Trump said many idiotic things in the 1980s. And now he is going back to his old vomit.
Remember what Trump did to little rocket man.
John, I’d like to be able to agree with you, but I just can’t. I just don’t think Trump has the wherewithal to attain to this. It would be nice if I’m wrong, but I don’t believe that I am.
Thanks Laura. I’d further suggest that a matured Trump working not from media-fed information but full Classified awareness and direct exposure to Frank Gaffney and other security Pros is a rather different animal. And again, for him MAGA is the main promise, and it can’t happen unless the reds are defanged across the board. Something that may take generations but has to start somewhere.
Hi Jeffrey Nyquist, I’m sorry for my bad English, I’m Brazilian and I’m using Google Tratudor, I’m a great admirer of your work because I see that you’re in search of the truth, as Professor Olavo de Cavaleiro said. My question is how does Putin manage to eliminate the Russian oligarchs who live in countries as far away from Russia as Spain and France and often kill the oligarch’s family and make the dead oligarch himself guilty of killing his own family and committing suicide? and countries accept that it would supposedly be murder of the family followed by suicide in their studies. Do you know how Russia achieves this? Would it be a secret weapon? a mental manipulation? Another question is how does Putin control his oligarchs even though they keep money in accounts abroad? Putin kills them and then confiscates the money abroad? I saw a comment from a Brazilian conservative saying that Russian oligarchs are probably richer than Forbes billionaires, do you agree with that? Regarding the solar minimum, do you think there will be a global cooling similar to the year 536 after Christ? Thank you for your work, do you accept donations?
Professor Olavo de Carvalho said that if North American sovereignty is destroyed, the other countries will not resist the global government. My country, Brazil does not even offer resistance.
The United States passed a very stupid law focused on punishing Russian oligarchs by confiscating their wealth. This has helped Putin control his oligarchs and prevent capital flight from Russia to the West. The Russians are good at assassinating people — anywhere they please. Drugs and poisons are often used. Boris Berezovsky is a case in point.
So the West should keep welcoming Russian oligarchs and their money just to cause some capital flight out of Russia? Even though most of these people are contracted KGB assets, who serve as conduits for Russia’s high-level influence operations in the West while also helping the Kremlin hide its wealth abroad. And Putin had no trouble controlling his oligarchs before the laws were passed (eg. Khodorkovsky, Berezovsky). Even if a few of them turn defector and give us some useful information, wherever they go, the KGB has no trouble catching up to them an exercising pressure behind the scenes. Europe needs to decouple economically from Russia as much as possible, so welcoming more of them in the West is counterproductive and probably a big political and security risk. Just look at what happened in Britain after the Big Russian money moved in. Does the US and Europe have the resources to vet all these people and their retinues? And what’s to stop these neo-Soviet capitalists in the West from pretending to be anti-Putin while leading naïve Westerners astray? As Ukraine is showing, there are better and less costly ways of hurting Russia’s economy.
I agree. If Russia’s economy is teetering on the brink, and Trump can push it on over the edge, then he can do so while not speaking in ways that are harmful to Ukraine. Words spoken at this level*do* have consequences, and him supposedly playing some kind of elaborate game with some kind of instinctive genius-i don’t believe that for a minute. Russia and China want to destroy us -*will* attempt to do so when they feel the time is right. They currently *are* destroying Ukraine -every single day a little more, and have also been encircling and infiltrating and weakening us for many years. No ambiguity by Trump is going to help Ukraine or America.
Also, Jeff said that while getting all of its territory back is extremely important to Ukraine, it’s not necessarily important to NATO. That Ukraine is needed as a buffer between Europe and Russia.
I’m sure he is speaking from a NATO point of view, but I would like to point out, that is *exactly* what Ukraine is doing now -shedding rivers of blood as a buffer between Russia and Europe. If we don’t throw all possible support -in word and deed- behind them at this hour, then what good is it to have some future,greatly diminished “buffer”.
If I were a Ukrainian , and NATO, America, or anyone else negotiated or forced a “peace” treaty on my nation after we had suffered, lost, and given so much, I would be *damned* if I would ever serve as some kind of buffer between Russia and Europe. This is a very cynical way to look at it. They are serving as that buffer in their fullest capacity *right now!!*
The hour calls for a “Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!” mentality. The odds are against us. Trump can’t out-decieve the master deceivers who have been playing us like a finely tuned fiddle -one they tuned- for decades.
I don’t share the belief that Trumo is working some grand strategy against Russia and China. To me, nothing indicates that. I don’t think he knew and intended the consequences that followed his visit with little Rocket Man, just as Tucker Carlson didn’t realize his interview with Putin would result in Nalvany’s death.
As Jeff says, the next couple months will show, I guess, but I think I’ve seen and heard enough.
I understand Jeff’s point about how regaining every lost Ukrainian territory is not as important as ensuring that Ukraine, in its current de facto borders, remains a strong bulwark against Russian expansion. (Although if there were a feasible way to get Crimea and southern Ukraine back without requiring a huge sacrifice, this would surely be an important strategic victory and a great blow to Russia.) But in that case the US would have to make a serious commitment to Ukraine and make its sovereignty an unambiguous national security priority. The issue can’t remain just a policy choice, ie. we’ll help Ukraine as long as it doesn’t cost too much and as long as the pro-Russia MAGA contingent doesn’t protest too loudly. That will be one of the two key issues in the upcoming negotiation, the other being whether Trump will give Putin a lifeline or find a way to sink Russia’s economy for good. Trump can’t just muddle through and try to please both sides, because, if I’m understanding Jeff’s writings correctly, any help to Russia now could end up being catastrophic.
I get what he’s saying too, but my point is, the past three years have been exactly the point where Ukraine is serving as a strong bulwark. Why should NATO, USA, or whoever be concerned about having Ukraine “remain” a strong bulwark against Russian expansion in the future,if we don’t back them as much as we possibly can when that us exactly what they are doing now???
I’m sorry, but I’ve always had a lot of heart, and that scenario is just a cowardly way for whoever negotiates with Russia to kick the can down the road, yet again…
I am sick and tired of it. These people have suffered rape, torture, and murder for years. They have clawed their way through Russian lies and disinformation to take their country back for themselves.
Here they are, giving everything in serving as a bulwark against Russian expansion *right now.*
I’m certainly never going to be in the position with that weight on my shoulders, but I could not live with myself if I didn’t throw my weight behind Ukraine to whatever extent I could were I president.
No. No. A million times no. I would rather go down fighting. Go down fighting if we must, for it’s too late to rebuild anything. Let’s talk straight, shoot straight, hit hard, and die on our feet if we must, but PLEASE, let’s not ever negotiate with, or appease,or make any deals, or do anything but spit in the Communists’ eyes.
And please, let’s not do as Trump and his people are doing (rhetorically or any other way),and denigrate the nation fighting for its freedom.
It wasn’t too many years ago, that I remember even on what is called evangelical Christian radio,how the Maidan Revolution was being touted as the closest thing to the American War for Independence since our forefathers won our freedom. People were in awe of and strong sympathy with Ukraine.
A wealthy lady here adopted *ten* children from Ukraine, and for awhile after Putin’s invasion was buying personal military gear and arms for people fighting in Ukraine. I had the pleasure of meeting her and talking with her while working on her aged parents’ house last fall. And you know what makes me sick? *She* had finally succumbed to the Russian lies coming through the American Right. She was all about Trump and overturning the damage Biden had done in the past four years. I shared with her several of Jeff’s essays and interviews. I shared Golitsyn’s books with her. I tried to explain what I’ve learned via Jeff and others to her. But, she had made up her mind. I left her presence very disheartened.
People around me -men I would be fighting shoulder to shoulder with if we were invaded- are beginning to think I’m little off kilter for being pro-Ukraine. The confusion is continuing to grow. A man at my church thought I was ridiculous for supporting Ukraine as we discussed it in front of others. Good people are growing more convinced that Ukraine is just as bad as Russia, and *Trump’s foolish jibber-jabber isn’t helping things.*
So see? We’re so screwed up here, I’m sick of kicking the can down the road. I’m weary of putting the day of reckoning far from us. If Trump really understands the situation, then I say he should play the man and let’s quit talking junk.
But, I don’t think he does understand. I’ve never thought he does.
Jeff, if you’re right about him,I’ll gladly eat crow. I know you’re probably right that if he makes the right moves, he can collapse Russia’s economy.
But, I don’t see him currently making the right moves, or foresee it. Nosir, I sure don’t.
P.S., the dear lady was right to want to undo the damage done by Biden, but she had fallen for the “Ukraine is corrupt” BS. I hope she read the links to Nyquist, Loudon, and Contemplative Observer I sent. I hope she’s reading now. I hope she bought and is reading and re-reading Golitsyn’s books. But, I doubt it.
The point is, we might as well support Ukraine all that we can. Even if it provokes Russia/China to do something against us.
There are many Chinese operatives here now. They aren’t going to wait forever anyway. We’re not going to live forever. America and Europe are not going to be stronger for at least quite a number of years, and that is if we all light a fire under our butts.
But, so many want the comfort and security to continue. So many want to jeep riding one gravy train or another. So, if we can convince ourselves that a negotiation with Russia in which that monstrosity gets to keep stolen Ukrainian land,can keep us fat and happy, while we pat ourselves on the back that Ukraine will still be some kind of bulwark or buffer against Russian expansion, well then that’s just what we’ll do.
But, if we pour the support into Ukraine, and sanction the you-know-what out of Russia, and Russia or China take some kind of action against us…well, I do believe that will probably be about the only way we suddenly find the motivation we need.
I love life. I enjoy life. I’m thankful to God for it. But we can’t all die in our sleep at a ripe old age. Many Ukrainians would have loved to do so. And many who are next on the Russian agenda long to do so.
Trump, and anyone else, I don’t care who. If they are in a position of leadership in Western nations, and they understand what’s going on pretty well, then they must play the man. Anything less is utter disgrace at this moment in history.
You won’t have to worry about dying in your sleep. Most of us are going to be mass murdered.
I have intelligence from China which says Trump will sell out Ukraine. I hope this intelligence is wrong. But the news keeps getting worse.
Yes! We must not help Russia, and this is what we have always managed to do. This time it will be fatal. Why? Because Russia has mobilized its war economy, China is halfway to war mobilization, and I doubt they are going to turn back. If we do not stop this in Ukraine, the enemy will deploy all its advantages before we can get our mobilization on the drawing board. I could be wrong, but that is my feeling.
Wow, that must be so disheartening. A lady who once personally supplied Ukraine with weapons has now completely bought into the Russian narrative. The typical Ukraine-related talk from traditionalist conservatives these days is stomach-churning. It’s understandable how, after seeing how much Russia’s lies and disinformation aimed at conservatives has succeeded, one grows exasperated hearing the same junk talk from the man who was elected to fix things. I tend to think the same way. If lies got us into this mess, how are more lies and wishful thinking going to solve anything? If Trump is the Great Disruptor, why is he repeating the same new lies for old? If we are really on the brink, then finally telling the truth and taking a stand makes more sense than trying to play out another failed diplomatic double-game (assuming, of course, that’s what Trump is actually trying to do). The only counter-argument I can think of is that not enough people in the West are ready to hear the brutal truth, so maybe the ‘junk talk’ has to continue for a bit longer? But then again, if American patriots are only going to wake up when the nuclear bombs hits, that could be too late.
Yes!!
The only thing I would say, is that as unready as people in the West are to hear the brutal truth, they will never be more ready unless open, in-your-face hostility from Russia/China occurs. The foolish talk must end (in my estimation.)
And, if it’s too late, then it’s just too late. Something must wake up whoever survives. For many, no doubt it *is* too late.
But the truth must be spoken, at all costs and hazards. No more games. No more elaborate, far-fetched, strategy to justify apparent weakness. This is not the American (or traditional Western) way -to mollycoddle evil or even pretend to.
Strategy is a brutal subject. It is not what we want to be true. We do not have the intelligence or the courage to see our opportunities. So we lose our opportunities. So we are going to fight at a very great disadvantage in a few years. And we will probably lose. I am so sorry. I hope I am wrong.
Well, as I said decades ago, we are living in a shopping mall regime. And so we are.
The clever strategy would be to encourage capital flight from Russia, and oligarch defection. Of course we should not allow Russian companies to function here.
Laura: Obama got Jackson-vanik killed, which really hurt Russian businesses. He replaced Jackson-Vanik with sactions against Russian individuals. This helped Putin control his oligarchs, since they could not move assets outside of Russia or travel safely outside Russia without risk. This is a subtle thing. The Russians manipulated us into sanctioning individuals instead of Russia as a whole. Naturally, we do not want Russian KGB oligarchs running loose in the West. But we would love to have more Boris Berezovskys.
Agreed, the US should never have repealed the Jackson-Vanik amendment for Russia and resumed normal trade relations. Obviously stopping trade with Russia and going after sanctions-breaking companies is much better than going after individuals. But in general I don’t see much to gain in making it easier for Russian oligarchs to move their wealth to the West, except for a few carefully vetted exceptions. And I wonder, have the sanctions against individuals really made a sizable impact in the amount of Russian money and oligarchs in the West? Despite the colorful headlines, I haven’t heard anything about London or other ritzy European capitals experiencing a sudden dearth of rich Russians.
We have helped Putin reduce capital flight from Russia.
Thank you for the explanation. I needed to hear it. I came over from the left 5 years ago after feeling fooled and betrayed and I guess it has made me a bit too vigilant.
Any of these “leaders can betray you.” That’s why the Ukrainians elected a professional clown as their president. To some extent, the people have to be vigilant and stay organized and committed.
Dear Jeff, even more than vigilant. As one man of an uncommon wisdom (and whose name I no longer remember) has said: “The price of freedom is an eternal paranoia. Vigilance is not enough.”
The, so called “Western world” has never been, and still is not, paranoic enough to fully grasp the horrors awaiting us in the near future.
It’s almost beyond our mental ability to stay calm in the face of grotesque meandering played by Trump in his approach to the tragedy of Ukraine, however, we all should follow your advice and maintain cautiousness in final assessment of his policy.
We have also bear in our minds that the main culprits in that tragifarce are the Western “EUROPS” who have for decades been refusing to increase their military spendings, stubbornly, deliberately and in many cases quite spitefully, like Germans, for example, despite Trump’s repeated demands for bigger commitment on their part. It took the horror in Ukraine to begin waking them up from their self-inflicted stupor.
In the light of those facts, Trump’s anger is understandable and to a large degree justifiable and his rhetoric seems to bear fruits.
What bothers me greatly, though, is that Trump seems to be completely oblivious to the vast spectrum of threats posed by the eternal alliance between China, Russia as the main players and North Korea, and other communist regimes, and Islamo-fascists who are playing subservient role in that game.
It’s also, hard to grasp that he is ignorant of the fact that the terrorist act against Israel was perpetrated to draw attention of the “world” from the aggression of Ukraine by the neo-Bolshevik Russia. If he was aware of that obvious fact and, above all, of the PERFIDY 0f Putin, he would certainly know that it is impossible to conduct any meaningful negotiations with his regime.
Hasn’t he or his super rich advisors, got a super-duper computer with this ridiculous, quasi-intellectual construction called “Artificial Intelligence” to their disposal to tell them that?
What about the mortal danger to the entire humanity presented by the expected terrible global cooling caused by the incoming Grand Solar Minimum? Doesn’t he know anything about that? And if he knows “something” why does he remain silent?
We still have time to prepare ourselves for any eventuality and survive.
At least, that deadly serious matter should be investigated thoroughly by most powerful Western minds, and it is his obligation to initiate such an investigation and discussion.
I respect to the subject of GSM I have to laugh, albeit, bitterly as my own effort to raise awareness of our own, seemingly open minded, conservative figures proved to be futile. There still remain few decent, open minded, conservative politicians and journalists in Australia, and I still intend to write few more letter to them. However, the last week we experienced the long heatwave which could suggest that we are returning to the normal Australian Summer, so my suggestions would, probably, raise quite a few eyebrows in disbelief, and I have to wait few weeks more to resume my writing.
Kind regards – Bogdan
Bogdan. I have been accused of doomsaying and paranoia, and despite valiant efforts to be positive, I just spent two hours with a Chinese dissident with two strategy papers out of the CCP. The papers say that Trump will sacrifice Ukraine to win Russia as an ally against China. The CCP is very confident that Russia will remain loyal to Beijing and Trump’s plans will fall to pieces. They then list Trump’s many faults. I will publish on this Sunday.
Dear Jeff, this is a scenario beyond horror. If that happens, we’ll have a right to regard him, even if our opinions will not matter, as someone who from the greatest hero of 21st Century degraded himself into the greatest villain and a complete moron as it will come back to bait him. Trump himself, Musk and others are also examples that the perfect money-spinning machine and otherwise excellent businessman can at the same time be a socio-political imbecile. They all are now descending into the sewer of pure evil.
There is nothing more to add here. We have to wait for Trump’s further moves.
Perhaps, the newly awaken Western “Europs” will realize that they are entirely on their own, massively increase their military spendings and somehow survive.
Regards – Bogdan
Mr. Nyquist,
Your interview of Lee Wheelbarger was very helpful. Your questions for Mr. Wheelbarger brought out a lot of valuable, practical, and essential information useful for grasping the real significance of the Grand Solar Minimum and how solar phenomena affects weather and earthquakes. Your interview brought to mind this interesting, Cautionary Tale depicting how a scientist’s warnings regarding solar phenomena was ridiculed, scoffed at, and rejected.
https://archive.org/details/superman-01x-01-superman-on-earth/Superman+-+01×01+-+Superman+on+Earth.mp4
Yes, the interview was very informative and valuable. I have been trying to find information on the book they mentioned by a Heinrich Fennsmark (sp?). Can you tell me the name of the book if you know it. I want to learn more about this important issue.
Henrik Svensmark — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Svensmark
Mr. Nyquist,
Stephen Kotkin seems to believe that military action is unlikely to persuade Vladimir Putin to cease his aggression against Ukraine and withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine. Therefore Kotkin suggests that President Trump pursue a communications campaign encouraging Russian regime change with Elite Russian Nationalists being the target audience for the communications campaign. Kotkin urges Trump to talk directly to Elite Russian Nationalists to urge them to overthrow Vladimir Putin. Mr. Nyquist do you think that Mr. Kotkin’s suggestions for overthrowing Putin could be successfully implemented?
View the video beginning at the 35min:52 sec mark.
https://www.hoover.org/research/five-questions-stephen-kotkin-advice-new-administration-and-rest-us
Thanks.
Kotkin shares the wrong-headed assumption of many Westerners that the oligarchs have actual power and influence in Russia. As Jeff has explained in previous podcasts, they are not independently wealthy and owe their wealth and status to the KGB and the underground Russian Communist Party. They can be easily bumped off and replaced if they don’t toe the line. I think for meaningful change to take place in Russia, the Putin regime and the entire Soviet state apparatus will have to respectively collapse and be forcibly removed from power. Serious economic collapse might be the trigger for that, but even so, the Soviet Union endured worse economic crises without collapsing. But then again, Putin and his ilk are not exactly of the same caliber as past Soviet leaders, so maybe it could happen. The West will have to enforce harsh economic measures against Russia, not pursue new elite-level talks as Kotkin proposes.
Kotkin had one really brilliant insight about Stalin, who tread downhill from there. His volume 3 promises something tantalizing — but even he does not understand the importance of his discoveries. These scholars do not understand strategy. It makes their overall analysis weak. It’s disappointing.
The paradox is that a clown seems to be better as a president than a professional.
Concerning Trump, I’ve got the feeling that is a kind of Pétain. He must be very stupid to believe that Poutine will betray his friend Xi. Those 2 mad guys are like twins.
lol
Wow, this is really scary. But very plausible given Russia’s designs on Germany and its long history in Afghanistan.
https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1890367591392137278 Feb 14/25
“Russian military intelligence GRU has reportedly tunnelled their agents, Afghan nationals, into Germany, as “refugees”. Is anyone surprised that we have several brutal terrorist attacks by Afghan nationals just weeks before elections? Russia is evil.”
Looking at the German electoral map, it’s hard to get away from the fact that the AfD is really an East German party. Their support is wholly concentrated in the former DDR, with the conservative CDU having overwhelming popular support in the rest of Germany.
And here was JD Vance in Munich today, telling Europe that its biggest threat is not Russia but censorship of Russian attempts at electoral interference, that is, parties like the AfD and Georgescu’s movement in Romania. It was nice of Russia to emphasize the point by hitting the Chernobyl containment structure within a few hours of Vance’s speech.
https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1890434563337322569
“Russia should infiltrate the West with “Southerners” migrants, who will commit terrorist attacks on schools & hospitals, kill children, igniting total disruption and rise of far rights, advised Russian Neonazi Kalashnikov in his 2007 “Baptisms by Fire” book. He advised Medvedev.”
Vance’s speech angered me. “Tge biggest threat to Europe is not Russia and China,”
Somebody sit him in the corner and give him a coloring book.
I suggest a coloring book about the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny.
“J. R. NYQUIST – DEUTSCHE AUSGABE” (seit 2014): Der Vergleich macht Sie sicher …
“Rußlands heimliche Teilhaber – Geopolitik als Fassade für das alte Spiel Roter Revolution”
https://jrnyquistdeutsch.wordpress.com/2025/02/15/ruslands-heimliche-teilhaber-geopolitik-als-fassade-fur-das-alte-spiel-roter-revolution/
About the extract text of Dugin on che Guevara, of course, he doesn’t go to the essential because he disguises the truth. But the example of Che Guevara becoming an idol for the petit bourgeois youth is exactly the disguise of Communism adopted by brain washed people in our countries. Communists did a very good marketing, they transform a communist terrorist in an harmless idole for the western youth. And they repeated the recipe again and again. And it has worked until now!
I think western world failed in two essential points:
– marketing
– ecology.
Ecology? You mean falling for the Communist made-up “environmentalist crises” agenda -right?
Very true.
Jake Broe, after a withering takedown of Trump, takes note of this comment, which could easily be overlooked: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqdtHl9koIQ. Start at about 18:48. He concludes that Trump intends to continue to supply Ukraine but sort of on the QT, given the opposition of a good chunk of MAGA. As for “where’s Kellogg,” he has been in Munich, tasked with working the Ukrainian side. For example, this: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3960059-yermak-kellogg-meet-in-munich.html.
Yes. This is the thing. Trump’s policy is not straightforward. Everyone wants to underestimate the narcissistic clown. But, is he really a clown?
While I don’t agree with everything that Catherine says I agree that something is going down and it very well could be something sinister. This reset is something that we have to be very vigilant about.
https://open.substack.com/pub/solarireport/p/the-new-tools-of-multipolar-empire?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=zhi1c
All these nuances, with the expectation of a world war, do not mean what we might think. Do we realize what the world may be on the brink of? Privacy compromised, as a bad thing, vs. billions exterminated? I am ambivalent. I confess.
I am coming toward the realization Trump will lean heavily in favor of the Kremlin/Putin/Russia and the Ukrainian people will be left wanting after suffering being invaded and the U.S. failing to hold up our end of the Budapest Agreement.
Trump is being led by the opinions of pro Russia advisors and media personalities like (T Carlson) right here. Very troubling. And now we have Tulsi G. in charge of our own national security…
The ugly side of MAGA seems to stink the whole.
I listened to Jake Broe and didn’t agree with things that he said but what I did agree on was how disrespectful Elon Musk was showing up to the oval office conference in a t-shirt and jacket when protocol is a suit and tie. Also, Elon brought his 4 year old son along. I love kids but they don’t belong at a conference in the oval office. This may sound petty to some but I don’t think so. Jake predicts that either Elon or Trump will be assassinated in 2026 because there isn’t room for both of those very large egos. I thought that that was an interesting prediction.
Between Trump and Musk, I think Musk has the bigger ego, if that’s even possible. In a way he’s worse because he has no respect or reverence for the office of a U.S. institution that has endured for over 200 years. The stories about his DOGE whiz kids running amok are not encouraging.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-07/musk-s-doge-teen-was-fired-by-cybersecurity-firm-for-leaking-company-secrets?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTczODk1NzgyMSwiZXhwIjoxNzM5NTYyNjIxLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTUkJXMTlUMVVNMFcwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIyQjE3NzFFOTlEODc0QzRDOTY1Njg1RTZBQkJGM0QwRCJ9.PzPv9vq6-ukfVt3y5WF0PBy_lGW7WBwsNaXdP8fUOSo&leadSource=uverify%20wall
Two egos as empty spaces swept by a howling wind.
Is Broe suggesting that Trump or Musk will off each other? Or is it Russians? Do you still think that helicopter that crashed into that plane a few weeks ago was Russians still? I think Bries prediction and reasoning are wild speculation in line with yours from weeks ago.
bedlamsbard1- Jake didn’t elaborate on how he thinks it would happen. I do not think he was implying it would be Russia and I wasn’t thinking that either.
I have no idea how the plane went down but I have learned that Russia likes to crash planes. I do not think that my speculations are wild. If you do not like what I write then stop reading my comments. You are very rude and aggressive.
These two defy augury.
Mr. Nyquist what do you make of this video debate between Cliff Kincaid and our friend Victor Rud? The question under consideration is whether President Trump should Cut and Run away from supporting Ukraine or whether Trump should strengthen Ukraine in repelling Russian Aggression.
https://rumble.com/v6khi6y-was-trump-a-russian-agent-all-along.html#comment-568095331
I am entirely on the side of Victor. Cliff is sounding like an economist counting pennies.
https://open.substack.com/pub/daryazorka/p/dont-give-up-on-ukraine?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2jewlq
I like to read this lady’s substack essays. She is a Belorusian with a Ukrainian husband. They live in America. Of course, she doesn’t understand those of us who truly are Conservatives in America, and why we had no choice but to vote for Trump, so she more or less holds us in contempt. But, I still like reading what she writes. I have felt in my gut that most Ukranians must feel the way she relates here. I know I wouldn’t give a rat’s butt what any outsiders wanted us to do if I were in their shoes.
I feel for Darya and the Ukrainian fighters. It is heartbreaking. The Ukrainians, in fighting for their freedom, were shielding us. And we wasted the opportunity. We could have crippled Russia, and gotten the upper hand against China. But our leaders have no vision. They are blind. God only knows the horrific price we will pay.
Question: During the swearing in of Tulsi Gabbard, as DNI, she was administered the oath by AG Pam Bondi, who plainly asks her to place her left hand on the Constitution, which is a rather small document…so what was the book she put her hand on? Was this actually a Hindu holy book?
I would think it is,judging from what Kincaid and Loudon have revealed about her devotion to Hinduism.
Yes.