Afghanistan: Act 2 of the Bug-Out Scandal

Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.

Alexander Pope, Letter to John Gay
6 October 1727

The day before yesterday Joe Biden said, “Last night in Kabul, the United States ended twenty years of war in Afghanistan; the longest war in American history. We completed one of the biggest airlifts in history, with more than 120,000 people evacuated to safety. That number is more than double what most experts thought were possible.”

That number is quadruple what some people are saying actually got to safety. Everyone does not agree with Biden’s numbers. But there Biden stood, nonetheless, on Monday, telling us that “no nation has ever done anything like it in all of history. Only the United States had the capacity and the will and the ability to do it….” He said that “the assumption that the Afghan government would be able to hold on [with all the training and money we poured into them] … turned out not to be accurate.”

Biden said the Taliban had promised to allow free passage for Americans out of the country. He spoke of overland routes out of the country. “The Taliban has made public commitments on safe passage for anyone to leave including those who worked alongside Americans.” Since the Taliban has already been executing Afghans who worked with America, Biden’s trustful stance seems unrealistic. “I take responsibility for this,” said Biden. Then he added, “My predecessor made a deal with the Taliban.”

Why not compare what Biden said on Monday with what someone directly involved with the evacuation has to say. What follows was written by an anonymous intelligence source.

Anonymous Offers Different Assessment

Much of the official narrative regarding the recent withdrawal from Afghanistan is untrue. The U.S. Government says it evacuated some 120,000 people — “the largest airlift ever” — from the Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA). But the various databases that logged the data suggest that the real number is closer to 30,000. That leaves a lot of affiliates and others scratching their heads wondering what the 90,000-person discrepancy will be used for, other than to try to appease the angry American veterans, and the patriotic public.

We are looking at a phenomenon that might be called human laundering, analagous to money laundering. Where the latter refers to making illicit funds appear to have a legitimate source; the former might have been arranged to make questionable foreign entry appear valid. US officials are now poised to human launder some 90,000 people — people they can claim to have airlifted out of Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA), and who they can now legitimize and resettle in selected locations, without the American public ever being the wiser.  

Put another way, if we define human laundering as the reclassification, by database manipulation (or insertion), of a person’s nationality, race, gender, and other identifying characteristics, to make it appear they are immigrating from a known source, then, presto, government officials now have 90,000 opportunities to bring people of their own choosing through our immigration system and resettle them wherever they please, and for their own political purposes, no questions asked

Think of  90,000 people from the South Pole being resettled as Afghan refugees in Texas. Much like the Federal Reserve’s ability to create money with the stroke of a key, someone now was the ability to make 90,000 people into legitimate and documented refugees from Afghanistan, without the cumbersome and expensive process associated with legitimizing those that come across our boarders illegally.

At present, various government entities are actively consolidating the databases kept by NGOs (and others) during the two weeks of airlift activity from Kabul. Once they do, I predict we will see a national security classification requirement attached to that data, so that no reporter or other member of the public will ever see it again. 

For the doubters out there, please consider the following: Many non-government individuals were involved in evacuating the known 30,000 people from HKIA. These individuals are aware that the majority of this 30,000 had to be vetted, deconflicted, and allowed though the HKIA gate. This process, which was database driven, was even applied to the brave few who scaled the airport walls to get in (with the help of courageous Marines). And there is the inconvenient fact that the databases that were employed were built, implemented and propagated with the blessing of the U.S. Government, but out of the Government’s immediate control. And of course, if you have been to HKIA you would be aware of the limitations of the infrastructure that could not possibly process 120,000 during the period in question.

Furthermore, legions of planes departed HKIA with partial loads and in many cases no loads. If you are skeptical, watch for the coming litigation from aggrieved donor entities that paid for those empty planes. Dozens of NGO-affiliated people received literally scores of texts from aircraft on the ground at HKIA pleading for more bodies to fill their planes.  And no, despite the contrary reporting of the media, there was no “secret” gate through which thousands of Afghans magically entered the airfield, boarded planes and flew off into the sunset.  There was only the Santa Cruz gate where a relatively small number of targeted evacuees were allowed entry.

Now that we are witnessing a full-court press to aggregate these database(s) under the national security umbrella, they will disappear from all and any scrutiny. Only yesterday, one of these large databases, with (let us say) 7000 records, was shared with government officials, ostensibly to support an effort to determine the number of Americans who remain unaccounted for. I have my own estimate of that number (based on the evaluation of the actual data) but out of respect for the few vestiges of operational security remaining around this debacle, I will not disclose it now.

For the benefit of those with a statistical background, we know that all of the data sets tell basically the same (or close to the same) story. While the individual names are different, the layout of the types of individuals, within those data sets, are about the same.

For every American citizen (“AMCIT”) who was airlifted, we have an equal number of, or even fewer, special immigrant visa-holders (“SIV”).  For every one AMCIT or SIV, however, we are seeing about nine (9) Afghan nationals. Thus the data overwhelmingly swings toward the everyday Afghan national who possesses no special credentials. 

If we take a step back and view these datasets relationally, we see that both individually and collectively they convey to us the same nine-to-one breakdown, namely, about nine Afghan nationals are in the databases per every one credentialed evacuee (AMCIT or SIV). 

In their current decentralized form, one can visualize all those datasets as being a blockchain or hyper-ledger. Every entry is a decentralized copy of the original dataset. The redundancy and decentralized nature of the information in separate datasets tells a story that can be validated by all of the information put together. But even if we don’t have access to some future combined “hyper-ledger” we can look at those datasets in a decentralized way and conclude that the story is uniform.

If the majority of the datasets are gathered together, however, a new storyteller would be able to gain consensus as a result of controlling the majority of the data entries from a single point.  Were that to happen, i.e., if the individual datasets all get thrown into one single location, then the owner of that new consensus data can tell you it reflects almost anything. This is because any remaining single dataset that tells a different story will now be so small in comparison to the consensus set as to be inconsequential.

All of this may be long winded, but it is an important exercise designed to highlight key points. In our specific and very important case, we are making a claim by using the datasets to extrapolate the number of Americans that were NOT recovered and the number of Afghans that were NOT relocated.  In summary, not only do we know that the USG’s published numbers are incorrect from an operational standpoint, but we also know this is so from a stastistical standpoint, based on an examination of the un-manipulated individual datasets. The statistics bear out as true, even in the numbers from the White House. Anyone can see that there is a 9:1 (or more) data set in favor of Afghan nationals compared to American citizens; they are saying it themselves. But if the stated number of AMCIT evacuees is wrong because it is too high, then how much bigger is the dataset consisting of Afghan nationals? And where do those individuals come from to make up the difference? Which brings us back to the human laundering presupposition.

There is more that is not as it seems. There is more to the Afghan airlift story than meets the eye.  In a future posting, I hope to describe the incredible efforts of the unsung heroes within this saga as well as those that deserve disdain.

Related Reporting

Department of Defense Twitter: Gen. McKenzie: In total, U.S. military and coalition aircraft combined to evacuate more than 123,000 civilians, which were all enabled by U.S. military service members, who were securing and operating the airfield.  August 30, 2021


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